Odds on us getting to Wembley in 2015...

[Canterbury Blade]

I was trying to get some odds on The (once) Mighty Blades appearing at Wembley at some point in 2015. I couldn't get the local bookmakers down here to give me a quote and they said they'd have to contact their specialist department.

So, anyone with any connections or inside knowledge able to get the odds?

For clarity, I asked the odds on us appearing at Wembley.

The incredulous look on the bookies face was bad enough, to have asked the odds on us actually winning at Wembley would have risked further reputational ridicule....

UTB (one day)
FTP (every day)

 

[moDtheGod]

I can't see any high street bookmaker bothering to price that up for you. What odds would you like?

My initial feeling was something around the 2/1 mark, but I reckon that might be a smidge generous. 7/4?

 

[Hartley Hare]

An interesting bet.

In essence this is more likely to occur via the L1 playoffs and we would not be 2/1 let alone 7/4 over two legs against the like of MKD or Preston?

I would have a nibble at 2/1.

HH

 

[Goodpinchofclough]

nowhere near on recent form. 6/1 league cup, odds even for the league. 50/1 fa cup id say but who knows what that evens out at

 

[SwissBlade]

Never mind pissing about with one trip, What odds for three trips?

 

[SouthEssexBlade]

Never mind pissing about with one trip, What odds for three trips?

...and being unbeaten?

 

[Geordie Blade]

Looking at the odds (I used Bet365):

Blades to finish in the top six: 8/11 (=58% chance)
- Assume that we have a 50% chance of winning the play-off semi final (=29% chance of getting to Wembley) (call this 'A')

Blades to beat Spurs over two legs: 5/1 (=17% chance) (call this 'B')

No odds on us getting to the FA Cup final, but I'll assume 80/1 (=1% chance) (call this 'C')

Therefore, the chance of ANY of the above happening = 1-[(1-A)*(1-B)*(1-C)] = 41.5%

So, the odds should be something like 7/5.

 

[moDtheGod]

That's on the very low side though, because the odds aren't reflecting the true percentage chance - they're reflecting an adjusted percentage chance depending on the overround. By multiplying those adjusted chances, you're multiplying up the bookies edge.

 

[jt64]

The only way it'll happen is if they somehow become the support act for the Foo Fighters

 

[SouthEssexBlade]

The only way it'll happen is if they somehow become the support act for the Foo Fighters

Mickey (Doyle) and the midgets?