Optimism - Parachute payments - importance of second season

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Coolblade

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Apologies if this has all been said but I'm too depressed to read too many posts!

Reasons for optimism - Leeds got 90 points in their first year down, and won the title the year after. We failed to get in the play offs first year down last time, and got promoted in the second season.

There is a common perception that the first year down is the most important and likely for promotion, but I suggest the second year is arguably the best opportunity. The parachute payments only dip slightly from year one to year two (from about £43m to £35m) and in general during the first year down the relegated club needs to pay off high priced failures leaving little for new signings - meaning that having cleared the decks in year one, the £35m with a clean slate in year two can a better opportunity.

If on top of the £35m (plus Wembley revenue etc) our new owners also chip in a far wedge, then we may be in better shape to strengthen than we expect. Indeed I would be trying to persuade Hamer and Cooper (in particular) to stay on by demonstrating the willingness to invest further, and by uplifting their contracts if needed I am hoping Hamer's friendship with O'Hare may help too - although I know its highly unlikely we can keep Hamer as the best player in the division, and who appeared to wave good bye at Wembley.

To counter the above, the third year payments dip alarmingly. This makes next season absolutely crucial, and we must be absolutely sure we have the right man in charge, as giving Wilder until Christmas (as Deadbeat suggests) isn't an option, as if we sack him then and bring someone new in, we will have thrown away our best chance for years.

I admire Wilder's managerial record with us and loved our first year up pre Covid - although he is well behind Bassett, has a similar record to Warnock, and has a worse ppg record than Heckingbottom, even taking into account the number of points Wilder got in Div 1. But a combination of having demonstrated a poor recent transfer record, becoming more negative in his approach, no longer being consistent in team selection or formation, and having an ego which appears at times out of control etc. means I would prefer we pat him on the back, and bring in another proven manager (Dyche. Cooper....) for a refreshed assault.
 

I agree, but I would still at least try to keep them by demonstrating a clear and positive plan for next season. Cooper will need to find a deal which gives him first choice action but I just know that Cooper will join Leeds - being a similar groin kick as MGW joining Florist.
 
So even more important we get it right! Next season is becoming increasingly vital. Is it more of a gamble to stick or twist?
 
The owners will need to gamble if we want to compete with the relegated teams, all should be stronger than us.

If those already in the league Coventry will be up there.

Promoted teams will be interesting as well, Birmingham will throw money at it, Wrexham are an unknown and it will be interesting to see if they go for consolidation or if they try and push on.
 
Leicester, Soton and Ipswich look pretty weak to me; more worried about Birmingham. Looks a pretty good year to go for it.
 
Cooper will need to find a deal which gives him first choice action but I just know that Cooper will join Leeds - being a similar groin kick as MGW joining Florist.
Leeds want Ramsdale.

Cooper wont be going anywhere. I will say it again you dont get rid of a good keeper if you are planning another promotion run. People forget we dont have to sell anymore to get players in.
 
Leicester, Soton and Ipswich look pretty weak to me; more worried about Birmingham. Looks a pretty good year to go for it.
Feel like the same could have been said (and probably was) about us Burnley and Luton and two of those teams reached 90 points with one reaching 100

In fairness and for balance Luton were absolutely dog turd.

I think what I’m trying to say is a team being bad in the premier league doesn’t necessarily mean they will be weak next season.
 
It doesn’t necessarily mean so but Leicester are still in financial strife, and Soton squad with the likes of Archer and BD was hardly strengthened much. Ipswich may be biggest threat but will sell Delap and I’d be surprised if they are top two. Leeds and Burnley are different gravy. If we invest well we have nothing to fear.
 
Apologies if this has all been said but I'm too depressed to read too many posts!

Reasons for optimism - Leeds got 90 points in their first year down, and won the title the year after. We failed to get in the play offs first year down last time, and got promoted in the second season.

There is a common perception that the first year down is the most important and likely for promotion, but I suggest the second year is arguably the best opportunity. The parachute payments only dip slightly from year one to year two (from about £43m to £35m) and in general during the first year down the relegated club needs to pay off high priced failures leaving little for new signings - meaning that having cleared the decks in year one, the £35m with a clean slate in year two can a better opportunity.

If on top of the £35m (plus Wembley revenue etc) our new owners also chip in a far wedge, then we may be in better shape to strengthen than we expect. Indeed I would be trying to persuade Hamer and Cooper (in particular) to stay on by demonstrating the willingness to invest further, and by uplifting their contracts if needed I am hoping Hamer's friendship with O'Hare may help too - although I know its highly unlikely we can keep Hamer as the best player in the division, and who appeared to wave good bye at Wembley.

To counter the above, the third year payments dip alarmingly. This makes next season absolutely crucial, and we must be absolutely sure we have the right man in charge, as giving Wilder until Christmas (as Deadbeat suggests) isn't an option, as if we sack him then and bring someone new in, we will have thrown away our best chance for years.

I admire Wilder's managerial record with us and loved our first year up pre Covid - although he is well behind Bassett, has a similar record to Warnock, and has a worse ppg record than Heckingbottom, even taking into account the number of points Wilder got in Div 1. But a combination of having demonstrated a poor recent transfer record, becoming more negative in his approach, no longer being consistent in team selection or formation, and having an ego which appears at times out of control etc. means I would prefer we pat him on the back, and bring in another proven manager (Dyche. Cooper....) for a refreshed assault.
I may be in a minority here but I think the standing on a table with a pint in hand singing about Wednesday was a poor look. We struggled for form after that.
 
To be fair I’m not sure there’s a causal link but I agree we should expect a modicum of professionalism from our leader.
 
I agree, but I would still at least try to keep them by demonstrating a clear and positive plan for next season. Cooper will need to find a deal which gives him first choice action but I just know that Cooper will join Leeds - being a similar groin kick as MGW joining Florist.

Cooper still has three years on his contract, so we’re only going to sell him if we get a crazy bid.

The bidding can start at £30m
 

having demonstrated a poor recent transfer record

Cooper
O'Hare
Campbell
Souttar
Burrows
Rak - Sakyi
Moore

After last season BBD was seen as a masterstroke of business, yet has been underwhelming this season.

All poor transfers though.
 
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Leicester, Soton and Ipswich look pretty weak to me; more worried about Birmingham. Looks a pretty good year to go for it.
Obviously lots of time for things to change but I'm not sure Birmingham have got a player who'd get in Ipswich's first team.
 
Cooper shouldn't under any circumstances be sold. Unless he does a Ramsdale, but I don't think he's that kind of guy.

Keeping Hamer and Souza will be difficult. But maybe there's a way to convince them that the club's ambition can match theirs. 🤷‍♂️

I would like to keep Anel. I think at Championship level he's one of the best CB's you can get.
 
Leicester, Soton and Ipswich look pretty weak to me; more worried about Birmingham. Looks a pretty good year to go for it.
Leicester looking at a -15 pts start which would take them out of the autos race.
Not sure about Brum, they already have a very high wage bill for what I'd say was an average Championship squad.
Soton under Still I expect will be strong as will Ipswich if they keep the manager.
For me a 3 horse race again, Ipswich/Blades/Soton for the top 2.
 
Reasons for optimism - Leeds got 90 points in their first year down, and won the title the year after. We failed to get in the play offs first year down last time, and got promoted in the second season.
No we didn't. We lost to Forest.
 
Birmingham just earned 111 points in 46 games. I think they're likely a strong play off challenger without any additions
 
Leicester, Soton and Ipswich look pretty weak to me; more worried about Birmingham. Looks a pretty good year to go for it.
Leicester looking at a -15 pts start which would take them out of the autos race.
Not sure about Brum, they already have a very high wage bill for what I'd say was an average Championship squad.
Soton under Still I expect will be strong as will Ipswich if they keep the manager.
For me a 3 horse race again, Ipswich/Blades/Soton for the top 2.
 
My Manager at work is an Ipswich fan with Delap probably going along with prob having to sell a few players they might struggle he reckons. They overstretched themselves Finance wise to try and stay up.
 

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