MoneyBall?

[TheGoatPenguin]

Hello all, first post.

It's been a fantastic season, a joy to watch after the previous (err... forgot how many years) too many. I've had my eye on the championship since the Beam Back from Northampton and been looking at rumours of signings ever since. Not sure why they're usually false or football issues prevent them happening.

Anyway to the point. If any of you have seen or recall a film called Moneyball (Brad Pitt, Jonah Hill, Baseball management, based on true events). The story goes a low rated poorly financed team aim to win the Baseball trophy (shrug ???) On a shoe string budget signing cheap unfavourable players (Too old, gambling addicts, injury prone ect..) All with good records or something to prove. It got me thinking with Wilders signings his he undertaking a simler practice?

O'Connell, Moore, Lafferty out of favour at their clubs.
Clarke, Wright, Hanson, Duffy not getting any younger but have quality.
Coutts, Freeman out of favour.
The Welsh one a gamble but something to prove, a good character (on the pitch) and hard worker.

Is this what to expect for future signings instead of the fancy names like Bogle, Morsy, Maddison? I think it maybe. It would make the Giles Coke rumour make sense.

It'll be an interesting summer and season ahead. Guessing we'll finish about 14th myself but looking forward to being back.

P.s. i think in the film the Baseball team did win the trophy whatever it was. Fingers crossed eh

 

[s4-blade]

Given enough time, Wilder could get stevie wonder playing like pele. Whoever he sign, I have total faith.

 

[Jesus_was_a_Blade]

P.s. i think in the film the Baseball team did win the trophy whatever it was. Fingers crossed eh

Sadly they lost in the play-offs, think even we'd struggle to find a way to do that this season...

*although they did set the longest unbeaten record.... here's hoping for next season

 

[stringjunior]

Hello all, first post.

It's been a fantastic season, a joy to watch after the previous (err... forgot how many years) too many. I've had my eye on the championship since the Beam Back from Northampton and been looking at rumours of signings ever since. Not sure why they're usually false or football issues prevent them happening.

Anyway to the point. If any of you have seen or recall a film called Moneyball (Brad Pitt, Jonah Hill, Baseball management, based on true events). The story goes a low rated poorly financed team aim to win the Baseball trophy (shrug ???) On a shoe string budget signing cheap unfavourable players (Too old, gambling addicts, injury prone ect..) All with good records or something to prove. It got me thinking with Wilders signings his he undertaking a simler practice?

O'Connell, Moore, Lafferty out of favour at their clubs.
Clarke, Wright, Hanson, Duffy not getting any younger but have quality.
Coutts, Freeman out of favour.
The Welsh one a gamble but something to prove, a good character (on the pitch) and hard worker.

Is this what to expect for future signings instead of the fancy names like Bogle, Morsy, Maddison? I think it maybe. It would make the Giles Coke rumour make sense.

It'll be an interesting summer and season ahead. Guessing we'll finish about 14th myself but looking forward to being back.

P.s. i think in the film the Baseball team did win the trophy whatever it was. Fingers crossed eh

Welcome. Good first effort. However you must know the score by now. You should pepper your posts with the words Desso, Messiah, Ched and Tuftyball. Then, and only then, will you feel like you belong.

I normally invoice for my advice. As you're new it's on me

 

[snootyfenooty]

Welcome. Good first effort. However you must know the score by now. You should pepper your posts with the words Desso, Messiah, Ched and Tuftyball. Then, and only then, will you feel like you belong.

And don't upset the "veteran" posters!

 

[Alfreton14Blade]

Interesting O/P. And loving he GoatPenguin combo. But nothing would make the Giles Coke rumour make sense.

 

[BushBlade]

Hello all, first post.

It's been a fantastic season, a joy to watch after the previous (err... forgot how many years) too many. I've had my eye on the championship since the Beam Back from Northampton and been looking at rumours of signings ever since. Not sure why they're usually false or football issues prevent them happening.

Anyway to the point. If any of you have seen or recall a film called Moneyball (Brad Pitt, Jonah Hill, Baseball management, based on true events). The story goes a low rated poorly financed team aim to win the Baseball trophy (shrug ???) On a shoe string budget signing cheap unfavourable players (Too old, gambling addicts, injury prone ect..) All with good records or something to prove. It got me thinking with Wilders signings his he undertaking a simler practice?

O'Connell, Moore, Lafferty out of favour at their clubs.
Clarke, Wright, Hanson, Duffy not getting any younger but have quality.
Coutts, Freeman out of favour.
The Welsh one a gamble but something to prove, a good character (on the pitch) and hard worker.

Is this what to expect for future signings instead of the fancy names like Bogle, Morsy, Maddison? I think it maybe. It would make the Giles Coke rumour make sense.

It'll be an interesting summer and season ahead. Guessing we'll finish about 14th myself but looking forward to being back.

P.s. i think in the film the Baseball team did win the trophy whatever it was. Fingers crossed eh

Moneyball, if I remember correctly was based on analysing stats, that often contradicted the perceived view of a player. By only looking at key stats for any particular role, it was possible to identify players who were thought to be crap and valued as such, because others were distracted by the things they were crap at, even if those things weren't actually that important to their output.

Bassett did very similar; not as statistical because football doesn't lend itself to statistical analysis as well as baseball does but based on getting players who could do a specific role, even if they weren't good at other things. Like Gannon, great delivery and set up a lot of our attacking play but slow and not good defensively. Didn't have to be because we had others to run about and kick people. That's how a team becomes stronger than the sum of the individuals.

Sorry if that's a bit muddled, I've got a cold or something and my brain's not working properly.

But yes, I'm agreeing with you.

 

[BushBlade]

Interesting O/P. But nothing would make the Giles Coke rumour make sense.

There's a Baxter joke there somewhere.

 

[Houston_Blade]

Hello all, first post.

It's been a fantastic season, a joy to watch after the previous (err... forgot how many years) too many. I've had my eye on the championship since the Beam Back from Northampton and been looking at rumours of signings ever since. Not sure why they're usually false or football issues prevent them happening.

Anyway to the point. If any of you have seen or recall a film called Moneyball (Brad Pitt, Jonah Hill, Baseball management, based on true events). The story goes a low rated poorly financed team aim to win the Baseball trophy (shrug ???) On a shoe string budget signing cheap unfavourable players (Too old, gambling addicts, injury prone ect..) All with good records or something to prove. It got me thinking with Wilders signings his he undertaking a simler practice?

O'Connell, Moore, Lafferty out of favour at their clubs.
Clarke, Wright, Hanson, Duffy not getting any younger but have quality.
Coutts, Freeman out of favour.
The Welsh one a gamble but something to prove, a good character (on the pitch) and hard worker.

Is this what to expect for future signings instead of the fancy names like Bogle, Morsy, Maddison? I think it maybe. It would make the Giles Coke rumour make sense.

It'll be an interesting summer and season ahead. Guessing we'll finish about 14th myself but looking forward to being back.

P.s. i think in the film the Baseball team did win the trophy whatever it was. Fingers crossed eh

No it's nothing like Moneyball, read the book. The whole premise of Moneyball is that the GM of the baseball team picked players purely based on stats and mostly rejects from other teams of misfits that didn't look like conventional baseball players. In Moneyball the point was just to prove that using stats Billy Beane managed to assemble a team on a shoestring who could beat the big boys in the league.

Wilder has assembled a decent team of footballers for the level we are at with an eye also on the next step, we aren't on a shoestring and we are the largest club in our division, very few parallels at all.

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

Hi, and welcome to the board.
Not sure it is the same to be honest. I'd disagree that Wilder has brought together pros who were under valued elsewhere. I think he's bought well but his signings well unknown nationally we're good performers at this level already in my opinion.
And of course the big revelation with moneyball is that it hasn't been as successful since it's first introduction in the US, where they did fall at the final hurdle (if memory serves me right).
Maybe next year will prove your view out, but I don't see Tufty as a big data and stats guy.

 

[Snowman]

I've always liked Giles Coke. Admittedly not seen him for a couple of years but he always seemed to have an eye for where his team-mate should be if that team mate had been thinking quicker if you know what I mean.

If you"re talking Baseball, I quite like "The Natural" and I could do with some of the "magic" from that film next year.

 

[TheGoatPenguin]

Thanks for all the replies and the welcome.

Yep not exactly the same as moneyball but it was just the unfavoured players we seem to have bought and the cheapness that recalled it to me.

As for Giles Coke wouldn't be on my list but always seemed an alright player against us and a good work ethic. Hope we are aiming higher though.

Think I'll annoy most posters. I like the Desso, i liked Jose Baxter (think he'd have done great in this side) shame about him being a prat and think McCabe is alright.

 

[Latters]

And don't upset the "veteran" posters!

Depends what you mean by "veteran" posters. I've been on here since it was created and nobody gives a shit what I think.

Unless you mean older posters. Thankfully I don't fall into that category!

 

[PittsburghBlade]

First of all, what a brilliant film Moneyball is.

Secondly, haven't swansea hired someone to do that?

Thirdly I don't think thats the case with the blades, in league one you sign a lot of out of favor players who can't get in sides regularly above, doesn't mean they're not good enough its just a fucking hard job to be the best at.

 

[Lard_Lad]

I think there's already been attempts to introduce it to football and it hasn't worked, theres too many aspects that go into being a good footballer that make it harder to judge a footballer on pure stats (which is, I believe, what they did in moneyball). If a player has a good batting average in Baseball that is all you need, in a footballer stats don't tell the full picture.

If I remember correctly the guy Brad Pitt played then went to the Red Sox and tried it there and I believe it failed. The owner of the Red Sox then bought Liverpool and I think they tried it there again getting the Brad Pitt guy and it failed at Liverpool.

 

[EOCostello]

For that matter, there have been recent discussions that the philosophy Beane was responsible for introducing in Oakland has now been adopted by many other teams, meaning that the "market inefficiencies" that he took advantage of no longer exist to nearly the same extent. It's a general manager strategy whose time has come and gone.

 

[Revolution]

I think there's already been attempts to introduce it to football and it hasn't worked, theres too many aspects that go into being a good footballer that make it harder to judge a footballer on pure stats (which is, I believe, what they did in moneyball). If a player has a good batting average in Baseball that is all you need, in a footballer stats don't tell the full picture.

If I remember correctly the guy Brad Pitt played then went to the Red Sox and tried it there and I believe it failed. The owner of the Red Sox then bought Liverpool and I think they tried it there again getting the Brad Pitt guy and it failed at Liverpool.

No, Billy Beane turned the Red Sox job down. He remains at Oakland to this day.

Beane has lost his edge over the years due to other teams doing the same things, other teams spending even more money, and poor trading by Beane himself.

 

[tomtheblade]

I can see where you're coming from but remember we're (arguably) the biggest team in League one, with one of the highest budgets. A more apt comparison would be someone like Fleetwood who have done an amazing job given their resources. We're more like the Yankees or redsox of this league.

I think some of our players are here because they weren't wanted at other clubs so i see the parallel there, but the simple fact is pretty much anyone playing at this level is here because theres some downside or other to them as a player, otherwise they'd be playing in a higher division.

You could make the argument that someone like Fleck is an exception to this rule, but thats only apparent now at the end of a fantastic season. This time last year he was leaving a side in Coventry who are heading into the abyss football wise, and despite being named their player of the year wasnt exactly a superstar.

I think next season your analogy may have more resonance, given the silly money being thrown around in the Championship.

Welcome to the forum

 

[Revolution]

One thing that unites Beane with Wilder - if you read Moneyball you will see no mention of one of the big reasons for Beane's success. He had the "Big 3" of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito pitching for him. None of them were signed or drafted by Beane. Oakland's star began to wane when these 3 sought free agency or were traded (though to be fair only Hudson would have been worth keeping in hindsight).

Wilder, by comparison, also had a big reason for his success which was there when he arrived: he had the best striker in the division on the books.

One theme of Moneyball which has influenced the way Beane works is focussing on what someone can do, rather than what they can't do. Wilder is like this with Sharp. The man scores goals, and that's the most important skill in the game, so Wilder stuck him in the side and let him get on with it, and was not worried about having a "balanced" attack or whatever else people were grumbling about back in the autumn. Wilder knows a good thing when he sees one. Same with Done. That guy ran himself into the ground for Wilder in the first half of the season. Done did not score much, but we won week in week out, so Wilder didn't worry about it.

The Biggest thing United have in common with Oakland in the Beane era? Both teams have made the playoffs 8 times - and never won. As Beane says, "My shit doesn't work in the playoffs". Neither does ours.

 

[Houston_Blade]

First of all, what a brilliant film Moneyball is.

Secondly, haven't swansea hired someone to do that?

Thirdly I don't think thats the case with the blades, in league one you sign a lot of out of favor players who can't get in sides regularly above, doesn't mean they're not good enough its just a fucking hard job to be the best at.

Brentfords chairman wanted to use stats to pick the team and sign players when Warburton resigned, Warburton was mad because he'd got them promoted on his style and this crackpot chairman said it was bollocks and that he just needed a manager to man manage the players and the picking of the team and tactics would all be done by stats. Could never work in football as in baseball there's the option of say having a 3rd baseman who is only good at being on 3rd base. Football requires more adaptability from players and the ability to perform multiple roles. I know bugger all about NFL but I assume it would be a good idea in that as well.

 

[Rusty view]

Brentfords chairman wanted to use stats to pick the team and sign players when Warburton resigned, Warburton was mad because he'd got them promoted on his style and this crackpot chairman said it was bollocks and that he just needed a manager to man manage the players and the picking of the team and tactics would all be done by stats. Could never work in football as in baseball there's the option of say having a 3rd baseman who is only good at being on 3rd base. Football requires more adaptability from players and the ability to perform multiple roles. I know bugger all about NFL but I assume it would be a good idea in that as well.

I think the Chairman use to be a City Trader, had earned enough and retired. Then as you say introduced this theory into Brentford.

As far as Blades, the players Wilder has bought have been astute signings. Players he knows and trusts, and also those he knows are good (Fleck). A handful haven't worked out but you're never going to get 100% success rate. One of the things I liked was he wasn't afraid to get rid or drop his own signings. Some managers have been to proud to drop those players who they signed and were shit. The biggest question for Wilder now is which of the seasons players can make the step up, and what other signings he can find to take us on to the next step.

 

[YorkBlade]

If you think the 'Moneyball' model works just look at how many World Series titles the Oakland A's have won under Billy Beane (the Brad Pitt character)...I will help you, zero.

 

[Revolution]

If you think the 'Moneyball' model works just look at how many World Series titles the Oakland A's have won under Billy Beane (the Brad Pitt character)...I will help you, zero.

The answer to this is that the playoffs contain a lot of randomness. The best team does not always win. The team with the best record does not always win.

What the As were doing worked very well from 2001 to 2006 in that they made the playoffs 4 years out of 6 (missing in another year by one game) with a significantly lower payroll than their competitors.

It has worked less well since for the reasons set out in my earlier post.

 

[BushBlade]

I think the Chairman use to be a City Trader, had earned enough and retired. Then as you say introduced this theory into Brentford.

As far as Blades, the players Wilder has bought have been astute signings. Players he knows and trusts, and also those he knows are good (Fleck). A handful haven't worked out but you're never going to get 100% success rate. One of the things I liked was he wasn't afraid to get rid or drop his own signings. Some managers have been to proud to drop those players who they signed and were shit. The biggest question for Wilder now is which of the seasons players can make the step up, and what other signings he can find to take us on to the next step.

Yes, he's a mathematician who developed mathematical models for trading and is now trying to work on models for football. I heard he'd even come up with formulas for when they should make substitutions.

 

[PittsburghBlade]

The moneyball model was extremely successful at the time, if you determine success in baseball as only by winning the world series you might never enjoy a season again.

 

[Alfreton14Blade]

On the baseball theme, I read a superb article just recently about a classic baseball match involving one of the greatest (if not the greatest) comebacks ever in a single game.

There was a quote from the commentator summing up at the end of the game which struck me as pretty much encapsulating our season here. It went:
"Well, that may only happen once in a lifetime. And maybe even less than that."

Quite.