Who deserves to be top of the Sky Bet Championship?

[Sothall_Blade]

https://www.skysports.com/football/...eserves-to-be-top-of-the-sky-bet-championship

Cut to the chase. It's Leeds and then us based on expected goals for and against.
Wednesday are 23rd!

 

[Houston_Blade]

Wrong, it’s the teams with the biggest attendance. All this new fangled (x)G shit is just made up to show the best teams at the top rather than the self entitled delusional bastards.

 

[Sean Thornton]

Wrong, it’s the teams with the biggest attendance. All this new fangled (x)G shit is just made up to show the best teams at the top rather than the self entitled delusional bastards.

(Cough), it's now AWAY attendances.

Can't remember why it's changed

 

[derryblade]

I would call that over analyzing a game of football

 

[Whiston Blade]

Team with the most points...?

 

[spongebobblade]

You only have to look at sky’s top 50 championship in-form players to realise what a load of bollocks sky spout

 

[true99blade]

We don’t deserve to be higher or lower, just like every other team. The league table isn’t lying.

 

[Blades Analytics]

We don’t deserve to be higher or lower, just like every other team. The league table isn’t lying.

Naturally biased here but....
When wedensday were in 6th did they deserve to be there based on that logic?
Because all shot and xG data had them as one of the bottom 3, and what have we seen from their last 5/6 games, a side that is in relegation form (he says reluctantly with Friday approaching!) Whilst i do agree the league table is the obvious important one and only one that ultimately matters at such an early stage of season (3rd of way through) performances (what xG and shot ratios try and quantify) can help to dispel some "myths" /teams that are in a false position!

 

[dc_blade]

We don’t deserve to be higher or lower, just like every other team. The league table isn’t lying.

I take your point, but sometimes it does. When we played Bolton, they were 3rd, but the stats boffins were pointing out how lucky they'd been to get the results they had. Sure enough, we gave them a tonking and they've fallen away rapidly. Likewise, when Wednesday were up in 6th, the stats showed they were getting much better results than their play deserved, and they've subsequently dropped like a stone.

 

[Blades Analytics]

https://www.skysports.com/football/...eserves-to-be-top-of-the-sky-bet-championship

Cut to the chase. It's Leeds and then us based on expected goals for and against.
Wednesday are 23rd!

I'm going to be horribly anal about this BUT
this table IS NOT an xG league table. It's techncially a goal difference table, that's what it's doing. It's worthwhile don't get me wrong but it isn't accounting for points and performance in every single game.

For example, if we were to beat 1 side 5-0 and draw next 3 games 1-1 and lost final game 0-1 our goal difference differential would be +4 (probably rank well) yet our points would only be 6 (which is a decent but not outstanding return from 15 possible)

consequently we could win 4 games 1-0 and draw 1 game 0-0. This gives same goal difference (+4) but points tally of 13 from 15.

That's what sky have done with xG, obviously over a big sample size the teams with biggest xG difference should be the ones at the top but actually we should be in 4th based on xG per game (i.e. points given to highest xG team per game).

 

[Blades Analytics]

Literally bored everyone into submission there i know!

 

[Sothall_Blade]

I'm going to be horribly anal about this BUT
this table IS NOT an xG league table. It's techncially a goal difference table, that's what it's doing. It's worthwhile don't get me wrong but it isn't accounting for points and performance in every single game.

For example, if we were to beat 1 side 5-0 and draw next 3 games 1-1 and lost final game 0-1 our goal difference differential would be +4 (probably rank well) yet our points would only be 6 (which is a decent but not outstanding return from 15 possible)

consequently we could win 4 games 1-0 and draw 1 game 0-0. This gives same goal difference (+4) but points tally of 13 from 15.

That's what sky have done with xG, obviously over a big sample size the teams with biggest xG difference should be the ones at the top but actually we should be in 4th based on xG per game (i.e. points given to highest xG team per game).

Yeah I noticed that myself.
To be fair, Sky did call it a "XG Differential Table" with an "xG difference" column.



I'm not sure what you would call the other sort?
"XG League Table" with an "Expected points" column?

 

[Blade82]

According to the pigs we should be bottom though because all of our goals have been penalties

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

According to the pigs we should be bottom though because all of our goals have been penalties

Pretty good XG from penalties.

 

[TCsLoveChild]

Mind the XG GAP

 

[BigBed]

I think it should be the team with the most points......

 

[Blades Analytics]

Yeah I noticed that myself.
To be fair, Sky did call it a "XG Differential Table" with an "xG difference" column.

View attachment 45745

I'm not sure what you would call the other sort?
"XG League Table" with an "Expected points" column?

Spot on mate! i do an xG table with xPoints every week (one released tomorrow) if that's of any interest!

 

[Blades Analytics]

Mind the XG GAP

That's out fecking standing!

 

[Beans]

Mind the XG GAP

Expected Gap?

 

[Sothall_Blade]

Spot on mate! i do an xG table with xPoints every week (one released tomorrow) if that's of any interest!

Well I would be interested. So that makes at least two of us.
If we're 4th in that table where are Wednesday? Still 23rd?

 

[true99blade]

Naturally biased here but....
When wedensday were in 6th did they deserve to be there based on that logic?
Because all shot and xG data had them as one of the bottom 3, and what have we seen from their last 5/6 games, a side that is in relegation form (he says reluctantly with Friday approaching!) Whilst i do agree the league table is the obvious important one and only one that ultimately matters at such an early stage of season (3rd of way through) performances (what xG and shot ratios try and quantify) can help to dispel some "myths" /teams that are in a false position!

I get you, but when Wednesday were sat in sixth it’s because they didn’t waste chances and the opposition did. That’s not luck or false, that’s the way football is.

 

[coaxingstar71]

What will be interesting to see is the Blades Analytics xG (or is it Xg?) table at the end of the season to see if teams deserved their final place and if the old cliches are too.... it's a marathon not a sprint, everything evens out over a season etc etc.

 

[Beans]

What will be interesting to see is the Blades Analytics xG (or is it Xg?) table at the end of the season to see if teams deserved their final place and if the old cliches are too.... it's a marathon not a sprint, everything evens out over a season etc etc.

Excuse me for jumping into this one, but if you're interested, here's EFLStats xG table from 2017/18:

Because the margins are so fine in football (low-scoring sport where one lucky moment can turn 1 point into 3), it's never going to be exact. But you can see that in the main most teams finished in the "deserved" region of the table with a couple of exceptions (Ipswich, Brentford, Blades).

 

[DronnieBlade]

What will be interesting to see is the Blades Analytics xG (or is it Xg?) table at the end of the season to see if teams deserved their final place and if the old cliches are too.... it's a marathon not a sprint, everything evens out over a season etc etc.

The 2 tables, sat side by side will most definitely look alike.

There will be the odd anomaly, but overall the picture painted will be highly correlated.

As per Beans post above for 17/18.

UTB

 

[diode_blade]

Mind the XG GAP

Ahem.... but excuse me one slight technical point.....that table is upside down...........according to the football league deluded department rules...

 

[BushBlade]

Excuse me for jumping into this one, but if you're interested, here's EFLStats xG table from 2017/18:

Because the margins are so fine in football (low-scoring sport where one lucky moment can turn 1 point into 3), it's never going to be exact. But you can see that in the main most teams finished in the "deserved" region of the table with a couple of exceptions (Ipswich, Brentford, Blades).

‘Because the margins are so fine in football (low-scoring sport where one lucky moment can turn 1 point into 3), it's never going to be exact.’

Which is why football is much more difficult to analyse statistically than American sports which tend to be much higher scoring and thus have fewer upsets.

 

[Pinchy]

We don’t deserve to be higher or lower, just like every other team. The league table isn’t lying.

Actually it is, or at least it’s an illusion. It’s accurate once only, after each team has played each other twice.

 

[Sandygate Blade]

To answer the OP......the team with most points. It's the only thing that counts at the end of the day

 

[Tom Bott]

You only have to look at sky’s top 50 championship in-form players to realise what a load of bollocks sky spout

Yes but this graphic does have a nicely balanced look at both the top and bottom

 

[moDtheGod]

The league table isn’t lying.

It is though.

Ollessendro, one for you this? Dig out your thread from about 7 years ago...