xBW

[TheFlashingBlade]

Which, for the avoidance of doubt, stands for “Expected Bedwetting”. The one table we’re riding pretty high in.

OK, so I know some of you don’t ‘do’ xG, think that xGA is garbage, and that xPTS are about as much use as Dean Hammond away at Anfield against a full strength Liverpool, but (arguably) they help to give a sense of perspective and to identify patterns that the naked eye of the average football fan simply can't, or won’t, see.

So what do xPTS say about our season so far? Are we the creatively-bereft, no hoper, dead certs for relegation that many in this forum would have us believe?

Errr, no actually. There we are in the top ten, only one place behind where we finished in our wonderful, amazing, miracle season.

And, please bear in mind*, xPTS doesn’t take into account three pretty well universally accepted, potentially result-changing, incorrect refereeing decisions - Egan’s wrong red card after 12 minutes at Villa; the ungiven foul on Sander that lead to Leeds’ winner; and David Luiz’s non-red card after 5 minutes at Arsenal. If any, or all of those, had been given then we’d very probably be looking even prettier in both the xPTS, and more importantly, the actual table.

And yes, I know that’s the only table that matters. Actually, I don’t. I know that the only table that matters is the real one AT THE END OF THE SEASON. And (arguably), the xPTS table gives a better indication of how that’s likely to look than the real table after 5 games.

Yes, I know things aren’t great at the moment and we could be doing many things much, much better, but equally I know that things aren’t quite bad enough to justify all the wrist-slitting and bedwetting. All Im suggesting is that we maintain a little perspective in a sport of fine margins and don't give up on the players and management that have given us so much over the past for years. That's all.

(* Equally, bear in mind that many of the teams below us have games in hand.)

 

[lazyfecklessblade]

Got your bed wetting pun in before the inevitable thread titled “should we change the bed sheets?”. Touché.

I like it, watching us on the box I haven’t thought we look as bad as results might allude, nice to see something that backs that up!

Did you have to cherry pick through a few models to find is that had us top half, or is that really where everyone’s numbers have us?

 

[CaptainMorgans]

Which, for the avoidance of doubt, stands for “Expected Bedwetting”. The one table we’re riding pretty high in.

OK, so I know some of you don’t ‘do’ xG, think that xGA is garbage, and that xPTS are about as much use as Dean Hammond away at Anfield against a full strength Liverpool, but (arguably) they help to give a sense of perspective and to identify patterns that the naked eye of the average football fan simply can't, or won’t, see.

So what do xPTS say about our season so far? Are we the creatively-bereft, no hoper, dead certs for relegation that many in this forum would have us believe?

Errr, no actually. There we are in the top ten, only one place behind where we finished in our wonderful, amazing, miracle season.

And, please bear in mind*, xPTS doesn’t take into account three pretty well universally accepted, potentially result-changing, incorrect refereeing decisions - Egan’s wrong red card after 12 minutes at Villa; the ungiven foul on Sander that lead to Leeds’ winner; and David Luiz’s non-red card after 5 minutes at Arsenal. If any, or all of those, had been given then we’d very probably be looking even prettier in both the xPTS, and more importantly, the actual table.

And yes, I know that’s the only table that matters. Actually, I don’t. I know that the only table that matters is the real one AT THE END OF THE SEASON. And (arguably), the xPTS table gives a better indication of how that’s likely to look than the real table after 5 games.

Yes, I know things aren’t great at the moment and we could be doing many things much, much better, but equally I know that things aren’t quite bad View attachment 95325enough to justify all the wrist-slitting and bedwetting. All Im suggesting is that we maintain a little perspective in a sport of fine margins and don't give up on the players and management that have given us so much over the past for years. That's all.

(* Equally, bear in mind that many of the teams below us have games in hand.)

Those stats just tell me what I can already see.

We're in games, but not good enough at either end of the pitch to pick up points.

 

[Deadbat]

Too much is made of stats. Everyone kept telling me Newcastle could not possibly stay away from the bottom last year as there XGPG are whatever it for and against did not match up with the points. They finished well clear. This year it is the same. They are middle of the league and doing fine again.

What matters is putting in the net at one end and keeping it out at the other - we are not doing either very welll.

 

[robbiez666]

Stats are great aren't they. Like last season when all the stats said we'd be relegated.

We've played Leeds, Villa and Fulham, 3 games we'd expect to get something from, and got 1 point.

Given the post lockdown form and the start to this season, I think having concerns is justified.

 

[PeterNdlovu081]

OK, so I know some of you don’t ‘do’ xG, think that xGA is garbage, and that xPTS are about as much use as Dean Hammond away at Anfield against a full strength Liverpool

He did pretty well actually.

 

[Houston_Blade]

All it shows is that we are not good enough at converting chances. Nothing from today convinces me that it will improve apart from if chances stop falling to players that can’t finish.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

There is only one stat that matters and that's the league table.

 

[Wapping Blade]

Which, for the avoidance of doubt, stands for “Expected Bedwetting”. The one table we’re riding pretty high in.

OK, so I know some of you don’t ‘do’ xG, think that xGA is garbage, and that xPTS are about as much use as Dean Hammond away at Anfield against a full strength Liverpool, but (arguably) they help to give a sense of perspective and to identify patterns that the naked eye of the average football fan simply can't, or won’t, see.

So what do xPTS say about our season so far? Are we the creatively-bereft, no hoper, dead certs for relegation that many in this forum would have us believe?

Errr, no actually. There we are in the top ten, only one place behind where we finished in our wonderful, amazing, miracle season.

And, please bear in mind*, xPTS doesn’t take into account three pretty well universally accepted, potentially result-changing, incorrect refereeing decisions - Egan’s wrong red card after 12 minutes at Villa; the ungiven foul on Sander that lead to Leeds’ winner; and David Luiz’s non-red card after 5 minutes at Arsenal. If any, or all of those, had been given then we’d very probably be looking even prettier in both the xPTS, and more importantly, the actual table.

And yes, I know that’s the only table that matters. Actually, I don’t. I know that the only table that matters is the real one AT THE END OF THE SEASON. And (arguably), the xPTS table gives a better indication of how that’s likely to look than the real table after 5 games.

Yes, I know things aren’t great at the moment and we could be doing many things much, much better, but equally I know that things aren’t quite bad View attachment 95325enough to justify all the wrist-slitting and bedwetting. All Im suggesting is that we maintain a little perspective in a sport of fine margins and don't give up on the players and management that have given us so much over the past for years. That's all.

(* Equally, bear in mind that many of the teams below us have games in hand.)

I am so nicking xBW!

 

[LoughboroBlade]

Stats are great aren't they. Like last season when all the stats said we'd be relegated.

When did the stats last season say we’d be relegated?

 

[mattbianco1]

Which, for the avoidance of doubt, stands for “Expected Bedwetting”. The one table we’re riding pretty high in.

OK, so I know some of you don’t ‘do’ xG, think that xGA is garbage, and that xPTS are about as much use as Dean Hammond away at Anfield against a full strength Liverpool, but (arguably) they help to give a sense of perspective and to identify patterns that the naked eye of the average football fan simply can't, or won’t, see.

So what do xPTS say about our season so far? Are we the creatively-bereft, no hoper, dead certs for relegation that many in this forum would have us believe?

Errr, no actually. There we are in the top ten, only one place behind where we finished in our wonderful, amazing, miracle season.

And, please bear in mind*, xPTS doesn’t take into account three pretty well universally accepted, potentially result-changing, incorrect refereeing decisions - Egan’s wrong red card after 12 minutes at Villa; the ungiven foul on Sander that lead to Leeds’ winner; and David Luiz’s non-red card after 5 minutes at Arsenal. If any, or all of those, had been given then we’d very probably be looking even prettier in both the xPTS, and more importantly, the actual table.

And yes, I know that’s the only table that matters. Actually, I don’t. I know that the only table that matters is the real one AT THE END OF THE SEASON. And (arguably), the xPTS table gives a better indication of how that’s likely to look than the real table after 5 games.

Yes, I know things aren’t great at the moment and we could be doing many things much, much better, but equally I know that things aren’t quite bad View attachment 95325enough to justify all the wrist-slitting and bedwetting. All Im suggesting is that we maintain a little perspective in a sport of fine margins and don't give up on the players and management that have given us so much over the past for years. That's all.

(* Equally, bear in mind that many of the teams below us have games in hand.)

This proves that we are under performing in front of goal. If we can start taking our chances, we will be fine... Big "IF"

 

[PokerBlade]

There is only one stat that matters and that's the league table.

Yes, let's just look at the league table and improve the points total.

As a small suggestion though, maybe we could do that by analysing the actual performances on the pitch to figure out what and how to improve? It's worth a go.

 

[mattbianco1]

Also shows that Villa, Newcastle and Palace are over performing - as thought

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Yes, let's just look at the league table and improve the points total.

As a small suggestion though, maybe we could do that by analysing the actual performances on the pitch to figure out what and how to improve? It's worth a go.

Isn't it obvious?

 

[CaptainMorgans]

This proves that we are under performing in front of goal. If we can start taking our chances, we will be fine... Big "IF"

The stats certainly support the signing of a striker (which we did), rather than a creator (which to my eye was what we needed more).

A lot of weight rests on Brewster's shoulders. We've seen what the rest can do & we know it's not enough.
If he comes good, we're in business.
If he fails... then I hope Mousset is back fast & better than ever. But I doubt both.

 

[PokerBlade]

Isn't it obvious?

Not from looking at the league table alone, no.

 

[LS16Blade]

We're almost always 'in games' because the endeavour and attitude of our players is absolutely beyond question.

The problem is that in order to actually win games, as Wilder himself says, we need at least 8 or 9 of the team to perform to their best on a given day. We can not win matches unless pretty much the whole team perform at the top of their game.

At the moment we are competing but at least 6 or 7 are struggling to get to the levels they reached last season. For whatever reason the zip, intensity and confidence isn't there. And we need more or less everyone on song to get a result.

I would say that at the moment we may be the only side in the division that does not have a single player with the 'x-factor'; the player(s) that can win a game even when his team has played poorly. At a push, perhaps Brighton are another who rely on the whole team performing rather than individual brilliance, albeit they do have Maupay who may be good for 15 goals. Hopefully Brewster will be our man but it's a lot to ask of the young lad.

We are desperately hoping that the likes of Palace will struggle but I can't see that being our salvation. Having seen their games so far, in 4 games they have been absolutely dire - far worse than us. Yet they have players like Zaha, Eze, Ayew and Townsend who can win points even when the team has done nothing more than camp in its own penalty-area for 85 minutes. Moreover, in the 1 in 5 games when they do click, they can beat anyone because they have pace, power and directness that terrifies defences - hence their win at Old Trafford which is the sort of result Palace have specialised in against the top sides over the years. You just can't see us ever pulling off that sort of result.

West Ham can do the same with the likes of Antonio; Newcastle with Saint-Maximin and Wilson; Southampton with Ings and any number of others and so on. Players who can win matches or points - even against the elite sides - when the team has done little to earn it.

Fulham and WBA look short of the standard albeit that even they have the likes of Lookman and Pareira in their ranks who can produce something extraordinary. Beyond those 2 teams though, the outlook is poor if we can't find the standards right across the team, that we had last season. We won't get bounced, like all of these 'spike teams' seem to every now and again, but nor will we win many games.