My Best Case Scenario and the Sting in the Tail.

[1danewhitehouse]

I think there’s a few points that need to be considered here:-


1. for those saying Clough was about to complete the squad and would be flying now; let’s bear in mind that his last act in charge was to renew Jay McEveley’s contract. Let’s also look at how he did last season and then take out Brayford and Murphy. He would have had to cope with that just like Adkins has had to. Let’s also consider that Collins and JCR would have remained on the naughty step, Wallace might never have been played at LB and McEveley would have probably carried on playing CB.


2. I absolutely love how Adkins is approaching the job. The positivity of the man himself and the fact he wants us to play on the front foot. People complain the CB issue hasn’t been resolved but a partnership of Collins and Edgar is worlds better than the Alcock and McEveley partnership we finished with last season. Yes they’re conceding goals but we’re playing a more attacking brand of football so it’s inevitable to an extent. People will point to the fact that we’re further off the pace than last season but we need to consider that last season’s team was Clough’s side with players signed to play specifically how he wanted. Adkins is trying to play a different way and trying to figure out which players are up to playing his way. The fact that Harris, Coutts, Alcock, Done, Brayford, Kennedy, Wallace, Cuvelier etc. have all spent significant time out injured makes it more difficult as he can’t move the fringe players on due to lack of cover and can’t assess everyone until they are fit. As he’s got people back, he’s started to move some on loan (Higdon, McNulty, Alcock, McDongagh after already loaning DCL, Brooks, Banton, Hamilton etc.). For me, the only real mistakes he’s made are signing Woolford. I think he thought he would be the same player he had a few years ago and has received a nasty surprise. The other is abandoning what served him so well earlier in the season now he has players back from injury. I’d like to see him stick with Sharp and Sammon up top and get Adams and JCR to provide the pace/width.


But overall, whilst I might not agree with every transfer and every team selection, I wholeheartedly agree with the overall approach he is using and believe that if it is given enough time and if we can manage to be patient with him, it will pay huge dividends. They are the right ideas. The execution isn't quite there yet but let's stick with it and see where it takes us.

 

[Woodwardfan]

I think there’s a few points that need to be considered here:-


1. for those saying Clough was about to complete the squad and would be flying now; let’s bear in mind that his last act in charge was to renew Jay McEveley’s contract. Let’s also look at how he did last season and then take out Brayford and Murphy. He would have had to cope with that just like Adkins has had to. Let’s also consider that Collins and JCR would have remained on the naughty step, Wallace might never have been played at LB and McEveley would have probably carried on playing CB.


2. I absolutely love how Adkins is approaching the job. The positivity of the man himself and the fact he wants us to play on the front foot. People complain the CB issue hasn’t been resolved but a partnership of Collins and Edgar is worlds better than the Alcock and McEveley partnership we finished with last season. Yes they’re conceding goals but we’re playing a more attacking brand of football so it’s inevitable to an extent. People will point to the fact that we’re further off the pace than last season but we need to consider that last season’s team was Clough’s side with players signed to play specifically how he wanted. Adkins is trying to play a different way and trying to figure out which players are up to playing his way. The fact that Harris, Coutts, Alcock, Done, Brayford, Kennedy, Wallace, Cuvelier etc. have all spent significant time out injured makes it more difficult as he can’t move the fringe players on due to lack of cover and can’t assess everyone until they are fit. As he’s got people back, he’s started to move some on loan (Higdon, McNulty, Alcock, McDongagh after already loaning DCL, Brooks, Banton, Hamilton etc.). For me, the only real mistakes he’s made are signing Woolford. I think he thought he would be the same player he had a few years ago and has received a nasty surprise. The other is abandoning what served him so well earlier in the season now he has players back from injury. I’d like to see him stick with Sharp and Sammon up top and get Adams and JCR to provide the pace/width.


But overall, whilst I might not agree with every transfer and every team selection, I wholeheartedly agree with the overall approach he is using and believe that if it is given enough time and if we can manage to be patient with him, it will pay huge dividends. They are the right ideas. The execution isn't quite there yet but let's stick with it and see where it takes us.

Great post.

There is not a manager in the world who would take over any team at any club where every single supporter would not do certain things differently 5 months into the job - even if the team were top of the league.

I also support the way he has methodically gone about the job and it is far too early to judge even Woolford who has always been a steady player and will be for us. Edgar, Sammon and Hammond will play better as will any number of the longer standing players. Sharp is playing well but we are not setting up enough chances for him and his goals tally from open play will be a disappointment to him as well as his manager.

It's always down to the manager at the end of the day but almost every player can improve personally. If there is a morale issue holding them all back then most of them will be booted out next summer or before.

I do not believe Adkins will be sacked if we don't gain promotion this season but I reckon his budget will be cut and that is why he keeps saying we have to do it this season. It is entirely reasonable for the owners to make the point that the next wedge of funding will be at the higher level and there has been too much spent unsuccessfully already.

 

[Kenilworth]

I do not believe Adkins will be sacked if we don't gain promotion this season but I reckon his budget will be cut and that is why he keeps saying we have to do it this season. It is entirely reasonable for the owners to make the point that the next wedge of funding will be at the higher level and there has been too much spent unsuccessfully already.

Budget cut?
With all the players that will be out of contract this coming close season he will have a significant sum to recruit his own players if they don't offer the likes of McEveley and Collins new deals.
Are you suggesting that of the 14 players that we can bin - none of that money will be available in wages?

Surely the Murphy money should be available to him in the Summer

 

[Woodwardfan]

Budget cut?
With all the players that will be out of contract this coming close season he will have a significant sum to recruit his own players if they don't offer the likes of McEveley and Collins new deals.
Are you suggesting that of the 14 players that we can bin - none of that money will be available in wages?

Surely the Murphy money should be available to him in the Summer

Not suggesting that at all but I believe we have been on inflated budgets since the new owners arrived and a lot has been wasted. Of course we'll still be amongst the top budgets in the league but transfer fees may be out and new players will be signed on lesser wages in aggregate. Hey I'm guessing anyway but the new owner will probably decide that the problem is more about the personnel involved than the money when he looks at what is being achieved by other clubs in the same league. For his second year Adkins might be set more of a test than this year's test rather than just throwing money at the problem/ challenge.

If that is so, where's it all gone? Players pockets, many of whom don't make the first team hardly and when they do they certainly don't contribute much.

I'd also guess that the Murphy money will be spent by the end of the JTW, some of it on Hammond's wages for 2/3 years and some of it on settlements to cull the squad sooner rather than later.

As I say in the O.P. play the kids, they wouldn't do much worse and would at least be learning the game for future challenges in a different "environment".

 

[Woodwardfan]

Hope this is a good thread.

Interesting that nobody has challenged the OP regarding the reality of having to sell quality players when the Premier League comes knocking. The key is turning the negatives into positives and using the money well.

I read recently that Southampton have moved on in that respect. It is now only the Top 5 that can just knock and take who they want. At least Spton can realistically ward off all the other 15 teams in the Prem and even the Top 5 have to offer fair prices these days.

With regard to replacements, Southampton have a similar Recruitment Panel to the one mentioned by Phipps for us. If the manager wants the panel to consider a new player he has to make his case to that panel and they add him to their own continuous list of prospects for if and when needed. Then they study the manager's prospect in exactly the same way they do every other prospect and the manager gets one vote on the panel.

The whole evolution of the club has been built in the knowledge and expectation that they will have to sell their best players from time to time until they become one of the Top 4/5 clubs.

 

[wizadry]

"... being appointed in June did not leave Adkins with a lot of time to assess the squad before the season started. "

Adkins had virtually the whole summer, pre-season and the first few league games of this season to see what the problems are, the blindingly obvious being a dominant centre half that wins all the first balls and who had all the leadership qualities you'd expect from a player in that position. Adkins instead gave the captaincy to McEveley and played him at centre half. All this in my book is inexcusable.

I don't think it's rocket science to get out of this division (although a number of successive managers have now attempted to unsuccessfully reinvent the wheel, when it hasn't been necessary to do so) ie big lads in key positions with big hearts, that meet fire with fire.

I've not written this season off yet but it's essential Adkins gets in, either now on loan, or when the JTW opens (first week, not scratching around at the 11th hour blaming dodgy fax machines for failed transfers), 3 players straight down the spine, all leaders, all who want it, centre half, centre mid and target man. They don't particularly have to be world beaters, just be prepared to knock down brick walls to win and get the best out of the other 8 on the field. It's a shit division, if we get it right it is possible to bang out the wins, go months with out defeat and storm the division.

What needs serious questioning and i've not heard it asked by anyone yet is why did the board sack Clough a week or so after the renewals were made? This fucked Adkins up big time. He was never going to be able to bring all the players in that he wanted because he was never going to get rid of some of the players that he didn't want due to the size of our squad, it was always going to be difficult for him and that's why he needs the time to rectify it.

 

[Hunkerby]

The comparison with Southampton is interesting.
Both clubs appear to have good academies.
Both clubs have good training facilities.

Where the clubs appear to be light years apart is in the area of scouting and player evaluation.
Southampton scout players from around the World, have a collaborative approach, use the latest technology, use a bespoke player profiling system to ensure prospective signings are athletic and can fit into their system of playing.

Sheffield United appear to use a quill pen, fax machine and some guesswork based on performances in the Championship 3 years ago.

 

[finlaytheblade]

The comparison with Southampton is interesting.
Both clubs appear to have good academies.
Both clubs have good training facilities.

Where the clubs appear to be light years apart is in the area of scouting and player evaluation.
Southampton scout players from around the World, have a collaborative approach, use the latest technology, use a bespoke player profiling system to ensure prospective signings are athletic and can fit into their system of playing.

Sheffield United appear to use a quill pen, fax machine and some guesswork based on performances in the Championship 3 years ago.

I think your talking out of the top of your hat there hulk,how do you know our recruitment plan is rubbish.Adkins has put in place a system which the board think is the right way but you cannot judge the system after a few Months give it time

 

[Hunkerby]

You can easily see that the recruitment plan is rubbish by performances on the pitch.

 

[raul]

If only we had some sort of connection to a big , foreign club.Not just "mates" but a real conduit right into their Boardroom. Maybe a domestic superpower with a regular presence on the European stage from a League wealthy enough to sign International from all over the Wor......

Ah.

 

[Woodwardfan]

The comparison with Southampton is interesting.
Both clubs appear to have good academies.
Both clubs have good training facilities.

Where the clubs appear to be light years apart is in the area of scouting and player evaluation.
Southampton scout players from around the World, have a collaborative approach, use the latest technology, use a bespoke player profiling system to ensure prospective signings are athletic and can fit into their system of playing.

Sheffield United appear to use a quill pen, fax machine and some guesswork based on performances in the Championship 3 years ago.

Adkins has been part of the Southampton story. Phipps declared that Clough had ridden roughshod over the recruitment panel system and perhaps that was the reason he was sacked when he was told things had to change.

Adkins' signings to date have not impressed anybody but players do need time to settle. For example, Jamie Murphy was ridiculed on here for months after he joined us.

Turnbull joined us a couple of months after Adkins so he's not been here five minutes yet. ?He talked about his systems being exactly what you outline.

Time will tell and there's no way of knowing yet.

 

[Hunkerby]

If Turnbull is such a good scout why did he not arrive with a list of players that he had completed full and complete dossiers on that were within our price and wage budget range?
It could be that he did just that but his recommendations were not accepted by the recruitment panel.
My understanding of modern professional scouting is that players can be evaluated using performance metrics such as the distance that they run during a game, percentage of passes completed, time to sprint 20 meters from a standing start, tackles made during a game etc.
The recruitment panel should be analyzing performance metrics and recruiting the best players that the transfer and wage budget can afford with an eye to team fit and possible improvement with playing experience.
When you look at the players recruited this season they look like a bunch of players that Adkins is familiar with rather than a set of players that have gone through a rigorous evaluation process.

 

[finlaytheblade]

If Turnbull is such a good scout why did he not arrive with a list of players that he had completed full and complete dossiers on that were within our price and wage budget range?
It could be that he did just that but his recommendations were not accepted by the recruitment panel.
My understanding of modern professional scouting is that players can be evaluated using performance metrics such as the distance that they run during a game, percentage of passes completed, time to sprint 20 meters from a standing start, tackles made during a game etc.
The recruitment panel should be analyzing performance metrics and recruiting the best players that the transfer and wage budget can afford with an eye to team fit and possible improvement with playing experience.
When you look at the players recruited this season they look like a bunch of players that Adkins is familiar with rather than a set of players that have gone through a rigorous evaluation process.

 

[finlaytheblade]

Give turnbull time hulk how much of the window was left to do the homework needed on any list of possible signings and then to negotiate
With agents and clubs? very little in my view and at the same time Adkins and his staff were reviewing what he had inherited amongst a group hit hard by long term injuries to star players.The next window is where he will hope to do most business Adkins has said as much.More mistakes are made when you rush these things and now Adkins and his staff hopefully will have got a blue print of what's needed ,we will soon find out!!.

 

[RMBlade]

What needs serious questioning and i've not heard it asked by anyone yet is why did the board sack Clough a week or so after the renewals were made? This fucked Adkins up big time. He was never going to be able to bring all the players in that he wanted because he was never going to get rid of some of the players that he didn't want due to the size of our squad, it was always going to be difficult for him and that's why he needs the time to rectify it.

I reckon they didn't think they could get Adkins so never intended on sacking Clough. Then the fans moaned and it looked possible to Adkins... Shame it didn't happen 2/3 weeks before hand.

 

[BushBlade]

If Turnbull is such a good scout why did he not arrive with a list of players that he had completed full and complete dossiers on that were within our price and wage budget range?
It could be that he did just that but his recommendations were not accepted by the recruitment panel.
My understanding of modern professional scouting is that players can be evaluated using performance metrics such as the distance that they run during a game, percentage of passes completed, time to sprint 20 meters from a standing start, tackles made during a game etc.
The recruitment panel should be analyzing performance metrics and recruiting the best players that the transfer and wage budget can afford with an eye to team fit and possible improvement with playing experience.
When you look at the players recruited this season they look like a bunch of players that Adkins is familiar with rather than a set of players that have gone through a rigorous evaluation process.

Performance metrics are only part of the story. Players still need to be watched and their backgrounds checked.
If the club took responsibility for recruitment we could control the process much better but we change scouts every time we change manager. It's no surprise there's little continuity.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

Hope this is a good thread.

Interesting that nobody has challenged the OP regarding the reality of having to sell quality players when the Premier League comes knocking. The key is turning the negatives into positives and using the money well.

I read recently that Southampton have moved on in that respect. It is now only the Top 5 that can just knock and take who they want. At least Spton can realistically ward off all the other 15 teams in the Prem and even the Top 5 have to offer fair prices these days.

With regard to replacements, Southampton have a similar Recruitment Panel to the one mentioned by Phipps for us. If the manager wants the panel to consider a new player he has to make his case to that panel and they add him to their own continuous list of prospects for if and when needed. Then they study the manager's prospect in exactly the same way they do every other prospect and the manager gets one vote on the panel.

The whole evolution of the club has been built in the knowledge and expectation that they will have to sell their best players from time to time until they become one of the Top 4/5 clubs.

But not always as soon as they reach a level of performance that attracts higher placed clubs and only for a good price. Walcott, Oxlade Chamberlain, Bale etc. were all sold to big clubs for big money when Southampton were on their arse. I expect that before they reached a level to convince Arsenal and Spurs to pay big money, they would have had some interest from decent championship and lower prem clubs but not offered those sums. They didn’t flog them all for £1-2 million after they’d shown a bit of promise. I accept that Adams will probably be sold at some point. I don’t accept that it has to be in the next 12 months. I think with his contract, we could hold onto him until Summer 2017 and if we are promoted by then, maybe longer. When he does go, it might then be to a huge Prem club for £10million or so and DCL might have developed into a quality replacement by then. Similarly, he could break his leg, or think he’s made it before he has and go onto be worth very little. I suspect however that he will be gone for £2-3 million before 1st September 2016.

 

[Kenilworth]

We're replacing Crewe as the third division feeder club. Yipppeeee

 

[Woodwardfan]

But not always as soon as they reach a level of performance that attracts higher placed clubs and only for a good price. Walcott, Oxlade Chamberlain, Bale etc. were all sold to big clubs for big money when Southampton were on their arse. I expect that before they reached a level to convince Arsenal and Spurs to pay big money, they would have had some interest from decent championship and lower prem clubs but not offered those sums. They didn’t flog them all for £1-2 million after they’d shown a bit of promise. I accept that Adams will probably be sold at some point. I don’t accept that it has to be in the next 12 months. I think with his contract, we could hold onto him until Summer 2017 and if we are promoted by then, maybe longer. When he does go, it might then be to a huge Prem club for £10million or so and DCL might have developed into a quality replacement by then. Similarly, he could break his leg, or think he’s made it before he has and go onto be worth very little. I suspect however that he will be gone for £2-3 million before 1st September 2016.

He might not be that good anyway, I reckon he has a bit to prove yet and there lies the very point you are making which is a good one.

Any Premier League club can speculatively spend a couple of million on a player and not lose too much sleep if he fails. For higher fees the player has to be outstanding with an early return in performances at the higher level. Only if Adams excels and scores loads of goals over a period can we expect a big fee. If we sell him in January we might get £1.5m. The January after we might get £5m - if he is good enough. Or we might get nothing if he's not.

Slew was at Adams' present stage when he went to Blackburn never to be seen again. Potential is one thing, skill is another, but putting it all together with drive and determination and achieving consistency of performance needs a brain and the right application.

It's early days for Adams and so far so good. However he is a passenger for big parts of some games and has a lot of work to do on ball control and concentration.

Murphy was nowhere near Premier League standard when he was with us and. Only if he goes on from this level and improves over the next year or so will he be worth any more than we got. The practical implications of keeping a player against his will are complex. A judgement also has to be made whether the player has it in him character-wise to make big steps up. I always thought Murphy was far less confident than he should have been considering his skills. He has the ability to play in the Prem but I'm not sure he has the bottle or the drive to make the most of what he's got.

 

[1danewhitehouse]

He might not be that good anyway, I reckon he has a bit to prove yet and there lies the very point you are making which is a good one.

Any Premier League club can speculatively spend a couple of million on a player and not lose too much sleep if he fails. For higher fees the player has to be outstanding with an early return in performances at the higher level. Only if Adams excels and scores loads of goals over a period can we expect a big fee. If we sell him in January we might get £1.5m. The January after we might get £5m - if he is good enough. Or we might get nothing if he's not.

Slew was at Adams' present stage when he went to Blackburn never to be seen again. Potential is one thing, skill is another, but putting it all together with drive and determination and achieving consistency of performance needs a brain and the right application.

It's early days for Adams and so far so good. However he is a passenger for big parts of some games and has a lot of work to do on ball control and concentration.

Murphy was nowhere near Premier League standard when he was with us and. Only if he goes on from this level and improves over the next year or so will he be worth any more than we got. The practical implications of keeping a player against his will are complex. A judgement also has to be made whether the player has it in him character-wise to make big steps up. I always thought Murphy was far less confident than he should have been considering his skills. He has the ability to play in the Prem but I'm not sure he has the bottle or the drive to make the most of what he's got.

I was only using Adams as an example as he is potentially our next big thing. Yes, keeping players when they want out can cause problems but I think generally, we are too soft when it comes to letting them go as soon as they start to prove their worth. We have developed them and given them their break. They are contractually obligated. I don't think 1 season or so is that much to ask when a player comes good and is attracting interest from above.