Top 9 minileague

[Balham]

With all the noise about our performances and results, the belief in some corners that Watford (11 points back), Boro (12 points) and West Brom (13 points) are going to catch us and that run of games in February and March I thought I'd see how the top sides match up this season. Below the play offs the division is tight but I had to draw a line somewhere so I took the top 10, conveniently Sunderland in 10th is the last team capable of getting into the top 6 in the next round of games without needing a goal difference swing as well as results to go their way.

In that minileague, coincidentally, Watford are out in front with 20 points from 11 games. We are second with 18 from 9, Blackburn third with 18 from 11 and Burnley 4th with 16 from 9. As with the full league table only United and Burnley have a goal difference worthy of the name. We've also only lost once to these teams, against Watford on the opening day with our other defeats coming against midtable (QPR, Coventry) or bottom third (Rotherham, Stoke) teams.

Norwich have changed manager recently but Wagner has his work cut out to turn this around; losing 7 of 11 so far against other top teams suggests they're not good enough for a promotion push.



Millwall will be interesting: they've beaten the only three top 10 sides to visit the Den: Boro (2-0), Watford (3-0) and West Brom (2-1) with the other 6 yet to visit although we obviously won fairly comfortably in the Cup earlier in the month. They have an awful record on the road against the top sides though, losing 6 of 7 so far.

There's still a long way to go. For what it's worth, the fixtures grid looks like this (home sides in the columns, away in the rows).

 

[Snowflake]

With all the noise about our performances and results, the belief in some corners that Watford (11 points back), Boro (12 points) and West Brom (13 points) are going to catch us and that run of games in February and March I thought I'd see how the top sides match up this season. Below the play offs the division is tight but I had to draw a line somewhere so I took the top 10, conveniently Sunderland in 10th is the last team capable of getting into the top 6 in the next round of games without needing a goal difference swing as well as results to go their way.

In that minileague, coincidentally, Watford are out in front with 20 points from 11 games. We are second with 18 from 9, Blackburn third with 18 from 11 and Burnley 4th with 16 from 9. As with the full league table only United and Burnley have a goal difference worthy of the name. We've also only lost once to these teams, against Watford on the opening day with our other defeats coming against midtable (QPR, Coventry) or bottom third (Rotherham, Stoke) teams.

Norwich have changed manager recently but Wagner has his work cut out to turn this around; losing 7 of 11 so far against other top teams suggests they're not good enough for a promotion push.

View attachment 151157

Millwall will be interesting: they've beaten the only three top 10 sides to visit the Den: Boro (2-0), Watford (3-0) and West Brom (2-1) with the other 6 yet to visit although we obviously won fairly comfortably in the Cup earlier in the month. They have an awful record on the road against the top sides though, losing 6 of 7 so far.

There's still a long way to go. For what it's worth, the fixtures grid looks like this (home sides in the columns, away in the rows).

View attachment 151159

Interesting info.
The problem is that until we are mathematically promoted many, including me, will ignore sensible data and comment and always have a sense of (unrealistic) dread !!
When it does happen we will then fear not getting enough points to avoid being the worst ever Premiership club !!

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

Watford won't be a problem.
Of those 11, 7 have been at home and 4 away W1 D1 L2 and only scored twice.

 

[Ndiayewillalwaysloveyou]

We've got Boro, Watford and WBA at home so hopefully that stops them getting maximum points. Wins or draws do us good.

 

[Carlton Blade]

With all the noise about our performances and results, the belief in some corners that Watford (11 points back), Boro (12 points) and West Brom (13 points) are going to catch us and that run of games in February and March I thought I'd see how the top sides match up this season. Below the play offs the division is tight but I had to draw a line somewhere so I took the top 10, conveniently Sunderland in 10th is the last team capable of getting into the top 6 in the next round of games without needing a goal difference swing as well as results to go their way.

In that minileague, coincidentally, Watford are out in front with 20 points from 11 games. We are second with 18 from 9, Blackburn third with 18 from 11 and Burnley 4th with 16 from 9. As with the full league table only United and Burnley have a goal difference worthy of the name. We've also only lost once to these teams, against Watford on the opening day with our other defeats coming against midtable (QPR, Coventry) or bottom third (Rotherham, Stoke) teams.

Norwich have changed manager recently but Wagner has his work cut out to turn this around; losing 7 of 11 so far against other top teams suggests they're not good enough for a promotion push.

View attachment 151157

Millwall will be interesting: they've beaten the only three top 10 sides to visit the Den: Boro (2-0), Watford (3-0) and West Brom (2-1) with the other 6 yet to visit although we obviously won fairly comfortably in the Cup earlier in the month. They have an awful record on the road against the top sides though, losing 6 of 7 so far.

There's still a long way to go. For what it's worth, the fixtures grid looks like this (home sides in the columns, away in the rows).

View attachment 151159

I think the 'panic' is more due to watching our recent performances where we end games defending our box with a 1 goal lead and thinking we'll get punished by better teams.

I think our biggest issue this year is that we play up or down to the opposition. We spend a lot of games being reactive to what the opposition do so we get dragged into some dark places. I do think we'll be much more positive against good teams because they'll be trying to attack

 

[CaptainMorgans]

If we have 7/8 of our first team available and that group consists of Egan, Norwood, Ndiaye & McBurnie - we'll have no problems with that tough run of fixtures.
If we're down to half a first team, missing key players and have a bench full of kids (remember October?) that's where the issues may arise.

 

[bonobo]

I get a feeling that we often look better against stronger opposition, because we more naturally concede possession and there is space for our various skilfull forwards to run at the opposition. We don't really boss possession as we used to under Wilder, so it looks a lot scrappier against more middling opposition, who may also put more emphasise on set pieces.

 

[Houso]

If we have 7/8 of our first team available and that group consists of Egan, Norwood, Ndiaye & McBurnie - we'll have no problems with that tough run of fixtures.
If we're down to half a first team, missing key players and have a bench full of kids (remember October?) that's where the issues may arise.

Worried?

 

[wadblade]

The worry is that we have nearly half of our games against promotion contenders and wenare not really bosing games

in Hecky we trust

 

[steve26272]

I think the 'panic' is more due to watching our recent performances where we end games defending our box with a 1 goal lead and thinking we'll get punished by better teams.

it’s a fair observation

Would be interesting to know how much of this is tactical

1 goal up in last 10 mins and 2 schools of thought
Push forward and get a 2nd (tho this may leave us open)
Or
Whilst we may give them possession, we are solid enough to soak it up, we very rarely look like conceding a goal even tho we concede the ball

Sometimes it’s as tho we know with all 11 defending from the front we can keep them out

Having only conceded 24 in 27, there may be some validation of this

 

[steve26272]

Just looked
We have conceded 3 goal in the last 15 minutes

 

[CaptainMorgans]

Worried?

#worried.

 

[Frank the tank]

Just looked
We have conceded 3 goal in the last 15 minutes

That is worrying
I didn't even know we were playing