Febuary: fatal or fabulous

[Ollessendro]

Other than signings, with the absence of a match this weekend there is not a lot to talk about. The Doyle transfer has been debated to death and other than a few exceptions there are few thought provoking posts. Of course we can't get away from Lenners talk of League One, Micalijo's criticisms of the baord, Pinchy's ramblings about elpiton and the maestro and general negativity about everything from crap signings to Radio Sheffield and of course the imminent doomsday. However with the realistic assumption that the Blades may be in the bottom 3 at the start of February I think it is important to look ahead.

Palace are at home on Saturday and if they pick up 3 points then United will be in the bottom 3. Unlikely (that they will beat Norwich) or so what? My point is that February will be a key month for us. I genuinly think it could make or break our season. A good February could get us going and bound us to safety, but a poor February and we are in big trouble. With some very winnable games it is important that we get our act together quickly.

The fixture list for February looks like this:

1/2 Leicester (H)***
5/2 Ipswich (A) **
12/2 Milwall (H) *
15/2 Reading (H) **
19/2 Palace (A) *
22/2 Scunthorpe (A) *
26/2 Derby (H) **

* Must win
** Should win
*** bonus if we win

That's 7 games in (just over) 4 weeks of which 6 are very winnable and 3 are must win games. We simply cannot afford to drop points to Palace and Scunthorpe and must beat teams like Milwall at home. Equally we should expect to be getting results against Reading and Derby at home.

People are saying that we are doomed now and I think it is ridicolous. I do think, however, that we will have a very good idea of whether we are going down by the end of February. I'll get the 'knockers' saying that we are doomed and will not win until Scunthorpe and the clappers saying that we can still turn it around in March or April, but realistically February is a massive month for us.

After March things will get tough. There are winnable games (Barnsley, Preston and Bristol) but there are some equally tough games againt Swansea (away), Cardiff (h), QPR (a) and Forrest (h) as well as Pompey, Watford and Reading (all away).

I do not think we are doomed just yet. A lot will depend on Adams ability to turn things around (which I have some faith in) and Freedman and Ferguson's abilities to turn their clubs round. I personally think that they are marginally worse than us (maybe with Bristol being in there too) but think it will be close. We are certainly one of the 6 worst sides in the division. By the start of February deadline day will have passed and Adams will have his squad for the rest of the season. He does not have a lot of time to get the team playing, gelling and winning.

 

[MunXy]

olle, i myself in another thread have said all febs fixtures are winnable but id be happy with 15 of the 21 points, any less than 15 would be bad tho not disasterous.
IF we get 21 points that would leave us around 5 points from safety i believe, so get behind the team and micky, onwards and upwards.

MunXy

 

[Worksop II]

id be happy with 15 of the 21 points

Now .... this is serious Clapping, is the Sun Shining ?

and yes its copied and pasted for later use

 

[MunXy]

yeh im optimistic and why shouldnt i be?
we aren't a massive club, we admittedly aren't playing teams of the 9 man yeovil calibre, but what we do have is...erm..well we have...err...well we have a good keeper..not too bad keeper, a solid back four...kinda, a little, a strong midfield..maybe not but its fast...compared to erm anyway we have a strike force that give other defences nightmares...or is that wet dreams.
ok ok can someone give me the number for the samritans please

MunXy

 

[ListerBlade]

my predictions for those fixtures are:

1/2 Leicester (H)*** Lose
5/2 Ipswich (A) ** Draw
12/2 Milwall (H) * Win
15/2 Reading (H) ** Lose
19/2 Palace (A) * Win
22/2 Scunthorpe (A) * Win
26/2 Derby (H) ** Win

predictions are mainly hopes. going to be an interesting month!!

 

[Kev Gee]

Out of that i would be happy with 12 points.

1/2 Leicester (H)*** Lose
5/2 Ipswich (A) ** lose
12/2 Milwall (H) * win
15/2 Reading (H) ** Lose
19/2 Palace (A) * Win
22/2 Scunthorpe (A) * Win
26/2 Derby (H) ** Win

 

[davidpinder]

If we are starting predictions mine for those fixtures are:

1/2 Leicester (H) win
5/2 Ipswich (A) lose
12/2 Milwall (H) Win
15/2 Reading (H) win
19/2 Palace (A) draw
22/2 Scunthorpe (A) draw
26/2 Derby (H) Win

I'd be more than happy with that.

 

[JohnDenver]

With regard to Brizzle, Olle, their keeper compared to ours gives them a big edge.

 

[Worksop II]

Looks to me like Aliens are selecting their takeover victims from this Forum

And they are from the Planet Crackpot

 

[MunXy]

is it me or is there a wave of optimism sweeping the forum and indeed BDTBL?
some people actually believing we can win games.
/me looks out the window for the "Four Horsemen" for it has to be the end of the world

MunXy

 

[Worksop II]

me looks out the window for the "Four Horsemen" for it has to be the end of the world

I have always rated Svenis, and when his Leicester side come next week we will get a good hiding, with Kyle Naughton dipping his bread in, as all ex -players do at the Lane.

We havn't exactly had our "New Manager Bump", and the back four of Leicester will be on Horseback

 

[JohnDenver]

I have always rated Svenis, and when his Leicester side come next week we will get a good hiding, with Kyle Naughton dipping his bread in, as all ex -players do at the Lane.

We havn't exactly had our "New Manager Bump", and the back four of Leicester will be on Horseback

Leicester are good because they have cash. Wonder how Sven would do with our chumps?

As for our new manager bump, that's more easily done when the previous bloke had lost the support of the players. I really don't think that ever happened here.

 

[alcoblade]

But we have had a bump. We've gone from completely shite to shite, but not totally.



UTB

 

[ListerBlade]

what are the chances of leicester being up the creek with no chance of a paddle if they don't go up next season? Leicester mate says that they were lucky to get Sven on a year rolling contract.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

I think three days in feb could all but seal our fate?

19/2 Palace (A)
22/2 Scunthorpe (A)

 

[Ollessendro]

my predictions for those fixtures are:

1/2 Leicester (H)*** Lose
5/2 Ipswich (A) ** Draw
12/2 Milwall (H) * Win
15/2 Reading (H) ** Lose
19/2 Palace (A) * Win
22/2 Scunthorpe (A) * Win
26/2 Derby (H) ** Win

predictions are mainly hopes. going to be an interesting month!!

I'd be over the moon with that. I think we need to get at the absolute least 10 points, but probably somewhere between 12 and 15 to be a good month. Anything more than 15 would be a massive month. Also (as Grumpy points out below - in a way) tha games against teasm around us are crucial. It will be no use beating Derby, Reading and Leicester if we lose to Scunny, Palace and Milwall. Those last 3 games mentioned we simply and utterly cannot lose! In fact we have to be picking up at least 8 points from those games.

With regard to Brizzle, Olle, their keeper compared to ours gives them a big edge.

True JD, but they are poor. I expect them to be in the bottom 6 at the end of the year. I'd expect us to be taking 3 points off them when they come to the Lane. but you are right an experienced, qaulity keeper can make a massive difference. Look at SS: he won us a point at Coventry (which we did not deserve) but then cost us all 3 points against Norwich. Dodgy keeping (particularly on crosses and set pieces - like Simmo showed against Norwich and in other games) unsettles the back 4, puts pressure on them and leads to more mistakes. It was the one criticism that I had of Kenny (but boy do we miss him now!!?).

I think three days in feb could all but seal our fate?

19/2 Palace (A)
22/2 Scunthorpe (A)

Very true Grumps. We should be taking maximum points form both teams. Depending on other results, I'd maybe take a draw at Palace and win at Scunny. Scunny are terrible and will certainly go down (imo) however we have an awful record against them since they got promoted. If we lose to both then I think it could seal our fate.

 

[Micalijo]

We're gonna stay up, but Ollie you do know that Ferguson has been sacked and replaced by Brown?

 

[Ollessendro]

We're gonna stay up, but Ollie you do know that Ferguson has been sacked and replaced by Brown?

Good point. That's who I meant. Same point applies. Do Freedman and Brown (and possibly even Jewell - though he has a much stronger squad to work with) have the ability to turn it around. I've been saying all season that I think there are definately 3 worst teams than us, but I think it is going to be tight.

 

[Micalijo]

Good point. That's who I meant. Same point applies. Do Freedman and Brown (and possibly even Jewell - though he has a much stronger squad to work with) have the ability to turn it around. I've been saying all season that I think there are definately 3 worst teams than us, but I think it is going to be tight.

I think Scunny will finish bottom, by a fair distance. Palace could get to 50 points which could leave us with a minor problem later on. PNE obviously in deep, deep trouble and doubt Brown or anyone could save them.

Donny might struggle to get to 50 points. Sean has lost heart at the moment, which all people do when they set their heart on a big job and circumstances beyond their control deny them.

 

[SotonBlade]

I can't see us being out of the bottom 5 by the end of the season, and as most have agreed with on here, February is the biggest month of our season! It's going to be squeaky bum time from now until the last day imho

 

[Revolution]

I can't see us being out of the bottom 5 by the end of the season

Neither can I, and that's a problem, as United don't do staying up by the skin of their teeth very well historically.

Since the War, United have finished in the bottom 5 of a league 12 times - and been relegated 9 times out of 12.

The exceptions:

1954 - finished 20th out of 22 in Div 1, 3 points off the drop (only 2 for a win then)
1965 - finished 19th out of 22 in Div 1, 5 points off the drop (again, 2 for a win, and we were never in danger of relegation - that was our lowest finish all year)
1985 - finished 18th out of 22, 7 points off the drop (3 for a win). Won none of our last 8 matches but survived due to everyone below us being really terrible.

 

[Selly]

6 points or less and we will be in the shit big time.

7-10 points and we'll probably be in a similar situation as now.

11-15 points and we will be starting to pull away, and a couple more wins will probably see us safe.

16+ and we can look to get safe ASAP and look onto next season.

21 points - laste push for the play-offs???

 

[Ollessendro]

I think Scunny will finish bottom, by a fair distance.

I also think Scunny are the worst team in the league. I put £300 on them to go down (at 3/1) before the season started. Beers will be on me in May .... especially if we stay up!

Palace could get to 50 points which could leave us with a minor problem later on. PNE obviously in deep, deep trouble and doubt Brown or anyone could save them.

The Palace game on the 19th is massive. I'll be going to that one. I'm excited about it and dreading it at the same time!

Donny might struggle to get to 50 points. Sean has lost heart at the moment, which all people do when they set their heart on a big job and circumstances beyond their control deny them.

Ignoring your dig at the board, I just can't see it. I think Donny are just having a blip. I think they will finish mid table, probably top half. I actually think that Barnsley, Bristol (as mentioned before), Hull (although Bullard makes a big difference) and Derby are only marginally better than us and could be dragged in. I think Boro, Ipswich, Donny (as stated above) and Pompey are all significantly better than us and can't see them being involcved in a relegation scrap.

 

[ListerBlade]

21 points - laste push for the play-offs??? [/QUOTE]

i'll keep everything firmly crossed!!

 

[norfolkblade]

February is make or break month for us, a poor month i.e. less than 10 points, and I think we will be staring down the barrel big time!

 

[Sothall_Blade]

We simply cannot afford to drop points to Palace and Scunthorpe and must beat teams like Milwall at home. Equally we should expect to be getting results against Reading and Derby at home.

I would say we can't afford to lose to Palace or Scunthorpe but away draws against our two major relegation rivals would be good results. Of the home games, everybody seems to be classing Millwall as the "easy" one but they're above Leicester and Derby in the table and only just below Reading. So all four fixtures are equally winnable (or loseable). I think 9 points at home and 3 away draws is a realistic target which would leave us needing around 11 points from the last 12 matches. It would also deprive our main rivals of the home win "six pointer" they'll be looking for.

 

[super_pig]

on present form i can't see us beating any of them..

 

[Ollessendro]

I would say we can't afford to lose to Palace or Scunthorpe but away draws against our two major relegation rivals would be good results. Of the home games, everybody seems to be classing Millwall as the "easy" one but they're above Leicester and Derby in the table and only just below Reading. So all four fixtures are equally winnable (or loseable). I think 9 points at home and 3 away draws is a realistic target which would leave us needing around 11 points from the last 12 matches. It would also deprive our main rivals of the home win "six pointer" they'll be looking for.

Scunthorpe are the worst side in the league and I expect us to be beating them. Simple. Milwall at home will not be easy, but they are a poor side. We beat them at the New Den and we should take maximum points. they might be in an inflated position, but they are newly promoted and are not a good side. The game against Reading is winnable, but they seemed to have been playing quite well recently. Leicester are playing very well (in stark contrast to us) and hence that is why I said what I did.

 

[Sothall_Blade]

Scunthorpe are the worst side in the league and I expect us to be beating them. Simple. Milwall at home will not be easy, but they are a poor side. We beat them at the New Den and we should take maximum points. they might be in an inflated position, but they are newly promoted and are not a good side. The game against Reading is winnable, but they seemed to have been playing quite well recently. Leicester are playing very well (in stark contrast to us) and hence that is why I said what I did.

Fair enough but Millwall, Reading and Leicester have identical records over the last six matches P6 W3 D2 L1 Pts 11:-

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2010-2011/form-table/full

There is no such thing as an inflated position after 27 matches. Teams are where they deserve to be.

 

[Ollessendro]

Fair enough but Millwall, Reading and Leicester have identical records over the last six matches P6 W3 D2 L1 Pts 11:-

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2010-2011/form-table/full.

Ok, point taken. But Milwall are a poor side. Leicester have a decent squad and their league position is not reflective due to Sven only taking over in the Autumn.

There is no such thing as an inflated position after 27 matches. Teams are where they deserve to be.

Yes there. Are you one of these people who believes that a football team gets exaclty what they deserved at the end of 90 minutes? (simple yes or no will suffice).