ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
Chart 1 shows the tables and results for all Top 4 teams after 36 games. I still think Weeds will take the title, as they have the easiest run-in from a leading position – but, as we all just saw, the pressure of leading can create surprising results as the finishing line approaches.
Chart 1:
Graph 1 trackss the season-long points of all of the Top 4 after Matchday 36 and illustrates the point that Sunlan would need 2 of the top 3 to slip up significantly, which is unlikely, so our current focus is on Burmley and maybe even Leeds now – although I still have them on 102-104!
Graph 1:
Chart 2 shows the games that we and Burnley have to come – along with a prediction of the points that I think each team might get in each of those 20 matches. I have tried to be realistic for both teams, rather than optimistic, and my forecast remains at Blades 96 - Burnley 94.
I’m not including Leeds in this comparison just yet, as I think they’ll react very strongly on Wednesday night and beyond, although Millwall are hardly their favourite opponents this season!! (I'm ready to bring Leeds into the comparison if they slip up again though!)
Chart 2:
Graph 2 illustrates all of the Blades and Burnley results so far, and includes forecast lines based on my forecasts from Chart 2. In this scenario we end where we are now, with a 2-point margin, but basically, at the moment, it is still too close to call.
Graph 2:
On a different tack - regarding promotion to and relegation from the Premier League, it is clear that each year there is a group of financially strong Championship teams – mainly parachute teams - who are creating a gap to the rest of the league, and raising the points bar for the top 2. However, Chart 3 shows an interesting equivalent trend at the bottom of the Premier League.
Single year plots tend to be a bit too chaotic to pick out trends, but 4 or 5 year averages tend to bring them out. Chart 3 shows 5-year averages for 17th place and 1 point above 18th place in the Premier League. There is a clear trend for a significant gap developing between the top17 and bottom 3 – if positions don’t change, next year will be the 4th season in a row that the same top17 have been in the Premier League – in fact the last season when any of them were relegated was Fulham in 2020/21 and they were immediately back after winning the Championship in 2021/22.
Chart 3:
It seems that the current system is slowly creating a “fixed” 17 Premier League teams and then a group of six or seven other teams that occupy the bottom 3 Premier League places but dominate the Championship. Obviously, this is a moving feast, but the trend is certainly becoming increasingly evident at the moment. It means that for a promoted team to aim to stay in The Premier League they need to be targeting recent 17th placed points, and not 1 above 18th.
Anyway, let’s leave dreaming of joining the “Elite 17” for now and think about Bristol City. I always feel worried by them, since they were one of only two teams to do the double over us in Wilder’s 18/19 promotion season. Weimann’s hat trick at Bramall Lane to beat us 3-2 at the end of March was really painful at the time. He’s at Blackburn now – our last game of the season!!
Bristol City have scored 20 goals in 18 away games with an XG of 21.4 and conceded 25 with an XGA of 23.1 Blades have scored 26 goals in 18 home games with an XG of 27.5 and conceded 13 with an XGA of 17. Stats would imply 1-0 Blades, with 1-1 and 2-1 Blades as next most likely results.
Let’s hope the Robins come to the Lane and get well and truly Plucked!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
Chart 1:
Graph 1 trackss the season-long points of all of the Top 4 after Matchday 36 and illustrates the point that Sunlan would need 2 of the top 3 to slip up significantly, which is unlikely, so our current focus is on Burmley and maybe even Leeds now – although I still have them on 102-104!
Graph 1:
Chart 2 shows the games that we and Burnley have to come – along with a prediction of the points that I think each team might get in each of those 20 matches. I have tried to be realistic for both teams, rather than optimistic, and my forecast remains at Blades 96 - Burnley 94.
I’m not including Leeds in this comparison just yet, as I think they’ll react very strongly on Wednesday night and beyond, although Millwall are hardly their favourite opponents this season!! (I'm ready to bring Leeds into the comparison if they slip up again though!)
Chart 2:
Graph 2 illustrates all of the Blades and Burnley results so far, and includes forecast lines based on my forecasts from Chart 2. In this scenario we end where we are now, with a 2-point margin, but basically, at the moment, it is still too close to call.
Graph 2:
On a different tack - regarding promotion to and relegation from the Premier League, it is clear that each year there is a group of financially strong Championship teams – mainly parachute teams - who are creating a gap to the rest of the league, and raising the points bar for the top 2. However, Chart 3 shows an interesting equivalent trend at the bottom of the Premier League.
Single year plots tend to be a bit too chaotic to pick out trends, but 4 or 5 year averages tend to bring them out. Chart 3 shows 5-year averages for 17th place and 1 point above 18th place in the Premier League. There is a clear trend for a significant gap developing between the top17 and bottom 3 – if positions don’t change, next year will be the 4th season in a row that the same top17 have been in the Premier League – in fact the last season when any of them were relegated was Fulham in 2020/21 and they were immediately back after winning the Championship in 2021/22.
Chart 3:
It seems that the current system is slowly creating a “fixed” 17 Premier League teams and then a group of six or seven other teams that occupy the bottom 3 Premier League places but dominate the Championship. Obviously, this is a moving feast, but the trend is certainly becoming increasingly evident at the moment. It means that for a promoted team to aim to stay in The Premier League they need to be targeting recent 17th placed points, and not 1 above 18th.
Anyway, let’s leave dreaming of joining the “Elite 17” for now and think about Bristol City. I always feel worried by them, since they were one of only two teams to do the double over us in Wilder’s 18/19 promotion season. Weimann’s hat trick at Bramall Lane to beat us 3-2 at the end of March was really painful at the time. He’s at Blackburn now – our last game of the season!!
Bristol City have scored 20 goals in 18 away games with an XG of 21.4 and conceded 25 with an XGA of 23.1 Blades have scored 26 goals in 18 home games with an XG of 27.5 and conceded 13 with an XGA of 17. Stats would imply 1-0 Blades, with 1-1 and 2-1 Blades as next most likely results.
Let’s hope the Robins come to the Lane and get well and truly Plucked!
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
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