It's fucking shit

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There are many reasons why you can't compare these figures with those of previous outbreaks, or extrapolate figures from one health care system to another. There are significant gaps in those figures, as conceded by those who have come up with them. Interesting article comparing the previous flu outbreak with the current COVID 19 one here.

www.reuters.com

Partly false claim: COVID-19 and H1N1 numbers compared; the public was “totally chill” during the H1N1 pandemic of 2009-2010 while COVID-19 is causing “mass hysteria”

Iterations of a post make the claims that under President Donald Trump, there have been 1,329 U.S. cases of COVID-19 and 38 deaths, provoking “mass hysteria” while under President Barack Obama there were 60.8 million U.S. cases of H1N1 and 12,469 deaths, with a “totally...
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

The bottom line is, they don't really know, no one really knows, how serious this is going to get, all we know is, it's serious.

Certainly our response to it is on a scale never seen before. The figures, however accurate or inaccurate, are at least serving to justify the reasons for a social lock down, which in turn may be the best way of changing behaviour in the short term and reducing the number of lives affected.

It's boring as hell of course, but we shouldn't be selfish about it and we should be thinking that if we all conform then this nightmare will be over quicker.
 



it appears this virus is in 99 per cent of the fatalities is just speeding up the deaths of the very old and ill
most have really serious illnesses or are just suffering the cumulative effects that being over 80 brings
A respiratory virus that preys on extremely vulnerable people.
apparently old people with cancer diabetes and weight problems are the highest fatalities
In actual fatality numbers there has been far worse viruses , that attack young and old

once we build up an immunity in a lot of our society it will wane
 
blade too long said:
it appears this virus is in 99 per cent of the fatalities is just speeding up the deaths of the very old and ill
most have really serious illnesses or are just suffering the cumulative effects that being over 80 brings
A respiratory virus that preys on extremely vulnerable people.
apparently old people with cancer diabetes and weight problems are the highest fatalities
In actual fatality numbers there has been far worse viruses , that attack young and old

once we build up an immunity in a lot of our society it will wane
Click to expand...
Yes - but what about fatalities caused by the NHS overloading?
 
A Storm of Blades said:
Sorry that’s not quite right. Whilst I see your point, it’s akin to saying a percentage of those that are killed in a terror attack would have died by some other means anyway, therefore we should absorb the numbers. UCL have professors that have dedicated their careers to this expertise, and at least 2 pandemic preparedness think-tanks worked on the modelling, and they fully hit the panic-button last week resulting in a speed of mobilisation few have seen across government in a lifetime.
Click to expand...

Yes I know they did. I'm simply telling you how that figure was reached and why it's not comparable to flu figures as an example of how statistics can be reported in different ways.
 
Bladepicker said:
We are nowhere near the numbers infected or critical in Italy yet and we already have one hospital full in London and I know at Royal Derby they have had to exoand the ICU into the 'step down' wards already.

They've never had to do that for flu.

While I understand the need to not panic as approximately 80 percent of those that get it won't need hospital, it is worse than fucking flu and the measures we are taking my be on thd extreme side but it is not an overreaction in my opinion given the facts we do know.
Click to expand...

It's simply a factual comment on how statistics are reported, I'm not discussing whether it's worse than flu or not. I'm talking about why you can't use those two figures in direct comparison. And with such a high figure quoted, naturally it creates more panic in people, including those of us who are likely to contract it and recover fully and with ease. Then again, maybe that's a good thing in terms of trying to protect our more vulnerable people, who knows...
 
The good news is that the weather is going to be nice today. 23c someone said. So this calls for a relaxing afternoon in the garden, the customary lighting of the barbecue and a lazy day, catching some rays in the sunshine.

The other good news, but not happening today, is that the football season will be finished. We might even get to go to the last few games, although I suspect it's more likely we'll be watching closed door games on TV. Don't know if it's been posted on here already, but last week there were some timelines speculated for the end of social lockdown, by Karl Sikora (ex WHO - that's "World Health Organization" btw - not the one with Roger Daltrey in it). He reckoned if the current trend of reduction in new cases continues, we could be opening clubs, pubs, restaurants again by May 18th and foreign travel by 1st June. That would be GREAT news wouldn't it? May 18th, being a Monday, would not be the best day of the week to open the pubs - they'd have to make Tuesday 19th a national holiday if they do! The only thing is, it's nothing to do with Karl Sikora.

But..

Sometime during May, we will see restrictions being eased on social distancing - as long as the current new reported cases continues to fall.
 
Cerberus Blade said:
The good news is that the weather is going to be nice today. 23c someone said. So this calls for a relaxing afternoon in the garden, the customary lighting of the barbecue and a lazy day, catching some rays in the sunshine.

The other good news, but not happening today, is that the football season will be finished. We might even get to go to the last few games, although I suspect it's more likely we'll be watching closed door games on TV. Don't know if it's been posted on here already, but last week there were some timelines speculated for the end of social lockdown, by Karl Sikora (ex WHO - that's "World Health Organization" btw - not the one with Roger Daltrey in it). He reckoned if the current trend of reduction in new cases continues, we could be opening clubs, pubs, restaurants again by May 18th and foreign travel by 1st June. That would be GREAT news wouldn't it? May 18th, being a Monday, would not be the best day of the week to open the pubs - they'd have to make Tuesday 19th a national holiday if they do! The only thing is, it's nothing to do with Karl Sikora.

But..

Sometime during May, we will see restrictions being eased on social distancing - as long as the current new reported cases continues to fall.
Click to expand...

I do wonder how they will manage the reopening of pubs. As soon as it’s announced, that first night is going to be carnage! It would be the best night out in generations, but I’m sure the government would want to avoid packed pubs.

Would it be limited numbers allowed in? But then you’ll just have loads of people outside waiting to get in. The police requirements that night would also be massive.

I can see pubs being the last to reopen unfortunately, unless there is some breakthrough in determining immunity or a vaccine.
 
You would have to assume have reduced hours and capacity to start with. How that's in any way enforceable I don't know.

Talk of potentially a vaccine by September. Let's say that works out on that time line. Is opening pubs up a month or two earlier even worth it?
 
New cases are starting to tail off.
If this keeps up,and the two hats abide by the social distances, we could be enjoying cuddling our parents and grandparents again, spending the afternoon in the pub and picking a bet out.
Hopefully this time next month the plans will be in place to start easing us all back to normality 🙏🙏🙏🙏
 



My thoughts. The lockdown will be relaxed when the government and its advisers believe that the hospitals can cope with the level of new infections. The virus will still be highly infectious. This still means the people who haven't had the virus (however many that may be) will likely become infected. I know some who are shitting themselves with the thought of contracting it. You wanna take your chances?
 
Last edited:
I don’t think games in front of fans are going to take place until 2021.
 
YES Blade said:
I do wonder how they will manage the reopening of pubs. As soon as it’s announced, that first night is going to be carnage! It would be the best night out in generations, but I’m sure the government would want to avoid packed pubs.

Would it be limited numbers allowed in? But then you’ll just have loads of people outside waiting to get in. The police requirements that night would also be massive.

I can see pubs being the last to reopen unfortunately, unless there is some breakthrough in determining immunity or a vaccine.
Click to expand...
Reopening pubs is not a straightforward exercise, breweries will need at least a 2 week notice period to brew, deliver & pubs a further 3/4 days for the beer to settle.
 
gavtheblade said:
New cases are starting to tail off.
If this keeps up,and the two hats abide by the social distances, we could be enjoying cuddling our parents and grandparents again, spending the afternoon in the pub and picking a bet out.
Hopefully this time next month the plans will be in place to start easing us all back to normality 🙏🙏🙏🙏
Click to expand...

Tail off yes...but still going to be hundreds dying a day for weeks if not more. Until it's in the dozens I can't see lockdown ending.
 
Deaneandagana said:
Reopening pubs is not a straightforward exercise, breweries will need at least a 2 week notice period to brew, deliver & pubs a further 3/4 days for the beer to settle.
Click to expand...

The beer needs to settle?! I thought I was educated in the world of booze, but it seems like I'm not keyed up on the finer details!
 
Berkshire Blade said:
Behind closed doors football is terrible to watch though. A few games that were played before common sense took hold were painful to watch. It's not the same.
Click to expand...

Behind closed doors football is a million times better than no football at all!
 
Several years ago I bought a copy of Derek Dooley's biography, written in conjunction with Keith Farnsworth. I put it in a bookshelf with the intention of reading it "one day" (along with all the other books, bought with similar good intentions). I'm pleased to report that the day has duly arrived. I'm just through the first few chapters and it's proving to be a good read.
Covid 19: It's an ill wind....
 



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