Quarter-season conclusions

[Beans]

Morning all,

With a quarter of the season gone and an international break upon us, I thought this would be a good point to take stock of our first twelve games and our fantastic form and league position:

https://www.uptheblades.com/latest-articles/2018/10/8/top-of-the-league-quarter-season-conclusions

Hopefully will make for as pleasant reading as the table itself Cheers.

 

[Sheffsteel]

Never really buy this “you’re next 3 games are against teams in the relegation zone so they should all be easy”, especially in the Championship because even the teams at the bottom (like Hull) are half decent.

I remember when we played Shrewsbury away in league 1, when they were in a run of 5 or 6 consecutive defeats.
Wilder commented pre match that playing teams near the bottom or in terrible form is a big test of character because everyone things you only need to turn up and it’s an easy win. He said when everyone expects a team to easily win, its added pressure and a big psychological test.

Another point that Wilder has made in the past is that fans of promotion chasing teams put big importance on the results/ performances against the other promotion chasers but those matches are still only worth 3 points. It’s an important factor how promotion chasing teams handle/ perform against the struggling teams near the bottom as those matches are worth the same 3 points.

 

[Echo Blade]

Cracking read, nice one

 

[Beans]

Great point Sheffsteel - I'm actually really looking forward to seeing how we do against Derby etc in the next few games. It'll be nice to watch a match where I'm not already mentally watching the seconds slip away as the opposition goalkeeper trots over to take a goal kick...

 

[Blade for Sale]

We've seen a bit of everything really. A mediocre start followed by a complete write off away left us all feeling a tad deflated. Since then we've ground out victories (QPR/Hull), blown opposition away with sublime football (Bolton/Villa), roller-coaster rides where we've gone form elation to despair to elation again (Millwall/Preston). Only 1 draw v Brum (which we arguably should have lost), which seems typical of 'Tuftyball'. Very few draws as we generally go out to win matches and seldom sit back and take the point.

Teams with lesser sprit than us, you feel, would have lost v Brum and drawn v Preston and Milwall. It's very, very heartening indeed to see us grinding out results when up against it, and you feel that this is an added dimension to our overall ability this season v last.

The defence is looking very settled now. Egan and Henderson have been fantastic. O'Connell and Basham have picked up where they left off. Freeman's return very, very welcome and Stevens looks re-born. The likes of Stearman and Baldock as back up demonstrates a very healthy depth in that dept.

The key 'playmaker' position which suffered so much with Coutt's injury last season has been filled with a superb addition in Norwood (I still pinch myself that we have picked him up on the deal we have), and Coutts himself is close to a full return. There isn't a team in this league and plenty in the league above, that wouldn't love to have those 2 in their squad.

I see no reason, none at all, why we can't keep this up and get to January well in contention. My one nagging doubt, magnificent as they have been so far, is the strikeforce. In terms of quality, we are fine. Sharp is as good as ever and McGoldrick is as clever a striker as we've had in a good few years. Clarke has not had the impact of last season but doesn't seem to have let his head drop which is massive for him. But I do feel we will need, if we want to win promotion, another quality addition up front to cover and supplement what we have.

And the fans, as ever, have our part to play. Magnificent in numbers but, it must be said, pretty quiet at home. If we do fall short, let's make sure it's not for lack of a rocking BDTBL. At its best, our support is almost worth a goal start.

Onward and upward Blades!

 

[Houston_Blade]

Great read Beans, enjoy the stats and explanations, it saves me having to think too much.

 

[MJM]

Always brightens up my Monday morning.

Cheers, Beans!

 

[GreasyChipBeattie]

Good read Beansy

 

[Fulwood Blade]

Morning all,

With a quarter of the season gone and an international break upon us, I thought this would be a good point to take stock of our first twelve games and our fantastic form and league position:

https://www.uptheblades.com/latest-articles/2018/10/8/top-of-the-league-quarter-season-conclusions

Hopefully will make for as pleasant reading as the table itself Cheers.

Well done - good read.

Egan deserves a massive praise for how we are playing - reads the game well - good header of the ball with distance - quick with it and covers round the back of Bash and JOC. He just gets on with defending. At times he looks like an old fashioned sweeper. Bit like the one-twos we are playing inside the oppositions box - both a throwback to the old days.

Egan is an astute signing - don't concede, don't lose.

Bring on the Derby - decided to go yesterday instead of watching it on the box - this season reminds me of L1, so it just has to be done.

Going on the train - wonder if that w@nker from some arty-farty theatre company will be on the train again - what was he complaining about? oh yes, "sh@g your women and drink your beer"

UTB

 

[Sheffsteel]

My main concern is the lack of high quality talents that can score a goal from nothing. We always need to work for the goal.
We never seem to score worldies or long range shots, in fact we rarely shoot from outside the area.

Our style of play and all our goals seem to be formulaic (quick team based passing routines/ crosses leading to close range tap ins).
Rarely is anything related to individual pieces of brilliance.

The problem with playing the same formula/ style every match is that at some point you would expect opposition managers will tactically be able to negate us, sooner or later.

 

[Roygbiv]

Excellent analysis as ever

 

[Isaw Joeshaw]

An excellent and very perceptive piece of work - well done Beans.

 

[coaxingstar71]

I love the analysis Beans and you can't really argue with it as it's based on statistical data. As Wilder has said in recent interviews, there's bound to be bumps in the road, but what a great time to be a Blade and long may it continue.

Completely agree with your comments too Blade for Sale , that's exactly how I see things currently.

Norwood is an incredible signing. The way he strikes a ball is a beauty to behold. I love those daisy cutters that he hits with the outside of his boot, arcing perfectly towards a team mate. I reckon he'll be the one who might get a couple of 'worldies' this season too.

 

[Pollingtonblade]

I tend to avoid cliches like the plague but if we keep this up we’ll go up.

 

[Bristol Blade]

Our defence has some new pieces that make it more solid.

I've seen a few people mention that our defence looks more solid than last season, and in particular that Henderson and Egan are upgrades on Blackman and Stearman. However we have actually conceded more goals than at the same stage last season (10 conceded in 17/18 vs. 13 this season).

What are your thoughts on this? Are we actually giving away fewer chances than last year? Have we just been unlucky with the goals we have conceded? Or is there not actually much difference/improvement in the defence compared with last year?

 

[TCsLoveChild]

very well written and enjoyable read. UTB

 

[Kozzy_is_my_Dad]

As things stand, with our pleasing league position and the football we're playing, you'd have to hope that we're an increasingly attractive destination for a number of January signings, most importantly strikers.

 

[ekke287]

Great summary Beans

Out of interest, if Norwood is 8th for pass completion, who is he behind?

 

[SouthEssexBlade]

Nicely done beans. (sounds like cooking instructions )

It would be interesting to see if the perceived upturn in the form of Stevens is borne out by the stats. I have a feeling they aren't that different.

 

[SwissBlade]

Beans excellent summary backed up with stats, its hard to manipulate the stats to show anything other than we deserve to be where we are.

I think your comment that when we play the likes of Leeds, Derby, Stoke, WBA etc things may not seem so bright, but so far we have dispatched 8 teams to win the most games of all teams in the division.

 

[TCsLoveChild]

Beans excellent summary backed up with stats, its hard to manipulate the stats to show anything other than we deserve to be where we are.

I think your comment that when we play the likes of Leeds, Derby, Stoke, WBA etc things may not seem so bright, but so far we have dispatched 8 teams to win the most games of all teams in the division.

"its hard to manipulate the stats to show anything other than we deserve to be where we are." bet I know a message board who will try UTB

 

[Edinblade]

Three points encourage me hugely when comparing this season with last:

1) When we hit the top last season we lost one of our most important players and no one managed to replace him. This season that same player is coming back rather than going out, which leads me to point 2
2) We have made what in my view is one of the most influential and important signings in a very long time. Norwood has been an absolute revelation and has made a huge difference to the team.
3) What happened after we hit the top last season will have been a great education for the whole management team. They will have studied what went wrong and now have the experience to ensure it doesn't happen again. That could be the most important change of all from last season.

 

[Antonb]

There goods points but norwood has always been that good. He didn't become that good overnight. I still feel we are shy of a great striker to stay in the top 2 for 46 games. Our strike force is too old. And we need a proper replacement for Duffy for when he tires. But for now , this season has been great. Loving it!

 

[Antonb]

Would love for us to get freeman from QPR in January. And a championship striker who can score goals. Yes I can dream!

 

[bromtom]

Whether we do stay in the top 2 or not, it's great that this season, we don't need to be afraid of any team. Last season Wolves and Fulham shat me up, they were just another level (Fulham only after we jump started them though).

It's going to be who's most consistent. There will be games where we just can't break teams down and we draw or even lose, but we're solid enough that we can give it a go against anyone home or away.

Great to be at the top with a point lead though, keep playing our game and getting the wins and it's all in our hands.

I'm wondering whether we can try Woodburn up front behind Leon or alongside McG, to give us those moments of magic. I think that'd suit him more than trying to get a convincing Duffy impression out of him.

 

[SwissBlade]

"its hard to manipulate the stats to show anything other than we deserve to be where we are." bet I know a message board who will try UTB

Exactly! I had a chat with a piggy mate earlier through Facebook Messenger as we'd been talking the other day and he was trying to say that we've only beaten shit sides etc. So when i posted the pic of the league table with the comment "despite what some people say...etc" he said that he'd got to me and was laughing.

I said how can he get to me? We're top of the league having outperformed 23 other teams in a 12 game period. 6 years in League one got to me, a few comments about who we've beaten to go top won't do.

 

[Sheffsteel]

Three points encourage me hugely when comparing this season with last:

1) When we hit the top last season we lost one of our most important players and no one managed to replace him. This season that same player is coming back rather than going out, which leads me to point 2
2) We have made what in my view is one of the most influential and important signings in a very long time. Norwood has been an absolute revelation and has made a huge difference to the team.
3) What happened after we hit the top last season will have been a great education for the whole management team. They will have studied what went wrong and now have the experience to ensure it doesn't happen again. That could be the most important change of all from last season.

Excellent points especially point 3, learning from recent experience.

Another very relevant point is
4: Almost every single player has loads of recent experience being successful in promotion battles, including the management team.
Norwood must be thinking it’s a stroll in the park, 2 years ago he wins promotion from the Championship with Brighton and last year he wins promotion from the Champiomship with Fulham. Even Henderson was heavily involved at the top end of the table last season at Shrewsbury.

So every single player is extremely experienced and able to handle the pressure of being top of the pile.

 

[Beans]

I've seen a few people mention that our defence looks more solid than last season, and in particular that Henderson and Egan are upgrades on Blackman and Stearman. However we have actually conceded more goals than at the same stage last season (10 conceded in 17/18 vs. 13 this season).

What are your thoughts on this? Are we actually giving away fewer chances than last year? Have we just been unlucky with the goals we have conceded? Or is there not actually much difference/improvement in the defence compared with last year?

Good shout, that's probably the one point where I went on personal perception rather than data! From memory we've certainly had a few games recently (Millwall and Preston) where the opposition scored two goals from very few chances - that said, that was our Achilles heel last season too. I'll have to try and look into that in more detail although it might be one for Blades Analytics

Great summary Beans

Out of interest, if Norwood is 8th for pass completion, who is he behind?

Here's the top 10 via Whoscored. Pass % isn't anything to get too excited about by itself, and as you can see there's not exactly much between any of these - probably works out to about 1 misplaced pass per game!



Key Passes per game is much more impressive IMO (a Key Pass is a pass that leads to a shot) - Norwood averages 2.9 per game, next highest is Mason Mount with 2.3. If you're combining accuracy (pass %) with creativity (Key Passes) then only our pal Jack Grealish comes close to combining the two like Norwood does.

 

[bromtom]

Good shout, that's probably the one point where I went on personal perception rather than data! From memory we've certainly had a few games recently (Millwall and Preston) where the opposition scored two goals from very few chances - that said, that was our Achilles heel last season too. I'll have to try and look into that in more detail although it might be one for Blades Analytics

I feel like, while we're still letting goals in (which to be fair, everyone is apart from Boro) we are stronger due to making less mistakes that cost goals. Last season we conceded a fair few I'd say from things like being on the wrong side of a striker, giving away silly free kicks on the edge of the box, passing it to the opposition in a dangerous area etc.

We haven't done that really thus far, closest I can think of post Norwood arriving is JOC being the wrong side of Rhodes against Norwich.

 

[GRUMPY BLADE]

Never really buy this “you’re next 3 games are against teams in the relegation zone so they should all be easy”, especially in the Championship because even the teams at the bottom (like Hull) are half decent.

Acually watching Bristol City toil along with some other outfit on Sunday left me thinking we might only be top of the league because we're only playing against non-league opposition?