Bookies odds

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Cerberus Blade said:
Thanks. I won't rule out consolidation but that word isn't in Wilders vocabulary.

I'm expecting a promotion push because this is the best football I've ever seen a United team play with the best manager.

I can't temper my enthusiasm - I've tried, but I just can't!
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Fine but try not to be disappointed if they don't manage it. That league is very very tough. It's moved on considerably since we were in it and it was tough back then.

Anywhere from 10th - 16th would suit me fine. I would be delirious if we finished higher than 10th.
 



Gimli said:
Bookies odds have no bearing on the likelihood of a Blades promotion. The fans are buzzing after this season and we are a relatively big club in terms of attendances etc so potentially lots of people will back us for promotion (or have done already) the bookies lower the odds to cover themselves.
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probably more indicative of our chances is that we are 7/1 to be relegated on Skybet.

This currently makes us 9th most likely to go down if the odds are right (most likely, 10th when the league 1 playoffs are completed.

Betting on this market is likely to be much less emotional ( a few bitter Wednesday fans notwithstanding), meaning it's a more reflective market IMO
 
Jord_Blade said:
We are a big club. You tell me we aren't and I'll show you a liar.
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Compared to who?
I love United but I'm also willing to accept that there are lots of clubs who have lots of fans and rich histories etc. To be honest I don't really care if the general football fan would consider United to be a big club and it all sounds a bit W*******y to make claims of being a big club with no real justification.
I take your point though x
 
Norderner said:
Not one football club in the country with the shit our fans have had to go through this last 40 years, would get the crowds we got after 6 seasons in that cesspit of a division.
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A few would, Everton, Tottenham, Villa?

How many did Man City used to get?
 
YES Blade said:
My point is no one will be betting on any of those teams when they might not even be in the Championship next season. When they are confirmed in the Championship, people will bet on them and our odds will more than likely lengthen.
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That's not how it works
 
YES Blade said:
Enlighten me then, how does it work?
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The bookies will work out the chances of us gaining promotion. That we didn't know who out of Swansea or Hull would drop, don't know which of the four in the Championship playoffs will go away and which of Bradford/Millwall will join us in promoting is not going to make more than a miniscule difference to our chances of winning promotion. If they've done their maths right on each team then they do not care what money is going on any given team.
 
jt64 said:
The bookies will work out the chances of us gaining promotion. That we didn't know who out of Swansea or Hull would drop, don't know which of the four in the Championship playoffs will go away and which of Bradford/Millwall will join us in promoting is not going to make more than a miniscule difference to our chances of winning promotion. If they've done their maths right on each team then they do not care what money is going on any given team.
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Sorry mate you are totally wrong - bookies do care what money is going on as THAT is what determines the odds -certainly early in the season when no one really knows how a team will perform.
As form gets known then the bookies will alter odds to limit their loss on future money going on favourites by reducing the odds or attract money to less likely winners but always looking at their book risk .
Look at how horse racing betting is done as its all about how much money has been wagered that afffects the odds - the more money backed the odds tumble and conversely not much money wagered means the odds will be higher to attract bets on what apppears to be a loser !
 



jt64 said:
If they've done their maths right on each team then they do not care what money is going on any given team.
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So what do you think is happening in the trading room? Of course odds are altered in accordance with liabilities.

There aren't many old school bookmakers left who will stick to their their opinion and just lay what they believe is correct. These days a lot of it is automated, it's all linked to the exchanges and stuff.
 
I know very little about betting patterns so won't be putting my money on until mid/late July!!. We'll have done our transfer business by then!. 5-1 is a cracking price though and I'm tempted because if we start as we finished last season! The odds will get shorter!!. I might put £50 on now and then another £50 in July!.
 
jt64 said:
The bookies will work out the chances of us gaining promotion. That we didn't know who out of Swansea or Hull would drop, don't know which of the four in the Championship playoffs will go away and which of Bradford/Millwall will join us in promoting is not going to make more than a miniscule difference to our chances of winning promotion. If they've done their maths right on each team then they do not care what money is going on any given team.
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The bookies aren't geniuses who can accurately predict the future. It's not like you're playing a game where they're just really really good at it.

Every bet they take is hedged against every other bet in the same pool such that they make a profit.

They set provisional odds and alter them based on the market.
 
I think SUFC were 5/1 when we were the only confirmed Championship team ;)
 
moDtheGod said:
So what do you think is happening in the trading room? Of course odds are altered in accordance with liabilities.
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I think you underestimate how much money needs to go in on this sort of market to actually shift the odds, particularly when it's easier than ever to offset liabilities without altering your own line, this is a season long bet, it's not like a next manager market where odds plummet if someone puts a tenner on
 
PokerBlade said:
They probably made a killing on Leicester winning the league. Because they always make a killing. Think of how much money will have gone on the favourites at the start of that season.
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True the payouts wouldn't come close to the bets received. As they say the house always wins.
 
jt64 said:
I think you underestimate how much money needs to go in on this sort of market to actually shift the odds, particularly when it's easier than ever to offset liabilities without altering your own line, this is a season long bet, it's not like a next manager market where odds plummet if someone puts a tenner on
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I was disputing your point that they do not care about money coming in.

I have a pretty good understanding of how it works, having worked in the industry for a decade.
 
Sky are still 5s but the market doesn't include Middlesboro, Hull and the 4 play-off teams, all of which, you'd presume, will be shorter odds than us when the dust settles in a couple of weeks. If you're planning to do that bet, I'd hang on.
 
They've updated the odds to include the 3 relegated clubs plus Fulham and another team whose name escapes me and we've only drifted out to 11/2. Given the likes of QPR and Forest, who are towards the bottom of the market are only 9s, it shows what a close division it is, and how little they're giving away.

There'll be better value bets out there in a month or so.
 
Jim Chimmerney said:
There'll be better value bets out there in a month or so.
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There's still Reading/Udders to add in before it can settle down.

As you say, give it a month and once the fixtures are out and some money has gone on other teams, we should be at least 10/1.
 
We're joint 11th favourites to win the league along with Birmingham.
So the bookies think we'll finish mid table.
Wednesday are joint 5th favourites along with Hull, Derby and Wolves.

The 3 least fancied teams, so by definition favourites for relegation are Barnsley, Bolton and Burton.
 
SUFC Handsworth said:
That's not quite correct, they will factor in how much money is being put on promotion by our fans but they will also factor in the chances of promotion on a purely football basis also.
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I think this must be right, based largely on historical performance etc etc , but also with some "expert" opinion.

I've just looked on oddschecker and currently the blades are

  • 9th favourite for promotion at 11/2 (Wednesday not yet in the running)
AND
  • 9th favourite to be relegated at 13/2

Birmingham is the most popular bet for promotion (28% of all bets) but they are only 11/2 with the Blades
Blades are the most popular for relegation (22% of all bets)

So it's clear that the bookies are looking at more than betting patterns in what must be a very thin market
 



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