Projected end of season table

[munksyb]

9 home games left
Win 8
Job done

 

[ISZA ⚔️]

The problem with this table is it doesn’t take in future form. The tables would be pretty boring if constantly based on recent form.

 

[manxblade]

That means by the time we play burnley we are already promoted I think

 

[Scarebus]

Id quite like Burnley to get 107 points, just to strip Reading of their only record.

 

[SuperSonicBlade89]

Screw 2nd place, we need a Championship!
Always 2nd best, it really irks me.
But to finish way higher than Norwich would be a big plus, considering the rivalry over the last few seasons.

Think the play off positions will be tighter on points, like it is now.

Don't think Rotherham will go down either.

 

[dsr-burnley]

I can't see Burnley getting that many points. They can't possibly ride their luck (including massively outperforming their XG) for 46 games can they...!?

Bearing in mind how expected goals work, I think we can. For example, Tella ran onto a through ball yesterday, outpaced the defender, took it into the area, scored. Expected goal = 3%. How can a one-on-one from the edge of the area, be only a 3% chance? Against Birmingham he had a similar one-on-one, more central, but from outside the box. That was 52%. That's one of many absurdities of the system.

 

[Charlieblade]

We can afford to lose a few and draw a few. The others can’t.

If only it were that simple!

 

[Champagneblade]

I'd still be very surprised if any of the chasing pack get up to 80 points.

Not only will the play off contenders be starting their preparation late as usual, they will be woefully worse that the automatic teams.

Of you take form out of it and just look at PPG over, let's face it, a decent sample size, we'd be on for 93-94 points, whilst Watford are on for not even 72-73 points. At our current tracking rate we'd have that in the bag by game 36.

I'm sure there will be a few twists and turns but who wouldn't have taken this back in August?

Typical Blades though, we see Wednesday open up a 7 point gap on Ipswich with two of their next three being Plymouth and Ipswich and still think "that's them up". We see us having a 13 point gap and think "I'm not celebrating until it's mathematically impossible not to be caught. I don't want to jinx it!"

 

[Oohaah! Bob Bookah!]

Copied from Twatter (I didn’t want to claim this stat)

3rd-placed #WatfordFC are closer to yesterday's opponents, 20th-placed #RUFC, in the Championship table, than they are to 2nd-placed #SUFC. That's how far clear the top 2 are. Rotherham to Watford: -13pts, -12GD; Watford to Sheffield United: -13pts -19GD. Automatic has gone.

 

[brownblade]

Typical Blades though, we see Wednesday open up a 7 point gap on Ipswich with two of their next three being Plymouth and Ipswich and still think "that's them up". We see us having a 13 point gap and think "I'm not celebrating until it's mathematically impossible not to be caught. I don't want to jinx it!"

Who? In what league now?

 

[Tony Currie]

I think somewhere between 81-83 points is enough for second spot.

Edit: just checked 2019-2020 WBA finished 2nd on 83 points, I think this season will be similar.

Yes we only need 1.5 point average in the games left.

 

[MunXy]

Working on the tried and tested 2 points per game, the teams below us will get,IF THEY GET THE 2 per game.
We are looking at around the 81 points mark, so we need 8 wins from the final 18 games, superior GD will I think make the difference.
Points against those around us, even draws will be huge, and I think such as Watford have all of the other top 6 to play, so they will struggle to catch us.

 

[Nick Jansky]

I don’t see the Rotherham team with a bright young manager and who stuffed Blackburn last week and were unlucky to only get a draw at Watford yesterday going down.

 

[Shakespeare blade]

Sunderland currently beating Boro, also Boro down to 10 men, this agin helps our position

 

[Nicesheffielder]

I don't think Burnley are 10 points better than us

 

[coaxingstar71]

This League is so ridiculous this season that Rotherham have still got one eye on the play-offs.

 

[Need4speed]

Middlesborough losing to Sunderland - another good result for us Watford Middlesborough next Saturday as both are out of the cup

 

[Chief_Froley]

Even if we fall much shorter of that projection the position we've found ourselves in makes it a tall order for any of the chasing pack. I had a conservative prediction our last fixtures and landed on 27 points (average of 1.5 points per game). Getting on just that would mean Watford have to get an average of 2.22 points per game just to match us.

Even if we take an even sharper dip than that and average just 1 point per game (relegation form that would see us end up on 75 points by season end) Watford would have to average 1.72 points per game which is more than the 1.57 they are currently averaging.

Obviously things aren't as cut and dry as that and I certainly don't think 75 points would see us up but it goes some way in showing how big a balls up would be needed on our part for the chasing pack to catch up.

 

[bladesmanluke]

This League is so ridiculous this season that Rotherham have still got one eye on the play-offs.

Would love them to make the top 6 after the favours they've done us recently, but their only slip up onroute can be the next game

 

[Newbury Blade]

Given the run of games coming up for us, it’s likely that we will slow up a bit soon.

If WBA and Boro keep it up, there’s plenty of time for the bedwetters to have their moment.

As has been said before, we play better against good teams. The last to beat us were Rotherham. There’s nothing to fear from the “run of games coming up”.

 

[alcoblade]

As has been said before, we play better against good teams. The last to beat us were Rotherham. There’s nothing to fear from the “run of games coming up”.

I certainly don’t fear it, but just don’t expect a similar points per game in the next ten as the last ten. That’s also partly based on is not playing so well and grinding out results. That said, McBurnie’s return may negate that.

 

[reedy63]

I am sure Hecky and the players will take it one game at a time.Rotherham away next league game.

 

[Newbury Blade]

As has been said before, we play better against good teams. The last to beat us were Rotherham. There’s nothing to fear from the “run of games coming up”.

(Apart from Rotherham away!)

 

[reedy63]

Keep up our form we will be promoted. first place or second will do me. as long as we go up.
keep our brilliant run going we could be up by easter.

 

[reedy63]

I don,t think we will play as poorly as we did in the home game v Rotherham.

 

[JayGreen17]

Norwich will be pushing us, I think it will be closer to 2nd and 3rd than it is now.

 

[Chief_Froley]

Norwich will be pushing us, I think it will be closer to 2nd and 3rd than it is now.

Whilst I agree in thinking it will get smaller, I still think there's a bit too big a gap at this stage. Norwich are currently on 1.5 points per game average. If we suddenly find ourselves in relegation form and only get 1 point per game for our remaining fixtures we'll find ourselves at 75 points. Just to reach that Norwich will need to up their average to 1.83 points per game. 2 points per game (promotion form) would mean they only get to 78 points which is just 7 wins for us.

As other have said 8 wins should get us beyond everyone.

 

[Menage a petit pois]

Burnley away @ delias 6-fingered brethren same week we play rovrum.... Has anyone considered that Burnley are and can continue to give us a massive leg up???

 

[Sneinton Blade 1952]

I'm sensing we'll have 84 points going into the last game of the season - where Khadra is bound by providence to score an 89th minute winning goal for Brum. So is 84 points enough for automatic promotion?

 

[tomtheblade]

Was taking a sneaky look at the Watford forum the other night and one of them mentioned that the 44 points they've accumulated so far would have them outside the play off positions in any recent season (at this stage) yet has placed them third in this.

I think this shows that below the top 2 there's not enough consistent quality, hence the gap we're benefitting from.