Pathway to the Playoffs

[SUFCScorecard]

Getting to the playoffs is going to be really difficult and will be a huge achievement for Wilder - up there with his best at the club. Looking at the fixtures for the remainder of the season this is what I see as our path.

My assumption that we will need 74 pts (1.61pts/Game) to have a chance of play off. 74pts was good enough 5 of the last 10 seasons including the last 3. Watford in 6th, however, are earning enough pts per game for 75pts.

To get to 74 pts we need 42 pts out of 21 games (2pts/game which is the same as last season 92pts over a whole season)

Here is the path as I see it:

6W1D (2.71pts/Game) - 19pts
Home: Oxford**, Wednesday, West Brom, Swansea, Blackburn
Away: Charlton, Portsmouth

3W1D1L (2pts/Game) - 10pts
Home: Boro, Wrexham, Hull, Preston*
Away: Derby

2W1D1L (1.75pts/Game) - 7pts
Away: Southampton, Millwall, QPR*, Birmingham

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts
Home: Ipswich*, Coventry*
Away: Norwich*, Watford, Bristol*

* Games will be played after 3 day break
** Most likely rearranged to Feb 3 or Feb 14, if rearranged to Feb 3 will be played after 3 day break.

Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)

Feb: 13pts from 6 games (2.17pts/Game - 4W1D1L)
OXF (H)**, MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)

March: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)


Its going to be really difficult to achieve this, and I don't have high confidence that we will. If we get behind this schedule, its going to be really difficult to get back on it, with very little room for error. We may not break into the the top 6 even until April even on this schedule.

 

[SwitchBLADE Smiles]

Ultimately, as much as we can look to seasons gone and how many points we would theoretically need to attain a 6th placed finish, we also need to understand that there are currently 10 other teams who are in a better position than we are, also looking to get the same result.

It’s nice to think about and be hopefully for but despite how nice it is to currently have a Sheffield United team that are looking to go out and thrash sides every week, our actual chances of sneaking into the play offs are very slim. All the club can do is continue to put points on the board and hope that we’re somehow better than at least 10 other clubs between now and May.

1 game at a time kids.

 

[I should coco]

Getting to the playoffs is going to be really difficult and will be a huge achievement for Wilder - up there with his best at the club. Looking at the fixtures for the remainder of the season this is what I see as our path.

My assumption that we will need 74 pts (1.61pts/Game) to have a chance of play off. 74pts was good enough 5 of the last 10 seasons including the last 3. Watford in 6th, however, are earning enough pts per game for 75pts.

To get to 74 pts we need 42 pts out of 21 games (2pts/game which is the same as last season 92pts over a whole season)

Here is the path as I see it:

6W1D (2.71pts/Game) - 19pts
Home: Oxford**, Wednesday, West Brom, Swansea, Blackburn
Away: Charlton, Portsmouth

3W1D1L (2pts/Game) - 10pts
Home: Boro, Wrexham, Hull, Preston*
Away: Derby

2W1D1L (1.75pts/Game) - 7pts
Away: Southampton, Millwall, QPR*, Birmingham

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts
Home: Ipswich*, Coventry*
Away: Norwich*, Watford, Bristol*

* Games will be played after 3 day break
** Most likely rearranged to Feb 3 or Feb 14, if rearranged to Feb 3 will be played after 3 day break.

Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)

Feb: 13pts from 6 games (2.17pts/Game - 4W1D1L)
OXF (H)**, MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)

March: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)


Its going to be really difficult to achieve this, and I don't have high confidence that we will. If we get behind this schedule, its going to be really difficult to get back on it, with very little room for error. We may not break into the the top 6 even until April even on this schedule.

One man's 'path', is another's impassible mountain track.
Sure footed goats, sturdy Sherpas and Hanibal's elephants, will be needed for us to make the play offs.

 

[JayGreen17]

I preferred the post with the bottles, weerz it gone?

 

[DifferentClass]

If we mek playoffs I'll streak onto the (hopefully not frozen) pitch during a match wearing nowt but a Barry Bannan mask and wank into the centre circle.

 

[raimond]

Here's the path as I see it...try and win and shit. Repeatedly. See what happens.

 

[Snowflake]

If we mek playoffs I'll streak onto the (hopefully not frozen) pitch during a match wearing nowt but a Barry Bannan mask and wank into the centre circle.

Sadly this vision has made me hope we come 7th

 

[knowsnowt]

If we mek playoffs I'll streak onto the (hopefully not frozen) pitch during a match wearing nowt but a Barry Bannan mask and wank into the centre circle.

Uncle Susan says she will match that if you take him for a pint after.

 

[BazWainwright]

And we make the playoffs.

Then what? History tells me we bottle it.

 

[Kenilworth]

If we mek playoffs I'll streak onto the (hopefully not frozen) pitch during a match wearing nowt but a Barry Bannan mask and wank into the centre circle.

Bookmarked

 

[Zero dark thirty]

If we mek playoffs I'll streak onto the (hopefully not frozen) pitch during a match wearing nowt but a Barry Bannan mask and wank into the centre circle.

If you bring Gemma Atkinson then im with you

 

[nopigfansintown]

Win the next ten then reassess.

 

[djbaldken]

Sadly this vision has made me hope we come 7th

Sadly this vision will make sure I never come again!

 

[Selly]

Win the next ten then reassess.

Win the next 10 and I'd expect us to be in the automatic promotion race (albeit 5-6 points behind)

 

[LBA_Blade]

One man's 'path', is another's impassible mountain track.
Sure footed goats, sturdy Sherpas and Hanibal's elephants, will be needed for us to make the play offs.

Somebody got an inspirational quote fridge magnet for Christmas!

 

[mattbianco1]

Just found this thread. Great work SUFCScorecard

Winning yesterday makes the loss at Southampton even more disappointing. I can accept the Charlton defeat as one of those freak results. Southampton was a shocker.

We are currently 9pts off POs with a game in hand. Should be 6pts with a game in hand which would have us right in the mix.

Follow up with a shock victory Saturday and we will all be dreaming again.
Expect zero points though, especially without Bamford.

 

[SUFCScorecard]

Just found this thread. Great work SUFCScorecard

Winning yesterday makes the loss at Southampton even more disappointing. I can accept the Charlton defeat as one of those freak results. Southampton was a shocker.

We are currently 9pts off POs with a game in hand. Should be 6pts with a game in hand which would have us right in the mix.

Follow up with a shock victory Saturday and we will all be dreaming again.
Expect zero points though, especially without Bamford.

Thanks,

With the last 3 results I would say we are around 2.5pts behind schedule to reach 74pts, and I would give us a 31% chance of reaching 74pts. A win at Millwall would take us to 1pt off schedule and 47% chance of hitting 74 pts. Draw and we'll be 3pts off schedule, with a 29% chance of reaching 74, and lose 4pts off schedule and 25% chance of reaching 74pts. Its a big game, but they all are from here on out.

I had actually refined it a bit based on a deeper analysis on home vs away form based on xg%. This is what I would now say:

6W1D (2.71pts/Game) - 19pts
Home: Oxford, Wednesday, Wrexham, Swansea, Hull, Blackburn, PNE

3W2D (2.2pts/Game) - 11pts
Home: Boro, Ipswich (W), Coventry, WBA
Away: Charlton (L)

2W2L (1.75pts/Game) - 7pts
Away: Millwall, Norwich, Bristol, Derby

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts
Away: Southampton (L), Portsmouth, QPR, Birmingham, Watford


Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)

Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2.0pts/Game - 4W2L)
OXF (H), MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)

March: 8pts from 4 games (2.0pts/Game - 2W2D)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)

 

[Harry's Game]

It’s not happening.. we would have to win virtually every game and so many in between us and 6th would need to slip.

We already are going into a very tough game this weekend with 3 key players suspended.. amongst them the absolutely irreplaceable Bamford.

Wilder came back to keep us up and looks like he’s going to that.. applaud it after the mournful start of losing the first 6 where it didn’t look like would get to 30 points.

Lets see what the huge summer rebuild brings

 

[Missing Spark]

It’s not happening.. we would have to win virtually every game and so many in between us and 6th would need to slip.

We already are going into a very tough game this weekend with 3 key players suspended.. amongst them the absolutely irreplaceable Bamford.

Wilder came back to keep us up and looks like he’s going to that.. applaud it after the mournful start of losing the first 6 where it didn’t look like would get to 30 points.

Lets see what the huge summer rebuild brings

It IS happening.

 

[Berkshire Blade]

Actual footage of us somehow making it only to end up realising we are in the play offs

 

[SUFCScorecard]

It’s not happening.. we would have to win virtually every game and so many in between us and 6th would need to slip.

We already are going into a very tough game this weekend with 3 key players suspended.. amongst them the absolutely irreplaceable Bamford.

Wilder came back to keep us up and looks like he’s going to that.. applaud it after the mournful start of losing the first 6 where it didn’t look like would get to 30 points.

Lets see what the huge summer rebuild brings

I agree its a low % chance. This analysis, if anything, shows what a huge lift it would be. I certainly wouldn't put any money on it right now. I think we probably end around 68 pts between 8th-10th. We are a good team, and the data backs this up, but we've left too much to do.

I'll also add - this analysis is based on 74pts being the target. Wrexham in 6th are currently earning 1.52ppg, good for 69 pts, Millwall in 5th, 1.69ppg, good for 78pts. Its really hard to predict where the mark will be this season. I can see a few teams pushing on and the standard being in the high 70s as the top 3 aren't as strong as they have been in recent years (so decent teams can take points from them).

 

[ISZA ⚔️]

We’ll lose to Norwich in play-off final.

 

[SUFCScorecard]

We’ll lose to Norwich in play-off final.

Or God forbid - Wrexham. Honestly would have to move to the Pitcairn islands for 6 months.

 

[Varkanoid]

I preferred the post with the bottles, weerz it gone?

 

[GymClassHero]

People are out their tree if they think we're making play offs

We blew what little chance we had with our run of defeats.

 

[Gavlar]

View attachment 229855

That AI blades badge gives me a rash.

 

[Missing Spark]

People are out their tree if they think we're making play offs

We blew what little chance we had with our run of defeats.

Nonsense. It’s happening dude x

 

[Varkanoid]

Nonsense. It’s happening dude x

and we win the final you know it.

 

[SandyMcBlade]

Would be great to see promotion this season,
but maybe even better if we just came close,
then built a team that could stay there.....

 

[SUFCScorecard]

Updated:

6W1D (2.71pts/Game) - 19pts
Home: Oxford, Wednesday, Wrexham, Swansea, Hull, Blackburn, PNE

3W2D (2.2pts/Game) - 11pts (-1.4pts)
Home: Boro, Ipswich (W), Coventry, WBA
Away: Charlton (L)

2W2L (1.5pts/Game) - 6pts (-0.5pts)
Away: Millwall (D), Norwich, Bristol, Derby

2W3L (1.2pts/Game) - 6pts (-1.2pts)
Away: Southampton (L), Portsmouth, QPR, Birmingham, Watford


Based on Months and fixture strength that looks like this:

Jan: 7pts from 4 games (1.75pts/Game - 2W1D1L)
CHA (A), SOU (A), IPS (H), MIL (A)
Jan: 4pts from 4 games (1pt/game - 1W1D2L) -3pts

Feb: 12pts from 6 games (2.0pts/Game - 4W2L)
OXF (H), MID (H), POR (A), SHW (H), COV (H), QPR (A)

March: 8pts from 4 games (2.0pts/Game - 2W2D)
WBA (H), NOR (A), BIR (A), WRE (H)

April/May: 15pts from 7 games (2.14pts/Game - 5W2L)
SWA (H), BRI (A), HUL (H), WAT (A), BLA (H), PNE (H), DER (A)

Right now I think we are 3pts behind schedule - and I assess out chances of getting to 74pts as being as 29%, need 2.23ppg. Its going to take something really special to turn this around now. We'll need to win the next 3 to get back on schedule.