Over the years, fans’ expectations seem to have changed. Today, many fans demand success. Success is defined as promotion and nothing less. Not just “making the play-offs” or doing well in the cup. Promotion.
When I was younger, maintaining the status quo in the second tier and avoiding relegation was seen as success. Anything more was a bonus.
Today, I hear many fans saying that “Wilder’s in the last chance saloon to deliver success”. Making the playoff final last season was “failure” as we didn’t win. Many say that if we don’t get promotion this coming season we should change the manager.
If you take a step back for a moment, you will see that we will be a club without parachute payments next season, competing with many clubs that are as big or bigger than us, who have historically been more successful. There will be three new clubs dropping down from the PL with parachute payments – Wolves, Burney and West Ham / Spurs. Plus we will be competing against similar-sized clubs - Southampton (if they don't beat Hull), Boro, Derby, Norwich, Birmingham, Stoke, West Brom, Blackburn, Cardiff, as well as other well-performing teams like Millwall and Wrexham.
There are 24 teams in the division. Only two get promoted automatically. Three go down. We have no more right to expect promotion than any other club, and those with parachute payments will start with a big advantage. Many other clubs will be better-funded than us. We are not exceptional by any metric. We were the 6th-best supported club in the division this season. Historically, plenty of Championship clubs have been more successful.
Given our resources, I simply can’t see how finishing in the top two or winning the playoffs can be the minimum expectation of many of our fans. Yet it is.
Under Wilder, I expect next season will be better than this one, which was scuppered to a large extent by the Selles fiasco. I can see us finishing in the play offs, especially in the expanded format. I will be disappointed if we don’t. But unless we get into deep relegation trouble I wouldn’t change the manager.
If we were to sack Wilder and get, say, Challinor in, how long would we give him? Would fans want him sacked if we finished, say, 17th? Who would we bring in then?
On average, new managers in the EFL average 1.35 points per game in their first season, (often inheriting teams that have been performing badly) and many are sacked before they turn things around. It generally takes 2–3 years for a manager to establish a squad of their own and see greater success. And managers who succeed in League One/Two often struggle with the step up to the Championship.
Even if we finished 15th next season I would give Wilder a new contract. He is a proven motivator, knows how to win promotion, and has never suffered a relegation in the EFL. At the very least he will keep us in the Championship, which is fine by me. If we only challenge for promotion to the PL every 2-3 years, that’s fine too.
We have no right to be challenging for promotion. Big clubs drop down to League One every season, but since we came up from League One we have never seriously looked like returning. If we changed the manager we might get automatic promotion to the PL - but the stats say it’s highly unlikely.