A few observations from the stats (Oxford)

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Coolblade

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A few observations from the stats (from the kop):

Sometimes you have to dig in and hope class shows. This was a win where we started as badly as I could envisage, but improved generally over time such that we looked better than Oxford for long enough that our quality eventually told.

We gave them their opener with a loose moment from Cooper. But beyond that early setback, the match always felt like it was tilting our way. The numbers back it up: 70% possession, 558 passes to their 241, and 31 touches in their box compared to their six. And even though Oxford’s xG (1.06) just shaded ours (1.00), the flow of the game, and the quality of our big moments demonstrated that we set the tone of the match. Oxford’s xG advantage was a mirage. Their only big chance was the rebound goal. Everything else was half-scraps.

Team Set‑Up: Out of possession, our 4‑2‑3‑1 stepped aggressively into a 4‑2‑4 press at times, with Brooks and Seriki jumping high on their back line. In possession, with Burrows providing width on the left and Seriki doing the same on the right, while O’Hare and Brooks drifted into the half‑spaces. Very frustratingly it took its time to work, but it forced Oxford deeper and deeper as the match went on. The final-third numbers show it clearly, with 108 successful final-third passes for us and just 36 for Oxford.

First Half: It was a poor goal to concede (after Cooper had started to look more like his old self in recent games) but from that moment, even though we took our time, the match swung to us. However it did so without us creating real chances. We suffocated them, moved them around, found pockets. But where was the xG? All the stats point the same way, 70% possession, nearly triple the passes, far better territory, 4 attempts but all were from outside the box

Second Half: Oxford threatened only once, in the first minute after the restart, but Seriki produced a superb recovery to clear danger. After that moment, Oxford were rarely seen as an attacking force. The match became all about whether our pressure would eventually convert into chances big enough to score. Thankfully they did. By the end, the key stats told a story Oxford couldn’t escape: 31 touches in the Oxford box to their six, 11 shots to their six, 10 corners to their two, 82.4% pass accuracy to their 61%, and 558 successful passes. We took our time but eventually we controlled the match.

Defensive: Despite conceding early, our defenders had strong games. Bindon, in particular, was excellent with 105 touches, 87 passes at 95.4% accuracy, 3 aerial wins, 7 clearances and 1 key pass. He looked every inch a top Championship centre‑half. Tanganga, our captain, had a poor start, but grew into the game and won 4 aerial duels, made 2 clearances, and passed at 87.5%. Burrows deserves a mention (especially as he is likely to be back as first choice.). He was always involved with 51 passes, 10 crosses, 2 aerial wins, and 72 touches.

Midfield: Peck and Arblaster were a bit hit and miss but were much improved. Peck with 75 touches, 59 passes at 84.8%, 2 shots, 1 on target, 4 turnovers forced and 7 recoveries. Arblaster created the equaliser with the smartest pass of the night and completed 48 passes at 85.4%. Very different from the low accuracy stats last match against Millwall.

Creativity: Hamer was again a key player with 38 passes at 76.3%, 2 key passes, 2 dribbles, superb assist. On the right, Seriki & Brooks were not at their best but still made a big difference. Seriki continues to grow: with 52 passes, 82.7% accuracy, 2 aerial wins, 4 tackles & 1 key pass. Brooks numbers were strong once again. 2 shots, 1 on target, 1 goal, 2 key passes, 1 dribbles, 40 touches, 7.80 rating. This flank is becoming our key weapon.

Attack: Cannon has become a good runner. He presses, he stretches the pitch, he drags centre‑backs into uncomfortable spaces, and he helps us play at a tempo that defenders hate. For example in the Brooks goal, Cannon gets the assist. But in the moments that need someone to hold the ball, lean on a defender, set the play… that’s not Cannon. As the game wore on, Oxford dropped deeper, space reduced, and Cannon faded. His passing dropped, his touches dropped, and the team started to lose the “bounce point” you need against a deep block.

Cannon is a good support striker but not the central reference point. He thrives more when the game is stretched, he’s running diagonally, he’s chasing flick-ons from a proper 9 and he’s arriving onto chances, not creating them Give him a Bamford to play off and he looks dangerous. Ask him to be Bamford and he looks isolated. He’s a weapon but he needs the right platform to explode.

Cannon and O’Hare together are strong at energy and movement. They both run and both press. They both drift into good pockets and both keep defenders honest. But neither of them pins defenders, holds the ball, dictates tempo, wins consistent back‑to‑goal duels, gives you that “play off me” wall pass. We need Bamford back for Boro!

Final Thoughts: This wasn’t a perfect performance, the early mistake showed that we still have soft moments, but tactically it was structured, dominant and controlled Over 90 minutes, we were simply too much for Oxford.

We controlled the ball, controlled the spaces, controlled the tempo, and eventually controlled the scoreline. We created more, imposed ourselves more, and showed more confidence all over the pitch. Oxford couldn’t live with our width, couldn’t handle our rotations, and couldn’t get out of their half once we settled. Although our unbalanced front pairing remains a concern.

A win that perhaps makes you look at the table and fixture list a little differently. Perhaps with a glimmer of hope?

UTB
 
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Thanks as ever Coolblade. Out of interest, where do you get your stats from? Opta had the xG at 1.18-0.97 which feels more realistic, particularly with nearly 0.90 of the Oxford number coming from the two Peart-Harris chances. On a filthy night up against a very low block I thought we did what we needed to but equally, we were static and took the safe option far too much in the first half.

Top chances:
C Ogbene (84 mins, goal): 0.674
M Peart-Harris (13 mins, goal): 0.663
M Peart-Harris (46 mins, miss): 0.214
T Bindon (36 mins, miss): 0.114
A Brooks (66 mins, goal): 0.100
[8th] S Peck (41 mins, goal): 0.057

Edit: according to Opta, Brooks' three in three have come from a combined 0.256 xG. Pinpoint.
 
Edit: according to Opta, Brooks' three in three have come from a combined 0.256 xG. Pinpoint.
Thanks - and there is often a (modest) range with xG numbers, as different suppliers have varying data sets.

But here the situation is a little odd as I used the BBC xG figure which they have previously said they obtain from Opta!

As I explain, I thought the figure didn’t reflect what I saw. So let’s go with your figures!!
 
Thanks - and there is often a (modest) range with xG numbers, as different suppliers have varying data sets.

But here the situation is a little odd as I used the BBC xG figure which they have previously said they obtain from Opta!

As I explain, I thought the figure didn’t reflect what I saw. So let’s go with your figures!!
I've no idea how quickly Opta turns it around on their website but it's a goldmine when it's uploaded: https://theanalyst.com/football/team/scm-49/sheffield-united
 
Although I agree we probably should have made more of the possession and territory that we had, I think that’s more to do with the opposition than it was our (lack of?) creativity.

Oxford had effectively parked every player in their half after 15 minutes and restricted us to very little. All 3 of our goals came from a combination of a brilliant little bit of football by us and mistakes by them.

The first, their left back went walkabout after Oxford failed to properly clear it. Still an excellent ball from Blaster and Burrows and a tough shot for Peck.

The second, their centre half decided to perform his own personal pitch inspection allowing Cannon in. Still a fabulous find from Cannon and even better finish from an injured and off balance Brooks.

The third, they looked to break on us committing players forward and getting out of their shape - Soumare pinches the ball and Hamer finds THE pass. Excellent touch and finish from Ogbene.

On another day they frustrate us for 90 minutes and we lose 1-0. I think United deserve some credit for coming out of that with the 3 points - I think it was our first win coming from behind this season? That being said, I thought Oxford came with a plan and weren’t a million miles away from executing it well. The only real mistakes they made were punished to the fullest extent. Clinical.
 
One or two observations.
First half Burrows was really isolated with no outlet ball for him to play.
It contributed to our slow sideways and backwards play. Neither Cannon nor Gus were making runs down our left. Strange that Burrows laid on our first goal from the right hand side.
Once Campbell came on Burrows had someone in front of him that was prepared to run into the spaces without getting caught offside.
Our right hand side, which for ages was a real problem is now our strength going forward.
Just hope that Brooks was suffering with cramp and nothing else. Although scoring a goal did seem to cure whatever he was suffering from, briefly.
 

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