6th is Still Doable “Updated Charts & Graphs After Hoops”- Matchday 35

[john Mathison]

If you look at the table, we have won more games than all the teams above us, outside the top six. Even Disney FC, have only equalled our total.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

If you look at the table, we have won more games than all the teams above us, outside the top six. Even Disney FC, have only equalled our total.

The problem is that only West Brom and Wednesday have lost more games than us.

If we'd drawn a few of those we'd still be in with a sniff.

 

[Guesty]

Draws are for cowards.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

And my challenge is on what evidence is it "realistic" given we have lost 17 games this season so far.

If you bothered to read what I wrote, I pointed out that we could easily lose 2 of our remaining games and still get to a 75 point total.

We probably won’t - and either Disney or Saints will probably get 78 and make 75 irrelevant - but we don’t have to self-flagellate worrying about it - we’re all going to die, but we can still put it off as long as possible, and have as much fun as we can before it happens!

UTB & FTP!

 

[The Fox]

Lots of things are both possible and improbable at the same time - this is one of them .

We've had a good run for the last few months and still not yet made it to the top half of the league .

If a miracle happened and we made it to the play offs , then even more of a miracle actually won them , my worry is next season would be one to watch from behind the sofa.

I'd really like to enjoy next season in the championship , hopefully being around the top 6 all season and feeling hopeful .

 

[Selly]

If a miracle happened and we made it to the play offs , then even more of a miracle actually won them

Given our record in the playoffs I actually think the second one of these is less likely than the first.

 

[mattbianco1]

I do like the colour-coded league table that ucandomagic offers up as it helps you visualise where peoples strengths are.

I've plotted out that table for all clubs between United and Hull. It shows that we have been very weak against the top teams, but decent against the bottom. The rest of the league just appear totally scatter gun. Birmingham's away form isn't great. Last night was only their 2nd home defeat though.

Anyway, i thought i'd share

 

[Sithblade]

Didn't realise we'd been that good over the last 20 games.

 

[mattbianco1]

Didn't realise we'd been that good over the last 20 games.

We're 2nd to Ipswich in the last 20.

 

[MayorOJC]

I do like the colour-coded league table that ucandomagic offers up as it helps you visualise where peoples strengths are.

I've plotted out that table for all clubs between United and Hull. It shows that we have been very weak against the top teams, but decent against the bottom. The rest of the league just appear totally scatter gun. Birmingham's away form isn't great. Last night was only their 2nd home defeat though.

Anyway, i thought i'd share

View attachment 232451

Watford look in quite a strong position. Plenty of winnable bottom half games there.

 

[Geordie Blade]

I do like the colour-coded league table that ucandomagic offers up as it helps you visualise where peoples strengths are.

I've plotted out that table for all clubs between United and Hull. It shows that we have been very weak against the top teams, but decent against the bottom. The rest of the league just appear totally scatter gun. Birmingham's away form isn't great. Last night was only their 2nd home defeat though.

Anyway, i thought i'd share

View attachment 232451

They all look like they're doing ok on row 24 though.

 

[Sithblade]

We're 2nd to Ipswich in the last 20.

View attachment 232462

You'd think Ben would know that.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

I do like the colour-coded league table that ucandomagic offers up as it helps you visualise where peoples strengths are.

I've plotted out that table for all clubs between United and Hull. It shows that we have been very weak against the top teams, but decent against the bottom. The rest of the league just appear totally scatter gun. Birmingham's away form isn't great. Last night was only their 2nd home defeat though.

Anyway, i thought i'd share

View attachment 232451

It’s very interesting trying to understand different win/loss patterns. Wilder’s seasons always seem to split between very good low down - bottom half or two thirds - and quite poor against top teams. Even in the 100 point League 1 season we didn’t win a single away game against any of the Top 6.

I always reckon it’s because he gets the absolute max out of generally average players, but even that falls down against higher quality.

I find the Birmingham colours particularly interesting on your table. Their away form is dreadful against all the top two thirds. Clearly, they must make no tactical compromise when playing away.

I wonder if this is the Tom Brady nfl influence. In the nfl there are almost no ties - as every level game goes to an extra 30.

Brady was a serial winner, and I can well imagine Chris Davies to have been instructed never to settle for a draw!

UTB & FTP!

 

[mattbianco1]

Interesting that all above us have to play 1 or 2 of the top 4. United have played them all twice

 

[LurkerBlade]

Winning 9 of the last 11 would be great for us but that would still mean that Wrexham would have to lose 5 of their 11.

That's the bit I struggle with considering their form and season as they've only lost 8 in 35 - nothing is impossible I guess but I just want to win as many as possible without getting any hopes up.

 

[JasonEllis]

I don't think we will, but I sure hope we do!

 

[NathTheBlade]

One game at a time, so much could change within 1 week with 3 big games coming upUTB

 

[blade67]

Had to scroll a way down to find this, which probably indicates that we've largely accepted it's no longer on after yesterday.

I see that of our 10 remaining games, 5 are against the 6 teams just above us.

7 wins and 2 draws to give us a chance, which this team don't look capable of.

 

[Carlton Blade]

United have taken 40 points from the 22 matches from QPR at home onwards. It's a great record to get to 49 points from 36 games having only taken 9 points from the first 14, and it's dug the club out of a huge whole.

But that's still only 1.8 ppg. Over the last 11 games, we've only taken 17 points, that's only 1.5 ppg. Having the 5 remaining away games be against competent teams makes me think it's going to be a challenge to just maintain that.

Southampton, Derby and Wrexham are currently in better form than United, 6th place is looking like it will be 74+ points.

Based on recent form and recent performances, I don't see 26+ points coming from the last 10. 65-68 points seems likely.

 

[LBA_Blade]

I know I’m deluded – but I’ve been going for over 55 years, and I’ve seen that anything can happen.

Look at the League Table below.

We’re in 13th spot – our highest of the season – we still have to play 6 of those challenging for 6th place with us.
The only one we don’t play is Saints.
I believe if we get above Wrexham and Saints we finish 6th.

Wrexham’s Fixtures are Hull, Swansea, Watford, Blades, West Brom, Southampton, Birmingham, Stoke, Oxford, Coventry, Boro!
If they don’t stumble somewhere along there, then they probably deserve to get 6th.

Saints’ Fixtures are West Brom, Coventry, Norwich, Oxford, Ipswich, Wrexham, Derby, Swansea, Bristol City, Blackburn, Preston.
We don’t get to play them, but there are still a few tasty challenges in there for them.

League Table:
View attachment 232276

Given a fair wind, I think the “Playoff Dream” path on Table 1 and Graph 1 can get us to 75, and I think that will be enough.
The Football Gods have kicked us in the balls enough times over the years, it’s time for them to deliver.

Table 1:
View attachment 232277

Graph 1:
View attachment 232278


Incidentally, as of this morning, we were already 5th in this Table based on general performance! :-

View attachment 232280

UTB & Slava Ukraini!

Although a bit of shithousry to bring this up it is interesting to note that the prediction of 75 points would have been just enough to get us into the playoffs when on these graphs. Some great stats work !

 

[Gimli]

Although a bit of shithousry to bring this up it is interesting to note that the prediction of 75 points would have been just enough to get us into the playoffs when on these graphs. Some great stats work !

Saw the thread title, probably at this point it’s fair to say that ‘6th is not still doable’