A few observations from the stats (Tractor Boys)

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Coolblade

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A few observations from the stats:

The score says 3–1, the underlying xG battle was lost 1.63 to their 1.98, but the football we saw was a typical old school blades performance. Because while Ipswich had more possession, almost 58%, we had the moments. We took 15 shots to their 11, landed eight on target to their five, and found 18 touches in their box, enough to make Walton’s afternoon uncomfortable even before the goals arrived.

Team set‑up:

We had a variation on the kind of shape that made Wilder’s first spell work: compact without the ball, brave with it, and horrible to play against.

Out of possession, we dropped quickly into a tidy 4‑4‑2, O’Hare stepping up alongside Bamford, Seriki and Brooks flattening the wide line, and Peck and Davies shutting the inside channels. That structure forced Ipswich into the areas we wanted and then punished them there. The data shows exactly why that mattered, we won 24 aerial duels to their 14 and hacked away 23 clearances to their 17. Everything they tried to drop into the box, Mee or McGuinness win

With the ball, we almost morphed at times into a 2‑3‑5, full-backs high, wingers stretching, Hamer and O’Hare popping up in pockets. It wasn’t possession for possession’s sake, it was territory with threat, creating the runs, the openings, and ultimately the goals.

First half: Even before the opener, we had three shots on target to their one, better looks inside the box, and cleaner dribbles into dangerous zones. Although Cooper’s early saves were vital. O’Hare’s finish was calm, clinical, from a player who had already taken three shots, all on target, and was dictating the half between the lines.

And then we hit them again. Seriki’s relentless running supporting.the break Brooks arriving exactly where you want him to be and driving in the rebound. The numbers tell you why he looked unplayable: three shots, two dribbles, a key pass, 40 touches, and the highest rating on the pitch. The right side looking dangerous again.

At half‑time, although Ipswich had more passes and more possession, we had the better game-state: eight shots to their six, three on target to their one, and more presence where it counted.

Second half: Ipswich got their lifeline penalty and rattled the post soon after. But after it went 2–1, we out‑shot them seven to five, and hit the target more often, five times to their four.

And then Hamer again found the angle, threading another perfect ball through their defensive line, and Bamford timed the run when it mattered. His finish low, sharp, decisive, reflected the performance: three shots, two on target, roughly 0.67 xG, more than any player on the pitch. It was everything done well. The red card is annoying and frustrating, but the game was gone by then.

Defensive discipline:

Mee won six aerial duels, made five clearances, and didn’t concede a single foul. McGuinness matched the dominance with four clearances, three aerial wins, and an unbelievable 96.6% pass completion, rare for a centre-half in a Championship battle.

McCallum added the aggression down the left, 57 touches, three tackles, five aerial wins, while Seriki and Brooks kept forcing Ipswich backwards on the opposite flank.

Cooper behind them did exactly what was required: four saves, no fuss, no errors, just authority.

We’ve seen us fray under pressure this season but this time the block held.

Midfield mechanics:

Peck handled the press ok, completing 48 passes but at only 70% pass accuracy, whilst picking off three tackles and an interception, and linking transitions to the right side. Davies beside him kept it clean, 27 passes at 96% rarely flashy, but was functional.

Hamer was the conductor, finishing with two assists, three key passes, and a passing accuracy north of 73% (high for a player in that role). And O’Hare: three shots on target, two key passes, never still, always finding space that shouldn’t exist.

The right side: Brooks & Seriki, the biggest difference from Southampton and Charlton and the version of us that makes sense. Seriki was constant motion, engaging defenders, wriggling into half-spaces, supplying crosses and cutbacks, finishing with three key passes (joint most with Hamer), two dribbles, three tackles. Brooks fed off it and gave it back in kind, aggression, creativity, pressure, output. Together they stretched Ipswich into uncomfortable shapes all afternoon.

Final thoughts

A disciplined block without the ball, a confident structure with it, and real purpose in the final third. For once the numbers and the eyes said the same thing: we earned this.

This was BDTBL as it should be, loud, edgy, combative, and decisive in the big moments. It wasn’t perfect. We conceded too much xG, Bamford lost his head, and Ipswich had strong spells. But the performance was full of identity, full of our type of football. The fight was there, the shape was there, the goals were there. Perhaps most importantly the right players were on the pitch.

A real shame the recent selections and rash moments have cost us valuable points or the play offs could have been a real possibility. Are they still?

And another Sheffield double!

UTB!
 



Thanks Cool, a great read. Not that I’m giving you homework but I do wonder if regularly rotating/resting 4+ players does result in a positive long term benefit in terms of points obtained?

And surely now we are out of the cup, with some level of enforced rotation inevitable (with injuries and suspensions) now is the time to just play our best available team? If we don’t go on a bit of a winning run right now, we may as well just start planning for next season?
 
Thanks Cool, a great read. Not that I’m giving you homework but I do wonder if regularly rotating/resting 4+ players does result in a positive long term benefit in terms of points obtained?

And surely now we are out of the cup, with some level of enforced rotation inevitable (with injuries and suspensions) now is the time to just play our best available team? If we don’t go on a bit of a winning run right now, we may as well just start planning for next season?
Like you say, I think the changes have been enforced due to fitness, knocks and injuries.
We’d have beaten Southampton without a weakened squad to select from.
 
Thanks Cool, a great read. Not that I’m giving you homework but I do wonder if regularly rotating/resting 4+ players does result in a positive long term benefit in terms of points obtained?
There’s actually lots of studies available already, so not much homework needed! Although the bottom line from multiple studies is that whilst there is evidence that rotating a squad results in higher points per game in the latter stages of the season, it is normally balanced out by lost points earlier in the season, as a result of lowering performance by not playing your strongest side consistently. So no overall points benefit over a season is achieved.

Most studies do however conclude that a stable spine, rotating 2–4 high-load players per match, capping elite players at roughly 3,000 minutes a season, prioritising rest during congested weeks and less important matches, and targeting high-speed positions, produces the best balance between injury reduction and performance stability. Less than 2 changes allows fatigue to accumulate but more than 4 changes then chemistry drops, defensive errors rise

This approach minimises late-season collapse without significantly harming short-term results. So keep the spine stable (if possible): GK – CB – CM – CF and rotate the peripherals; full backs wingers and box to box midfielders. [which perhaps Wilder is following?]

Also, when matches are less than 72 hours apart evidence shows sprint output drops, muscle injury risk rises and neuromuscular fatigue persists so the optimal strategy is to rotate before fatigue shows in performance data. So rest players after 2 consecutive full matches, and prioritise rotation in domestic cups, and weaker league opponents.
 
A few observations from the stats:

What he said ...

Great analysis and breakdown.

We looked a lot more capable with Davies and Peck in midfield. Davies has the footballing maturity to pick it up and drive forward where Arblaster is about two years from gaining that confidence to dominate. Davies was, to his detriment, somewhat wasteful in distribution.

O'Hare, as you say, is never still. The example of that is in the second half when that Ipswich player gained possession, went to look up and decide whether to pass or press on and suddenly O'Hare is in his pocket and off with his wallet. He just keeps going and his only mission is to win, win the challenges, win the ball, win the game. It's great to watch. Do think their keeper left his boot high on him and totally understand the kick-off about it.

It's a conundrum playing both O'Hare and Hamer together in the same team, because both are positionally similar. Playing the 4-4-2, there is no room for a true attacking midfielder like both of these and it was understandable yesterday to put O'Hare alongside Bamford for either to drag defenders out of position and create openings, leaving Gus to do his duty on the wing, though really, he's not a winger like Brooks is.

Seriki and Brooks are our key turners in most matches. Watching those two pair up and play through each other is delightful as is seeing Seriki light the afterburner and coast past defences. The missing element is the forwards dropping into space in the box to receive the killer pass and score.

I do think our only fragility is the centre backs. No purchases or loans of mention so far? We need people of real steadiness in those positions. Mee is way past it and Binden/McGuiness are more full of mistakes than Robinson was.
 
"Davies was, to his detriment, somewhat wasteful in his distribution"

How is that possible with a 96% pass rate? Just shows how differently some people view the game
 
Depends which 'stats' you look at. I saw him pass three times to a blue shirt and lose possession more than once.
If it helps, the reported stats show Davies was dispossessed twice, and had an unsuccessful cross (which could be deemed a misplaced pass).
 
Davies appeared to play a deeper Norwood type role - at least on the occasions I noticed so may not have been the whole time he was playing. Seemed quite effective in that role, although I think his strength is in a more forward role. Does his heatmap back that up?
 
Coolblade these are excellent reads mate.

If our scouting team had put half the efficiency into analysis as you have we’d perhaps not have had such a woeful recruitment strategy.
 
I haven't seen it stated anywhere but big props to Davies on the second goal for picking up the loose ball from the initial shot and turning it over to Seriki. Showed speed of thought there.

Re Ben Mee, you see an example of what stats do not show. There's nothing showing him dropping us in it by early in the first half. Luckily Cooper bailed us out.
 
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Very informative write up MrCool, and much appreciated.

I don't understand though how we lost the xG battle?

the underlying xG battle was lost 1.63 to their 1.98

Be intresting to see the latest column of the last matches on here too.


Cheers UTB.
 
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