Disappointing predicted league table

[Har Sole]

These guys have us down to finish second on 87 points. I'm gutted-hope Chris is aiming at top with 100 points again.

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/championship/league-table/predicted

I know Bristol City have some tough games, but I'll think they'll do better than predicted.

 

[Sid1978]

Disappointed?? I'd take that table right now!

 

[8lade]

I know Norwich have an easier run in but nobody is going to get 96 points this season.

 

[Beans]

All weekend I've been telling myself that we're still third-favourites for the top 2 (bookies agree). But if we "only" needed 23 points from our last 12 games for promotion... well... I just ran through our remaining fixtures, chucked in draws at Swillsborough and Birmingham and losses to Leeds and Preston, and we still got there with a few games to spare

Incidentally, a few months ago I looked at the points needed to finish 2nd in the last 10 seasons, and it averages out at 84.4... although the bar has been a win or two higher the last few seasons:

POINTS NEEDED TO FINISH 2ND

2017/18 – 89 points

2016/17 – 86 points

2015/16 – 89 points

2014/15 – 87 points

2013/14 – 86 points

2012/13 – 78 points

2011/12 – 87 points

2010/11 – 81 points

2009/10 – 80 points

2008/09 – 81 points

At the time of looking that up - just after we beat QPR at home - I thought that it would be a major stretch for us to get to 84/85 points. This was before away games with Norwich, Villa, WBA and Swansea, with Boro at home on top. Now...

Alright, time to have a cup of tea and calm down...

 

[Harry's Game]

If that table is anyway accurate I will be very happy.

But if those points totals are anywhere near correct I’ll eat my hat, coat, shirt, socks and shoes.

 

[sitwell]

These guys have us down to finish second on 87 points. I'm gutted-hope Chris is aiming at top with 100 points again.

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/championship/league-table/predicted

I know Bristol City have some tough games, but I'll think they'll do better than predicted.

View attachment 50146

Theres a reight massive club missing off there ,must be wrong ,big fat steve says so.

 

[georgebernardshaw]

 

[Harrisblade]

If that table is anyway accurate I will be very happy.

But if those points totals are anywhere near correct I’ll eat my hat, coat, shirt, socks and shoes.

For God's Sake make sure you don't eat the lucky ones you've been wearing to go to games in this season!

 

[S64 Blade]

86/87 should be enough to go up automatically. Maybe less if we win Leeds.

 

[Woodward's Currie]

I would take that final table right now!

 

[SB_90]

I have some concerns about that table 1 Middlesboro in my opinion are 1 of the poorest sides in the top 7 ive thought for a while.so dont see how they finish 3rd & how to do leeds drop from 2nd to 5th.

i did some simple maths & took the current points per game everyone has managed & extrapolated it over 46 games
Norwich 89.3
Leeds 89.2
------------------------
Sheff utd 86.6
WBA 81.2
Boro 79.5
Bristol 76.2
----------------------
Derby 73.3
Birmingham 65.5
Forest 65.5

 

[Agreasychipbutty]

Disappointed?? I'd take that table right now!

Whoooosh

 

[Chali 2na]

All weekend I've been telling myself that we're still third-favourites for the top 2 (bookies agree). But if we "only" needed 23 points from our last 12 games for promotion... well... I just ran through our remaining fixtures, chucked in draws at Swillsborough and Birmingham and losses to Leeds and Preston, and we still got there with a few games to spare

Incidentally, a few months ago I looked at the points needed to finish 2nd in the last 10 seasons, and it averages out at 84.4... although the bar has been a win or two higher the last few seasons:

POINTS NEEDED TO FINISH 2ND

2017/18 – 89 points

2016/17 – 86 points

2015/16 – 89 points

2014/15 – 87 points

2013/14 – 86 points

2012/13 – 78 points

2011/12 – 87 points

2010/11 – 81 points

2009/10 – 80 points

2008/09 – 81 points

At the time of looking that up - just after we beat QPR at home - I thought that it would be a major stretch for us to get to 84/85 points. This was before away games with Norwich, Villa, WBA and Swansea, with Boro at home on top. Now...

Alright, time to have a cup of tea and calm down...

Interesting post Beans, as per

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

I have some concerns about that table 1 Middlesboro in my opinion are 1 of the poorest sides in the top 7 ive thought for a while.so dont see how they finish 3rd & how to do leeds drop from 2nd to 5th.

i did some simple maths & took the current points per game everyone has managed & extrapolated it over 46 games
Norwich 89.3
Leeds 89.2
------------------------
Sheff utd 86.6
WBA 81.2
Boro 79.5
Bristol 76.2
----------------------
Derby 73.3
Birmingham 65.5
Forest 65.5

you could have saved a bit of time and checked here

https://www.s24su.com/forum/index.php?threads/the-run-in-points-predictor.69655/

 

[Scooter_mcgavin]

I have some concerns about that table 1 Middlesboro in my opinion are 1 of the poorest sides in the top 7 ive thought for a while.so dont see how they finish 3rd & how to do leeds drop from 2nd to 5th.

i did some simple maths & took the current points per game everyone has managed & extrapolated it over 46 games
Norwich 89.3
Leeds 89.2
------------------------
Sheff utd 86.6
WBA 81.2
Boro 79.5
Bristol 76.2
----------------------
Derby 73.3
Birmingham 65.5
Forest 65.5

So in your view, the table will have ZERO change to it between now and the end of the season.

 

[ChemEngBlade]

I know your comment was in jest, but I’d take that in a heartbeat!

 

[Hunter_999]

Given the critical WBA/Leeds game on Saturday, we will have a fuller picture of where we can get to.

People are also forgetting that we have Preston, Bristol City and Brentford who are no slouches. Run in is so difficult for the next 6.

 

[Sheffsteel]

I have some concerns about that table 1 Middlesboro in my opinion are 1 of the poorest sides in the top 7 ive thought for a while.so dont see how they finish 3rd & how to do leeds drop from 2nd to 5th.

i did some simple maths & took the current points per game everyone has managed & extrapolated it over 46 games
Norwich 89.3
Leeds 89.2
------------------------
Sheff utd 86.6
WBA 81.2
Boro 79.5
Bristol 76.2
----------------------
Derby 73.3
Birmingham 65.5
Forest 65.5

That table makes no sense, all you are saying is that form and results will continue as they have been,
So the current table will remain unchanged until the end of the season, this rarely ever happens.

You need to look at those teams and study performances instead of results because performances are generally an indicator of future results. Teams that keep playing well, creating chances will usually start gaining good results. Teams that struggle but pinch results scoring last minute winners usually cant keep scraping results over a long period.

Performances suggest that us and Norwich are the best teams.
Leeds performance wise seem to be wobbling, Logic suggests poor results are just around the corner for them. West Brom are hit and miss, have the best individuals so on their day maybe the best side in this division but can’t seem to gel as a team.
Boro have Pullis and history shows that they are pragmatic and tough, can gain results even when underpar.

Trying to be balanced and neutral I’d say Norwich favourites to top the league. I’d put us as favourites to finish 2nd.
The main concern for me is WBA, if they get their act together then they can finish 2nd and be above us.

 

[Rusty view]

I got us being Champions on 89 pts. That said I also had us down to lose on Saturday.

Strangely, positional wise it was very similar. I had just a 2 pt gap between us and fifth.

 

[Sid1978]

Whoooosh

 

[SB_90]

So in your view, the table will have ZERO change to it between now and the end of the season.

apart from leeds being 2nd & winning/losing the title on GD. but yes it doesnt take changes of position but who knows the season is unpredictable but I think its more reliable as a ball park figure because trying to predict results on hunches & bias is impossible. this at least take most of the seasons ups & downs

because would anyone predicted that, Rotherham would outplay us at new York stadium. that we would nearly lose to bottom of the league Ipswich. who thought we would outplay villa at villa park. who thought we would capitulate in the 2nd game of the season v middlesboro

 

[Pinchy]

86/87 should be enough to go up automatically. Maybe less if we win Leeds.

We’ll have to build a new trophy cabinet to accommodate a large city.

 

[Sheffsteel]

because trying to predict results on hunches & bias is impossible. this at least take most of the seasons ups & downs

because would anyone predicted that despite 2 draws Rotherham would outplay us at new York stadium. that we would nearly lose to bottom of the league ipswich

Agree you don’t judge results on hunches and bias. However a teams future results can be based on performances, in game data and injuries. When Hull City and Preston were struggling I’m sure all the data showed they were in a false position near the bottom. As expected both clubs flew up the league. When Wednesday were just below the playoffs all the data suggested they were in a false posting and very quickly they then fell down the league.

Also agree you can’t predict individual score lines. If we play Rotherham and Ipswich we might lose but if we played those teams 10 times, we’d win 7 or 8 times. A general consensus from fans is important as they see their teams week in week out.

NC fans see their team playing well every single week and feel confident they’ll finish top 2 especially as they have the easiest fixtures
SU fans see our team looking strong with strength in depth,many also believe we have a great chance of top 2.
Boro fans are fed up of their terribly negative football, however their strength is scraping game so should finish in the playoffs.
LU fans are really worried that their form will suffer, they currently don’t look a top 2 side and didn’t strengthen during the JTW.
WBA fans believe they have the best players but feel that their manager (who is a relative novice) is holding them back.
DC fans think on their day are easily one of the best teams in this league but they are so inconsistent and can lose to the poor teams.
BC fans have no pressure and are playing really well as a team, could be dark horses but they have this recent history of strekiness, winning 5 then losing 5.

 

[grafikhaus]

All weekend I've been telling myself that we're still third-favourites for the top 2 (bookies agree). But if we "only" needed 23 points from our last 12 games for promotion... well... I just ran through our remaining fixtures, chucked in draws at Swillsborough and Birmingham and losses to Leeds and Preston, and we still got there with a few games to spare

Incidentally, a few months ago I looked at the points needed to finish 2nd in the last 10 seasons, and it averages out at 84.4... although the bar has been a win or two higher the last few seasons:

POINTS NEEDED TO FINISH 2ND

2017/18 – 89 points

2016/17 – 86 points

2015/16 – 89 points

2014/15 – 87 points

2013/14 – 86 points

2012/13 – 78 points

2011/12 – 87 points

2010/11 – 81 points

2009/10 – 80 points

2008/09 – 81 points

At the time of looking that up - just after we beat QPR at home - I thought that it would be a major stretch for us to get to 84/85 points. This was before away games with Norwich, Villa, WBA and Swansea, with Boro at home on top. Now...

Alright, time to have a cup of tea and calm down...

Apart from 2015/16, the rest of those are way out. For example, in 2009/10, West Brom finished in second with 91 points - not 80.



The average points needed to finish second over the last ten seasons is 87.9.

 

[Beans]

Apart from 2015/16, the rest of those are way out. For example, in 2009/10, West Brom finished in second with 91 points - not 80.

View attachment 50156

The average points needed to finish second over the last ten seasons is 87.9.

View attachment 50157

I was looking at the points total of the team that finished 3rd and adding 1 (or in the case of there being a tie settled on goal difference, leaving it as it is). The thinking being, what was the minimum points required to finish "above 3rd" each season.

Eg 2008/09, Birmingham finished 2nd with 83 points, third-place United finished with 80 points = Birmingham needed 81 points to finish 2nd.

This is probably a crap way of doing it that would make mathematicians squirm, but there you go.

Your numbers are the amount of points earned by the team who finished 2nd, which is slightly different

 

[Sharrow Snuff Mill]

Don`t take any notice of it. It`s all wrong . The Pigs aren`t top.

 

[Deleted member 1486]

Wednesday could have a massive effect on the league. Obviously they play us, but also have a run of three games over Easter consisting of: Leeds, Norwich, Bristol City.

 

[Sheffsteel]

Wednesday could have a massive effect on the league. Obviously they play us, but also have a run of three games over Easter consisting of: Leeds, Norwich, Bristol City.

That brings up the other historical factor that seems to happen quite a lot.

That is around April time, some mid table clubs (and I expect Wednesday to be upper mid table in April) are impossible to predict and some tend to slump because they have nothing to play for. Whilst teams in and around relegation become much more difficult than expected because those clubs are fighting for their lifes.

 

[ucandomagic]

When you start trying to predict the detail of too much you can tend to lose sight of the few pivotal decisions that matter.

Almost all forecasts at present come up with the same top 6, with Norwich top and Leeds or us second. Of course, you can never rule out collapses or amazing runs from anybody.

So, ignoring less likely scenarios the crunch games to focus on are ours and Leeds.These are shown with all current results on these 2 tables.

I find us easier to predict - as performances like Saturday are solid, professional and repeatable. Leeds are generally younger and/or more volatile and so harder to predict.

We currently have the same points - and they have 1 game more. I keep coming up with Leeds slightly ahead - but obviously the Bell End Road game is pivotal.

Absolutely Magic to be starting from here though.

 

[grafikhaus]

It's all 'could'a, would'a, should'a.' Sobering thought, by the time the pig game starts we'll still have 64 points. Leeds could/should have 70 (QPR away tomorrow, WBA at home next Friday). Norwich could/should be on 69 (away to Millwall next Saturday). West Brom will be just one point behind us (63) if they win at Leeds.

Just shows how tight it is - we might/could easily be 6 points off the top (Leeds) and 5 points off second (Norwich) by this time next week - without even playing...

Shit. Just seen this thread.