ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
I've decided not to present any of my points comparison graphs until we manage to raise ourselves above the horizontal axis (!), but there are other plots and tables that might help to put an objective spin to the emotional place that we are at present.
The transfer window has addressed what we could all see - that we were as porous as a sieve at the back - and we now have enough centre backs for 2 teams! So will that be enough?
Graph 1 plots our actual goals scored and conceded, along with our XG and XGA. This shows that in our 4 games, we have scored 1 and conceded 7, whereas XG shows that we should have scored 5 (5.2) and conceded 5 (5.3). So, our biggest weakness is actually failing to convert the chances we have created - people have suggested that we aren't creating enough chances - which is probably true, but scoring a fifth of our XG suggests strongly that finishing, rather than creating is an even bigger weakness. For comparison, last year, we had a very similar XG of 5.1 after 4 games, but we had scored 6 goals.
Graph 1:
Table 1 is the footballxg.com table from XG stats, rather than actual goals, and shows that we should have expected 5 points from our performances. In this table, we are 15th, rather than 24th, which I think is a fairer reflection of our general performances. If our undoubtedly high quality defensive recruits can get us back to last year's levels at the back, a low XGA and an even lower goals against figure, we can probably get up to around 6th to 10th, but it is putting away at least an average percentage of chances that is needed to get us anywhere near to being playoff contenders.
Table 1:
Looking at our recruitment - we've only really brought in Ings who is a recognised goal-scorer, so hopefully we can keep the old guy fit and firing! We have also brought in pace, and I think we need to exploit this to get round the back of defences, rather than persistently coming back inside. The goal chances that you create driving a ball across and back from the goal line have much higher XG's than chances created by cutting back into congested areas on the edge of the box. So 3 Centre Backs, Wing Backs and 2 up top to do the finishing is the way that I would go, something like Figure 1 below. We now have so many options for formations and team selection though - and so making significant in-game changes, reacting to the opposition, will be a critical test of Rube's proactive instincts.
Figure 1:
Ipswich are 4th in the XTable and 20th in the actual table - they are creating good chances but only scoring about half that they might expect. Hopefully, our solid new defensive line can keep their scoring down and our pace can create some tap-ins up front. Morale has been an issue, conceding the first goal and heads going down - so keeping a clean sheet as long as possible and hopefully scoring that first goal is the way to turn that around. XG would probably say 1-1 at Ipswich, but I think that we can now start to be a solid wall at the back and confidence and results will grow from there.
2-1 Blades - the Future Starts Now.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
The transfer window has addressed what we could all see - that we were as porous as a sieve at the back - and we now have enough centre backs for 2 teams! So will that be enough?
Graph 1 plots our actual goals scored and conceded, along with our XG and XGA. This shows that in our 4 games, we have scored 1 and conceded 7, whereas XG shows that we should have scored 5 (5.2) and conceded 5 (5.3). So, our biggest weakness is actually failing to convert the chances we have created - people have suggested that we aren't creating enough chances - which is probably true, but scoring a fifth of our XG suggests strongly that finishing, rather than creating is an even bigger weakness. For comparison, last year, we had a very similar XG of 5.1 after 4 games, but we had scored 6 goals.
Graph 1:
Table 1 is the footballxg.com table from XG stats, rather than actual goals, and shows that we should have expected 5 points from our performances. In this table, we are 15th, rather than 24th, which I think is a fairer reflection of our general performances. If our undoubtedly high quality defensive recruits can get us back to last year's levels at the back, a low XGA and an even lower goals against figure, we can probably get up to around 6th to 10th, but it is putting away at least an average percentage of chances that is needed to get us anywhere near to being playoff contenders.
Table 1:
Looking at our recruitment - we've only really brought in Ings who is a recognised goal-scorer, so hopefully we can keep the old guy fit and firing! We have also brought in pace, and I think we need to exploit this to get round the back of defences, rather than persistently coming back inside. The goal chances that you create driving a ball across and back from the goal line have much higher XG's than chances created by cutting back into congested areas on the edge of the box. So 3 Centre Backs, Wing Backs and 2 up top to do the finishing is the way that I would go, something like Figure 1 below. We now have so many options for formations and team selection though - and so making significant in-game changes, reacting to the opposition, will be a critical test of Rube's proactive instincts.
Figure 1:
Ipswich are 4th in the XTable and 20th in the actual table - they are creating good chances but only scoring about half that they might expect. Hopefully, our solid new defensive line can keep their scoring down and our pace can create some tap-ins up front. Morale has been an issue, conceding the first goal and heads going down - so keeping a clean sheet as long as possible and hopefully scoring that first goal is the way to turn that around. XG would probably say 1-1 at Ipswich, but I think that we can now start to be a solid wall at the back and confidence and results will grow from there.
2-1 Blades - the Future Starts Now.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
