Optimism - Parachute payments - importance of second season

[Silent Blade]

Apologies if this has all been said but I'm too depressed to read too many posts!

Reasons for optimism - Leeds got 90 points in their first year down, and won the title the year after. We failed to get in the play offs first year down last time, and got promoted in the second season.

There is a common perception that the first year down is the most important and likely for promotion, but I suggest the second year is arguably the best opportunity. The parachute payments only dip slightly from year one to year two (from about £43m to £35m) and in general during the first year down the relegated club needs to pay off high priced failures leaving little for new signings - meaning that having cleared the decks in year one, the £35m with a clean slate in year two can a better opportunity.

If on top of the £35m (plus Wembley revenue etc) our new owners also chip in a far wedge, then we may be in better shape to strengthen than we expect. Indeed I would be trying to persuade Hamer and Cooper (in particular) to stay on by demonstrating the willingness to invest further, and by uplifting their contracts if needed I am hoping Hamer's friendship with O'Hare may help too - although I know its highly unlikely we can keep Hamer as the best player in the division, and who appeared to wave good bye at Wembley.

To counter the above, the third year payments dip alarmingly. This makes next season absolutely crucial, and we must be absolutely sure we have the right man in charge, as giving Wilder until Christmas (as Deadbeat suggests) isn't an option, as if we sack him then and bring someone new in, we will have thrown away our best chance for years.

I admire Wilder's managerial record with us and loved our first year up pre Covid - although he is well behind Bassett, has a similar record to Warnock, and has a worse ppg record than Heckingbottom, even taking into account the number of points Wilder got in Div 1. But a combination of having demonstrated a poor recent transfer record, becoming more negative in his approach, no longer being consistent in team selection or formation, and having an ego which appears at times out of control etc. means I would prefer we pat him on the back, and bring in another proven manager (Dyche. Cooper....) for a refreshed assault.

It has been widely reported that we got £49M for the first season of the parachute payments so the split of 55% and 45% for two years of payments means it will be £40M in second season?

If we fail to go up next season then we probably go the same way as Norwich, WBA, Swansea and others who have blown away their parachute money

 

[cooperblade]

Current betting

 

[Rodley]

Cooper still has three years on his contract, so we’re only going to sell him if we get a crazy bid.

The bidding can start at £30m

Henderson signed for Palace for £15 plus £5m add ons.

I think Cooper would probably get £15m as generally goalkeepers are a bit undervalued. I wouldn’t sell him though and doubt he’ll go.

 

[Rodley]

Current bettingView attachment 211908

About right, suspect we’ll lose a couple of players who will want to move and invest heavily to get autos.

 

[Berkshire Blade]

Right now I am optimistic.

If we get to the end of July with half a squad like last year I won't be happy.

If we get to the start of the season with that like this year I will be despondent.

I don't think we will be in the situation we were last Summer though

 

[Brian Deane]

It was pointed out lastnight on MOTD that the combined points totals of the three that went up last season was at it lowest ever, even lower than the last shitshow we were involved in.
The gap is getting wider each year as we all know.

 

[s20Blade]

Hamer is too much of a luxury for us in this league. Get two players that are one third as good that can play all season between them is better than a Gustavo Hamer when you consider the bloody suspensions he picks up.

 

[YES Blade]

Henderson signed for Palace for £15 plus £5m add ons.

I think Cooper would probably get £15m as generally goalkeepers are a bit undervalued. I wouldn’t sell him though and doubt he’ll go.

Henderson signed for Palace off the back of a season on loan at Forest where he missed half the season due to injury so that maybe dropped his value a bit. Also Man U we’re happy to sell him, we don’t need or want to sell Cooper.

Ramsdale went to Southampton for £25m, so that’s why I put Cooper at £30m.

 

[Coolblade]

It has been widely reported that we got £49M for the first season of the parachute payments so the split of 55% and 45% for two years of payments means it will be £40M in second season?

If we fail to go up next season then we probably go the same way as Norwich, WBA, Swansea and others who have blown away their parachute money

Thanks Silent, for those updated figures, so even more reason to make sure we go all in next season. With the lost wages of a few big signings (perhaps Vini, Anel, Gus, Brewster and hopefully Robbo) and a substantial investment by the new owners, we should be just about the best financed team in the division. With a fine crop of youngsters (Arb, Peck, Seriki, One, Brooks) one year more developed, with (hopefully) Cooper, Burrows, O’Hare, Campbell staying and with perhaps Moore & Tom Davies providing the experience.

So even more important we find the right person to identify the right targets to boost the first eleven (particularly the defence), both with permanent signings and top drawer (but costly) loans. Even the most ardent Wilder supporter must have some concerns about his recent transfer dealings especially when he has cash to spend? I pray we get it right.

 

[nopigfansintown]

Players leaving isn't a worry. In fact I encourage it if they have two or fewer years on their deals and they won't resign - as long as it's for the right money. We don't have an Ndiaye. Nobody is irreplaceable.

 

[Varkanoid]

Henderson signed for Palace for £15 plus £5m add ons.

I think Cooper would probably get £15m as generally goalkeepers are a bit undervalued. I wouldn’t sell him though and doubt he’ll go.

He wont go because A) he wont want to go and B) he isnt a proven PL GK so someone would be taking a punt. Another season in Champ and IF we do go up we certainly wont want to sell him. He needs to improve his distribution thats his weakness.

 

[MobileBlade]

The owners will need to gamble if we want to compete with the relegated teams, all should be stronger than us.

If those already in the league Coventry will be up there.

Promoted teams will be interesting as well, Birmingham will throw money at it, Wrexham are an unknown and it will be interesting to see if they go for consolidation or if they try and push on.

The promoted teams still have P&S to contend with and their high spending last season is taken into account towards the £39m losses.

 

[Booker4]

Apologies if this has all been said but I'm too depressed to read too many posts!

Reasons for optimism - Leeds got 90 points in their first year down, and won the title the year after. We failed to get in the play offs first year down last time, and got promoted in the second season.

There is a common perception that the first year down is the most important and likely for promotion, but I suggest the second year is arguably the best opportunity. The parachute payments only dip slightly from year one to year two (from about £43m to £35m) and in general during the first year down the relegated club needs to pay off high priced failures leaving little for new signings - meaning that having cleared the decks in year one, the £35m with a clean slate in year two can a better opportunity.

If on top of the £35m (plus Wembley revenue etc) our new owners also chip in a far wedge, then we may be in better shape to strengthen than we expect. Indeed I would be trying to persuade Hamer and Cooper (in particular) to stay on by demonstrating the willingness to invest further, and by uplifting their contracts if needed I am hoping Hamer's friendship with O'Hare may help too - although I know its highly unlikely we can keep Hamer as the best player in the division, and who appeared to wave good bye at Wembley.

To counter the above, the third year payments dip alarmingly. This makes next season absolutely crucial, and we must be absolutely sure we have the right man in charge, as giving Wilder until Christmas (as Deadbeat suggests) isn't an option, as if we sack him then and bring someone new in, we will have thrown away our best chance for years.

I admire Wilder's managerial record with us and loved our first year up pre Covid - although he is well behind Bassett, has a similar record to Warnock, and has a worse ppg record than Heckingbottom, even taking into account the number of points Wilder got in Div 1. But a combination of having demonstrated a poor recent transfer record, becoming more negative in his approach, no longer being consistent in team selection or formation, and having an ego which appears at times out of control etc. means I would prefer we pat him on the back, and bring in another proven manager (Dyche. Cooper....) for a refreshed assault.

Thanks for this post, I had no idea on the second season parachute payments being decent, not far off the first.

I would beg to differ on your last paragraph re Wilder though. In terms of transfers we've had Hamza, Campbell, O'Hare, Souttar, Cooper and Burrows all come in under Wilder. Some of the best players we've ever had in my lifetime are on that list and I'm 46. Still time for the Cannon signing to come off. I think next season we'll see a much improved Cannon because he'll have had a pre season with us. There's a player in there for sure.

 

[jt64]

I love this whole "Cooper will be off" concept. Any bigger club that was remotely interested buys him twelve months ago. And they all passed on him. Market doesn't lie.

 

[Davalon]

Henderson signed for Palace off the back of a season on loan at Forest where he missed half the season due to injury so that maybe dropped his value a bit. Also Man U we’re happy to sell him, we don’t need or want to sell Cooper.

Ramsdale went to Southampton for £25m, so that’s why I put Cooper at £30m.

Palace were also taking on his three figure wages (and adding a London weighting to )

 

[Kozzy_is_my_Dad]

Cooper
O'Hare
Campbell
Souttar
Burrows
Rak - Sakyi
Moore

After last season BBD was seen as a masterstroke of business, yet has been underwhelming this season.

All poor transfers though.

He recruited very well, a short notice and with a shed load of work to do.

There are less successful aspects: Gilchrist, Cannon (for the system, thus far) and failing to replace Souttar or to pick Holding over Robinson. But more good than not, IMO, given the size of the task handed to him last summer.

 

[CPB]

I get the argument about changing manager. I appreciate that at times the performances haven't been as good as we want to see but for the most part the results have been.

Personally I would think it would be a poor move to change manager right now. In just about any other season 92 pts (Because we shouldn't have a pts deduction next season) gets you 2nd or even 1st. And obv the play off final is a one off game one we nearly actually won (Lets not go over that again).

I would be surprised if Hamer is our player come September. Should he leave I would hope that helps us with transfer budget too.
If he does go, I feel like we should alter our play a bit and look for more pacey wide/wingers.

It's all just raw still since Saturday but come August as fans we will be mentally ready for the new season. Hopefully our summer planning will mean we can be optimistic about another push for top 2.

It will yet again be a tough year. Would expect Leicester (depending on if they get a pts deduction), Ipswich and to a lesser extent Southampton to be in the mix. Coventry and probably Bristol City too. Birmingham will be a dangerous side most likely.
Hopefully this step up for Wrexham proves just a bit more than they've had so far. I don't have alot against them but this "miraculous" rise has been very well funded. A bit like Forest's remarkable upturn to finish 7th. They've spent 300m+. It's not that remarkable.

 

[Shakespeare blade]

Cooper still has three years on his contract, so we’re only going to sell him if we get a crazy bid.

The bidding can start at £30m

I wouldn’t be surprised if we have bids close to £20m for him, he’s young, got good distribution, great shot stopper, calm and English, hopefully we keep him but I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes

 

[Shakespeare blade]

I'm hoping the new owners make new contract offers to Souza, Hamer, Anel and Hamza to keep them on board.

For me Anel is the one that can go, he’s had his arse handed to him on more than one occasion and really need to replace with better for next season and hopefully further on

 

[CPB]

For me Anel is the one that can go, he’s had his arse handed to him on more than one occasion and really need to replace with better for next season and hopefully further on

It's likely Anel will go. Unless they agree a new deal for him.

He will be entering his final year this summer and so we won't want to lose him for free.
Would expect bids in excess of 4-5m may well suffice. I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if Leeds or Burnley take a look at him for that sort of price.

Least with Hamer we have 2 more years on his deal so we can play hardball with fee. Personally I'd want to be getting £25m+ for him or he stays.

 

[jt64]

It's likely Anel will go. Unless they agree a new deal for him.

He will be entering his final year this summer and so we won't want to lose him for free.
Would expect bids in excess of 4-5m may well suffice. I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if Leeds or Burnley take a look at him for that sort of price.

It always baffles me that just because we always seem to go with the "buy best in Championship" transfer plan that they think other clubs would do the same

 

[CPB]

It always baffles me that just because we always seem to go with the "buy best in Championship" transfer plan that they think other clubs would do the same

I think because other PL clubs do so as well.

Alot of good players in the top flight have come from plying their trade previous in the championship.

Top of my head you've got Watkins, Eze, Bowen. Think about just from us too, Iliman was likely signed by Everton not for his stint at Marseille but because of the time with us. Forest signed MGW for his season at us too mostly not his time at Wolves prior.

Buying the best in the championship is a sound idea, with the prospect of them making the step up. But the crucial thing that sets clubs apart. Is that the better strategy to recruit better in the top flight is mixing that up with signings who are established PL players to signing relative unknowns from abroad.

 

[jt64]

I think because other PL clubs do so as well.

Alot of good players in the top flight have come from plying their trade previous in the championship.

Top of my head you've got Watkins, Eze, Bowen.

Those are the peak of the peak though (probably fair to chuck Toney in that list as well), all of which clearly had big upside (given their age and that they are attackers, not defenders). Anel is not that. Could someone buy him for squad depth? Not impossible, I'll grant you that, but at this stage with Anel the upside clearly isn't there and bigger clubs than us with rational recruitment have very few real reasons to be interested

 

[Coolblade]

Whilst a knee jerk reaction rarely results n a great outcome, eg the timing of the sacking of Blackwell and Wilson was bizarre, and that a period of reflection is appropriate, it would be helpful for our owners and manager (be it Wilder, as I expect) to be relatively swift in a making a few key early decisions.

If the owners double down in openly saying Wilder is the man for next season, and quite quickly we move in the transfer market to buy a couple of first team players, eg Dunne from QPR, then this will hopefully settle the fans down, and demonstrate to any players who are.unsettled to be more positive about staying and finishing the job. If we dilly dally for three weeks, replace the manager with someone who needs time to assess the squad etc. then time will move move swiftly, and early points may be lost.

We need to hit the ground running to maximize the vital second season opportunity and that’s the best argument for keeping Wilder. I know signings often take time, and not every player deal can be resolved early on, but some can, and we need to make a statement of intent asap.