We need to talk about scoring goals

[Champagneblade]

McGoldrick has been decent to good most of the season.

The overall contribution of the others, factoring in goals, ranges from Mediocre but uneven (Sharp) through poor with occasional good bits (Burke) one good game in 8, the rest poor to awful (McBurnie) and uniformly awful (Mousset and Brewster).

Based on this I would start Didzy until he drops to the level of the others. Doesn’t matter who starts with him. Indeed, I might be tempted to stop the silly pretence Burke is a striker, stick him in midfield, and play 5 behind Didzy as a false 9. Worth a try.

What would your xi be for Saturday based on that. I know it's radical playing Burke, a winger, on the wing!

How would you like up? Cheers

 

[Revolution]

What would your xi be for Saturday based on that. I know it's radical playing Burke, a winger, on the wing!

How would you like up? Cheers

Didzy up top

Midfield would have Burke and Bogle wide

In the middle: Osborn and 2 of the 3 stooges.

Back 4: definitely Baldock, and the rest scares me!

Ramsdale in net

 

[BlairBlade]

When our manager is now talking about a back 8, that answers a few questions in terms of why we aren't scoring.

I think the lack of a 'proper' midfield this season is one of the biggest factors. It's obviously chopped and changed on almost game-by-game basis, which won't have helped. That said, it was obvious last season that we were not creating enough. We should have gone absolutely all out for Buendia.

....... would have been an idea to add Pukki as well. Just an idea, if you want to score goals, that is.

 

[BlairBlade]

Get a more potent, attack minded manager.

..... and a director of football.

 

[DronnieBlade]

the most damning statistic this season is shot conversion rates

last season we had 293 shots scoring 39 goals so a 13.1 per cent conversion rate

so far this season weve had more shots 301 already but only scored 15
for a paltry 5 per cent conversion rate

supplied by transfermkt

so we cant say its the supply, its totally the lack of finish

An inconvenient truth .

UTB

 

[guancheblade]

Invariably the team isn’t set up to score.
Quite why, I don’t understand. Possibly because someone’s approach is rather negative and does not expect us to win.
Whichever two up front we go with, I believe McGoldrick should be playing behind them.
That hardly ever happens. Should have been that ´front’ three at West Ham and Fulham - but obviously we didn’t go out intending to win (or score).

Is it too late to get Duffy back?

 

[Badger Blade]

Based on the stats, McGoldrick if he's fit has to start if we want to stand any sort of chance of scoring a goal. Otherwise it points back to the defence being on their game because as we've already seen so many times, if we concede once, that's pretty much it for us. Concede two, forget about it, coming back from 2 down at Chelsea seems like a lifetime away.
It all points back towards Wilder, his recruitment and his bloody "system".

 

[Balham]

the most damning statistic this season is shot conversion rates

last season we had 293 shots scoring 39 goals so a 13.1 per cent conversion rate

so far this season weve had more shots 301 already but only scored 15
for a paltry 5 per cent conversion rate

supplied by transfermkt

so we cant say its the supply, its totally the lack of finish

Transfermarkt is run by a network of German volunteers. They admit themselves that it's all very subjective... https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...ing-on-transfer-valuations-made-by-volunteers

Using understat.com to dig deeper shows that the underlying numbers aren't wildly different. We're talking about a drop from 9.4 shots per game to 8.8 shots/game. The number from open play is almost identical (7.0 this season, 6.8 last) but it's non-shot set pieces where we're struggling (ie indirect freekicks and corners) - down from 2.5 shots/game to 1.6.

If you look at xG (as good a measure of quality of chance as we have available) then you can see that the quality of the chances we're creating this season is the problem. We're going from 0.14 NPxG/shot to 0.10 in both open play and from corners. That might not seem a lot but what it means in practice is that we should expect a goal every 10 shots this season compared to one every 7 last. When we had such fine margins last season it's no surprise that the regression to the mean we've seen this season has hurt us so badly.

There is an issue with the lack of finish - same as last season - but the issue is the creation of good chances, particularly from open play.

On a player note, the NPxG/90 mins vs goals/90 for our strikers is as follows (again, taken from understat) and shows that we have an issue with all of our strikers except McGoldrick.

McGoldrick 0.29 xG/90 vs 0.31 goals/90 (Didzy is performing slightly better than expected)
McBurnie 0.27 vs 0.12 (McBurnie is considerably worse)
Sharp 0.22 vs 0.15 (Sharp is considerably worse)
Burke 0.21 vs 0.10 (Burke is considerably worse)
Brewster 0.20 vs 0.00 (yet to score... if he plays 90 against Liverpool and scores he'll move to 0.11)

Sheffield United xG stats for the 2020/2021 season | Understat.com

Sheffield United detailed xG stat for the 2020/2021 season. Data for players, different formations, situations, game states and etc.

understat.com

 

[Jon Bon II]

Isn’t this the same manager that masterminded over 180 points and loads of goals in the two promotion seasons
He has set us up to survive in the Premiership and was successful last season.
We will now be back in a lower league so I expect him to be attack minded.
Norwich took the opposite route and failed first time, so it will be interesting to see what they do if promoted for next season.

I'm all for sticking with Wilder, as I think he offers us the best possible chance of going straight back up - just like I believe Warnock would have if we hadn't got rid of him. Unfortunately, again like Warnock, I don't think Wilder will be able to cut it again in the Premier League. He just doesn't seem to have the nous that other top flight managers seem to have. Maybe that's down to his stubbornness, I don't know. I like Wilder - a lot - but I just don't think he'll ever be a successful top flight coach.

 

[Snowflake]

I'm all for sticking with Wilder, as I think he offers us the best possible chance of going straight back up - just like I believe Warnock would have if we hadn't got rid of him. Unfortunately, again like Warnock, I don't think Wilder will be able to cut it again in the Premier League. He just doesn't seem to have the nous that other top flight managers seem to have. Maybe that's down to his stubbornness, I don't know. I like Wilder - a lot - but I just don't think he'll ever be a successful top flight coach.

Maybe not, but I doubt United will ever have a “top flight coach”, unless that is a coach capable of surviving in the Premiership

 

[ancientblade]

Didzy up top

Midfield would have Burke and Bogle wide

In the middle: Osborn and 2 of the 3 stooges.

Back 4: definitely Baldock, and the rest scares me!

Ramsdale in net

4 - 5 - 1 then rev ? i agree with you but theres no way chris is going to ditch this 3 at the back but when we dont have either centre backs overlapping its pointless might as well get another 1 or 2 in to midfield at least that way we would see the ball now and again

 

[Weasel]

I'm all for sticking with Wilder, as I think he offers us the best possible chance of going straight back up - just like I believe Warnock would have if we hadn't got rid of him. Unfortunately, again like Warnock, I don't think Wilder will be able to cut it again in the Premier League. He just doesn't seem to have the nous that other top flight managers seem to have. Maybe that's down to his stubbornness, I don't know. I like Wilder - a lot - but I just don't think he'll ever be a successful top flight coach.

I think CW if he does manage to hang in until next season (which isn't a given if we continue to get humped for the remaining 13 games in the PL) will have thr perfect opportunity to go away for a few weeks (provided we are out of lock down anyway) and can have a think about what has gone badly wrong.

If hes got anything about him which I think he has plenty, then he will bring in the reinforcements that we need and get rid of the dead wood that we have accumulated. It's no good sticking with this defeat drunk side for a campaign in the Championship, we need to freshen up the squad and bring in young enthusiastic players who don't have this seasons stigma attached to them. We already have a basis of a very good championship squad though and I think CW will be a lot better manager for this experience provided that he LEARNS form this seasons shit show and isn't too stubborn to change systems and stops playing out of form favourites.

Mind you if Lundy is still here next season again CW can fkin do one as far as I'm concerned!

 

[ancientblade]

I think CW if he does manage to hang in until next season (which isn't a given if we continue to get humped for the remaining 13 games in the PL) will have thr perfect opportunity to go away for a few weeks (provided we are out of lock down anyway) and can have a think about what has gone badly wrong.

If hes got anything about him which I think he has plenty, then he will bring in the reinforcements that we need and get rid of the dead wood that we have accumulated. It's no good sticking with this defeat drunk side for a campaign in the Championship, we need to freshen up the squad and bring in young enthusiastic players who don't have this seasons stigma attached to them. We already have a basis of a very good championship squad though and I think CW will be a lot better manager for this experience provided that he LEARNS form this seasons shit show and isn't too stubborn to change systems and stops playing out of form favourites.

Mind you if Lundy is still here next season again CW can fkin do one as far as I'm concerned!

hope your right weasel but im not holding my breath on him changing systems hes too stubborn and i really dont know why hes persisted with lundstram hes offered us nothing since day one against wolves with that idiotic lunge on the john st touchline i would sooner have seen regan slater brought back for his role

 

[Champagneblade]

We didn’t even attempt to score against Fulham until we had about 25minutes left. Unsurprisingly we came up blank again, after spending 70% of the game uninterested in attacking.

that said even when we were good last season sharp and mcburnie was never a combination that worked so who knows what the thinking behind that was??

Our most recent game plan seems to be based on Rocky IV!

 

[The Crab]

Our most recent game plan seems to be based on Rocky IV!

There was more spark in Apollo Creed than there was in us in the Fulham game..............

 

[Champagneblade]

Finally someone else has noticed this problem that doesn't get talked about CW and fans like to deflect this by talking about key injuries but these aren't attacking players out! Egan, O'Connell and Basham aren't reliant on scoring and creating..

I think the other point which goes hand in hand with this is that the entire midfield hasn't scored a goal from open play in 23 matches.

 

[Varkanoid]

What would your xi be for Saturday based on that. I know it's radical playing Burke, a winger, on the wing!

How would you like up? Cheers

Sunday is the match 7.15pm.

 

[The Crab]

Sunday is the match 7.15pm.

Yes but if we kick off on Saturday we might nab a couple of goals before they start...........

 

[Varkanoid]

Yes but if we kick off on Saturday we might nab a couple of goals before they start...........

nawwwwwwwwwww

 

[BanderSerge]

This doesn't seem to come up anywhere near as often in interviews as it should do, for some reason. No specific agenda to this post, just laying out what the stats say for a discussion point.

Cup form aside, which has been against lower league opposition plus Burnley 2nd XI vs our 2nd XI this is how we've done in front of goal:

13/25 matches we have failed to score at all
9 matches we have scored 1 goal.
3 matches we have scored 2 goals.
We have 15 from 25 matches. GD-26.

Last season:
12/38 matches we failed to score at all.
17/38 matches we scored 1 goal.
5/38 matches we scored 2 goals.
4/38 matches we scored 3 goals.
We had 39 from 38 matches. GD0.

So we've already failed to score in more matches than the whole of last season and rather worryingly from scoring in 68% of matches last season we have scored in 20% fewer games i.e. 48%. Less than half.

We hear a lot of talk about not opening up and yes it isn't fun to see your team take a doing but I'm more concerned about goal scoring.

If we're going to be losing most matches then I'd rather we go down somewhat cavalier if possible 3-2, 3-1 than a series of meagre 1-0s.

The reason why is simple. We will have defenders who will be back next season and will be against weaker attacks. We can be confident our defence will be stronger than it is right now.

However goalscoring is a habit. It isn't like some sort of tap we can just turn on in August in the Championship.

Of the 12 games where we have scored, these have been the forward pairings:
McGoldrick/Burke 4
McGoldrick/Sharp 2
McGoldrick/Brewster 2
McGoldrick/McBurnie 1
McBurnie/Burke 1
McBurnie/Brewster 1

On balance, here are the partnerships in the games we failed to score:
McBurnie/Sharp 3
McGoldrick/Burke 2
McBurnie/Brewster 1
McBurnie/Burke 1
McGoldrick/McBurnie 1
McGoldrick/Brewster 1
McGoldrick/Mousset 1
McGoldrick/Mousset/Brewster 1
Burke/Brewster 1
McGoldrick/Sharp 1

So, McGoldrick/Burke has resulted in goals in 5/7 matches, followed by McGoldrick/Sharp and McGoldrick/Brewster in 2/3 though in the case of the latter it was also a dud when Mousset was added v Burnley for a trio.

By far the most unsuccessful partnership has been McBurnie/Sharp, tried on 3 occasions and failed to produce on all 3.

As individuals:
McGoldrick 16 starts 9 produced goals (56%)
Burke 10 starts 6 produced goals (60%)
Brewster 6 starts 3 produced goals (50%)
Sharp 6 starts 2 produced goals (33%)
McBurnie 9 starts 3 produced goals (33%)

So a few options are available. Do we go with a more attacking line up? 3-4-3, 3-4-1-2, 4-3-3 for instance?

Do we try pairings that haven't been given much of a go?

The McBurnie/Brewster pairing some have spoken of for next season has a 1 in 2 goals production but hardly nay minutes together. Likewise McBurnie/Burke similarly. We've also never tried the pace and unpredictability of Burke alongside Sharp.

One thing is for sure in my opinion is that goalscoring should be top of the agenda and be getting far more focus as a problem to solve. We should be acknowledging those pairings that simply don't work and either experimenting with new ones or reenforcing those that did work.

What are your thoughts on how to get more potency out of the team?

I pulled this up last season when people were saying the same thing then. Joelinton and Haller cost Newcastle and Wet Spam £35 & £40m each. They are nothing but mediocre. That is the premier league going rate for goals. We came up on the back of 6 seasons in the 3rd division, and 2 seasons in the championship on a £6.4m net spend. For us to blow £75m plus a minimum £100,000 a week in wages, was just never, ever going to happen

 

[BlairBlade]

Is it too late to get Duffy back?

Does anyone know where he is?

 

[BlairBlade]

I think CW if he does manage to hang in until next season (which isn't a given if we continue to get humped for the remaining 13 games in the PL) will have thr perfect opportunity to go away for a few weeks (provided we are out of lock down anyway) and can have a think about what has gone badly wrong.

If hes got anything about him which I think he has plenty, then he will bring in the reinforcements that we need and get rid of the dead wood that we have accumulated. It's no good sticking with this defeat drunk side for a campaign in the Championship, we need to freshen up the squad and bring in young enthusiastic players who don't have this seasons stigma attached to them. We already have a basis of a very good championship squad though and I think CW will be a lot better manager for this experience provided that he LEARNS form this seasons shit show and isn't too stubborn to change systems and stops playing out of form favourites.

Mind you if Lundy is still here next season again CW can fkin do one as far as I'm concerned!

I agree with what you have said, the Lundstram line included, and although I think it would be a crying shame, I think JBII is probably right as well.
Let us hope we are given something to cheer about during the rest of this season, although it won't be for staying up.
Then next season with a few additions, most likely paid for in receipts from the sale of Berge (and another one or two) and a good clear out - who knows?

 

[DronnieBlade]

Transfermarkt is run by a network of German volunteers. They admit themselves that it's all very subjective... https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...ing-on-transfer-valuations-made-by-volunteers

Using understat.com to dig deeper shows that the underlying numbers aren't wildly different. We're talking about a drop from 9.4 shots per game to 8.8 shots/game. The number from open play is almost identical (7.0 this season, 6.8 last) but it's non-shot set pieces where we're struggling (ie indirect freekicks and corners) - down from 2.5 shots/game to 1.6.

If you look at xG (as good a measure of quality of chance as we have available) then you can see that the quality of the chances we're creating this season is the problem. We're going from 0.14 NPxG/shot to 0.10 in both open play and from corners. That might not seem a lot but what it means in practice is that we should expect a goal every 10 shots this season compared to one every 7 last. When we had such fine margins last season it's no surprise that the regression to the mean we've seen this season has hurt us so badly.

There is an issue with the lack of finish - same as last season - but the issue is the creation of good chances, particularly from open play.

On a player note, the NPxG/90 mins vs goals/90 for our strikers is as follows (again, taken from understat) and shows that we have an issue with all of our strikers except McGoldrick.

McGoldrick 0.29 xG/90 vs 0.31 goals/90 (Didzy is performing slightly better than expected)
McBurnie 0.27 vs 0.12 (McBurnie is considerably worse)
Sharp 0.22 vs 0.15 (Sharp is considerably worse)
Burke 0.21 vs 0.10 (Burke is considerably worse)
Brewster 0.20 vs 0.00 (yet to score... if he plays 90 against Liverpool and scores he'll move to 0.11)

Sheffield United xG stats for the 2020/2021 season | Understat.com

Sheffield United detailed xG stat for the 2020/2021 season. Data for players, different formations, situations, game states and etc.

understat.com

So Dids and Bill then.

What a shame it’s taken a season and a half to work that out .

(Better as a pairing than any other combination IMHO to add insult to injury) !!

UTB

 

[MalmoBlade]

I think once we replace Duffy we'll be alright...

Absolutely mate, but please don't hold your breath

 

[MalmoBlade]

The problem is Aguero and Rashford would struggle to score in this side and under this system.

Trying to decide on which pairing to use up top in this system is like prioritising on which 4 people to run the tyre changes in the F1 pit lane for the Morris Minors team. Unless you sort the car out, it doesn't matter how fast the tyres are changed.

 

[blade too long]

All such stats are subjective. Some shots at goal are more like defensive pass backs . I take all such stats as very rough guides.

 

[IdLiketoRogerMoore]

im afraid lundstram norwood and fleck just arnt good enough

Mate, you've just summed it this season in one sentence.

No need for multiple threads about what's gone wrong, or formations, or Tufty is now shite, second season syndrome blah blah blah.

Your sentence says it all.

 

[Balham]

So Dids and Bill then.

What a shame it’s taken a season and a half to work that out .

(Better as a pairing than any other combination IMHO to add insult to injury) !!

UTB

The better bet is that McBurnie will revert to the mean. The stats on his all round game are superior to Sharp's, particularly if you take out the adverse impact of our tactics on his passing.

 

[DronnieBlade]

The better bet is that McBurnie will revert to the mean. The stats on his all round game are superior to Sharp's, particularly if you take out the adverse impact of our tactics on his passing.

The better bet, according to YOUR research is 0.12 / 0.27 = (44%)

rather than

0.15 / 0.22 = (68%).

Righdo .

Don’t gamble would be my advice .

UTB.

 

[DronnieBlade]

The better bet is that McBurnie will revert to the mean. The stats on his all round game are superior to Sharp's, particularly if you take out the adverse impact of our tactics on his passing.

Big Chance Missed - Premier League 2020/2021

Most Big Chance Missed in Premier League 2020/2021. View the list of top Big Chance Missed and other players stats.

www.kickest.it

Goal/Min - Premier League 2020/2021

Most Goal/Min in Premier League 2020/2021. View the list of top Goal/Min and other players stats.

www.kickest.it

Shot Conv. Rate - Premier League 2020/2021

Most Shot Conv. Rate in Premier League 2020/2021. View the list of top Shot Conv. Rate and other players stats.

www.kickest.it

Accurate Passes % - Premier League 2020/2021

Most Accurate Passes % in Premier League 2020/2021. View the list of top Accurate Passes % and other players stats.

www.kickest.it

Better bet ?

UTB