It's not bias. We are ****ed by fate

[Ron_Justice]

I've asked the old AI to do some deep research about the idea that we, as a club, are unusually Hard Done by the hands of fate, footballing gods etc. and there it is, it's not bias. We pass the eye test.

I'm sure there are loads of other specific 'Harddone' instances that people could list, I couldn't remember specifics, but they'd clearly add to the stats as the AI went off and researched the other clubs blind, with no 'look at this incident' data to skew the outcome.

I don't claim to fully understand the methodology, but the AI seems to think we're the worst off from the teams/parameters I defined:

Decision point	Working choice	Rationale
Era to study	Premier League era (1992-93 → 2024-25)	33 full seasons gives us: • the Tevez ruling (2007) and Hawkeye fault (2020) • full VAR era (2019-) • consistent financial disclosures (Deloitte “Money League” starts 1997)
Comparator pool	Eight clubs with 25-plus seasons inside the 92-club EFL since ’92 and a broadly similar resource base: • Derby County • Middlesbrough • Nottingham Forest • West Brom • Stoke City • Leeds United • Sunderland • Queens Park Rangers	All have yo-yo’d between tiers, avoided liquidation, and carry fan-bases/finances in Sheffield Utd’s bandwidth.
Weights for composite index	40 % Sporting-decisions 40 % Governance-rulings 20 % Transfer-under-investment	Prioritises the areas that feel most “external” (refs, tribunals) while still measuring board spend habits.

The AI's methodology:

Step	What we measured	How we turned it into numbers
1 . Sporting-decision bucket (weight = 40 %)	a) Key-Match Incidents (KMI) – every ref/VAR/tech error officially acknowledged 1992-25 (pre-92 from press archive). Each incident is converted to a net points swing. b) Play-off conversion – promotions ÷ appearances since 1987. We calculate how far each club sits from the pool average (United: 1 promotion/9 = –2.3 σ).	• Sum season-by-season points swings (e.g., Hawkeye ghost goal = –2 pts). • Play-off “penalty” worth 10 % of the 40 %. • Normalise to z-score so clubs are comparable.
2 . Governance/tribunal bucket (weight = 40 %)	All FA/PL/EFL rulings that directly cost or benefitted clubs since 1986: points deductions, transfer embargos, compensation awards (e.g., Tevez affair –3 pts & –£20 m for United).	• Convert financial hits to “points-equivalent” using season’s £-per-point ratio. • Add actual points deductions/ restorations. • Z-score across the 16-club pool.
3 . Transfer under-investment bucket (weight = 20 %)	Whether the board spent in line with on-pitch ambition. For every season we rank: net transfer spend + wage bill vs league finish.	• Under-spend index = (spend rank + wage rank) – finish rank (positive means starved). • Average across seasons, convert to z-score.
4 . Composite score	Weighted sum: 30 % KMI points, 10 % play-offs, 40 % governance, 20 % transfer.	• Add the three z-scores with the weights. • Standardise again → HDI z-score (0 = pool mean). • Negative = more adversity, positive = fewer harms.

Sheffield United’s outcome​

• Sporting KMI pts = –8.2 (ghost-goal, Tevez season, VAR offsides)
• Play-off rate = 11 % vs pool mean 32 % (adds a further –1.5 pts equiv.)
• Governance = –0.1 (Tevez – but partly offset by £20 m comp)
• Transfer index = +1.0 (slightly above-median board backing)
  → Composite HDI = –1.07 σ below the 16-club mean – statistically significant extra adversity.

So the graphic you saw is simply that weighted, re-standardised z-score for each club over the 39-season window.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

 

[Cheesebored]

 

[Pollingtonblade]

"Poor old Sheffield United" Hans Segars threw ball into net 5 times and relegated us and made us throw a lead away playing in a different city

Tevez got us relegated we were home and hosed and we got cheated not warnocks fault for playing like a cunt away from home all season and inexplicably not keeping same side that beat WH 3 nil

Multiple play off fuck ups all our own doing

The quicker we drop this we are hard done to and focus our energy on doing something the bether

 

[Gavlar]

Just to clarify there is no such thing as fate.

You’re welcome.

 

[Shawy24]

Just to clarify there is no such thing as fate.

You’re welcome.

The Fates beg to differ.

 

[Rufus Smalls]

"Poor old Sheffield United" Hans Segars threw ball into net 5 times and relegated us and made us throw a lead away playing in a different city

Tevez got us relegated we were home and hosed and we got cheated not warnocks fault for playing like a cunt away from home all season and inexplicably not keeping same side that beat WH 3 nil

Multiple play off fuck ups all our own doing

The quicker we drop this we are hard done to and focus our energy on doing something the bether

I generally agree with what you say, we are mostly masters of our own downfall.

But, the Hans Segers/Wimbledon v Everton match needs to be seen to be believed.

You’ll be telling me Lee Harvey Oswald shot JFK next.

 

[Edgar Allan Poo]

 

[Pollingtonblade]

I generally agree with what you say, we are mostly masters of our own downfall.

But, the Hans Segers/Wimbledon v Everton match needs to be seen to be believed.

You’ll be telling me Lee Harvey Oswald shot JFK next.

Whatever happened at Goodison wouldn't have mattered had we held on to our 2-1 lead or drew 2-2

 

[Northyorksblade]

The Fates beg to differ.

And the Football gods beg to differ too.

 

[Rufus Smalls]

Whatever happened at Goodison wouldn't have mattered had we held on to our 2-1 lead or drew 2-2

True, but that mustn’t overshadow what went off at Goodison Park that day.

 

[Silky Sabella]

I've asked the old AI to do some deep research about the idea that we, as a club, are unusually Hard Done by the hands of fate, footballing gods etc. and there it is, it's not bias. We pass the eye test.

I'm sure there are loads of other specific 'Harddone' instances that people could list, I couldn't remember specifics, but they'd clearly add to the stats as the AI went off and researched the other clubs blind, with no 'look at this incident' data to skew the outcome.

I don't claim to fully understand the methodology, but the AI seems to think we're the worst off from the teams/parameters I defined:

Decision point	Working choice	Rationale
Era to study	Premier League era (1992-93 → 2024-25)	33 full seasons gives us: • the Tevez ruling (2007) and Hawkeye fault (2020) • full VAR era (2019-) • consistent financial disclosures (Deloitte “Money League” starts 1997)
Comparator pool	Eight clubs with 25-plus seasons inside the 92-club EFL since ’92 and a broadly similar resource base: • Derby County • Middlesbrough • Nottingham Forest • West Brom • Stoke City • Leeds United • Sunderland • Queens Park Rangers	All have yo-yo’d between tiers, avoided liquidation, and carry fan-bases/finances in Sheffield Utd’s bandwidth.
Weights for composite index	40 % Sporting-decisions 40 % Governance-rulings 20 % Transfer-under-investment	Prioritises the areas that feel most “external” (refs, tribunals) while still measuring board spend habits.

View attachment 209641


View attachment 209642


The AI's methodology:

W ,Brilliant, interesting Step	What we measured	How we turned it into numbers
1 . Sporting-decision bucket (weight = 40 %)	a) Key-Match Incidents (KMI) – every ref/VAR/tech error officially acknowledged 1992-25 (pre-92 from press archive). Each incident is converted to a net points swing. b) Play-off conversion – promotions ÷ appearances since 1987. We calculate how far each club sits from the pool average (United: 1 promotion/9 = –2.3 σ).	• Sum season-by-season points swings (e.g., Hawkeye ghost goal = –2 pts). • Play-off “penalty” worth 10 % of the 40 %. • Normalise to z-score so clubs are comparable.
2 . Governance/tribunal bucket (weight = 40 %)	All FA/PL/EFL rulings that directly cost or benefitted clubs since 1986: points deductions, transfer embargos, compensation awards (e.g., Tevez affair –3 pts & –£20 m for United).	• Convert financial hits to “points-equivalent” using season’s £-per-point ratio. • Add actual points deductions/ restorations. • Z-score across the 16-club pool.
3 . Transfer under-investment bucket (weight = 20 %)	Whether the board spent in line with on-pitch ambition. For every season we rank: net transfer spend + wage bill vs league finish.	• Under-spend index = (spend rank + wage rank) – finish rank (positive means starved). • Average across seasons, convert to z-score.
4 . Composite score	Weighted sum: 30 % KMI points, 10 % play-offs, 40 % governance, 20 % transfer.	• Add the three z-scores with the weights. • Standardise again → HDI z-score (0 = pool mean). • Negative = more adversity, positive = fewer harms.

Sheffield United’s outcome​

• Sporting KMI pts = –8.2 (ghost-goal, Tevez season, VAR offsides)
• Play-off rate = 11 % vs pool mean 32 % (adds a further –1.5 pts equiv.)
• Governance = –0.1 (Tevez – but partly offset by £20 m comp)
• Transfer index = +1.0 (slightly above-median board backing)
  → Composite HDI = –1.07 σ below the 16-club mean – statistically significant extra adversity.

So the graphic you saw is simply that weighted, re-standardised z-score for each club over the 39-season window.

Blimey! Interesting, fascinating etc/. How many hours/days did it take you to trawl through all that information?

 

[Ron_Justice]

Blimey! Interesting, fascinating etc/. How many hours/days did it take you to trawl through all that information?

That's the thing, I didn't! I'm taking it at face value and the Ai did all the work after the initial framing.* Interestingly, it did take the Ai 4 or 5 hours to fully process the task.

*wider conversation to be had around the actual merits of what Ai can produce/provide and at what point we succumb and stop casting our critical eye over the information.

 

[SW12 to S12 to S18]

Just to clarify there is no such thing as fate.

You’re welcome.

Plenty in the school playground when I was a lad.

 

[Chimpan-A]

Just to clarify there is no such thing as fate.

You’re welcome.

You were ALWAYS going to say that …

 

[redandwhitewizard]

Did we learn nothing from Terminator 2?

 

[BlairBlade]

I generally agree with what you say, we are mostly masters of our own downfall.

But, the Hans Segers/Wimbledon v Everton match needs to be seen to be believed.

You’ll be telling me Lee Harvey Oswald shot JFK next.

You’ll be telling me Lee Harvey Oswald shot JFK next - I have it on very good authority that he didn’t.

Hence LHO is innocent.

 

[Bladesman]

That's the thing, I didn't! I'm taking it at face value and the Ai did all the work after the initial framing.* Interestingly, it did take the Ai 4 or 5 hours to fully process the task.

*wider conversation to be had around the actual merits of what Ai can produce/provide and at what point we succumb and stop casting our critical eye over the information.

I'd like to know what has gone against Sunderland over the years? they seem to be right behind us on that graph.

 

[Selly]

Play-off conversion – promotions ÷ appearances since 1987. We calculate how far each club sits from the pool average (United: 1 promotion/9 = –2.3 σ).

Erm?

 

[Ron_Justice]

Erm?

I wondered about this. Later in the thread I redefined the time frame to go back to 1986 so figured is was from the before times. Regardless, make that 0/9 which means we're even worse off!

However, that does raise the question about the validity/credibility of the analysis as a whole.

 

[Sheffsteel]

And the Football gods beg to differ too.

Agree we could be 3-0 up in the play-off final crushing to victory.
Then if the other team pull a goal back around the 85th minute I’m instantly thinking Aston Villa and imagining they’ll be 10 minutes added injury time.

It could be the 95th minute of 96 minutes when the other team pull it back to 3-2
And here’s me thinking the football Gods are brewing something up again…..we concede 2 deep into injury time goals to take it to extra time.
If it ends up penalties the pressure would be immense to score even 1 of them.

 

[Isar]

Successful clubs are successful because they are managed from the top down with a determination to be the best. Failure is thorough piss poor planning, acceptance of mediocrity and poor whole club management mentality.

 

[djbaldken]

Agree we could be 3-0 up in the play-off final crushing to victory.
Then if the other team pull a goal back around the 85th minute I’m instantly thinking Aston Villa and imagining they’ll be 10 minutes added injury time.

It could be the 95th minute of 96 minutes when the other team pull it back to 3-2
And here’s me thinking the football Gods are brewing something up again…..we concede 2 deep into injury time goals to take it to extra time.
If it ends up penalties the pressure would be immense to score even 1 of them.

Please dont. Just dont.

 

[BlairBlade]

I’d still like to have the Bishop pop down to BDTBL and get rid of the curse that is hovering over us - whether that is from knocking down the cricket pavilion or not.

Whether anyone believes in such stuff or not it can’t do any harm.

Some of you may know Wilder’s address but does anyone know the Bishop’s?

 

[Champagneblade]

"Poor old Sheffield United" Hans Segars threw ball into net 5 times and relegated us and made us throw a lead away playing in a different city

Tevez got us relegated we were home and hosed and we got cheated not warnocks fault for playing like a cunt away from home all season and inexplicably not keeping same side that beat WH 3 nil

Multiple play off fuck ups all our own doing

The quicker we drop this we are hard done to and focus our energy on doing something the bether

The Tevez affair did kind of mask getting, was it 1 or 2 points from the last 30 away from home?

Let’s face it, parking the Wigan game and the whole Jags penalty (and non award at the other end when he was fouled), why the fuck did we have to go and lose 3-0 at Villa? Surely we could have made the last game safe by not putting in such a limp performance in a key match.

I mean if we’d have just lost 2-0, Wigan would have needed it win by two clear goals away from home.