ucandomagic
Active Member
A decent quality game, if uninspiring, but Norwich really suit us. They don’t press too hard and they don’t like it when we do. Nobody was really outstanding, but everybody was decent enough. Big shout out to the Ref’s Assistant (usually call them Linos but more respect to this one). Everybody (including me) thought it was offside and we’d got away with one, but that dude was spot on – and it was even more impressive because Hanley was a good way across from McA, who must have blocked his view a bit. We deserved the points though, as both the ones that hit the bar could easily have gone in.
Anyway, with an Easter Present from Uncle Colin the effect of the game on the season is more important than any of the details of the game.
Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 38 games, on 73 points we are just 1 point behind our 74 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. Game 38 that year was away at Leeds – but nobody remembers that game do they?!
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 73 points we are now a point ahead of my Autos Certain line. This line is for 90 points and almost certain automatics – but on a few points below this line we would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. I’ve suggested in my run-in table below that 85 should be enough now.
Graph 2:
Next, the League Table, and back to a 6 point gap over Boro in third place. A 6-point gap and 8 games to go, so let’s just win the next 3 and go to Wembley with it almost in the bag. Today was our highest-ranking away win - until we go to Turf Moor!
League Table:
Finally, my Run-In Table. Those of you who have read my earlier threads will recall that I assume an absolute maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to match the best of them.
The Run-In Table below shows that Teesside Town & Eric’s Lot now both have a projected credible maximum of 84.5. So, our target to beat that is now 12 points from 8 games at a ppg of 1.5. I’ll keep putting the updated target ppg in the thread title after each matchday.
Run-In Table:
Anyway, the big question at present is whether to fork out £20 for me and the lad to get in The Green Man at Wembley. It is for charity, and I don’t know where else to go, but I think it’s a bit rough them not doing the same on the Sunday for the posh twats from Brighton! They get in for free.
Magic Days – or as Hecky says “Listen, times like this are what you dream about”.
UTB & Slava Ukraini
Anyway, with an Easter Present from Uncle Colin the effect of the game on the season is more important than any of the details of the game.
Graph 1 is the multiple comparison graph with our best recent Championship seasons. Graph 1 shows that after 38 games, on 73 points we are just 1 point behind our 74 points in Wilder’s promotion season in 18/19. Game 38 that year was away at Leeds – but nobody remembers that game do they?!
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that on 73 points we are now a point ahead of my Autos Certain line. This line is for 90 points and almost certain automatics – but on a few points below this line we would still have a very high probability of getting automatics this season. I’ve suggested in my run-in table below that 85 should be enough now.
Graph 2:
Next, the League Table, and back to a 6 point gap over Boro in third place. A 6-point gap and 8 games to go, so let’s just win the next 3 and go to Wembley with it almost in the bag. Today was our highest-ranking away win - until we go to Turf Moor!
League Table:
Finally, my Run-In Table. Those of you who have read my earlier threads will recall that I assume an absolute maximum credible 2.5 points per game (ppg) in the run-in for our nearest rivals, and then calculate what we would need to do to match the best of them.
The Run-In Table below shows that Teesside Town & Eric’s Lot now both have a projected credible maximum of 84.5. So, our target to beat that is now 12 points from 8 games at a ppg of 1.5. I’ll keep putting the updated target ppg in the thread title after each matchday.
Run-In Table:
Anyway, the big question at present is whether to fork out £20 for me and the lad to get in The Green Man at Wembley. It is for charity, and I don’t know where else to go, but I think it’s a bit rough them not doing the same on the Sunday for the posh twats from Brighton! They get in for free.
Magic Days – or as Hecky says “Listen, times like this are what you dream about”.
UTB & Slava Ukraini