How much luck is there in choosing a manager

[Boxer Blade]

Here we are again, possibly looking for a new manager, I like most everybody else was delighted to get Adkins, he has obviously faired badly,some no doubt will say it more strongly, so it got me thinking, how much luck is there in choosing the right man, adkins cv was better than we could have hoped for.reading the paper yesterday was an article by Tina Moore,ex of Bobby Moore, apparently in the early 70's he was offered the job by Elton John to take on the managers job of Watford, whilst on holiday he read that somebody called Graham Taylor had been appointed, he went on to be a great success, was this a skillful or lucky appointment because if anybody offered the ex England captain and golden boy the job you would think they would rip your hand off, turned out right though, luck? or a skillfull decision.?

 

[William Henry Foulkes]

Here we are again, possibly looking for a new manager, I like most everybody else was delighted to get Adkins, he has obviously faired badly,some no doubt will say it more strongly, so it got me thinking, how much luck is there in choosing the right man, adkins cv was better than we could have hoped for.reading the paper yesterday was an article by Tina Moore,ex of Bobby Moore, apparently in the early 70's he was offered the job by Elton John to take on the managers job of Watford, whilst on holiday he read that somebody called Graham Taylor had been appointed, he went on to be a great success, was this a skillful or lucky appointment because if anybody offered the ex England captain and golden boy the job you would think they would rip your hand off, turned out right though, luck? or a skillfull decision.?

I don't think we'll know whether Adkins was the right decision till next season - if he's still here.

And I really hope he is, because if he can't sort it, then it may be that the job is beyond anyone.

 

[BeatleBlade]

I don't think we'll know whether Adkins was the right decision till next season - if he's still here.

And I really hope he is, because if he can't sort it, then it may be that the job is beyond anyone.

Exactly.
While some people are using this failure to claim that the man has suddenly become a crap manager I think it's closer to what you are saying. He's made errors this season but there's been a lot going against him that he can't help. He's been given a dreadful hand and needs to be given time next year to get it right. If he can't get it right, then who on earth can?

 

[jt64]

Not much, just need people higher up to veto when they try to make retarded decisions re: buying players

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

Exactly.
While some people are using this failure to claim that the man has suddenly become a crap manager I think it's closer to what you are saying. He's made errors this season but there's been a lot going against him that he can't help. He's been given a dreadful hand and needs to be given time next year to get it right. If he can't get it right, then who on earth can?

Someone who could see we needed two centre halves before we'd even kicked a ball in anger and wouldn't need to have a 1-1 to decide if the dross needed the boot.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

Doesn't matter who you get in, nobody can revive this football club. It's fucking cursed.

Don't know how or why but it's cursed.

We could sign Cristiano Ronaldo and I swear to God he'd turn to shite the moment he jogged out onto the Bramall Lane turf.

 

[BeatleBlade]

Someone who could see we needed two centre halves before we'd even kicked a ball in anger and wouldn't need to have a 1-1 to decide if the dross needed the boot.

The one to one isn't about deciding who to let go. It's about letting them know if they are staying or going in a professional manner.
He could have got in 2 centre halves earlier but we got Edgar after one game, negotiations were already in place before Gillingham.
One of the problems with getting a new manager is that it means the players get a bit of a lifeline. This can be a bad or a good thing. A fresh start could have worked well when so many players fell out with last years manager and the budget was so small. Unfortunately, it didn't work out that way.

 

[Gavlar]

Here we are again, possibly looking for a new manager, I like most everybody else was delighted to get Adkins, he has obviously faired badly,some no doubt will say it more strongly, so it got me thinking, how much luck is there in choosing the right man, adkins cv was better than we could have hoped for.reading the paper yesterday was an article by Tina Moore,ex of Bobby Moore, apparently in the early 70's he was offered the job by Elton John to take on the managers job of Watford, whilst on holiday he read that somebody called Graham Taylor had been appointed, he went on to be a great success, was this a skillful or lucky appointment because if anybody offered the ex England captain and golden boy the job you would think they would rip your hand off, turned out right though, luck? or a skillfull decision.?

Its a great question. Look at Ranieri. Nobody and I mean nobody would have expected him to achieve what he has achieved at Leicester in such a short time, there indeed has to be some luck in it.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

The one to one isn't about deciding who to let go. It's about letting them know if they are staying or going in a professional manner.
He could have got in 2 centre halves earlier but we got Edgar after one game, negotiations were already in place before Gillingham.
One of the problems with getting a new manager is that it means the players get a bit of a lifeline. This can be a bad or a good thing. A fresh start could have worked well when so many players fell out with last years manager and the budget was so small. Unfortunately, it didn't work out that way.

But in his interview on Friday he said he was going to get a feel for how the players felt and how the wanted their careers to go.

Friday I was expecting him to say "next week we will sit down with the players who are going, tell them and then start the re-building exercise", not "we will be sending them home with their summer fitness plans after we have given them their end of season medical".

How they keep fit and how fit they are should be someone else's problem, not ours.

He has no plans to get rid of the dross.

 

[grafikhaus]

It is a great question and the example of Bobby Moore shows that luck does play a part. Watford were the lucky ones in getting Taylor instead of Moore as practically the entire 1966 World Cup winning team went on to become managers and failed miserably. Naturally the Blades had to play a part in this with Martin Peters (there were rumours that we'd approached George Cohen but he saw more future in becoming an undertaker...)

But what you can do is perform due diligence and background checks. If United had done that with Robson, for example, they'd have put a padlock on the boardroom drinks cabinet. And Adkins? So 'in demand' that they probably didn't notice the 'currently unemployed' on his CV.

 

[Houso]

Doesn't matter who you get in, nobody can revive this football club. It's fucking cursed.

Don't know how or why but it's cursed.

We could sign Cristiano Ronaldo and I swear to God he'd turn to shite the moment he jogged out onto the Bramall Lane turf.

This. All this.

We either have awful awful luck, or McCabe said fuck off to a Romany Lucky Heather seller a decade ago.

Managers, players, princes... they all come here with huge reputations and invariably turn to dog muck. Many of them will leave the Lane and have better careers at a higher level than we will find ourselves for the next decade.

Happy fucking Monday.

 

[LoughboroBlade]

Its a great question. Look at Ranieri. Nobody and I mean nobody would have expected him to achieve what he has achieved at Leicester in such a short time, there indeed has to be some luck in it.

Imagine if he'd been appointed here. He'd have lasted two months before people would have been getting annoyed by his positive interviews where he said very little, and others would be criticising his CV for lack of success, citing the Greece job as evidence that he had lost any ability he had. We'd have also come up with a comedy nickname too, because we're hilarious like that.

At the stage we're at, if we do make a change we probably need someone to drag us out of this league in their own way kicking and screaming while able to accept the fact they may alienate half the fan base in the process through either not giving an interesting enough interview or pretty enough football. While the removal of Clough divided, the appointment of Adkins seemed as near unanimous an appointment as we could feasibly expect. There are always elements of luck involved in managerial appointments, as there is with player recruitment. A good player may do poorly here but better elsewhere due to numerous factors. The same is true for managers, though there are virtually zero examples where managers that have gone on to do better with other teams – Bruce and Warnock arguably being the only two in my lifetime.

 

[BeatleBlade]

But in his interview on Friday he said he was going to get a feel for how the players felt and how the wanted their careers to go.

Friday I was expecting him to say "next week we will sit down with the players who are going, tell them and then start the re-building exercise", not "we will be sending them home with their summer fitness plans after we have given them their end of season medical".

How they keep fit and how fit they are should be someone else's problem, not ours.

He has no plans to get rid of the dross.

Let's wait and see but I doubt he would publicly say that about them. I reckon most will be off, at least I hope anyway.

 

[Silent Blade]

Here we are again, possibly looking for a new manager, I like most everybody else was delighted to get Adkins, he has obviously faired badly,some no doubt will say it more strongly, so it got me thinking, how much luck is there in choosing the right man, adkins cv was better than we could have hoped for.reading the paper yesterday was an article by Tina Moore,ex of Bobby Moore, apparently in the early 70's he was offered the job by Elton John to take on the managers job of Watford, whilst on holiday he read that somebody called Graham Taylor had been appointed, he went on to be a great success, was this a skillful or lucky appointment because if anybody offered the ex England captain and golden boy the job you would think they would rip your hand off, turned out right though, luck? or a skillfull decision.?

It is a great question and the example of Bobby Moore shows that luck does play a part. Watford were the lucky ones in getting Taylor instead of Moore as practically the entire 1966 World Cup winning team went on to become managers and failed miserably. Naturally the Blades had to play a part in this with Martin Peters (there were rumours that we'd approached George Cohen but he saw more future in becoming an undertaker...)

But what you can do is perform due diligence and background checks. If United had done that with Robson, for example, they'd have put a padlock on the boardroom drinks cabinet. And Adkins? So 'in demand' that they probably didn't notice the 'currently unemployed' on his CV.

I remember my ex-workmate telling me he met an ex-Southend player on a holiday. This ex-Southend player played under Bobby Moore's management and taking about Moore he was saying he had never seen anyone drink so much beer without getting drunk. Looks like Watford were lucky in changing their minds about having Moore as their manager

 

[BLADEOR]

Our Turkish saviour is a giant amongst men according to this!

 

[DiggerBlade]

He's a tall bloke then?

No chance of seeing him in the dugout then. I bet he's sick of banging his head.

 

[Living In a Fantasy World]

Exactly.
While some people are using this failure to claim that the man has suddenly become a crap manager I think it's closer to what you are saying. He's made errors this season but there's been a lot going against him that he can't help. He's been given a dreadful hand and needs to be given time next year to get it right. If he can't get it right, then who on earth can?

He kept the dreadful hand and even added to it, I think he's not helped himself at all this season.

 

[JohnDenver]

I don't think we'll know whether Adkins was the right decision till next season - if he's still here.

And I really hope he is, because if he can't sort it, then it may be that the job is beyond anyone.

I wonder if Adkins has just been too nice. Ranieri and Adkins strike me as similar characters, but where one inherited a squad of good men, the other walked into dressing room full of poison.

So maybe we needed an absolute ogre in charge? Either that or wait til Adkins has his own men in, which will take many months yet...

 

[BeatleBlade]

He kept the dreadful hand and even added to it, I think he's not helped himself at all this season.

He's gotten rid of as much of the dreadful hand as was possible. He's tried adding to it with limited funds.

 

[Barney]

He's tried adding to it with limited funds.

Surely you aren't still peddling this moronic argument.

 

[BeatleBlade]

Surely you aren't still peddling this moronic argument.

I've said all that needs to be said. Ignore the facts again if you must.

 

[Barney]

I've said all that needs to be said. Ignore the facts again if you must.

If you think it's a fact he's had limited funds, then there's really not much more to be said.

 

[BeatleBlade]

If you think it's a fact he's had limited funds, then there's really not much more to be said.

If you're going to be in denial of the facts and keep being dogmatic just as when we went over before, then there's definitely no point. The money he spent was self generated and came from the player who dragged us along last year. To top it all off, he had next to no scouting network in place at the beginning of the season.
But as we've established before, we're not going to agree on this so yes, we should leave it at that.

 

[Barney]

If you're going to be in denial of the facts and keep being dogmatic just as when we went over before, then there's definitely no point. The money he spent was self generated and came from the player who dragged us along last year. To top it all off, he had next to no scouting network in place at the beginning of the season.
But as we've established before, we're not going to agree on this so yes, we should leave it at that.

Money spent i.e total outlay and the players that was on is one of the most important thing in assessing a manager recruitment.

You have been consistently told how this was enough to see progress on 5th position and how it was more of an outlay than almost every single other team in this division.

There's also a reason nobody other than you has used the ridiculous argument about the scouting network as a terrible excuse for the poor signings.

 

[Blade56]

Think this years taken its toll on #nige2. New manager will need more than luck, he will need ability to get the right players, formulate a plan B, connect with the fans and motivate youth and experienced players.

 

[BeatleBlade]

Money spent i.e total outlay and the players that was on is one of the most important thing in assessing a manager recruitment.

You have been consistently told how this was enough to see progress on 5th position and how it was more of an outlay than almost every single other team in this division.

There's also a reason nobody other than you has used the ridiculous argument about the scouting network as a terrible excuse for the poor signings.

A lot of people hold the same opinion. He didn't have enough money to get us out the league.

 

[O'erTheer]

I have a theory about football managers and how they get to be successful / unsuccessful:

Most managers are much of a muchness, ex-pros with a good knowledge of football having been immersed in the game from a young age.

Then at the top, there's a small band of genuinely good managers.

And at the bottom, a small band of genuinely shit managers.

With a fair wind (say a couple of signings come off at the same time as some great youth comes through from the academy...),
any one of the middling managers can have a fantastic season.

But if the wind blows in the opposite direction (terrible injury list, star players poached etc.) the very same manager looks a chump.

A good example of this lottery would be Danny Wilson.

At Barnsley, he makes 4 or 5 signings that all turn out great, result: promotion.

At Wednesday, awful signings and fall outs with top players, result: relegation.

At United, has a great squad and budget for the division, but then loses leading striker in bizarre circumstances...

Also, never forget to take into account levels of expectation around specific clubs and how that affects perception of success / failure.

If a team's spent several years struggling against relegation, then even getting near the playoffs feels great...

However, a big club performing well below it's historical average can be akin to a hornets nest.

So, in my opinion, getting a "good" manager is a question of luck divided by expectation...

 

[blade too long]

I've said all that needs to be said. Ignore the facts again if you must.

what are these facts , I keep hearing you and Pete telling us the board were not prepared to part with 5 magic beans to get players in but thats in complete contrast to what Adkins himself has repeatedly said

I dont believe for a second that if the right players were available we couldnt have got them
What is annoying and even the no funds available arguers never answer is why then were no free transfers brought in either
We offloaded 10 or so out

 

[The Crab]

I have a theory about football managers and how they get to be successful / unsuccessful:

Most managers are much of a muchness, ex-pros with a good knowledge of football having been immersed in the game from a young age.

Then at the top, there's a small band of genuinely good managers.

And at the bottom, a small band of genuinely shit managers.

With a fair wind (say a couple of signings come off at the same time as some great youth comes through from the academy...),
any one of the middling managers can have a fantastic season.

But if the wind blows in the opposite direction (terrible injury list, star players poached etc.) the very same manager looks a chump.

A good example of this lottery would be Danny Wilson.

At Barnsley, he makes 4 or 5 signings that all turn out great, result: promotion.

At Wednesday, awful signings and fall outs with top players, result: relegation.

At United, has a great squad and budget for the division, but then loses leading striker in bizarre circumstances...

Also, never forget to take into account levels of expectation around specific clubs and how that affects perception of success / failure.

If a team's spent several years struggling against relegation, then even getting near the playoffs feels great...

However, a big club performing well below it's historical average can be akin to a hornets nest.

So, in my opinion, getting a "good" manager is a question of luck divided by expectation...

Something in that. Look how we all laughed at Carvalhal (well, I did anyway).

 

[BeatleBlade]

what are these facts , I keep hearing you and Pete telling us the board were not prepared to part with 5 magic beans to get players in but thats in complete contrast to what Adkins himself has repeatedly said

I dont believe for a second that if the right players were available we couldnt have got them
What is annoying and even the no funds available arguers never answer is why then were no free transfers brought in either
We offloaded 10 or so out

As I said to Barney, I've said all I need to. We had this debate the other week. Go through that again if you must. I really can't bothered with it anymore.