Random stats - make your own conclusions

[Bladepicker]

I've taken moDtheGod 's half arsed start and run a bit with it...

View attachment 21127

Two things jump out at me: firstly how clinical Scunthorpe are with 40% of on target shots going in and secondly, how miserly Bolton's defence is when they play away from home. They allow more shots than us (11 vs 8.6) but conceded a third of the number of goals per game (0.4 vs 1.4). We are really porous away from home with one in 7 shots at our goal (total, not just on target) going in.

So what we are saying is Bolton hardly concede from any of the shots the opposition have on target.

We really should look to sign the goalkeeper they have played most of the season with.

What was that about lies, damn lies....

 

[Good Pinch Of Snuff]

After a chat with some of our resident nobeards Ollessendro, Balham Blade and BladeInThatcham at the weekend about how wasteful we are in front of goal, I figured I'd look to see if that was anything more than a hunch I had or if it were true.

Here's some random facts and figures, make of it what you will.

Scunthorpe United:
Total chances created - 262 (12.48 chances per game)
Total shots on target - 108 (41.22%; 5.14 per game)
Total goals - 43 (2.05 goals per game)

Median values
Chances - 12
On target - 5
Goals - 2

Range:
Chances - 5 to 20
On target - 2 to 10
Goals - 0 to 5

6.09 chances needed to score 1 goal


Sheffield United:
Total chances created - 306 (14.57 chances per game)
Total shots on target - 128 (41.83%; 6.10 per game)
Total goals - 38 (1.81 goals per game)

Median values
Chances - 15
On target - 5
Goals - 2

Range:
Chances - 5 to 30
On target - 1 to 19 (first and last matches, actually)
Goals - 0 to 4

8.05 chances needed to score 1 goal


Bolton Wanderers:
Total chances created - 227(10.81 chances per game)
Total shots on target - 94 (41.41%; 4.48 per game)
Total goals - 28 (1.33 goals per game)

Median values
Chances - 9
On target - 4
Goals - 1

Range:
Chances - 3 to 23
On target - 0 to 12
Goals - 0 to 4

8.11 chances needed to score 1 goal

Stats correct after 21 league matches for all three sides. All cup games discounted. Source: BBC match reports, with the exception of one of our games which came from Sky.

Edited to add in range.

nice work Sir love a bit of stats

 

[jt64]

Any raw "shots taken" stats that doesn't differentiate between Sharp having a two yard tap-in and Freeman going what the heck from 40 yards are mostly irrelevant

 

[Foxy]

It's possible to write some code to scrape the BBC live text match reports and get shot location data to add to these numbers - I'll be impressed when you do that!

Didn't think they were that accurate to use as a source, but funnily enough, somewhere on my home server I do have the start of such a function

 

[blade too long]

bare stats still dont show details like united have played all the top clubs away from home
I suspect once bolton and scunthorpe have played the majority of the top 10 away their numbers will fall
of united remaining 12 away games only bristol rovers rochdale and posh away are against top half teams

 

[stringjunior]

I'll repost after Thursday night's 7-0 win puts us top if it makes you happy!

8-0

 

[blade.i.am]

8-0

Could have been 9 but for Billy 's missed penalty

 

[BusheyBlade]

8-0

7 would have us level on gd but top on goals scored. But I'll take 8!

 

[raul]

I don't understand any of this!!

So he IS Ollessendro then.

 

[Balham]

Thought I'd post a quick update on this: the last 8 games have been quite interesting if you like your stats:

Last 8 games (which takes in the Christmas period to the start of Feb)

United:
For: Shots 122, on target 43, goals scored 17: conversion 39.5% goals to shots on target
Against: shots 62, on target 25, goals conceded 11: conversion 44% (basically 1 in every 2 shots on target has gone in)

Scunthorpe
For: shots 93, on target 40, goals scored 13: conversion 32.5% goals to shots on target
Against: shots 85, on target 38, goals 12: conversion 31.6%

Bolton
For: shots 103, on target 45, goals scored 13: conversion 28.9% goals to shots on target
Against: shots 61, on target 26, goals 10: conversion 38.5%

I had a look at how that compares to the season overall.
Basically, we have got a lot more clinical (aided hugely by scoring 8 goals from 11 shots on target against Southend and Wimbledon!) but our goals conceded stat has got considerably worse (rising from 28.4% to 44.0%).
Scunthorpe have gone the other way: conversion dropping from 39.8% to 32.5% and goals conceded rising from 23.8% of shots to 31.6%. They've also conceded 12 goals in the last 6 games.
Bolton have come out of their shells somewhat, scoring 1.6 goals per game against 1.2 previously with a very similar conversion (28.9% vs 27.9%). Goals conceded are their issue: they've facing a similar number of shots on target (3.3 vs 3.5 per game) but are conceding double the number of goals (1.3 vs 0.6). Is that sides getting lucky, opposition working them out or are they fading?

 

[SwissBlade]

Thought I'd post a quick update on this: the last 8 games have been quite interesting if you like your stats:

Last 8 games (which takes in the Christmas period to the start of Feb)

United:
For: Shots 122, on target 43, goals scored 17: conversion 39.5% goals to shots on target
Against: shots 62, on target 25, goals conceded 11: conversion 44% (basically 1 in every 2 shots on target has gone in)

Scunthorpe
For: shots 93, on target 40, goals scored 13: conversion 32.5% goals to shots on target
Against: shots 85, on target 38, goals 12: conversion 31.6%

Bolton
For: shots 103, on target 45, goals scored 13: conversion 28.9% goals to shots on target
Against: shots 61, on target 26, goals 10: conversion 38.5%

I had a look at how that compares to the season overall.
Basically, we have got a lot more clinical (aided hugely by scoring 8 goals from 11 shots on target against Southend and Wimbledon!) but our goals conceded stat has got considerably worse (rising from 28.4% to 44.0%).
Scunthorpe have gone the other way: conversion dropping from 39.8% to 32.5% and goals conceded rising from 23.8% of shots to 31.6%. They've also conceded 12 goals in the last 6 games.
Bolton have come out of their shells somewhat, scoring 1.6 goals per game against 1.2 previously with a very similar conversion (28.9% vs 27.9%). Goals conceded are their issue: they've facing a similar number of shots on target (3.3 vs 3.5 per game) but are conceding double the number of goals (1.3 vs 0.6). Is that sides getting lucky, opposition working them out or are they fading?

If only we had some one who could make a graphical representation of this stats grafikhaus

 

[Balham]

If only we had some one who could make a graphical representation of this stats grafikhaus

 

[Rusty view]

The website mentioned on page 1 takes all these stats into account and predicts the tables. It doesn't take into account Blades Fk Up Ability (BFUA).

Looking good but 1 step at a time.

2017/02/05/e-ratings-update-league-1-5-feb-2017/

 

[blade too long]

weve got 9 more points than 3rd place bolton


suck on that one

Ill take our making 15 to 20 chances a game over bolton making 5, especially now theyve lost Clough
and the staff have altered so Hanson is averaging 1 goal per game

 

[grafikhaus]

Any raw "shots taken" stats that doesn't differentiate between Sharp having a two yard tap-in and Freeman going what the heck from 40 yards are mostly irrelevant

Quite agree. 'Possession' is one of the most misunderstood stats going. 'Shots on target'? That could be a soft bobbler that bounces 6 times before the goalie throws his cap on it. I'd rather see a screamer that just flies past the post. I've never seen the value in 'assists'. It's far too capricious to show who actually created the goal. But just because Swiss is desperate for another bout of stats , I give you this. For what it's worth:

 

[moDtheGod]

United
For: Shots 122, on target 43, goals scored 17: conversion 39.5% goals to shots on target
Against: shots 62, on target 25, goals conceded 11: conversion 44% (basically 1 in every 2 shots on target has gone in)

Why are we so wasteful? 122 shots, only 43 on target. The other two manage the same number from far fewer shots.

Due to leaving the country, I've only made it to two games this season so my assessment that we are wasteful (which I've held for quite a lot of the season, not just based on the last few games) is predominantly based on what I hear on Radio Sheffield. Am I being unfair?

Part of the reason I started looking at the numbers in the first place was because I felt were created a lot of chances, probably more than everyone else, but we just take such a low proportion of them.

Are we just Sammon-esque in front of goal? Or are we taking more shitty wasteful Stevie Gee style pot shots from 40 yards? Is there some other reason? Am I just plain wrong?

 

[JohnDenver]

Why are we so wasteful? 122 shots, only 43 on target. The other two manage the same number from far fewer shots.

Due to leaving the country, I've only made it to two games this season so my assessment that we are wasteful (which I've held for quite a lot of the season, not just based on the last few games) is predominantly based on what I hear on Radio Sheffield. Am I being unfair?

Part of the reason I started looking at the numbers in the first place was because I felt were created a lot of chances, probably more than everyone else, but we just take such a low proportion of them.

Are we just Sammon-esque in front of goal? Or are we taking more shitty wasteful Stevie Gee style pot shots from 40 yards? Is there some other reason? Am I just plain wrong?

We're not very clinical. We need twenty efforts to score two. And we often donate a couple of chances to opponents, which tend to be gilt-edged.

It's partly a function of the players we have, and partly down to the fact we dominate games against packed defences that give us little space in the penalty area. This could be where Hanson makes a big impact, as we'll be less reliant on the bounce of the ball or a mistake to get clear sight of goal.

 

[Boxer Blade]

Quite agree. 'Possession' is one of the most misunderstood stats going. 'Shots on target'? That could be a soft bobbler that bounces 6 times before the goalie throws his cap on it. I'd rather see a screamer that just flies past the post. I've never seen the value in 'assists'. It's far too capricious to show who actually created the goal. But just because Swiss is desperate for another bout of stats , I give you this. For what it's worth:

View attachment 23063

Spoil sport

 

[SouthEssexBlade]

Quite agree. 'Possession' is one of the most misunderstood stats going. 'Shots on target'? That could be a soft bobbler that bounces 6 times before the goalie throws his cap on it. I'd rather see a screamer that just flies past the post. I've never seen the value in 'assists'. It's far too capricious to show who actually created the goal. But just because Swiss is desperate for another bout of stats , I give you this. For what it's worth:

View attachment 23063

Looking at that, I would suggest that the amount of time teams spend without the ball, trying to keep us out is making these teams very tired for the last quarter of games, leading to more space, more mistakes and more goals.

 

[rompodebailey]

Thought I'd post a quick update on this: the last 8 games have been quite interesting if you like your stats:

Last 8 games (which takes in the Christmas period to the start of Feb)

United:
For: Shots 122, on target 43, goals scored 17: conversion 39.5% goals to shots on target
Against: shots 62, on target 25, goals conceded 11: conversion 44% (basically 1 in every 2 shots on target has gone in)

Scunthorpe
For: shots 93, on target 40, goals scored 13: conversion 32.5% goals to shots on target
Against: shots 85, on target 38, goals 12: conversion 31.6%

Bolton
For: shots 103, on target 45, goals scored 13: conversion 28.9% goals to shots on target
Against: shots 61, on target 26, goals 10: conversion 38.5%

I had a look at how that compares to the season overall.
Basically, we have got a lot more clinical (aided hugely by scoring 8 goals from 11 shots on target against Southend and Wimbledon!) but our goals conceded stat has got considerably worse (rising from 28.4% to 44.0%).
Scunthorpe have gone the other way: conversion dropping from 39.8% to 32.5% and goals conceded rising from 23.8% of shots to 31.6%. They've also conceded 12 goals in the last 6 games.
Bolton have come out of their shells somewhat, scoring 1.6 goals per game against 1.2 previously with a very similar conversion (28.9% vs 27.9%). Goals conceded are their issue: they've facing a similar number of shots on target (3.3 vs 3.5 per game) but are conceding double the number of goals (1.3 vs 0.6). Is that sides getting lucky, opposition working them out or are they fading?

Yes

 

[I should coco]

Far too sensible a thread but the title looks wrong:
Random stats - make your own conclusions

Surely on this forum it should be:
Random conclusions - make your own stats