30 points

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Fjortoft's Aeroplane

Fjortoft's Aeroplane

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If Forest & Everton do get further points deducted (working on the premise of 10 each) and all teams (except ourselves) maintain current form, then we'd need 30 points to survive.

16. Luton 30pts
17. Sheff Utd 30pts
18. Everton 29 pts
19. Forest 27 pts
20. Burnley 22pts

Obviously a lot of "if's and but's" but I don't think its impossible for us to get another 20 points this season.

Even if Everton don't get another 10 deducted.. 31 points gets us above Luton.

A couple more decent incomings this JTW and we've got a chance!
 

I've tried to be optimistic here with predictions. Home games in BOLD

  • Palace - 1pt
  • Villa - 1pt
  • Luton - 3pts
  • Brighton - 3pts
  • Wolves - 1pt
  • Arsenal - 0pts
  • Bournemouth - 0pts
  • Man Utd - 0pts
  • Fulham - 1pt
  • Liverpool - 0pts
  • Chelsea - 0pts
  • Brentford - 1pt
  • Burnley - 3pts
  • Newcastle - 0pts
  • Forest - 3pts
  • Everton - 1pt
  • Spurs - 1pt
That's 19pts and only 6 more defeats. It's not happening is it.

My optimism also suggests we will go 6 games unbeaten 🤣
 
It's all about making sure we're close enough for any points deductions to have any sort of impact on our placing.

Looking at the fixture lists, we'd have to win 3 points against:
Palace, Luton, Fulham, Brentford, Burnley, Forest and Everton.

We could pick up wins or draws against:
Brighton, Wolves, Bournemouth, Villa - I'll chuck Manchester United and Chelsea in there simply because neither team have a solid plan on the pitch.

A point to hope for:
Newcastle, Spurs.

Free hits (not that there are any really left):
Arsenal, Liverpool.
 
mattbianco1 said:
I've tried to be optimistic here with predictions. Home games in BOLD

  • Palace - 1pt
  • Villa - 1pt
  • Luton - 3pts
  • Brighton - 3pts
  • Wolves - 1pt
  • Arsenal - 0pts
  • Bournemouth - 0pts
  • Man Utd - 0pts
  • Fulham - 1pt
  • Liverpool - 0pts
  • Chelsea - 0pts
  • Brentford - 1pt
  • Burnley - 3pts
  • Newcastle - 0pts
  • Forest - 3pts
  • Everton - 1pt
  • Spurs - 1pt
That's 19pts and only 6 more defeats. It's not happening is it.

My optimism also suggests we will go 6 games unbeaten 🤣
Click to expand...

I quite like our form at home to Spurs. Make that 3pts ;)
 
mattbianco1 You've only got 4 wins in there. So we could lose more than 6, but turn some of those draws into wins. It's unlikely but this is what last minute pens do to my psychology.. get me all worked up just so I can be disappointed one more time.
 
It’s not as simple as just beating those teams near the bottom. As ideal as that would be it never works out like that.
Means that if you’re going to stay up you’ve got to take some points off the big six sides somewhere.
I would say you have to win at least one, maybe draw a couple at home and sneak a couple of draws away. So 7 points minimum IMHO.
You have to beat the teams around you at least once. We haven’t managed that yet.
Forest/Burnley still to come to ours while we’ve got to go to Everton and Luton.
So if we are doing this we have to win all 4 of them now. While Palace/Brighton/Fulham also look winnable games to me.
So there’s the 21 points to get us to 31.
Spurs never like coming to ours, neither do Arsenal. While what team turns up with Chelsea/Man U/Newcastle is also quite varied..:.they play like they have recently and I could see us getting something.

Whatever we do it looks like the points deduction gives us a chance, but it would still need Wilder to drive through a similar further improvement we have showed since his arrival and be consistent. He needs players in NOW to assist and we simply cannot let these signings drag to the last day, and they have to have an immediate positive impact.
 
Houston_Blade said:
Understatement of the year award so far!

We won’t even get to 20 overall.
Click to expand...

Wow you think Wilder will do worse than his last relegation season? I'd say since Wilders returned we look better than we did under him in 20/21 and we've also got 5 more points now than we did at this stage in 20/21.
 
mattbianco1 said:
Last game of the season....

United need 3pts to guarantee survival
Spurs need 3pts to guarantee a top 4 finish

0-0
Click to expand...
We were talking about this other night as one of my mates is a Spurs fan so he's already making plans for us to watch this one way or another and we said it would be sods law summet like that happens although we don't have the worst record against Spurs so could be a fun afternoon.

We throw points away too much at the moment, we can barely get ourselves ahead in a game, even when we're dominating on the front foot we concede and if we do get ahead we don't manage to hold on to the lead. Unfortunately while I think there's a chance we might scrape something out of a sheer miracle the chances of us somehow getting some composure and grinding results out are quite slim.
 
I am fairly optimistic in general but going through this list I can't see how we get enough points. What is correct is we need to go on a solid unbeaten run over the next few weeks to make sure we stay in the mix.

My list is: being hopeful
  • Palace - 3pt
  • Villa - 0pt
  • Luton - 3pts
  • Brighton - 1pts
  • Wolves - 1pt
  • Arsenal - 0pts
  • Bournemouth - 1pts
  • Man Utd - 1pts
  • Fulham - 3pt
  • Liverpool - 0pts
  • Chelsea - 0pts
  • Brentford - 1pt
  • Burnley - 3pts
  • Newcastle - 0pts
  • Forest - 3pts
  • Everton - 1pt
  • Spurs - 1pt
 
Fjortoft's Aeroplane said:
Wow you think Wilder will do worse than his last relegation season? I'd say since Wilders returned we look better than we did under him in 20/21 and we've also got 5 more points now than we did at this stage in 20/21.
Click to expand...
I tend to agree. We're down but we're better than the 23 points season.
 

mattbianco1 said:
I've tried to be optimistic here with predictions. Home games in BOLD

  • Palace - 1pt
  • Villa - 1pt
  • Luton - 3pts
  • Brighton - 3pts
  • Wolves - 1pt
  • Arsenal - 0pts
  • Bournemouth - 0pts
  • Man Utd - 0pts
  • Fulham - 1pt
  • Liverpool - 0pts
  • Chelsea - 0pts
  • Brentford - 1pt
  • Burnley - 3pts
  • Newcastle - 0pts
  • Forest - 3pts
  • Everton - 1pt
  • Spurs - 1pt
That's 19pts and only 6 more defeats. It's not happening is it.

My optimism also suggests we will go 6 games unbeaten 🤣
Click to expand...
I think we’ll beat Spurs or Chelsea but then we’ll lose to Burnley or Forest to offset it! Away I’m with you, we’ll struggle but I do think we’ll have a surprise win somewhere.
 
Fjortoft's Aeroplane said:
Wow you think Wilder will do worse than his last relegation season? I'd say since Wilders returned we look better than we did under him in 20/21 and we've also got 5 more points now than we did at this stage in 20/21.
Click to expand...
We’re playing much better than we were last time around, however there’s a definite air of ‘we’ll give them 2 goals’ every game.

The Luton game I said that we’d need 4 to win because our defence is absolutely awful and full of mistakes.

Little things yesterday like the cross field passes getting intercepted will be punished against a lot of teams.

The only way we’ll get past 20 points in my view is when we have the confirmed ‘R’ next to our name and we pick a few unexpected results up.
 
Fjortoft's Aeroplane said:
Wow you think Wilder will do worse than his last relegation season? I'd say since Wilders returned we look better than we did under him in 20/21 and we've also got 5 more points now than we did at this stage in 20/21.
Click to expand...
Actually we've got 1 fewer
This season p21 w2 d4 L15 points 10
20-21 p21 w3 d2 L16 pts 11.

That was after our one decent patch of that season when we won 3 out 5. Beating Newcastle, Man Utd and WBA and losing to Spurs and Man City. After we beat WBA, I started to think we might actually survive. We then lost 9 out of the next 10 :-(
 
mattbianco1 said:
I've tried to be optimistic here with predictions. Home games in BOLD

  • Palace - 1pt
  • Villa - 1pt
  • Luton - 3pts
  • Brighton - 3pts
  • Wolves - 1pt
  • Arsenal - 0pts
  • Bournemouth - 0pts
  • Man Utd - 0pts
  • Fulham - 1pt
  • Liverpool - 0pts
  • Chelsea - 0pts
  • Brentford - 1pt
  • Burnley - 3pts
  • Newcastle - 0pts
  • Forest - 3pts
  • Everton - 1pt
  • Spurs - 1pt
That's 19pts and only 6 more defeats. It's not happening is it.

My optimism also suggests we will go 6 games unbeaten 🤣
Click to expand...
Your prediction seems unlikely as I reckon we’ll probably beat Liverpool away.
 
Programmechap2 said:
Actually we've got 1 fewer
This season p21 w2 d4 L15 points 10
20-21 p21 w3 d2 L16 pts 11.

That was after our one decent patch of that season when we won 3 out 5. Beating Newcastle, Man Utd and WBA and losing to Spurs and Man City. After we beat WBA, I started to think we might actually survive. We then lost 9 out of the next 10 :-(
Click to expand...
I've just checked again.. I misread Man Utd away as a defeat.. but that still totals 8 points. I've got man City away down as our 21st match unless I'm mistaken? WBA was match 22 I think?
 
mattbianco1 said:
I've tried to be optimistic here with predictions. Home games in BOLD

  • Palace - 1pt
  • Villa - 1pt
  • Luton - 3pts
  • Brighton - 3pts
  • Wolves - 1pt
  • Arsenal - 0pts
  • Bournemouth - 0pts
  • Man Utd - 0pts
  • Fulham - 1pt
  • Liverpool - 0pts
  • Chelsea - 0pts
  • Brentford - 1pt
  • Burnley - 3pts
  • Newcastle - 0pts
  • Forest - 3pts
  • Everton - 1pt
  • Spurs - 1pt
That's 19pts and only 6 more defeats. It's not happening is it.

My optimism also suggests we will go 6 games unbeaten 🤣
Click to expand...
Palace are on the crest of a slump, so make it 3pts. As for the rest: Villa 1pt, Luton 1pt, Brighton 1pt, B'mouth 1pt, Fulham 3pts, Brentford 1pt, Burnley 3pts, Forest 1pt, Everton 1pt.. The rest jack shit...That's sixteen points. P38, W5, D11, L the rest.. Pts 26... Probably not enough, unless Forest and Everton appeal their -10 and get more for doing so.
 
Last edited:
mattbianco1 said:
I've tried to be optimistic here with predictions. Home games in BOLD

  • Palace - 1pt
  • Villa - 1pt
  • Luton - 3pts
  • Brighton - 3pts
  • Wolves - 1pt
  • Arsenal - 0pts
  • Bournemouth - 0pts
  • Man Utd - 0pts
  • Fulham - 1pt
  • Liverpool - 0pts
  • Chelsea - 0pts
  • Brentford - 1pt
  • Burnley - 3pts
  • Newcastle - 0pts
  • Forest - 3pts
  • Everton - 1pt
  • Spurs - 1pt
That's 19pts and only 6 more defeats. It's not happening is it.

My optimism also suggests we will go 6 games unbeaten 🤣
Click to expand...
Only 2 point combined from Bournemouth, Brentford and Everton? Might get a couple more?
 
mattbianco1 said:
I've tried to be optimistic here with predictions. Home games in BOLD

  • Palace - 1pt
  • Villa - 1pt
  • Luton - 3pts
  • Brighton - 3pts
  • Wolves - 1pt
  • Arsenal - 0pts
  • Bournemouth - 0pts
  • Man Utd - 0pts
  • Fulham - 1pt
  • Liverpool - 0pts
  • Chelsea - 0pts
  • Brentford - 1pt
  • Burnley - 3pts
  • Newcastle - 0pts
  • Forest - 3pts
  • Everton - 1pt
  • Spurs - 1pt
That's 19pts and only 6 more defeats. It's not happening is it.

My optimism also suggests we will go 6 games unbeaten 🤣
Click to expand...
Palace 3pts
Villa 0pts

and i'd go with the rest
 
We needed to win yesterday. And west ham showed very little to make me think we couldn’t have. At 1-1 and on top I said to the bloke at the side of me that we needed 2 cus they’ll get another. The opposition has very little to do for us to concede most weeks.
 
MojoMuffin said:
Bite your hand off to take our survival down to the last game of the season!
Click to expand...
Me too , and the optimism is very endearing- but I fear we would need another season of games to accumulate enough points to stay up .

But - you never know (but I think we do 😒)
 
WHY WHY WHY........................................are you grasping at straws??

We were down before a ball was kicked.
Not because of Hecky. And it wont be because of Wilder.

Lack of proper investment pre season is the reason.

Yes there will be ,hopefully, new faces this window, but theyll all be cheap gambling options. None of them will be proven PL players.

We are going down. Stop deluding yourselves.
 

djbaldken said:
WHY WHY WHY........................................are you grasping at straws??

We were down before a ball was kicked.
Not because of Hecky. And it wont be because of Wilder.

Lack of proper investment pre season is the reason.

Yes there will be ,hopefully, new faces this window, but theyll all be cheap gambling options. None of them will be proven PL players.

We are going down. Stop deluding yourselves.
Click to expand...
Totally agree that any other season we'd be down and out already and deservedly so. But take 10 points off Forest and another 10 off Everton and there's all to play for.
 
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