a year ago in the prem

[blade too long]

The table after 22 games was


Not much changed position wise to the final day . Newcastle climbed clear but Brighton stayed safe with 36 points

3 of the bottom 4 after 22 went down
Think we arent far off safety where we are

 

[1973Blade]

More importantly for us today, what was the top six looking like ?

 

[Brother-Leech]

Where were Brighton? Don’t say 6th please.

 

[BLADES1988]

The table after 22 games was
View attachment 68669

Not much changed position wise to the final day . Newcastle climbed clear but Brighton stayed safe with 36 points
View attachment 68670
Think we arent far off safety where we are

Would be easier to understand if you can see the points on the top picture

 

[blade too long]

Would be easier to understand if you can see the points on the top picture

 

[blade too long]

Where were Brighton? Don’t say 6th please.

13th with 26 points

 

[blade too long]

At this stage man Utd were 6th so they didn't move much

 

[McGrath]

Bottom 3 this season are on more points at the same point. The league is a lot closer than normal.

No one should count their chickens just yet. We need to keep grinding them results out.

 

[Blade56]

Crude maths but 18th this season is about 17% higher. If the average safety net is 38 points then this season we need 44/45 points.

 

[Bartleby]

Crude maths but 18th this season is about 17% higher. If the average safety net is 38 points then this season we need 44/45 points.

Does that work maths wise to just increase it all by 17% like that? Still a finite maximum number of points up for grabs surely? Unless inflation is playing a part this year

 

[Snake]

Some club is going to go down on 39 or 40 points this season. It won't be us though

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Why the hell are we looking at the bottom feeders? I want to know where Chelsea were at this point.

 

[Blade56]

Does that work maths wise to just increase it all by 17% like that? Still a finite maximum number of points up for grabs surely? Unless inflation is playing a part this year

Note the words “Crude maths?

 

[blade too long]

Bottom 3 this season are on more points at the same point. The league is a lot closer than normal.

No one should count their chickens just yet. We need to keep grinding them results out.

Yes 2 more points
We are 11 points above 18th
10 above 17th who went down last year
We are much higher than anyone who was further away last year.
Those more than double figures above 17th. Not one finished below 12th

 

[Bartleby]

Note the words “Crude maths?

Yes, might serve as a rough guide though. Probably more points required to stay up this year but a lot of the teams below us have to play each other so will take points off each other. 34 is the record for lowest number of points for survival so far in the PL.

 

[Roygbiv]

It will be more points than last season but I can't see it being 44 or 45. For instance Villa only have 6 wins in 22. Even with 6 wins in next 16 they will still only be on 39. If they do get those wins then they are likely to come at the expense of the other sides around then who themselves need to improve on the first halves of their season to get to the 40 mark.

Even Brighton up in 14th are only managing just over a point a game.

 

[Blade56]

Yes, might serve as a rough guide though. Probably more points required to stay up this year but a lot of the teams below us have to play each other so will take points off each other. 34 is the record for lowest number of points for survival so far in the PL.

It will be more points than last season but I can't see it being 44 or 45. For instance Villa only have 6 wins in 22. Even with 6 wins in next 16 they will still only be on 39. If they do get those wins then they are likely to come at the expense of the other sides around then who themselves need to improve on the first halves of their season to get to the 40 mark.

Even Brighton up in 14th are only managing just over a point a game.

I’m writing off January. I said after the Xmas period if we get 3-4 points from this month it’s all we could expect. Feb to mid a March we need around 2 per game then we are safe without a bum clenching run in.

Can see Villa, Southampton and Newcastle improving and moving comfortably to mid table.

 

[Bearlie]

From 1st feb we have a five game sequence against teams who are definitely in a relegation dog fight .Realistically we need 7 points fro them ...

 

[CoatesyBlade]

I’m writing off January. I said after the Xmas period if we get 3-4 points from this month it’s all we could expect. Feb to mid a March we need around 2 per game then we are safe without a bum clenching run in.

Can see Villa, Southampton and Newcastle improving and moving comfortably to mid table.

Villa?? Really? I can't they are garbage!
Newcastle... Couldn't get much worse!
Agree with Southampton... Got some very good players and they are playing well now after a rocky start to the season

 

[metalblade]

I think the baseline to survival is a point per game any team averaging less than that so far have reason to be very worried. Average for us is 1.45 points per game we would need to have a horrendous run to drop us anywhere near the bottom three that and the fact that 12 teams would have to do better than us (they can't all keep winning) I just can't see that happening to be honest. From the bottom up there are 5 teams who should be very worried and then 5 teams who will be concerned, I don't think any team in the top half of the table have much to worry about.

 

[blade too long]

Crude maths but 18th this season is about 17% higher. If the average safety net is 38 points then this season we need 44/45 points.

nah doesnt work like

Crude maths but 18th this season is about 17% higher. If the average safety net is 38 points then this season we need 44/45 points.

3		Newcastle	22	-13	26
14		Brighton	22	-5	24
15		Burnley	22	-13	24
16		West Ham	21	-8	22
17		Watford	22	-14	22
18		Aston Villa	22	-15	21
19		Bournemouth	22	-15	20
20		Norwich	22	-23	14

crude maths says 16th are averaging a point a game so 38 points maximum
never needed 45 to stay up over 38 games
so we need 7 points to be secure from 48 available
if we only get a point a game average now we will finish on 48 points still above your ludicrous 45 point requirement
plus the chances of west ham villa and watford all getting great run ins is slim

 

[Blade56]

your ludicrous 45 point

FFS keep yer feckin hair on, what don’t you understand from the opening 2 words”CRUDE MATHS”

also never said Watford even though they are the form team at the moment.

Can see Villa, Southampton and Newcastle improving and moving comfortably to mid table.

 

[Balham]

Crude maths but 18th this season is about 17% higher. If the average safety net is 38 points then this season we need 44/45 points.

I like where you're coming from but you'd need to apply the crude 17% to the 34 points Cardiff ended up on rather than the 38 average. 34*1.17=40.

Only three sides have ever been relegated with 40 or more points: Bolton, Sunderland and West Ham with the Happy Hammers being the last in 2003.

 

[Blade56]

I like where you're coming from but you'd need to apply the crude 17% to the 34 points Cardiff ended up on rather than the 38 average. 34*1.17=40.

Only three sides have ever been relegated with 40 or more points: Bolton, Sunderland and West Ham with the Happy Hammers being the last in 2003.

Playing safe BB

 

[The Vicar]

I think 42 will keep us up with a gap of 2-4 points [+ goal difference], 45 keeps us up comfortably.
Games against villa, palace, brighton, norwich, bournemouth, newcastle & burnley should be our best chance of 3-4 wins & a couple of draws.

Plus a copule of draws elsewhere.

 

[cahill]

Villa?? Really? I can't they are garbage!
Newcastle... Couldn't get much worse!
Agree with Southampton... Got some very good players and they are playing well now after a rocky start to the season

Villa look terrible.

 

[Harry's Game]

18th Burnley. 38pts

19th Bournemouth 34pts

20th Norwich 29pts

that’s my prediction, I can’t see either of those sides getting more than another 15 or 14 points

 

[blade too long]

doubt if it will get near 36 points again for 18th
the points spread means if the top 2 or 3 get 100 down to 88 points there's far fewer points for the bottom clubs

on the 3 occasions that 18th hit 40 points the title and 2nd got under 86 points down to 80 with 3rd in the seventies so the spread of points added a few at the bottom
if as expected Liverpool get over 100 and man city 90 that's as many as 25 points less divided among the strugglers

the last 2 seasons of top 2 dominance has cut relegation places totals to mid-thirties

 

[Blend-it-like-Harris]

Still there's forum discussions about relegation - it's sad to imagine how many of our fans can't just sit back and enjoy this amazing ride.

 

[Geezer]

Still there's forum discussions about relegation - it's sad to imagine how many of our fans can't just sit back and enjoy this amazing ride.

Is this not a discussion board?...Where topics and opinions relating to the RAWW and football in general are discussed? Im happy the OP and other opinionists are helping to pass the boredom of work between matchdays! It wouldnt be half as fun if everyone shared the same opinion... there wouldnt be a need to have discussion at all as we would all know what each other was thinking.