Collins and confirmation bias

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William Henry Foulkes said:
If you go to the match looking for all the things he does wrong then you'll see plenty. That's true of all players, though for whatever reason some get singled out and others don't.
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As a football Knows Nowt, my simple observation is that the further up the pitch you are the more you can get away with. Adams has missed some sitters, Sharp certainly has but they also score so all is forgiven, not a problem. And it really isn't a problem, as a striker score 1 every other match you can pretty much be as 'awful' in between as you want.

However, goalkeepers and to a lesser extent defenders don't have that luxury. Pull off a worldy save then great but flap at a cross, misjudge the flight of the ball or whatever the goalie equivalent of missing a sitter is and you are hung, drawn and quartered (as your errors end up in the net). I'm afraid it's just how it is. Defenders and keepers even more so don't get away with errors.

We are scoring quite freely at the moment but conceding just as freely, so it MUST be the keeper who is at fault or if not his defence. This might be valid, but also a very simplistic view. The problem may lay in midfield, or with the tictacs but as a Knows Nowt I can't identify that, and I'm afraid the vast majority of fans (and no doubt forum members) know as much or more to the point as little as me.

So yes you are correct Fatty, we are conceding, so go looking for errors in the defence or for your favourite scapegoat and they will rarely disappoint.

Do be careful not to point out what they do well mind you!
 



1danewhitehouse said:
At the time of giving my match ratings, I noticed Collins had a lower rating than McGahey and he has been slated in quite a few threads too. Have a look back at both goals. McGahey is beaten in the air whilst turning away from the ball as he went up to head it for the first one though there was a big element of luck about it.

2nd Goal. McGahey is beaten in the air again despite doubling up with Freeman. Hammond then doesn't pick up his runner which means Collins has to leave his position to come across to the crosser and Wallace can't get to O Brien in time.

Collins was at fault for neither goal and played the very good forward pass to Sharp to set Adams up to hit the post. He also made several good headed clearances. He was our main threat on set pieces again despite being guilty yet again of heading one over the bar when he perhaps should have scored.

I think people see what they want to see with him sometimes though. He looks clumsy and moves slowly and I think that makes people distrust him but whilst he is no world-beater, he is a relatively solid and reliable centre half at this level.

I'm not trying to trash McGahey either. He's a young lad and will make mistakes but he was more at fault than Collins for both goals though Adams takes some blame for the first as well as he let the crosser have all the space in the world like he was taking a free kick. Hammond is partly culpable for the 2nd as he lost his midfield runner.
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Spot on. It's been frustrating the hell out of me since the weekend and it's great that you've raised it.

Collins wasn't at fault at all for either goal [not that anyone really was for the first]. In fact, for me, I'd say he provided one of the best individual performances on the day.

All too often, however, he's the focus of fans criticism and so often this season, it has been unfounded, unnecessary and unfair. Accepted, he isn't the greatest CH we've ever had at the lane but he's far from the worst. He's been a great servant of the club, and for me apart from Basham, he's still the best we have [and remains the only one who's consistently a threat up front]. Collins isn't the problem and at this level he still has a lot to offer the team. It's easy to forget just how many times he was there to rescue the 'superstar Master McGuire' and he simply doesn't deserve the hammering he gets from certain quarters.

For me, if you want to see the best of Collins, then put Basham at the side of him once and for all and let the two of them form a consistent pairing that will serve us well for the rest of the season.

UTB
 
1danewhitehouse said:
So far this season, the following players have played centre half at some point or another


Collins

McEveley

Edgar

McGahey

Basham

Kennedy

K. Wallace


For me, Collins is better than McEveley, Wallace, or McGahey there. In some games I think he’s been better than Edgar too but Edgar probably has more to his all round game. Kennedy and Basham have largely not been options due to Kennedy’s knees and Bahsam needing to be in midfield. Edgar has been injured so that leaves Collins as, for me, the standout best centre half we have to pick from. Yes he’s limited, yes he’s slow but he’s not the appalling player some make him out to be. He had a relatively good spell last season for Vale (compare that to McGahey at Tranmere). He provides an attacking threat at set pieces. He always plays on the left side of the defence, a more difficult job for all the right footed centre halves. He's also proven that with a good partner (Maguire), he can be part of a very effective defence.


Yes it’s an area to improve going forward but for me, he has to play at the moment. Now we have Hammond though, I would be tempted to drop Basham in alongside him in place of McGahey and play Hammond, Coutts and Baxter through the middle with Adams and one of JCR/Done flanking Sharp.
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You said it - He's limited and slow (totally useless with the ball is at his feet) and that's exactly why we sit so deep - cost us from day one in this league. I agree Basham at CB but with anyone but Colo, please!
 
William Henry Foulkes said:
Great post and as mentioned above I could have posted almost exactly this after a recent game (Oldham?).

He got poor ratings having done nothing wrong and several things right.

He's fine at this level, but, for whatever reason, a significant number of fans seem to want to attack the club and individual players on a regular and often fairly random basis. Depressing.

UTMB
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That's exactly why we are still playing at this level - because Collins is still in the team
 
William Henry Foulkes said:
For me Collins has played well all season.

Evidence and reason don't always have the desired outcome though.

Can't easily post the link but the immediate responses here remind me of the Backfire Effect at YANSS.
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Whilst I understand your opinion here, I think that "Collins playing well" is a relative issue. he is probably the best of our current CHs ( not yet completely made my mind up about Edgar yet ) but I would swap him in a heartbeat for most of the CHs in any other team we have played against this season, in the league.

I'm not just nit-picking here ..... for example, there were 4 occasions on Saturday when he headed a clearance to a spot centrally, just outside our penalty area. Suicide !! Fortunately, we weren't punished for any of them but we need two big, tough, commanding, dominant CHs to get out of this league ........
UTB & FTP
 
We have been spoilt in the past with CB's who have carried the ball out of the back 4 and done their defensive job as well (McGrath, Jags, Kilgallon & Maguire in recent memory). They've normally had a "solid" defender next to them as well.

At the moment we have "kick/head/tackle" type defenders who aren't even that great as kicking, heading or tackling. This is mainly due to the league we are in and the money that we are now paying comparative to what the aforementioned would have wanted at the time. Collins is by no means terrible but he's not the solid presence we need in their either. Don't really know of anyone available at the moment who is though.

What we need to do in January is be on the front foot and actually buy someone who is doing well at their club in this position, this would buck the trend in us buying/loaning players who are surplus to requirements elsewhere (Brayford, Sharp, Sammon, Edgar & Hammond to some degree were all out of favour at their parent/prior clubs).
 
William Henry Foulkes said:
He's played well in pretty much every game this season. Covered for McGahey on a number of occasions, as he should. Got in the odd useful recovery block. As Bergen Blade has pointed out numerous times the problems have generally been in midfield.

I actually thought about posting something almost identical to the OP (and with that thread title) after seeing him have a particularly good game recently - and double checking it on BP.
  • Collins does simple things well for this level
  • He's generally fairly comfortable on the ball
  • He's obviously passionate about playing
  • Has made some decent passes
  • but his distribution can be wayward
He's decent enough at this level but the pitchforks are out for him and Howard.

If you go to the match looking for all the things he does wrong then you'll see plenty. That's true of all players, though for whatever reason some get singled out and others don't.
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You're completely wrong in my opinion.
The first season he had with Maguire was a season we conceded plenty of goals and only finished 3rd because we scored a metric fucktonne of goals.

The good run of form under Clough and the FA cup was because we didn't press past the half way line and we defended in our own half (even in the league) in depth with the protection of a hard working midfield 5 and false 9 to give huge protection to the defence.

Seriously, when has he EVER held it together for us at the back? His reading of the game, his leadership, teamwork, basic defending (fuck was that half arsed attempt to stop the cross for the second goal on Saturday) and positioning are appalling even at this level.

I'm also not one to wish a player well when he knows he wasn't good enough to play for a club.
I'll praise and thank someone like Billy Sharp who's got the technical ability AND works his nuts off, that's when you know a player cares. Not some clown who's one of the big reasons we were down in this league in the first place and has continued to leach off us and play his part in the repeated failures of the last 5 years.

I don't rate him tbh
 
Excellent thread and some brave posts. Brave! You have to be to post in favour of Collins.

Or McEveley, or Baxter (mind you some are backing off Baxter these days at last).
 
Nedski said:
I'd rather have Wallace Basham Kennedy Freeman until we get a new centre back and Brayford returns
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Me too but that cannot and will not happen because Kennedy’s can’t play a run of games at all. He’ll be gone at the end of his contract and will be no more than cover for injuries til then. As good as he may be, you can’t build a defence on a player who might play 1 game in 3. I
 
Nedski said:
Collins had a good season the year he had a very good partner next to him and a good midfield in front of him. Since he's had to "step up" as one of our so-called better (experienced) players, we've been awful at the back.
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Our Defence was pretty good for the first 3 years down here. All the time we had Maguire and Collins at the back. Collins isn’t good enough to be the best centre half we have and for that to be OK. But he can do most of the basics alongside a very good centre half who can also play more than him.


For those 3 years we had a decent defensive record despite having very ordinary goalkeepers.
 



William Henry Foulkes said:
Great post and as mentioned above I could have posted almost exactly this after a recent game (Oldham?).

He got poor ratings having done nothing wrong and several things right.

He's fine at this level, but, for whatever reason, a significant number of fans seem to want to attack the club and individual players on a regular and often fairly random basis. Depressing.

UTMB
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I suppose we all see it differently WHF. I remember you making a similar comment about McEveley and I didn’t agree with you on that but we share the same view on Collins. As an old wise man on blades mad likes to say, it’s all abart opinions.
 
mosbolad said:
However, goalkeepers and to a lesser extent defenders don't have that luxury. Pull off a worldy save then great but flap at a cross, misjudge the flight of the ball or whatever the goalie equivalent of missing a sitter is and you are hung, drawn and quartered (as your errors end up in the net). I'm afraid it's just how it is. Defenders and keepers even more so don't get away with errors.
Click to expand...


I agree with this point but to some extent, I think that’s how it should be. Attacking players are paid to make things happen. Defensive players are paid to stop them happening. So a defender can be a relatively crap footballer but what matters is that he doesn’t make those mistakes. Adams makes loads of mistakes every game but he can also provide moments of inspiration during games so is worth his place. That’s the nature of his role and the crux of why I don’t like to see McEveley in our defence. He makes too many mistakes despite, in my opinion, quite often playing out from the back quite nicely when he’s at centre half. My point in the OP is that Collins doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Very few of our goals conceded seem to be his fault (in my view). He fulfils the basic requirements of a centre half. He just doesn’t offer much more than that. That’s why I agree he is a player where we could look for an improvement (someone who does his defensive job but can also play and who is more mobile) but I’m struggling to see why people want him lynched when we concede goals when very few of the goals conceded are his fault.

Colchester at home he was culpable along with others for failing to deal with their pace and movement but I can't really remember another time that he's been particularly at fault for goals conceded.
 
This point may have been made but surely the comparison between fans' reactions to Collins and McGahey's performance at the weekend takes into account their relative career positions?

If the two of them make a similar number of mistakes then I'd expect McGahey to be treated less harshly. He's the younger player and has the opportunity to improve with experience. My issue with Collins is that his limitations have been clear for years now - lack of pace, poor technique under pressure and routinely dreadful clearances - yet he's still here. Not that it excuses McGahey's poor showing on Saturday but the signs are there that he may develop into a decent centre half.

What we desperately need is a replacement for Collins. He's not good enough for a side hoping for promotion out of the third tier and I have a feeling that McGahey's performances would improve dramatically playing with Edgar rather than Collins.
 
ReeceofBDTBL said:
You're completely wrong in my opinion.
The first season he had with Maguire was a season we conceded plenty of goals and only finished 3rd because we scored a metric fucktonne of goals.

The good run of form under Clough and the FA cup was because we didn't press past the half way line and we defended in our own half (even in the league) in depth with the protection of a hard working midfield 5 and false 9 to give huge protection to the defence.

Seriously, when has he EVER held it together for us at the back? His reading of the game, his leadership, teamwork, basic defending (fuck was that half arsed attempt to stop the cross for the second goal on Saturday) and positioning are appalling even at this level.

I'm also not one to wish a player well when he knows he wasn't good enough to play for a club.
I'll praise and thank someone like Billy Sharp who's got the technical ability AND works his nuts off, that's when you know a player cares. Not some clown who's one of the big reasons we were down in this league in the first place and has continued to leach off us and play his part in the repeated failures of the last 5 years.

I don't rate him tbh
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So what we can deduce is that he's OK in a team that doesn't defend high up the pitch but struggles in a team that does?

That would probably be fair.

I don't think it's fair to blame him for the 2nd goal on Saturday though. He was left in a 2 v 1 situation and tried to position himself as best he could to let others get back. The absence and lost header from McGahey and the failure to track the midfield runner by (I think) Hammond were much bigger issues.
 
Balham Blade said:
This point may have been made but surely the comparison between fans' reactions to Collins and McGahey's performance at the weekend takes into account their relative career positions?

If the two of them make a similar number of mistakes then I'd expect McGahey to be treated less harshly. He's the younger player and has the opportunity to improve with experience. My issue with Collins is that his limitations have been clear for years now - lack of pace, poor technique under pressure and routinely dreadful clearances - yet he's still here. Not that it excuses McGahey's poor showing on Saturday but the signs are there that he may develop into a decent centre half.

What we desperately need is a replacement for Collins. He's not good enough for a side hoping for promotion out of the third tier and I have a feeling that McGahey's performances would improve dramatically playing with Edgar rather than Collins.
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Has Edgar every played as the left sided CB? Has McGahey?

I agree with some of the sentiment of your post but it's not just a case of Collins being treated more harshly for a similarly poor performance to McGahey. That would be more understandable given the point each is at in their respective careers. It's a case of Collins being slaughtered for McGahey's mistakes despite playing far better than him.
 
1danewhitehouse said:
I suppose we all see it differently WHF. I remember you making a similar comment about McEveley and I didn’t agree with you on that but we share the same view on Collins. As an old wise man on blades mad likes to say, it’s all abart opinions.
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Did you see this from Bergen Blade about all McEveley's involvement against Rochdale? That was when he took that throw in that Done wasn't looking at. You see that, remember that, and think he was crap but...

1 wins header

3 throw in to Scougall

3 decent cross field pass

5 good interception high up the pitch, but then tackled

6 wins header

6 good challenge/interception, found Scougall

6 neutral pass infield to Baxter

8 closing down Vincenti

8.54 Poor throw in, attempted to Done, but intercepted

9 player ran at him, poor shot

10 closing down Vincenti, who made backwards pass

11 throw in intercepted by Vincenti

12 throw in, then balooned cross

13 ran on ball , passed to Coutts, who found Done who found Scougs with cross

13 beats Vincenti in the air

14 passes back to Howard

16 throw in to Sharp

17 throw in to Sharp

19 throw in to Sharp

19 throw in to Coutts who then lost ball, but then won it back

23 Vincenti wins a flick on (think McEv also got a touch to it)

25 Long ball to Sharp who's beaten in the air

25 Throws in to Che, gets ball back, gives it back to Che with clever touch

28 Good touch giving it to Coutts. goal a bit later

30 wants throw in when Vincenti heads a ball that looked to have crossed side line

30 wins ball, gives it to Coutts

31 a dangerous cross just evades him and Vincenti (could have marked tighter?)

32 throws in to Scougall

34 throws in to Che, gets it back. Overhit cross.

37 pass to Collins

37 miskicks spinning ball, goes out for throw in.

38 heads ball to Che

38 beats Vincenti in the air

39 beats Vincenti in the air, but ball bounces backwards to Collins who nods it out of touch

41 gets a challenge/toe on the ball in the box

46 pass up to Sharp, who commits foul

48 wins header

50 gets injured when challenging a player in the box

http://www.s24su.com/forum/index.php?threads/united-3-rochdale-2-report.42429/page-4#post-849637

I thought he was poor that game but then you read this and wonder, again, about confirmation bias.
 
William Henry Foulkes said:
Did you see this from Bergen Blade about all McEveley's involvement against Rochdale? That was when he took that throw in that Done wasn't looking at. You see that, remember that, and think he was crap but...

1 wins header

3 throw in to Scougall

3 decent cross field pass

5 good interception high up the pitch, but then tackled

6 wins header

6 good challenge/interception, found Scougall

6 neutral pass infield to Baxter

8 closing down Vincenti

8.54 Poor throw in, attempted to Done, but intercepted

9 player ran at him, poor shot

10 closing down Vincenti, who made backwards pass

11 throw in intercepted by Vincenti

12 throw in, then balooned cross

13 ran on ball , passed to Coutts, who found Done who found Scougs with cross

13 beats Vincenti in the air

14 passes back to Howard

16 throw in to Sharp

17 throw in to Sharp

19 throw in to Sharp

19 throw in to Coutts who then lost ball, but then won it back

23 Vincenti wins a flick on (think McEv also got a touch to it)

25 Long ball to Sharp who's beaten in the air

25 Throws in to Che, gets ball back, gives it back to Che with clever touch

28 Good touch giving it to Coutts. goal a bit later

30 wants throw in when Vincenti heads a ball that looked to have crossed side line

30 wins ball, gives it to Coutts

31 a dangerous cross just evades him and Vincenti (could have marked tighter?)

32 throws in to Scougall

34 throws in to Che, gets it back. Overhit cross.

37 pass to Collins

37 miskicks spinning ball, goes out for throw in.

38 heads ball to Che

38 beats Vincenti in the air

39 beats Vincenti in the air, but ball bounces backwards to Collins who nods it out of touch

41 gets a challenge/toe on the ball in the box

46 pass up to Sharp, who commits foul

48 wins header

50 gets injured when challenging a player in the box

http://www.s24su.com/forum/index.php?threads/united-3-rochdale-2-report.42429/page-4#post-849637

I thought he was poor that game but then you read this and wonder, again, about confirmation bias.
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That's valid but it's one game. Some do overreact once they've got a negative view of a player but the reason for my difference in stance between Collins and McEveley is outlined in post #47. McEveley for me, has been culpable for far too many goals and makes the same mistakes over and over again. Collins conversely costs us very few goals in my opinion.
 
1danewhitehouse said:
Me too but that cannot and will not happen because Kennedy’s can’t play a run of games at all. He’ll be gone at the end of his contract and will be no more than cover for injuries til then. As good as he may be, you can’t build a defence on a player who might play 1 game in 3. I
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Just a random thought but he seems to have constant problems with his knees. I don't suppose it's anything to do with him being not that tall and having to really spring when he jumps?
 
BushBlade said:
Just a random thought but he seems to have constant problems with his knees. I don't suppose it's anything to do with him being not that tall and having to really spring when he jumps?
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I'm told it's from playing too often as a youngster often on bad pitches and that he basically has no cartilage left in his knees.
 
1danewhitehouse said:
I'm told it's from playing too often as a youngster often on bad pitches and that he basically has no cartilage left in his knees.
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Did he play on a different pitch to everyone else?

Sorry, I'm in one of those moods.
 
William Henry Foulkes said:
He's played well in pretty much every game this season. Covered for McGahey on a number of occasions, as he should. Got in the odd useful recovery block. As Bergen Blade has pointed out numerous times the problems have generally been in midfield.

I actually thought about posting something almost identical to the OP (and with that thread title) after seeing him have a particularly good game recently - and double checking it on BP.
  • Collins does simple things well for this level
  • He's generally fairly comfortable on the ball
  • He's obviously passionate about playing
  • Has made some decent passes
  • but his distribution can be wayward
He's decent enough at this level but the pitchforks are out for him and Howard.

If you go to the match looking for all the things he does wrong then you'll see plenty. That's true of all players, though for whatever reason some get singled out and others don't.
Click to expand...
You're at it again with this 'Bergen Blade' stuff - are you stalking him?
 



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