Bookies odds

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Berlin Blade

Berlin Blade

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It seems our optimism is not totally misplaced for next season. I've just tried to get a few quid on United to go up at ridiculous odds, I was expecting anything from 20/1 upwards. Skybet have got us at 5/1 for promotion. They're not stupid, and obviously are aware we may well cause an upset next year, but I'm a bit shocked at those odds to be honest. By that reckoning, we're as likely to go up next year as Giroud is to score a header against bottom of the league at The Emirates.

Also, makes a bit of a mockery of all the pig filth saying we're gonna go straight back down and this league's too much for us. They'll probably be at about 3/1 for promotion if they bottle the play offs again this year. Shows what all those millions really count for when it comes down to it.

Anyone else surprised by 5/1 or is it just me?
 



Bookies odds have no bearing on the likelihood of a Blades promotion. The fans are buzzing after this season and we are a relatively big club in terms of attendances etc so potentially lots of people will back us for promotion (or have done already) the bookies lower the odds to cover themselves.
 
Probably don't give out rediculous odds anymore anyway because of the Leicester incident last season. Different circumstances of course.
 
There's common misconception about how bookies' odds are calculated. It's determined by betting activity. It would only take a few excited Blades to place a bet on promotion next year and the odds would shorten considerably.

The 5/1 isn't based on the bookmaker's opinion. It's all to do with betting patterns.

Anyone thinking about promotion shouldn't rule it out but should also temper their enthusiasm. Next year is first and foremost about consolidation. I'm not even contemplating a promotion push.
 
The Sky odds compilers set the initial odds. Thereafter betting activity may lead to changes. For me 5/1 for promotion is too short.
 
Perhaps more to do with happy Blades fans all still a bit giddy chucking bets on. More people that bet, the lower the odds go.
We may well drift out when the season gets going.
 
Sharrow Snuff Mill said:
The Sky odds compilers set the initial odds. Thereafter betting activity may lead to changes. For me 5/1 for promotion is too short.
Click to expand...

That's right. There has to be a book in the first place so that betting activity can then take place.

We're going to do just fine. The quality of our Tuftyball is going to surprise a few who, for obvious reasons, will still associate us with long ball shite.
 
Well for what it's worth, reading are 5-1 for promotion ahead of today's fixture and they are already in the play offs.
 
If every team was exactly the same, every team would be 7/1, or a bit shorter after the bookies insert their edge. So what the market is saying is we're a right average Championship side, maybe slightly better.
 
Also need to factor in that there won't be any money on the losing play-off teams and Hull/Swansea yet. Plus promotion favourites Sunderland and Boro won't have many backers yet.

As others have said it's giddy Blades getting in before the market has even got going. Have the majority of bookmakers even got a book on next season yet?
 
Well, if you want a decent bet wait till after the first three or four games, we haven't started well for a few years now and if we don't next season then the odds on reaching the play offs would be good, I genuinely feel we could gatecrash the playoffs, it's a long shot, but it's not impossible...

Please, I'm only hoping to stop up.... so don't hammer me..
 
YES Blade said:
Also need to factor in that there won't be any money on the losing play-off teams and Hull/Swansea yet. Plus promotion favourites Sunderland and Boro won't have many backers yet.

As others have said it's giddy Blades getting in before the market has even got going. Have the majority of bookmakers even got a book on next season yet?
Click to expand...
I don`t know how giddy Blades fans can get into the market before it has even got going. So far, just Skybet have quoted prices, and there has been no change to the odds compilers initial quotes. Better odds may be available once other bookies produce their odds. It will be interesting to see the handicap quotes later in the Summer. There may be some good value there.
 
YES Blade said:
Also need to factor in that there won't be any money on the losing play-off teams and Hull/Swansea yet. Plus promotion favourites Sunderland and Boro won't have many backers yet.

As others have said it's giddy Blades getting in before the market has even got going. Have the majority of bookmakers even got a book on next season yet?
Click to expand...

The market will already account for your first paragraph, and it's just Skybet that have a market right now, at least according to oddschecker
 
Patrick Suffaux said:
There's common misconception about how bookies' odds are calculated. It's determined by betting activity. It would only take a few excited Blades to place a bet on promotion next year and the odds would shorten considerably.

The 5/1 isn't based on the bookmaker's opinion. It's all to do with betting patterns.

Anyone thinking about promotion shouldn't rule it out but should also temper their enthusiasm. Next year is first and foremost about consolidation. I'm not even contemplating a promotion push.
Click to expand...
Thanks. I won't rule out consolidation but that word isn't in Wilders vocabulary.

I'm expecting a promotion push because this is the best football I've ever seen a United team play with the best manager.

I can't temper my enthusiasm - I've tried, but I just can't!
 



jt64 said:
The market will already account for your first paragraph, and it's just Skybet that have a market right now, at least according to oddschecker
Click to expand...

My point is no one will be betting on any of those teams when they might not even be in the Championship next season. When they are confirmed in the Championship, people will bet on them and our odds will more than likely lengthen.
 
The 20/1 price probably went after Strappy put a few grand on so he can buy his next house or holiday home.


Whichever of you is his bitch on here don't forget to tell him about this because he doesn't read forums and I'm desperate for another name check from the JP McManus of Twitter :)
 
It's a bit mean is 5/1 ,but that price is really a place only bet ie be in first 3 albeit via play offs mebbe.
To win the Championship is gonna be about 12/1 I would think ?
But anyway we pissed league one with Chris' team of lge one/underperforming players,who's to say playing the Wilder way with a few more suitable players,we won't do the same.
I mean,who on here is frightened of playing Sunderland, Middlesbrough et al I'm certainly not ,so let's be a confident lot for once and all lump on at 5/1we should be 4/6 !!!! UTB !
:)
 
Gimli said:
Bookies odds have no bearing on the likelihood of a Blades promotion. The fans are buzzing after this season and we are a relatively big club in terms of attendances etc so potentially lots of people will back us for promotion (or have done already) the bookies lower the odds to cover themselves.
Click to expand...
"A relatively big club"... really? We ARE a big club. In fact, we're bigger than a 'big club' for fucks sake.
 
Tezza1889 said:
Well, if you want a decent bet wait till after the first three or four games, we haven't started well for a few years now and if we don't next season then the odds on reaching the play offs would be good, I genuinely feel we could gatecrash the playoffs, it's a long shot, but it's not impossible...

Please, I'm only hoping to stop up.... so don't hammer me..
Click to expand...
No because the league has not taken shape yet.
 
If you phone any bookie, I'm guessing they'll give you odds. But if sky have already put us at 5/1 it's only going to be around the same.
 
As with us this season and Northampton last, I think CW and AK would mainly focus on our next game and see where it takes us. As Blades fans we can all dream of the play-offs and even automatics, but realistically these should not be our expectations or minimum goals.
 
Bart the Blade said:
Probably don't give out rediculous odds anymore anyway because of the Leicester incident last season. Different circumstances of course.
Click to expand...

They probably made a killing on Leicester winning the league. Because they always make a killing. Think of how much money will have gone on the favourites at the start of that season.
 



Gimli said:
Bookies odds have no bearing on the likelihood of a Blades promotion. The fans are buzzing after this season and we are a relatively big club in terms of attendances etc so potentially lots of people will back us for promotion (or have done already) the bookies lower the odds to cover themselves.
Click to expand...

That's not quite correct, they will factor in how much money is being put on promotion by our fans but they will also factor in the chances of promotion on a purely football basis also.
 
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