The Lundstram Myth...

[TJ blade]

Strong waft of rotting tuna and under-cured pork. Give a wide berth, fellow Blades.

You sad Wendy bastard.

 

[Cerberus Blade]

Not to shout down debate, but this seems a strange thing to argue.

I really think he's been one of our best players this season. Not only is he our top-scoring midfielder and second top-scoring player overall, he's had more shots than any player bar McGoldrick from getting into the box at the right time (15 out of 24 shots inside the box so it's not like he's shooting from anywhere). I know some people hate the advanced stats but he has the highest expected goals of any player on our team bar McGoldrick, to go with the highest expected assists



Out of 50 passes attempted yesterday, 23 were forward, 17 were in attacking third (only Fleck had more), he created 2 chances (joint most with McGoldrick) including the 1 "big chance" of the game that McGoldrick put over - which came off a 60-yard sprint with the ball and then a perfect pass.

Honestly if that's our weak link then it's no wonder we're 9th in the table.

The guy said that Lundstram's passing was going "increasingly backward". You then quote a stat which says "out of 50 passes, 23 were forward". So, that means 27 weren't then? That's o.k. - there's nothing wrong with that, but just say so. Because it's what I see as well. And it's been part of Lundstram's game for a long time.

Let me be clear, I've really come to appreciate Lundstram this season, I think the lad's been great. Like anyone else, there is always ways they can get even better, and for me, the one frustration that I sometimes have with Lundstram is his tendency to play the safe ball backwards, when we should be looking to push on a bit more. I certainly felt that against Newcastle the other day, especially in the final 15 minutes when we were trying desperately to break them down. I wasn't the only one groaning when Lundstram is choosing to start a new passage of play all over again, by going backwards with the ball, on a few occasions, as the clock was ticking down.

I do not consider Lundstram to be a weak link, or any of those midfielders tbh. I think they all bring something different to the team. That doesn't mean I wouldn't like to see some competition for them though.

 

[Cerberus Blade]

The OP is a classic example of our observations as defined by the Israeli psychologists who were behind the Moneyball etc factual assessment of people. Human beings form an opinion very quickly and then only look for evidence to support that opinion and tend to ignore evidence that contradicts their ideas. Sports scouts are particularly guilty of this. I have experienced this myself - as early on I felt that Duffy lost the ball too often, and that became all that I saw during a game. Eventually, I went through recordings of 2 whole matches and wrote down each time that he did something well. I was amazed. This is why all of the stats gathering began, initially with baseball but now crucial in our game. The stuff that Beans quotes and Blades Analytic does is the only truly objective view of a player’s contribution. Everybody’s individual view is always subjective and biased. Unfortunately, we’re only human!!

I'm familiar with the psychology stuff and yes you are right with that example. It goes even wider than that. Human beings form an opinion when meeting another human being for the first time, in less than 30 seconds, (some studies say 10 seconds) based on initial impressions alone. They then spend the rest of the time looking for evidence to confirm what their initial impressions are. Same things happen anonymously on forums like this. The way you write, the things you say, will quickly lead some folks to think they like you and you are o.k. and others to dislike or even hate you. And yet we don't know each other - it's really that stupid. (At least I don't know anyone on here!).

I agree with the general gist of what you are saying, however...I think you have to be a little bit careful about concluding that stats are the only objective view of a player's contribution. Stats have a number of limitations too. The sample size, the method of calculation, the context in which they are used to explain something, for example. I work with stats and understand confidence intervals and p values. I'm not claiming to be a statistician btw - there are people who are fully dedicated to that - but I have to be able to understand the stats, how they've been arrived at, and what they actually mean. They do get used out of context, quite frequently. Sometimes mischievously, but mostly because people do not apply the right stat to support their theory. In some cases, (and politicians are good at this) a stat will be used to answer a totally different question to the one asked.

There was a good example in Wilder's first season, where Duffy (I think it was?) was playing out of his skin and Wilder took him off after about an hour, which puzzled most of us because he was playing so well. After that the team performance dropped off significantly. After the game Wilder admitted that the decision to take him off was based on the bio-stats collected during the game, they suggested he was about to run out of steam, but he'd clearly still got plenty left in the tank and we suffered negatively when he was taken off.

I've heard Wilder say before that "we use stats, but we also use our eyes". And he's absolutely right about that. In order to get closest to an objective view, you do need a combination of statistics and the ability to understand and interpret those statistics in the right context - and that calls for human judgement.

 

[Blademan89]

I don't think lunny was intended to be a starter, if it was true that we had a bid accepted for sander berge as reports suggests and as backed up by the club.

As pre season came lunny started and actually took his chances and never looked back and as berge rejected us it left us with lunny in that position, who is playing at the top of his game. But still he is coming under unnecessary criticism, you have to remember this is a player who was playing league one couple seasons ago and hardly got a game in the championship (albeit didn't look as though he would make the grade in those games)

 

[Jimmy Fleck]

Lundstram has 3 goals... Think people need to take a look at where we were not so long ago and realise how well the entire team are playing. Everyone one of those boys deserves full credit. If we stay up, we will eventually upgrade the midfield yes but at the min I think they’re doing a fine job.

 

[SelbyBlade]

I like Lunny now. We need to be more defensive in midfield in this division. As the old adage goes strikers win matches defenders win championships. As far as I'm concerned his defending was always ok just his passing and spacial awareness seemed lacking. But these two aspects have massively improved. The pass to Moose against Everton showed both great passing and an excellent football brain. His arrival in the box is showing great awareness. So I think he has improved a great deal. Having said all of that I think Mo Besic would be better in that position. He has been brought in as cover for the whole midfield but his drives and passes are excellent and I think we would be even more potent with him, if only Didzy can put away Mo's passes we would really be onto something.

 

[PittsburghBlade]

Thoughts on how this has developed? Been a clear weak link in the last month.

 

[robbiez666]

Thoughts on how this has developed? Been a clear weak link in the last month.

He's young and been playing out of his skin. Not unusual to have a bad patch.

 

[Greasy Chap Butty]

Thoughts on how this has developed? Been a clear weak link in the last month.

That must have cheered you up.

 

[PittsburghBlade]

That must have cheered you up.

Why? It's been glaringly obvious for weeks now.

I love united and support everything and everyone who represents us doesn't mean I HAVE to rate him. I just think we can do better and Besic playing has been a considerable step up.

 

[bromtom]

Thoughts on how this has developed? Been a clear weak link in the last month.

Last 3: Man City injured didn't play, Liverpool bit rusty but no worse than anyone else, West Ham sloppy game but we still won.

Bit harsh on him. Definitely needs to improve from West Ham but he's been great for us.

 

[Greasy Chap Butty]

Why? It's been glaringly obvious for weeks now.

I love united and support everything and everyone who represents us doesn't mean I HAVE to rate him. I just think we can do better and Besic playing has been a considerable step up.

What are your thoughts on post #73 , and thoughts on posts that have given stats as to his performance? i.e Objective facts as opposed to a subjective held belief.
He has had a couple of off games, but that doesn't validate the belief that you cling to.

I'm not sure if you also posted when he won Man of the Match, or is it just when he has an off game?

 

[PittsburghBlade]

What are your thoughts on post #73 , and thoughts on posts that have given stats as to his performance? i.e Objective facts as opposed to a subjective held belief.
He has had a couple of off games, but that doesn't validate the belief that you cling to.

I'm not sure if you also posted when he won Man of the Match, or is it just when he has an off game?

So what makes your belief valid that he isn't our clear weak link in the team? I think he has done a JOB for us and improved massively on last season.

But i do think that Norwood and Fleck are excellent and if you put another midfielder of their calibre in the midfield three we will look even better. He deserved to hold onto his place in the team but it appears all the extra work he put in the off season has burnt him out in around November.

Besic is better than him and I think Wilder was harsh and perhaps sentimental (a massive first) in picking him for Liverpool half fit and off the back of a City game we actually almost won if we had the rub of the green for once.

He is a fine player but his lack of quality could have potentially cost us in the last couple games missing an easy side foot volley from 6 yards and a lay off for baldock that should've definitely been a goal.

 

[Nonamedhorse]

Might be time to swop him out for Besic, although he frightens me that one strong tackle from him could see a sending off and cost us.

 

[Geordie Blade]

He's the only player we don't have direct competition for and Besic, Morrison, Freeman aren't it so I'm not having that either.

I just think we can do better and Besic playing has been a considerable step up.

 

[bromtom]

So what makes your belief valid that he isn't our clear weak link in the team? I think he has done a JOB for us and improved massively on last season.

The given stats maybe? If there is statistical proof that he isn't a weak link, then that beats any "beliefs", surely.

 

[Greenblades]

Might be time to swop him out for Besic, although he frightens me that one strong tackle from him could see a sending off and cost us.

I agree with you as I think Lunny has been off it and a rest might do him good. That or his contract is a distraction. Either way a change might be ok. Besic does not get many red cards either as much as his style would suggest he might. Play him on Saturday for me.

 

[Greasy Chap Butty]

So what makes your belief valid that he isn't our clear weak link in the team? I think he has done a JOB for us and improved massively on last season.

But i do think that Norwood and Fleck are excellent and if you put another midfielder of their calibre in the midfield three we will look even better. He deserved to hold onto his place in the team but it appears all the extra work he put in the off season has burnt him out in around November.

Besic is better than him and I think Wilder was harsh and perhaps sentimental (a massive first) in picking him for Liverpool half fit and off the back of a City game we actually almost won if we had the rub of the green for once.

He is a fine player but his lack of quality could have potentially cost us in the last couple games missing an easy side foot volley from 6 yards and a lay off for baldock that should've definitely been a goal.

He's burnt out?? FFS he's had a couple of off games. He was man of the match a few back. Also funny you mention us losing at City, our first away loss, a game he didn't play in...........


So, you've compared him to Flecky and Oli :

Oli Fleck Lunny
passes per match 56 35 42
big chances 6 4 6
accurate long balls 160 31 73
goals per minute 0.05 0.21 0.14

So, Fleck is worst in 3 of the 4. How about dropping him instead? I think that's a load of bollocks too.

Sky Sports Ratings:
Burnley
Henderson (8), Basham (8), Egan (8), O'Connell (7), Baldock (8), Lundstram (9), Norwood (8), Fleck (8), Stevens (8), McGoldrick (8), Mousset (9)

Spurs
Henderson (7), Basham (7), Egan (7), O’Connell (7), Baldock (8), Lundstram (8), Norwood (7), Fleck (7), Stevens (7), McGoldrick (8), Mousset (8)

ManU
Moore (7), Basham (6), Jagielka (6), O’Connell (6), Baldock (6), Lundstram (7), Norwood (7), Fleck (8), Stevens (6), McGoldrick (6), Mousset (8).

Wolves
Henderson (6), Basham (7), Egan (6), O’Connell (6), Baldock (5), Lundstram (5), Norwood (6), Fleck (6), Stevens (6), McGoldrick (6), Mousset (7)

Newcastle
Henderson (5), Baldock (6), Basham (5), O’Connell (7), Egan (6), Stevens (6), Fleck (7), Lundstram (7), Norwood (6), Sharp (6), McBurnie (6).

Norwich
Henderson (7), Baldock (9), Basham (6), Egan (7), O'Connell (7), Stevens (8), Fleck (6), Lundstram (6), Norwood (6), McGoldrick (6), Mousset (5)

Villa
Henderson (6), Baldock (7), Basham (7), Egan (6), O'Connell (7), Stevens (7), Lundstram (8), Norwood (7), Fleck (9), McGoldrick (8), Mousset (6)

Brighton
Henderson (7), Basham (8), Egan (8), O’Connell (8), Baldock (7), Lundstram (8), Norwood (8), Freeman (7), Stevens (7), McGoldrick (7), McBurnie (7)

Watford
Henderson (6), Baldock (7), Basham (8), Egan (7), O'Connell (7), Stevens (6), Lundstram (6) , Norwood (8), Fleck (7), McGoldrick (7), McBurnie (6)

Man City
Didn't play - first away loss.........

Liverpool
Henderson (7), Basham (7), Egan (6), O’Connell (6), Baldock (5), Lundstram (6), Norwood (5), Fleck (6), Stevens (6), Mousset (5), McGoldrick (5).

WestHam
Henderson (7), Basham (7), Egan (6), O’Connell (7), Baldock (7), Lundstram (7), Norwood (7), Fleck (8), Stevens (7), McGoldrick (6), McBurnie (6)


I'm struggling to see your weakest link argument. He's had 2 off games and others highest or top section of team, including comapred to Fleck and Oli.
Every player needs pushing and needs competition on the bench. He is the same.

 

[Blade58]

He's burnt out?? FFS he's had a couple of off games. He was man of the match a few back. Also funny you mention us losing at City, our first away loss, a game he didn't play in...........


So, you've compared him to Flecky and Oli :

Oli Fleck Lunny
passes per match 56 35 42
big chances 6 4 6
accurate long balls 160 31 73
goals per minute 0.05 0.21 0.14

So, Fleck is worst in 3 of the 4. How about dropping him instead? I think that's a load of bollocks too.

Sky Sports Ratings:
Burnley
Henderson (8), Basham (8), Egan (8), O'Connell (7), Baldock (8), Lundstram (9), Norwood (8), Fleck (8), Stevens (8), McGoldrick (8), Mousset (9)

Spurs
Henderson (7), Basham (7), Egan (7), O’Connell (7), Baldock (8), Lundstram (8), Norwood (7), Fleck (7), Stevens (7), McGoldrick (8), Mousset (8)

ManU
Moore (7), Basham (6), Jagielka (6), O’Connell (6), Baldock (6), Lundstram (7), Norwood (7), Fleck (8), Stevens (6), McGoldrick (6), Mousset (8).

Wolves
Henderson (6), Basham (7), Egan (6), O’Connell (6), Baldock (5), Lundstram (5), Norwood (6), Fleck (6), Stevens (6), McGoldrick (6), Mousset (7)

Newcastle
Henderson (5), Baldock (6), Basham (5), O’Connell (7), Egan (6), Stevens (6), Fleck (7), Lundstram (7), Norwood (6), Sharp (6), McBurnie (6).

Norwich
Henderson (7), Baldock (9), Basham (6), Egan (7), O'Connell (7), Stevens (8), Fleck (6), Lundstram (6), Norwood (6), McGoldrick (6), Mousset (5)

Villa
Henderson (6), Baldock (7), Basham (7), Egan (6), O'Connell (7), Stevens (7), Lundstram (8), Norwood (7), Fleck (9), McGoldrick (8), Mousset (6)

Brighton
Henderson (7), Basham (8), Egan (8), O’Connell (8), Baldock (7), Lundstram (8), Norwood (8), Freeman (7), Stevens (7), McGoldrick (7), McBurnie (7)

Watford
Henderson (6), Baldock (7), Basham (8), Egan (7), O'Connell (7), Stevens (6), Lundstram (6) , Norwood (8), Fleck (7), McGoldrick (7), McBurnie (6)

Man City
Didn't play - first away loss.........

Liverpool
Henderson (7), Basham (7), Egan (6), O’Connell (6), Baldock (5), Lundstram (6), Norwood (5), Fleck (6), Stevens (6), Mousset (5), McGoldrick (5).

WestHam
Henderson (7), Basham (7), Egan (6), O’Connell (7), Baldock (7), Lundstram (7), Norwood (7), Fleck (8), Stevens (7), McGoldrick (6), McBurnie (6)


I'm struggling to see your weakest link argument. He's had 2 off games and others highest or top section of team, including comapred to Fleck and Oli.
Every player needs pushing and needs competition on the bench. He is the same.

It’s arguable that whilst Fleck may make less passes, he actually makes more relevant passes. By that I mean assists, through balls etc

 

[blade too long]

Still amazed some in here tbink they can read players better than Wilder and Knill can. If Wilder plays him theres no better. Its not remotely arguable. If he plays at Arsenal it makes this thread obsolete as Wilder cannot be questioned over player choice as we are 6th in a prem people said we'd struggle in. Just sit back and respect a much more knowledgeable man

 

[true99blade]

Bore off, clown.

 

[Deadbat]

He's burnt out?? FFS he's had a couple of off games. He was man of the match a few back. Also funny you mention us losing at City, our first away loss, a game he didn't play in...........


So, you've compared him to Flecky and Oli :

Oli Fleck Lunny
passes per match 56 35 42
big chances 6 4 6
accurate long balls 160 31 73
goals per minute 0.05 0.21 0.14

So, Fleck is worst in 3 of the 4. How about dropping him instead? I think that's a load of bollocks too.

Sky Sports Ratings:
Burnley
Henderson (8), Basham (8), Egan (8), O'Connell (7), Baldock (8), Lundstram (9), Norwood (8), Fleck (8), Stevens (8), McGoldrick (8), Mousset (9)

Spurs
Henderson (7), Basham (7), Egan (7), O’Connell (7), Baldock (8), Lundstram (8), Norwood (7), Fleck (7), Stevens (7), McGoldrick (8), Mousset (8)

ManU
Moore (7), Basham (6), Jagielka (6), O’Connell (6), Baldock (6), Lundstram (7), Norwood (7), Fleck (8), Stevens (6), McGoldrick (6), Mousset (8).

Wolves
Henderson (6), Basham (7), Egan (6), O’Connell (6), Baldock (5), Lundstram (5), Norwood (6), Fleck (6), Stevens (6), McGoldrick (6), Mousset (7)

Newcastle
Henderson (5), Baldock (6), Basham (5), O’Connell (7), Egan (6), Stevens (6), Fleck (7), Lundstram (7), Norwood (6), Sharp (6), McBurnie (6).

Norwich
Henderson (7), Baldock (9), Basham (6), Egan (7), O'Connell (7), Stevens (8), Fleck (6), Lundstram (6), Norwood (6), McGoldrick (6), Mousset (5)

Villa
Henderson (6), Baldock (7), Basham (7), Egan (6), O'Connell (7), Stevens (7), Lundstram (8), Norwood (7), Fleck (9), McGoldrick (8), Mousset (6)

Brighton
Henderson (7), Basham (8), Egan (8), O’Connell (8), Baldock (7), Lundstram (8), Norwood (8), Freeman (7), Stevens (7), McGoldrick (7), McBurnie (7)

Watford
Henderson (6), Baldock (7), Basham (8), Egan (7), O'Connell (7), Stevens (6), Lundstram (6) , Norwood (8), Fleck (7), McGoldrick (7), McBurnie (6)

Man City
Didn't play - first away loss.........

Liverpool
Henderson (7), Basham (7), Egan (6), O’Connell (6), Baldock (5), Lundstram (6), Norwood (5), Fleck (6), Stevens (6), Mousset (5), McGoldrick (5).

WestHam
Henderson (7), Basham (7), Egan (6), O’Connell (7), Baldock (7), Lundstram (7), Norwood (7), Fleck (8), Stevens (7), McGoldrick (6), McBurnie (6)


I'm struggling to see your weakest link argument. He's had 2 off games and others highest or top section of team, including comapred to Fleck and Oli.
Every player needs pushing and needs competition on the bench. He is the same.

Not sure I'd go on Sky Sports ratings. They are more deluded than mine! His 8s v Brighton and Villa are ridiculous.

He has had more than one bad game. Since his excellent performances v Burnley, Man Utd and Spurs...

He was poor at Wolves....was ordinary v Newcastle and Norwich...poor first half v Villa but then excellent 2nd half. One of our poorer players at Brighton. He had a bit of a stinker v Watford and then everyone was bad at Liverpool. He was awful the other night v West Ham.

That a 8 games with one great half v Villa...3 or 4 ordinary 7/10 at best and 2/3 really poor games which have happened in his last 3 outings.

I'd give him a rest and play Besic at Arsenal. On current form he cannot be too disappointed to be dropped as his form has dropped off the last period after a superb first 15 or so games.

 

[Greasy Chap Butty]

It’s arguable that whilst Fleck may make less passes, he actually makes more relevant passes. By that I mean assists, through balls etc

Yes, Fleck is an invaluable part of the team.

 

[Greasy Chap Butty]

Not sure I'd go on Sky Sports ratings. They are more deluded than mine! His 8s v Brighton and Villa are ridiculous.

He has had more than one bad game. Since his excellent performances v Burnley, Man Utd and Spurs...

He was poor at Wolves....was ordinary v Newcastle and Norwich...poor first half v Villa but then excellent 2nd half. One of our poorer players at Brighton. He had a bit of a stinker v Watford and then everyone was bad at Liverpool. He was awful the other night v West Ham.

That a 8 games with one great half v Villa...3 or 4 ordinary 7/10 at best and 2/3 really poor games which have happened in his last 3 outings.

I'd give him a rest and play Besic at Arsenal. On current form he cannot be too disappointed to be dropped as his form has dropped off the last period after a superb first 15 or so games.

Correct. No way am I saying he is best thing since sliced bread and un-droppable.
Besic coming on made a big difference last week, and I'd agree Besic has earned a chance to start at Arsenal. My point was more on the lines that some people (not you btw) won't let their vendetta against him stop. He has took a big step forward this season and given us some great goals. he deserve sthe same respect and fair judgement as any other player on the pitch.

 

[Niceguyeddie]

besic deserves a start based on his performances recently and lundstram should be a good option to stretch defences late on in games
he definetly looks like he needs a rest

 

[PittsburghBlade]

Still amazed some in here tbink they can read players better than Wilder and Knill can. If Wilder plays him theres no better. Its not remotely arguable. If he plays at Arsenal it makes this thread obsolete as Wilder cannot be questioned over player choice as we are 6th in a prem people said we'd struggle in. Just sit back and respect a much more knowledgeable man

It's a forum for discussing this type of thing. "Obsolete" is one of the more funny things i've read on a forum for the past 10-12 years

 

[LoughboroBlade]

Besic is better than him

Lundstram has in the role this season demonstrated he can rotate with the RWB & RCB when working overloads, pass effectively, tackle when required, press, burst forward to support an attack, hit through balls, cross, and shoot accurately with a range of shots with either foot.

Besic might be able to do all of the same and more. But so far I’d say he’s only displayed about half of these. He might be able to demonstrate more with a run in the side. But he’s certainly not there yet and I don’t really know what you’re the view that he’s better on. Perhaps in better form yes, but better overall...

 

[PittsburghBlade]

Lundstram has in the role this season demonstrated he can rotate with the RWB & RCB when working overloads, pass effectively, tackle when required, press, burst forward to support an attack, hit through balls, cross, and shoot accurately with a range of shots with either foot.

Besic might be able to do all of the same and more. But so far I’d say he’s only displayed about half of these. He might be able to demonstrate more with a run in the side. But he’s certainly not there yet and I don’t really know what you’re the view that he’s better on. Perhaps in better form yes, but better overall...

Besic hasn't just popped up out of our reserves we've got him on loan from Everton where he actually had a lot of good moments but fell victim to a turnover of managers and funds being made available.

He's looked better and better every time he's played and I think he deserves a run.

I don't think lundstram is shit and not deserving of the role he's played this year and people need to stop just reading what they want to read and see what i'm trying to say.

We have the best chance we could've ever imagined of cementing our place in the premier league and if lundstram isn't the first we need to improve on who is?

 

[BladeInIreland]

Fleck and Norwood are better than Lundstram, I'm not sure those statistics disprove that. For a starters what are the 6 big chances Norwood has had? Passes as outlined above can be important passes, or alternatively 2 yard pass back. Lundstram has had a good season, he would still be the one I would look to improve on first though.

 

[blade too long]

It's a forum for discussing this type of thing. "Obsolete" is one of the more funny things i've read on a forum for the past 10-12 years

Well whatever any fan thinks do you really think Wilder gives a toss. He will select Lundstram as he's doing what's been asked of him. Personal vendettas people have to their percieved scapegoats dont carry any weight. You can have an opinion as you call it but it is unsubstantiated saying he's not doing a job as we beat West ham and only nearly blew it when he was taken off.