Random stats - make your own conclusions

[moDtheGod]

After a chat with some of our resident nobeards Ollessendro, Balham Blade and BladeInThatcham at the weekend about how wasteful we are in front of goal, I figured I'd look to see if that was anything more than a hunch I had or if it were true.

Here's some random facts and figures, make of it what you will.

Scunthorpe United:
Total chances created - 262 (12.48 chances per game)
Total shots on target - 108 (41.22%; 5.14 per game)
Total goals - 43 (2.05 goals per game)

Median values
Chances - 12
On target - 5
Goals - 2

Range:
Chances - 5 to 20
On target - 2 to 10
Goals - 0 to 5

6.09 chances needed to score 1 goal


Sheffield United:
Total chances created - 306 (14.57 chances per game)
Total shots on target - 128 (41.83%; 6.10 per game)
Total goals - 38 (1.81 goals per game)

Median values
Chances - 15
On target - 5
Goals - 2

Range:
Chances - 5 to 30
On target - 1 to 19 (first and last matches, actually)
Goals - 0 to 4

8.05 chances needed to score 1 goal


Bolton Wanderers:
Total chances created - 227(10.81 chances per game)
Total shots on target - 94 (41.41%; 4.48 per game)
Total goals - 28 (1.33 goals per game)

Median values
Chances - 9
On target - 4
Goals - 1

Range:
Chances - 3 to 23
On target - 0 to 12
Goals - 0 to 4

8.11 chances needed to score 1 goal

Stats correct after 21 league matches for all three sides. All cup games discounted. Source: BBC match reports, with the exception of one of our games which came from Sky.

Edited to add in range.

 

[Balham]

I've taken moDtheGod 's half arsed start and run a bit with it...



Two things jump out at me: firstly how clinical Scunthorpe are with 40% of on target shots going in and secondly, how miserly Bolton's defence is when they play away from home. They allow more shots than us (11 vs 8.6) but conceded a third of the number of goals per game (0.4 vs 1.4). We are really porous away from home with one in 7 shots at our goal (total, not just on target) going in.

 

[Revolution]

I've taken moDtheGod 's half arsed start and run a bit with it...

View attachment 21127

Two things jump out at me: firstly how clinical Scunthorpe are with 40% of on target shots going in and secondly, how miserly Bolton's defence is when they play away from home. They allow more shots than us (11 vs 8.6) but conceded a third of the number of goals per game (0.4 vs 1.4). We are really porous away from home with one in 7 shots at our goal (total, not just on target) going in.

I wouldn't mind seeing this data for the whole division. I wonder how much of an outlier Scunthorpe's 39.8% shots to goals is. Intuitively, that sounds high - and hopefully unsustainable. Same for Bolton's shots to goals away from home - that sounds incredible.

 

[stringjunior]

Ooooh, stats. love em. thanks kids

 

[moDtheGod]

I've taken moDtheGod 's half arsed start and run a bit with it...

Some of us have been at work all day!

 

[cooperblade]

A visualisation of your numbers - https://experimental361.com/2016/11/20/scatter-graphics-league-1-19-nov-2016/

It's possible to write some code to scrape the BBC live text match reports and get shot location data to add to these numbers - I'll be impressed when you do that!

One of the possible reasons Scunthorpe are converting more chances than us is that they're making chances in better positions than we are. Obviously a shot on target from 6 yards out is very different to a shot on target from 30 yards out.

Hopefully it's just luck and when their shot conversion rate regresses towards the mean, they'll start slipping down the table.

 

[Balham]

I wouldn't mind seeing this data for the whole division. I wonder how much of an outlier Scunthorpe's 39.8% shots to goals is. Intuitively, that sounds high - and hopefully unsustainable. Same for Bolton's shots to goals away from home - that sounds incredible.

Me neither - the link cooperblade posted is as close as you'll get though given that it's 15 mins per team to do it manually - I'm not a coder. There's also comment in there that Oldham's 21 shots per goal is "double the league average" which would indicate around a 9% shots to goals conversion rate. Assuming that's accurate Scunthorpe's conversion rate is almost double what the rest of the division is producing. That said, means are just indicative and for every side worse than the mean there is normally one equally far on the other side.

It's interesting though that Experimental361 have us down as decent defensively where the stats Mod and I have put together would suggest otherwise. Maybe it's because we don't concede many chances?

Some of us have been at work all day!

Ever reliable for a bite

 

[SwissBlade]

My conclusion (based on information to date) is that with all things considered, Scunthorpe United are able to turn chances into goals and goals into points in a better way than Bolton, who in turn are better than Sheffield United.

I have reflected this in something i've called a league table.

1st Scunthorpe
2nd Bolton
3rd SUFC

I was going to put points and a load of other shit on their like games played, wins, goals etc, but couldn't be arsed.

You're welcome.

 

[8lade]

Seems a bit sketchy, is that southend in 3rd place?

 

[SwissBlade]

Seems a bit sketchy, is that southend in 3rd place?

How much detail do you want? I've just spent all morning on revolutionising football and all you can do is pick (a perfectly reasonable) point...

For Clarity:

SUFC1889 = Sheffield United
SUFC1906 = Southend United

 

[finlaytheblade]

Scunthorpe and Bolton flew out of the traps we had a poor start due to our rebuilding we are playing really well now we have a settled side my money is on us to be too good for the other two.

 

[Grappler]

How much detail do you want? I've just spent all morning on revolutionising football and all you can do is pick (a perfectly reasonable) point...

For Clarity:

SUFC1889 = Sheffield United
SUFC1906 = Southend United

After checking with clever people at Oxford and Cambridge (Oxford United and Cambridge United, that is) they said that for completeness, you should add Scunthorpe United as "another SUFC",, therefore it should read:-

SUFC1889 = Sheffield United
SUFC1899 = Scunthorpe United
SUFC1906 = Southend United

This, of course, does not take into account teams such as Spalding United, Sutton United, Sheppey United, etc.

 

[SwissBlade]

After checking with clever people at Oxford and Cambridge (Oxford United and Cambridge United, that is) they said that for completeness, you should add Scunthorpe United as "another SUFC",, therefore it should read:-

SUFC1889 = Sheffield United
SUFC1899 = Scunthorpe United
SUFC1906 = Southend United

This, of course, does not take into account teams such as Spalding United, Sutton United, Sheppey United, etc.

See, even the reight smart folk are using my almost foolproof identification system

 

[MobileBlade]

After checking with clever people at Oxford and Cambridge (Oxford United and Cambridge United, that is) they said that for completeness, you should add Scunthorpe United as "another SUFC",, therefore it should read:-

SUFC1889 = Sheffield United
SUFC1899 = Scunthorpe United
SUFC1906 = Southend United

This, of course, does not take into account teams such as Spalding United, Sutton United, Sheppey United, etc.

What about Sunderland?

 

[Grappler]

What about Sunderland?

I was only talking about "United's", Sunderland are AFC and not UFC.

 

[MobileBlade]

I was only talking about "United's", Sunderland are AFC and not UFC.

Tell that to Twitter

 

[SwissBlade]

Tell that to Twitter

Sunderland are @SunderlandAFC on twitter

 

[MobileBlade]

Sunderland are @SunderlandAFC on twitter

Unless you wish to do a search through the hashtag in which case they are occasionally #sufc

 

[SouthEssexBlade]

After checking with clever people at Oxford and Cambridge (Oxford United and Cambridge United, that is) they said that for completeness, you should add Scunthorpe United as "another SUFC",, therefore it should read:-

SUFC1889 = Sheffield United
SUFC1899 = Scunthorpe United
SUFC1906 = Southend United

This, of course, does not take into account teams such as Spalding United, Sutton United, Sheppey United, etc.

All named 'United' come after us, so unless otherwise stated it should be assumed people are referring to the original, which makes SwissBlade right in the first place.

 

[SwissBlade]

All named 'United' come after us, so unless otherwise stated it should be assumed people are referring to the original, which makes SwissBlade right in the first place.

I normally am

 

[SouthEssexBlade]

I normally am

Let's not get carried away!

 

[Grappler]

All named 'United' come after us, so unless otherwise stated it should be assumed people are referring to the original, which makes SwissBlade right in the first place.

Not disagreeing there pal, I never said the Swizzler was wrong, just that other "SUFC's" exist, Ours is of course the original and the best.

 

[Blade for Sale]

A fox (let's call him Poshercunt for the anagrammatically minded) is being pursued across open countryside by a hound called, in the same spirit, Untied If Elf Shed (the namer of hounds being the same lunatic who names racehorses).

Poshercunt has been running his little orange arse off for 21 of the 46 furlongs (whatever the fcuk they are) he needs to run to avoid being captured and rendered limb from limb by Untied If Elf Shed. He's never run so fast or so far in his little vulpine life. He's so far ahead of UIES at one stage he can hardly see him, but nonetheless keeps running. Feeling very proud of how well he's doing at keeping the much bigger hound at bay, he swivels his pointed little face backwards only to see a slobbering great dog in a red and white shirt yawning its cavernous dribbling mouth inches from his whiskers.

Statistically speaking, this means he will have been eaten by xmas and shat out by Easter. A further bonus statistic is 17, the number of whiskies I've drunk. Hic.

 

[SouthEssexBlade]

A fox (let's call him Poshercunt for the anagrammatically minded) is being pursued across open countryside by a hound called, in the same spirit, Untied If Elf Shed (the namer of hounds being the same lunatic who names racehorses).

Poshercunt has been running his little orange arse off for 21 of the 46 furlongs (whatever the fcuk they are) he needs to run to avoid being captured and rendered limb from limb by Untied If Elf Shed. He's never run so fast or so far in his little vulpine life. He's so far ahead of UIES at one stage he can hardly see him, but nonetheless keeps running. Feeling very proud of how well he's doing at keeping the much bigger hound at bay, he swivels his pointed little face backwards only to see a slobbering great dog in a red and white shirt yawning its cavernous dribbling mouth inches from his whiskers.

Statistically speaking, this means he will have been eaten by xmas and shat out by Easter. A further bonus statistic is 17, the number of whiskies I've drunk. Hic.

Are you Ollessendro in disguise? If so, stick to stories about your shed before you do yourself an injury!

 

[Rodley]

I don't understand any of this!!

 

[BusheyBlade]

I don't understand any of this!!

Explained simply - after 21 of 46 matches, United are currently 3rd in the league.

 

[Bart the Blade]

This is amazing, however, doesn't consider goals against.

 

[SwissBlade]

Explained simply - after 21 of 46 matches, United are currently 3rd in the league.

keep up

 

[BusheyBlade]

keep up

I'll repost after Thursday night's 7-0 win puts us top if it makes you happy!

 

[Balham]

This is amazing, however, doesn't consider goals against.

Mine does