Here are the current standings:
Correct me if I'm wrong in any of this, but here's how I see European qualification panning out.
After Sunday I think it's fair to say that it's unlikely Arsenal will win the FA Cup (other remaining semi-finalists are Man Utd, Man City and Liverpool). In that case...
If Man City's ban is upheld, 8th place would qualify for Europe.
If Man City's ban is not upheld, 7th place would qualify for Europe.
Given the current standings, what this means for us is...
If Man City's ban is upheld, we need to match Arsenal for points over the next 7 games - Doable IMHO.
If Man City's ban is not upheld, we'd need to make two points on Spurs over the next 7 games - A big ask. We'd need to win on Thursday for sure.
As it stands:
1st: Champions League qualification
2nd: Champions League qualification
3rd: Champions League qualification
4th: Champions League qualification
5th: Europa League qualification
6th: Europa Conference qualification (because League Cup winners already qualified)
Should Arsenal NOT win the FA Cup:
1st: Champions League qualification
2nd: Champions League qualification
3rd: Champions League qualification
4th: Champions League qualification
5th: Europa League qualification
6th: Europa League qualification (because FA Cup winners already qualified
7th: Europa Conference qualification (because League Cup winners already qualified)
Should Man City's disqualification be upheld:
1st: Champions League qualification
2nd: ---
3rd: Champions League qualification
4th: Champions League qualification
5th: Champions League qualification
6th: Europa League qualification
7th: Europa Conference (because League Cup winners already qualified)
Should Man City's disqualification be upheld, and Arsenal NOT win the FA Cup:
1st: Champions League qualification
2nd: ---
3rd: Champions League qualification
4th: Champions League qualification
5th: Champions League qualification
6th: Europa League qualification
7th: Europa League qualification (because FA Cup winners already qualified)
8th: Europa Conference (because League Cup winners already qualified)
A few assumptions:
1) Catching the top 6 is now out of the question. I think we've blown that chance this year. Man Utd and Wolves will crack on. Leicester will probably drop but not as far as 7th.
2) If we can keep up with Arsenal, Palace and Burnley probably won't catch us.
3) Man City won't with the Champs League this year. Not sure if this would result in an extra place being added or not.
Correct me if I'm wrong in any of this, but here's how I see European qualification panning out.
After Sunday I think it's fair to say that it's unlikely Arsenal will win the FA Cup (other remaining semi-finalists are Man Utd, Man City and Liverpool). In that case...
If Man City's ban is upheld, 8th place would qualify for Europe.
If Man City's ban is not upheld, 7th place would qualify for Europe.
Given the current standings, what this means for us is...
If Man City's ban is upheld, we need to match Arsenal for points over the next 7 games - Doable IMHO.
If Man City's ban is not upheld, we'd need to make two points on Spurs over the next 7 games - A big ask. We'd need to win on Thursday for sure.
As it stands:
1st: Champions League qualification
2nd: Champions League qualification
3rd: Champions League qualification
4th: Champions League qualification
5th: Europa League qualification
6th: Europa Conference qualification (because League Cup winners already qualified)
Should Arsenal NOT win the FA Cup:
1st: Champions League qualification
2nd: Champions League qualification
3rd: Champions League qualification
4th: Champions League qualification
5th: Europa League qualification
6th: Europa League qualification (because FA Cup winners already qualified
7th: Europa Conference qualification (because League Cup winners already qualified)
Should Man City's disqualification be upheld:
1st: Champions League qualification
2nd: ---
3rd: Champions League qualification
4th: Champions League qualification
5th: Champions League qualification
6th: Europa League qualification
7th: Europa Conference (because League Cup winners already qualified)
Should Man City's disqualification be upheld, and Arsenal NOT win the FA Cup:
1st: Champions League qualification
2nd: ---
3rd: Champions League qualification
4th: Champions League qualification
5th: Champions League qualification
6th: Europa League qualification
7th: Europa League qualification (because FA Cup winners already qualified)
8th: Europa Conference (because League Cup winners already qualified)
A few assumptions:
1) Catching the top 6 is now out of the question. I think we've blown that chance this year. Man Utd and Wolves will crack on. Leicester will probably drop but not as far as 7th.
2) If we can keep up with Arsenal, Palace and Burnley probably won't catch us.
3) Man City won't with the Champs League this year. Not sure if this would result in an extra place being added or not.