The Bohemian
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With a quarter of the season passed, I checked out the, last 5 years’, stats for the relevance of a top six position, after 10 games, on a Championship finishing position.
Unsurprisingly, at least half of the Play-off berths can be regarded as booked by early October, with at least three of the top six teams (on two occasions, four) after ten games, finding the consistency to see the job through to the following May.
By contrast, this does of course mean that 2 or 3 teams will falter and the ultimate fate of some makes sobering reading for roughly half of those already dreaming of springtime glory. In fact, most of the teams who drop out of the 10 game, top six do so convincingly. Indeed, of the 13 teams to have done so, in the past 5 years, only 3 managed a single digit finishing position. Most of the rest finished in mid-table obscurity, whilst Huddersfield (2013) and Blackpool (2014) flirted with relegation. Most astoundingly, Wolves’s class of 2013 managed to turn 3rd place after ten games into a 2nd bottom, relegation nightmare. Costing Messrs Solbakken and Saunders their job in the process.
The message here is, therefore, one of caution: one swallow certainly does not make a summer, (but a shed load of quiet Owls keeps the winter blues at bay).
Conversely, it is highly unusual to turn a lethargic start around sufficiently to secure an end of season Play-off position. Most teams who get over the line after 46 games do so from mid table or above at the 10 game marker. Most impressively, in the last half decade, was Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth who ascended, sharply from 15th to 1st in 2015. This probably means disappointment for, pre-season fancies, Derby and Hull.
Ten games into this season, the Championship top six was thus:
Based on our stats, the teams most likely to replace 3 from the above list are those placed 7th -15th, after ten games:
7. Bristol City
8. Fulham
9. Villa
10. Boro
11. Norwich
12. Millwall
13. Wednesday
14. QPR
15. Derby
So, which 3 of the top six will still be there at the end and which of the 7 – 15 list will replace them? Critically, can The Blades stay the distance?
Unsurprisingly, at least half of the Play-off berths can be regarded as booked by early October, with at least three of the top six teams (on two occasions, four) after ten games, finding the consistency to see the job through to the following May.
By contrast, this does of course mean that 2 or 3 teams will falter and the ultimate fate of some makes sobering reading for roughly half of those already dreaming of springtime glory. In fact, most of the teams who drop out of the 10 game, top six do so convincingly. Indeed, of the 13 teams to have done so, in the past 5 years, only 3 managed a single digit finishing position. Most of the rest finished in mid-table obscurity, whilst Huddersfield (2013) and Blackpool (2014) flirted with relegation. Most astoundingly, Wolves’s class of 2013 managed to turn 3rd place after ten games into a 2nd bottom, relegation nightmare. Costing Messrs Solbakken and Saunders their job in the process.
The message here is, therefore, one of caution: one swallow certainly does not make a summer, (but a shed load of quiet Owls keeps the winter blues at bay).
Conversely, it is highly unusual to turn a lethargic start around sufficiently to secure an end of season Play-off position. Most teams who get over the line after 46 games do so from mid table or above at the 10 game marker. Most impressively, in the last half decade, was Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth who ascended, sharply from 15th to 1st in 2015. This probably means disappointment for, pre-season fancies, Derby and Hull.
Ten games into this season, the Championship top six was thus:
- Cardiff
- Blades
- Leeds
- Wolves
- Preston
- Ipswich
Based on our stats, the teams most likely to replace 3 from the above list are those placed 7th -15th, after ten games:
7. Bristol City
8. Fulham
9. Villa
10. Boro
11. Norwich
12. Millwall
13. Wednesday
14. QPR
15. Derby
So, which 3 of the top six will still be there at the end and which of the 7 – 15 list will replace them? Critically, can The Blades stay the distance?
