45 points for safety ?

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Interestingly only once in last 16 seasons has a team with 40 or more gone down

For us to go down your looking at Villa winning 4 more games out of 19 left than us and Watford or Norwich to go on unbelievable runs whilst also those teams below us all winning 2 or 3 more than us which is highly unlikely

yes there is a chance that we could go on a massive run of losses but even in that unlikely event it’s still asking a lot from all the others
 

Niceguyeddie said:
They've got Watford twice and I think Watford will best them twice
I'm assuming villa and Norwich are down and Watford will pick up enough points to stay up ( just a feeling I've had all season ) so looking at the rest of the teams the gap between us and them isn't that big but I reackon they will spur each other on to get a high points total ,I'm fairly certain we will be OK although I do rember beating fulham to have a similar size gap to what we have now and still going down

But I'm not trying to push the point that we will go down I don't think we will but I think whoever does stay up will have to get the highest points total in prem history
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There is no way the 18th placed team will go down with 44 points. If really think that will happen, you should get in touch with a bookie, the odds will be huge.
 
Four more wins and we stay up.

If we go down from here it'll have been a monumental collapse.
 
I think it will be over 40. Maybe its my United cynicism but I still look at the results at the bottom than Man Utd, Arsenal etc who will finish above us at the end of the season. I wanted Norwich to get a draw at Villa and Soton winning was disappointing.

If United finish top 10 it would be an incredible season. This talk of Europe and top 5/6 is great to hear but the reality I feel will see a drop off as the tough January comes and we may struggle to keep the intensity up with a weak squad compared to others.

I recall we were 10 pts clear of the bottom 3 in February when we beat Spurs last time we went down.

I see it as a positive and a worry that other than maybe Norwich there are no teams you think...they are going to go down. There are about a dozen teams who could fill the other two places. This is good and bad!

Take out the current top 5 and then Arsenal/Man Utd and prob Wolves and it is tight really......Yes I know we are above those at the moment but after next 3 or 4 prob unless we shock the football world v City x 2 and Liverpool then are unlikely to be 6th still.

Then there are maybe 11 teams who will swap around a lot the rest of the way. Every team has shown ability to get big and surprise results (Brighton at Arsenal, Bournemouth and Soton at Chelsea, Watford v Man Utd, Newc v Man Utd, us v Arsenal) but we have been more consistent of course.

I think it will be interesting to see where we are in a month's time. If we can get a shock result here and there then great but it's Feb/March that will define whether we will be comfortably mid table or looking over our shoulder.

It's games v West Ham (this month), Bournemouth, Norwich, Brighton at the Lane that are such key games whilst trips to Palace, Burnley, Villa, Newcastle are games I fancy we can be successful.

In reality if we are talking about staying up (we all want and hope for much more than a relegation scrap) we need to win maybe 4 games from the above. I am very confident we can do that looking at the games above.

A huge unexpected result in one of the next two away and a win v West Ham at the Lane and we are in great shape.
 
John Street West Terrace said:
Here’s points totals for 17th placed sides since prem league went to 20 team format , so as you can see it varies a lot , highest points total of a relegated team was West Ham 42 pts in 02/03 & lowest points total for a team in 18th was WBA , so think we,ve got some way to go yet

95/96 Soton 38
96/97. Cov. 41
97/98. Everton 40
98/99. Soton. 41
99/00. Bradford. 36
00/01 Derby 42
01/02. Sunder’d. 40
02/03 Bolton. 44
03/04 Everton 39
04/05. WBA. 34
05/06. Port’th. 38
06/07. No Comment but it was 38
07/08 Fulham 36
08/09 Hull C 35
09/10 West Ham. 35
10/11 QPR. 37
11/12. Sund 39
12/13. WBA. 36
13/14 WBA 36
14/15. Villa. 38
15/16. Sund 39
16/17 Watford. 40
17/18 Soton. 36
18/19 Brighton. 36
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How did WBA get relegated 2 seasons running? (12/13 13/14).
 
I think Brighton will get dragged into the bottom 3
 
45 is just crazy talk. The top 6-7 (excluding us) are generally getting stronger and putting in better performances so I can't see a repeat of the poor first half of the season from them, where they dropped far too many points.
Chelsea may fall away but Tottenham, Man Utd, Wolves have had patchy spells which they seem to have come out of and will now push on.
10th and below will continue to take points of each other so I can't see how it's going to get anywhere over 40, I reckon 38 pts tops and then only if Watford and Norwich get cast adrift.
For us 4 wins and we're well clear, with the likely draws, maybe even just 2 more wins needed.
 
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11 points clear of the drop, with a ton of traffic in between. Bar some cataclysmic drop of form from us, combined with a dramatic turn around for most of the other teams between us and 18th, we ain't going down.

We would be better focussing our energies on the points tally required to finish in the top 6.
 
I hope we're not in a relegation battle and with Wilder in charge I just can't see it.

However, just to allude to the OP, this season hasn't been like other seasons so far in that the pack is separated by a low amount of points at this stage. No one is cut adrift and only Liverpool are routinely beating teams for fun.

If you look at the season West Ham went down, 8 points was the different between relegation and a top half finish. Although we're only half way through the season and things will continue to take shape, the table doesn't look too dissimilar to that season.

So yes, I think it's possible that the points total could be high this year and the sooner the bottom three get cut adrift, the more we can breathe easy as Blades who've been here before. I won't criticise anyone for erring on the side of caution just yet.
 

I just did one of those Premier League predictor things, and I didn't give us another win all season. Just losses away and draws at home against Brighton, Bournemouth, Norwich etc. and then predicted the other results realistically (so not giving Norwich or Villa wins away at top four teams or anything). We finished on 35 points and still avoided relegation.

It'll take a truly monumental fuck-up to get relegated from here.
 
I'm not speculating on whether 45 points will be required to stay up, that's in the realms of fantasy.

I am speculating, though, on whether such a thread like this could ever exist on Owlstalk?

If anything better encapusalated the main cultural difference between our fanbases, this is it.
 
Bruce Wayne said:
Points aside I am 100% convinced that there are at least 3 teams in this divison worse than us.
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That's my thinking too. Even teams that were way worse than us like Burnley, Newcastle are doing half decent. Beat West ham in a couple of weeks and on we go again to the top end. (Sorry Chris wilder I've wrote the next two games off...but I know you won't have)
 
Silent Blade said:
In 1989-90 Wendy went down with 43 points from 38 games, in 1992-93 Palace went down with 49 points from 42 games
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It’s a fair point and it proves it can happen, but the Champions in 90 had 79 points and in 93 had 84 points.

Liverpool and Man City will each get more than 79 points this season with Liverpool probably getting close to 100 if not more. This will impact on the points needed to stay up.
 
To be fair I wouldn't be quite so quick to write off Norwich although they have a big task ahead of them. They played well first half against Wolves at Carrow Road and were unlucky against Villa. Very difficult to predict bottom three, Soton looked doomed after their trouncing at Man City but have hardly looked back since. Newcastle picked up when Bruce took charge but may be wavering again. Brighton seem too good to go down and after yesterday I would be putting Watford in the same bracket. Villa could be in trouble unless they find some consistency though will probably strengthen in January.
 
Flatulent_Bob said:
45 is just crazy talk. The top 6-7 (excluding us) are generally getting stronger and putting in better performances so I can't see a repeat of the poor first half of the season from them, where they dropped far too many points.
Chelsea may fall away but Tottenham, Man Utd, Wolves have had patchy spells which they seem to have come out of and will now push on.
10th and below will continue to take points of each other so I can't see how it's going to get anywhere over 40, I reckon 38 pts tops and then only if Watford and Norwich get cast adrift.
For us 4 wins and we're well clear, with the likely draws, maybe even just 2 more wins needed.
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Aslong as we win the next 2 away games, i think we will stay up easy!!
 
Espania blade said:
Stop talking about "safety" we are looking up to at least a Europa cup place.

A couple of recruits in January and we will be well placed for the top 6 or 7th place.
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I'd rather look up at the Europa Cup place AFTER the couple of recruits arrive.
Until then - safety ;)
 
John Street West Terrace said:
Here’s points totals for 17th placed sides since prem league went to 20 team format , so as you can see it varies a lot , highest points total of a relegated team was West Ham 42 pts in 02/03 & lowest points total for a team in 18th was WBA , so think we,ve got some way to go yet

95/96 Soton 38
96/97. Cov. 41
97/98. Everton 40
98/99. Soton. 41
99/00. Bradford. 36
00/01 Derby 42
01/02. Sunder’d. 40
02/03 Bolton. 44
03/04 Everton 39
04/05. WBA. 34
05/06. Port’th. 38
06/07. No Comment but it was 38
07/08 Fulham 36
08/09 Hull C 35
09/10 West Ham. 35
10/11 QPR. 37
11/12. Sund 39
12/13. WBA. 36
13/14 WBA 36
14/15. Villa. 38
15/16. Sund 39
16/17 Watford. 40
17/18 Soton. 36
18/19 Brighton. 36
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37.2 points average over the past 10 seasons. We just need stop worrying about this. The likelihood that we can't scrape together 2 wins and 4 or 5 draws from 19 games is statistically extremely low, even for us. If that happens it would be a spectacular collapse and almost unheard of.
 
I know we've had a pretty rough time in our recent history, but fans whittling about relegation is way beyond comprehension. How on earth do these folks get through life!?
 
Your all fogetting the real boner here, when the porkies get their points deduction after finishing as title winners of championship, they will have evidence to give to the premier league that somehow it was our fault that their ground sale was wrong, dtaxis don't exist and elev8 is a lift servicing company, therfore the PL will automatically deduct us thrice the no of points the rustics were given so we are relegated, then the efl and PL have a rethink.
They decide to reinstate the points to the smelly porkers, they take our place in the PL and every team in the Premier League will all say welcome home the mahooovsives.
Not to be content with that the rustics will win everygame and the alternate opposing fans view from will for each game will be this,

"fantastic game by both teams, we played bloody brilliantly to get beaten 10-2 by the massives but they were just absolutely awesome, not like them blades were"
"totally agree, the blades last season were bogshite compared to the W***********y, how the crap has bannon not played for england before now...."
"yup agree, not one of our team would get in theirs, they are awesome"

So as far as statistics go, it don't matter.
👀👀
 

Numpty's Dusty Ruts. said:
37.2 points average over the past 10 seasons. We just need stop worrying about this. The likelihood that we can't scrape together 2 wins and 4 or 5 draws from 19 games is statistically extremely low, even for us. If that happens it would be a spectacular collapse and almost unheard of.
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We only have to be above 18th, not 17th.

The average of all those in 17th place is of no consequence.
 
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