ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
I have delayed the graphical analysis of Matchday 14 from Tuesday until all the Matchday 14 games had been played on Thursday and the XG data was in today at 4pm.
In the last 2 games we have really started to learn the best way that we can to exploit big Kieff’s power. Harrison’s classical left peg has clinically earned us points and showed what a superb buy he really is. Watching the Robins game I had just commented that Peck, Brooks and Campbell were looking below par and Wilder immediately subbed all 3, scary! I really hope big Kieff can manage at least some time against Wendy, him coming off at Ashton Gate was the only real downside of the last 3 games.
As usual, Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 28 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now bang on my Autos Promotion schedule – and that with a 2-point deduction.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 28 points (with a 2-point deduction) we are now 2 ahead of the 26 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 3 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and still 8 points behind Warnock’s great start in 05/06.
So this is our best Championship start since 2005, and is better than our last 2 promotion seasons – all with that deduction!
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are now in 2nd place, 2 points ahead of Leeds and 4 ahead of Burnley and, without the deduction, we would be level top on points with Sunderland. Wow!
League Table:
Moving on to XG data - this is my review of Blades XG performance and general Championship XG stats. The purpose of this is simply to assess how teams are performing relative to their XG data – ie if a team’s results are better than their XG data it would suggest that they are overperforming and likely to slip back – and vice versa.
On Tuesday November 5th we beat Bristol City 2-1 at Ashton Gate.
The XG data for the Bristol City game was Robins 1.7 - Blades 1.2
Graph 3 shows a comparison of the progress of our actual goals for and against with our XG expected goals for and against over our 14 games so far. XG says that over those 14 games we should have scored 18.4 and conceded 12.1 and we have actually scored 18 and conceded 7. So, we are still performing very close to our XG in scoring and much better than average against our XGA in defence for the chances that we are creating and allowing.
Our biggest area for improvement is definitely creating chances rather than finishing them. To put it in context, we are only 9th highest in XG (but that has improved from 13th over the last couple of games).
Graph 3:
Chart 1 is a measure of over/under Championship performance based on general chances created/allowed. The numbers in Chart 1 are a measure of a team’s expected goal difference against their actual goal difference, ie (XG-XGA) minus actual goal difference. The detail of this doesn't matter, but in my mind the top third of this chart are overperforming and could be expected to slip down in league position, unless they have an exceptionally clinical strikeforce and/or an exceptional defence and goalkeeper. The middle third are probably matching the chances they create and allow, and the bottom third are underperforming and could be expected to move up the league unless they have a particularly poor strikeforce and/or a particularly weak goalkeeper.
Chart 1:
So, performance-wise, the Blades’ actual performance this season is slightly better than their XG performance. The 2 teams most notable from Chart 1 are Middlesbrough and Sunderland. While our goals scored are 95% of our XG, Middlesbrough are massively underscoring their XG, their goals scored is only 72% of their XG. Sunderland are quite the opposite – their goals scored are 131% of their XG.
Chart 2 is the XTable - based on both team’s XG’s in matches played – alongside the actual League Table. Blades are 3rd in the XTable and 2nd in the actual League table so, as observed above, our results pretty accurately reflect our XG stats. Blackburn are the biggest overperformers here – being 10th in the actual table but 19th in the XTable. Coventry are the exact opposite, being 6th in the XTable but 17th in the actual table - a stat that has just cost Robins his job..
Chart 2:
So, overall the stats continue to suggest that our results are a reasonably accurate reflection of our XG performance and represent an automatic promotion position. Our poor creation of good chances means that our position is based firmly on a sound defence. As mentioned, we are 9th best in XG, but we are now 3rd best in XGA, behind only Leeds and Burnley. Our average XGA of 0.86 goals per game is a fairly good figure, but we are even outperforming that by delivering an actual average of 0.5 goals against per game, a figure only beaten by Burnley.
Teams like Sunderland, Burnley and Oxford continue to overachieve significantly against their performance and might be expected to slip down the table, whereas teams like Middlesbrough, QPR, Luton, Portsmouth and Coventry are significantly underachieving against their performance and would be expected to move up the table.
Our next game is of course against Wendy on Sunday lunchtime. They have scored 5 goals in their 6 away games with an XG of 4.1.
Overall, the stats would suggest a 2-0 or 2-1 Blades win. I'd take that and move on - I hate derbies!
So that’s it for another week.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
In the last 2 games we have really started to learn the best way that we can to exploit big Kieff’s power. Harrison’s classical left peg has clinically earned us points and showed what a superb buy he really is. Watching the Robins game I had just commented that Peck, Brooks and Campbell were looking below par and Wilder immediately subbed all 3, scary! I really hope big Kieff can manage at least some time against Wendy, him coming off at Ashton Gate was the only real downside of the last 3 games.
As usual, Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 28 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now bang on my Autos Promotion schedule – and that with a 2-point deduction.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 28 points (with a 2-point deduction) we are now 2 ahead of the 26 points that we had under Wilder in 18/19, 3 ahead of Hecky in 22/23 and still 8 points behind Warnock’s great start in 05/06.
So this is our best Championship start since 2005, and is better than our last 2 promotion seasons – all with that deduction!
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are now in 2nd place, 2 points ahead of Leeds and 4 ahead of Burnley and, without the deduction, we would be level top on points with Sunderland. Wow!
League Table:
Moving on to XG data - this is my review of Blades XG performance and general Championship XG stats. The purpose of this is simply to assess how teams are performing relative to their XG data – ie if a team’s results are better than their XG data it would suggest that they are overperforming and likely to slip back – and vice versa.
On Tuesday November 5th we beat Bristol City 2-1 at Ashton Gate.
The XG data for the Bristol City game was Robins 1.7 - Blades 1.2
Graph 3 shows a comparison of the progress of our actual goals for and against with our XG expected goals for and against over our 14 games so far. XG says that over those 14 games we should have scored 18.4 and conceded 12.1 and we have actually scored 18 and conceded 7. So, we are still performing very close to our XG in scoring and much better than average against our XGA in defence for the chances that we are creating and allowing.
Our biggest area for improvement is definitely creating chances rather than finishing them. To put it in context, we are only 9th highest in XG (but that has improved from 13th over the last couple of games).
Graph 3:
Chart 1 is a measure of over/under Championship performance based on general chances created/allowed. The numbers in Chart 1 are a measure of a team’s expected goal difference against their actual goal difference, ie (XG-XGA) minus actual goal difference. The detail of this doesn't matter, but in my mind the top third of this chart are overperforming and could be expected to slip down in league position, unless they have an exceptionally clinical strikeforce and/or an exceptional defence and goalkeeper. The middle third are probably matching the chances they create and allow, and the bottom third are underperforming and could be expected to move up the league unless they have a particularly poor strikeforce and/or a particularly weak goalkeeper.
Chart 1:
So, performance-wise, the Blades’ actual performance this season is slightly better than their XG performance. The 2 teams most notable from Chart 1 are Middlesbrough and Sunderland. While our goals scored are 95% of our XG, Middlesbrough are massively underscoring their XG, their goals scored is only 72% of their XG. Sunderland are quite the opposite – their goals scored are 131% of their XG.
Chart 2 is the XTable - based on both team’s XG’s in matches played – alongside the actual League Table. Blades are 3rd in the XTable and 2nd in the actual League table so, as observed above, our results pretty accurately reflect our XG stats. Blackburn are the biggest overperformers here – being 10th in the actual table but 19th in the XTable. Coventry are the exact opposite, being 6th in the XTable but 17th in the actual table - a stat that has just cost Robins his job..
Chart 2:
So, overall the stats continue to suggest that our results are a reasonably accurate reflection of our XG performance and represent an automatic promotion position. Our poor creation of good chances means that our position is based firmly on a sound defence. As mentioned, we are 9th best in XG, but we are now 3rd best in XGA, behind only Leeds and Burnley. Our average XGA of 0.86 goals per game is a fairly good figure, but we are even outperforming that by delivering an actual average of 0.5 goals against per game, a figure only beaten by Burnley.
Teams like Sunderland, Burnley and Oxford continue to overachieve significantly against their performance and might be expected to slip down the table, whereas teams like Middlesbrough, QPR, Luton, Portsmouth and Coventry are significantly underachieving against their performance and would be expected to move up the table.
Our next game is of course against Wendy on Sunday lunchtime. They have scored 5 goals in their 6 away games with an XG of 4.1.
Overall, the stats would suggest a 2-0 or 2-1 Blades win. I'd take that and move on - I hate derbies!
So that’s it for another week.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
