14 games to go

[ReeceofBDTBL]

5 points behind 2nd, they’ve got two games in hand and we have to play eachother again.

Same situation as us with the pigs in 2012 (well, almost), granted they won 13 and drew 1 but we didn’t really collapse until the last 3 games.

Beat Bournemouth and all they need is a bad few weeks and they’re there to be shot at

 

[Micky Narker]

The amount of clean sheets the lads are getting makes me think we can go unbeaten till end of season even with injuries. Tough but not impossible. If we do that we could nick second.

 

[Blacksea]

Still think injuries and suspensions will do for us,if we had brought in more cover in January instead of the bare minimum we might not be fretting about them now.14 games is a long way with a depleted squad,if some of these don't come back soon, we could be really struggling because for sure,more knocks are coming.If we can keep grinding out results while we get a few back,we might be in a position to finish strong,at the moment I feel that we are at full stretch and the opponents coming up will exploit that.

 

[CPB]

I still think that even if we keep up the good form 2nd is out of touch.
Although I do feel that 3rd is achievable currently.

Really if we did manage 2nd it would be because Bournemouth stalled a bit.

If we can keep the form going I reckon we will finish on about 77 pts which would get us play offs of course being realistic.
If we can keep the actual form going in terms of results at the minute we would get about 85 pts which can be enough for 2nd sometime.

I think being realistic can we keep up the results and performances for the next 14 to bridge the gap to 2nd. Reckon it's a big ask.
Playoffs though are now a real possibility.

 

[Plymouthblade]

One game at a time, don’t give in till the fat lady sings, swings and roundabouts, woooooooo hooooo fucking steam train incoming
Fuck the innuendos second place achievable UTFB

 

[Stretch]

It was the defence that really gave us the final push on the last promotion.

After that late equaliser by Millwall, a lot of people (Leeds in particular) thought we had bottled it at the worst possible time. To the contrary, it gave the team a kick up the backside and we barely conceded a goal after that.

The Preston result may just have done the same thing for us this season. We'll see....

 

[LewishamBlade]

I still think that even if we keep up the good form 2nd is out of touch.
Although I do feel that 3rd is achievable currently.

Really if we did manage 2nd it would be because Bournemouth stalled a bit.

If we can keep the form going I reckon we will finish on about 77 pts which would get us play offs of course being realistic.
If we can keep the actual form going in terms of results at the minute we would get about 85 pts which can be enough for 2nd sometime.

I think being realistic can we keep up the results and performances for the next 14 to bridge the gap to 2nd. Reckon it's a big ask.
Playoffs though are now a real possibility.

Which is definitely not out of the question. They’re only where they are now because they had an absolutely unbelievable start. Their form since November has been sketchy at best.

 

[LewishamBlade]

It was the defence that really gave us the final push on the last promotion.

After that late equaliser by Millwall, a lot of people (Leeds in particular) thought we had bottled it at the worst possible time. To the contrary, it gave the team a kick up the backside and we barely conceded a goal after that.

The Preston result may just have done the same thing for us this season. We'll see....

I’m thinking more Preston is this seasons Villa…

 

[JJBlade]

This is assuming we continue on our good run, and that would mean continuing for 29 games in total

 

[Stretch]

I’m thinking more Preston is this seasons Villa…

Yeah it works for both I suppose. 2 huge wake up calls that season.

 

[raimond]

To realistically catch Bournemouth and get 2nd;

Biggest worry/negative- injuries, especially if it was Billy or MGW.

Biggest encouragement/positive- Scott Parker.

 

[BigBed]

This is nice too....

 

[Berkshire Blade]

One game at a time. I don't think it's impossible but it's unlikely. That said if we make 3 points up on them over the weekend the pressure would start to build.

 

[Kozzy_is_my_Dad]

I've been growingly upbeat in recent weeks, but the growing injuries really do concern me.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

Our current form and glut of clean sheets is unsustainable.

We've also got a few injuries mounting up and we've still got four matches to play against the current top three.

Hope I'm wrong but I think we'll run out of steam and finish 7th or 8th.

 

[Seth Rollins]

Our current form and glut of clean sheets is unsustainable.

We've also got a few injuries mounting up and we've still got four matches to play against the current top three.

Hope I'm wrong but I think we'll run out of steam and finish 7th or 8th.

That’s the spirit. Think positive.

 

[bakeblade]

Still think injuries and suspensions will do for us,if we had brought in more cover in January instead of the bare minimum we might not be fretting about them now.14 games is a long way with a depleted squad,if some of these don't come back soon, we could be really struggling because for sure,more knocks are coming.If we can keep grinding out results while we get a few back,we might be in a position to finish strong,at the moment I feel that we are at full stretch and the opponents coming up will exploit that.

Easy in hindsight, I think most people were comfortable with our defensive and midfield cover after signing Goode and retaining MGW.
I was more concerned with the striker situation and thought we should have brought in a extra striker.

 

[Blacksea]

Easy in hindsight, I think most people were comfortable with our defensive and midfield cover after signing Goode and retaining MGW.
I was more concerned with the striker situation and thought we should have brought in a extra striker.

It's not hindsight,we got the bare minimum and one outfield player.Plenty of us were waiting for more including me.By the end of the window all the postponed games had built up so everybody knew the workload we faced.Forest lost Grabban the day after we lost Brewster,the weekend before the window closes and they still shelled out for a striker on deadline day,we left things to chance and it might cost us.

 

[BigBed]

Easy in hindsight, I think most people were comfortable with our defensive and midfield cover after signing Goode and retaining MGW.
I was more concerned with the striker situation and thought we should have brought in a extra striker.

Think we may need to sell one or two of the 15 we currently have, before we bring in another.......

 

[Snowflake]

Still think injuries and suspensions will do for us,if we had brought in more cover in January instead of the bare minimum we might not be fretting about them now.14 games is a long way with a depleted squad,if some of these don't come back soon, we could be really struggling because for sure,more knocks are coming.If we can keep grinding out results while we get a few back,we might be in a position to finish strong,at the moment I feel that we are at full stretch and the opponents coming up will exploit that.

We had two for each position plus three keepers. We didn’t need more players who would not be in the squad nor were likely to play.

 

[raul]

This 14 games thread > the other 14 games thread.

 

[Blacksea]

We had two for each position plus three keepers. We didn’t need more players who would not be in the squad nor were likely to play.

They would be in the squad and would play with all the injuries we have.Most teams with any ambition cover themselves against injuries and suspension,plus we only had 1 in form forward,now we still have that 1 in form forward and less of the put of form ones to throw in.

 

[ucandomagic]

See my latest graph below - updated with others after each match under a new thread Updated Graphs - Date

The Graph shows our progress against the 3 benchmark sets of results which I created to achieve 3 different objectives when Hecky took over: -

a chance of the playoffs (71 points);
almost certain playoff achievement (78 points).
almost certain automatic promotion (90 points).

In reality for autos we need 12 wins from 14 to be pretty certain, 11 to have a decent chance and 10 to have any realistic chance. With our current form this is not impossible, but in reality unlikely unless we keep the form and luck of the Blackburn game, and no more injuries to vital positions.

The good news is, that if we can get some pressure on Bournemouth with 5 to go their last 5 are home to Fulham, away at Swansea, away at Blackburn, home to Forest and home to Millwall. So at least 3 losable games if you're under pressure.

The Championship is Magic

 

[ucandomagic]

Just knocked up a direct comparison of our points v Bournemouth points.
They were on a real slump, but unfortunately have picked up and won their last 3.
After we lost Game 17 at Blackburn we had 19 points - Bournemouth had 40 points after their Game 17.
After 30 Games we had 47 points and Bournemouth have 58 - so we closed the gap by 10 points in 13 games - and we have won both since.
As I said in the earlier post - we play them in the 6th game from the end and their last 5 are not easy - so if we can beat them and be within 6 with 5 to go there is just a chance.
More fun than looking at possible survival last year!
With Hecky, Jack and Stuart McCall

 

[Snowflake]

They would be in the squad and would play with all the injuries we have.Most teams with any ambition cover themselves against injuries and suspension,plus we only had 1 in form forward,now we still have that 1 in form forward and less of the put of form ones to throw in.

At the time it would have been madness to employ more who would not have been in the nominated squad and therefore not playing. Who would have come on that basis ?

 

[Blacksea]

At the time it would have been madness to employ more who would not have been in the nominated squad and therefore not playing. Who would have come on that basis ?

Whoever the recruitment team decided would improve and strengthen the squad.

 

[Snowflake]

Whoever the recruitment team decided would improve and strengthen the squad.

Then you would have had existing members of the squad not playing but still being paid.

 

[Blacksea]

Then you would have had existing members of the squad not playing but still being paid.

We got rid of Burke,Mousette,Slater,Freeman,Verrips and brought 2 in,so that meant we must have already had 3 in the squad and not able to play.

 

[CornwallBlade]

Our current form and glut of clean sheets is unsustainable.

We've also got a few injuries mounting up and we've still got four matches to play against the current top three.

Hope I'm wrong but I think we'll run out of steam and finish 7th or 8th.

The point is that it is in our hands now. As you say, we have to play the top 3 - win those and it’s on. At least we’re not in the position of hoping a relegated side gets a result or someone does someone a favour by fielding a depleted side. Wherever we finish is down to us. I’m hopeful and confident, as long as our key players remain fit.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

The point is that it is in our hands now.

What's in our hands?