Transfer strategy

[Kenny Powers]

Ignoring ethics etc.

Looking at the relatively low points deductions, for teams in the Premier league, breaching Financial Fair Play regulations in recent seasons and the assumption that a precedent has now been set, alongside the fact that the 3 promoted teams seem to be relegated with growing regularity.

Is there a case (owners wealth, funding plans and ambition permitting) to just go for it, spend £300+ million (6-10 Prem quality players) on a group of players with good resale value if we got promoted.

Stick in reasonable, yet profitable relegation release clauses and hope for the best.

Worse case scenario, we get relegated, the majority of them leave for a fee that makes them cost neutral or turns a profit, which can be reinvested in the Championship.

Best case scenario, we get a points deduction, but stay up anyway, like Forest and have a much stronger base to build from in the 2nd season onwards.

I'm sure it's far more complex, but is it a valid strategy to give promoted teams a better chance?

UTB

 

[Berkshire Blade]

Let's wait until we go up to worry about it

 

[Kenny Powers]

Let's wait until we go up to worry about it

Absolutely no assumptions here! Same question could be asked, more generally, about any team getting promoted though!

 

[LurkerBlade]

In your scenario I would add.

1) Forest did that and JUST scraped it and are now doing well, the consequences could have been much worse if they were relegated.
2) The only cost isn't just the transfer fees that you probably could get back, it's the huge wages and the continuing wages of the players that hang around. Those wages could see you in more trouble in the championship if you are making a loss and don't get promotion.

 

[LBA_Blade]

We are also assuming we have that type of cash available. Although there was a productive January transfer window in terms of cash spent in the Championship, it doesn't mean that the owners will have £300million available even if that is broken down into the complex contracts terms that is usually x up front plus y and z over so many seasons

 

[dexter101]

Talking generally (not about us) It just seems like too much of a gamble. You say bring in 6-10 PL quality players but Tottenham, Man U, West Ham are a squad made of PL quality players (for the most part...) and they were the sides nearest relegation.

I don't know enough about players but if you took the squads from last years 3 teams who got relegated and this years 3... could you assemble a team of 11 guaranteed PL quality players?

I think the only way we see a side going up and not getting relegated is:
the start in Championship with a side with 6-7 PL quality players (which you assume is a parachute squad who haven't had to have a full rebuild and somehow afford to keep the wages going)
They then add 4 or 5 PL quality players in the summer transfer and they add a few unknowns who they hope might be the difference. Whether that is signings from other sides or through their academy.

What you are then asking is that squad to quickly bond, understand each other and be ready to really tough it out (which is the biggest bit). They have to be prepared for a season of really scraping by and not letting it get to them whilst also being able to nick points consistently.

I don't see Leeds or Burnley still being in the PL at the end of next season unless they spend serious money AND... get lucky

 

[Alex Cheeseright]

Recruitment is key to staying up. But any player that has never played or played very little in the Premier League is a gamble. No matter the costs. You can only hope we find enough players that can gel as a team to get enough points to stay up. A task all 20 teams want. Granted the top few want to win the league and or make a European trophy placing.
Good luck to our recruitment team, management and coaching staff to get it right....and pray.

 

[Uganda Blade]

A simplistic notion, perhaps, but it seems to me that to stay in the Premier League, you have to score goals.
Obviously you need a good defence, but if you don't carry a threat, you've no chance of staying up.
To me, that combination — a stout defence and a threat — should be our strategy.
If we get there.

 

[Houston_Blade]

Looking over the last few seasons it seems that the benchmark to stay up is still 35-40 points. The bottom 3 are adrift this season but Spurs and Man U are on 38 and 39 points respectively. Last season Forest stayed up with 32 but us, Luton and Burnley were shite. Everton stayed up with 36 points the season before, Leeds with 38 before that.

You look at these teams and realistically we aren’t ever going to be able to spend enough money to compete with them over the course of a season apart from Leeds, but we’d be pushing the boat out at that.

Forest and Everton’s gambles have paid off but it could have gone badly wrong. I reckon we’d have to treble last season’s wage bill to be anywhere near competitive, then we have to sign them in the first place, not all will be frees and loans.

Basically it’s broken and without £200m+ for fees and £150m a year for wages the promoted clubs are resigned to yo-yo until they become the next Norwich or West Brom.

 

[Nicolaus_Copernicus]

Should we get promoted (which I think we will), then forget the PL in its complete sense, and just focus on a mini league of 5 teams including the 3 promoted sides, Wolves and another side that has a poor season (possibly Palace due to being over exposed in cup competitions & possibly losing some big names this summer).

The question (if we intend to give staying up a proper attempt), is therefore what do we need to do to be the best/2nd best team in the mini league? Broad brush, I'd say that it's creating a team that will get to 40 points by scoring 40 to 45 goals and conceding no more than 60 to 64 goals.

Spurs: 38 points. 63 & 61
Man Utd: 39 points. 42 & 54
West Ham: 40 points. 43 & 61
Wolves: 41 points. 51 & 64.

Every player currently at the Club and every player that we bring in has to be viewed through this lens. Are they capable of contributing to 40:40:60?

 

[3Cheers4Ramirez]

I'd hate us to spend 200m+ when that sort of money could be spent on unthinkable stadium upgrades and other significant permanent improvements to the club

 

[Snowflake]

In your scenario I would add.

1) Forest did that and JUST scraped it and are now doing well, the consequences could have been much worse if they were relegated.
2) The only cost isn't just the transfer fees that you probably could get back, it's the huge wages and the continuing wages of the players that hang around. Those wages could see you in more trouble in the championship if you are making a loss and don't get promotion.

Forest also bought really good players for small(in PL terms)fees that have give them impetus this season.
We need to find the quality £10m players that Forest bought(eg Hudson Odie) to give us a chance and not expect to spend £40m on a player like MGW.

 

[Balham]

Should we get promoted (which I think we will), then forget the PL in its complete sense, and just focus on a mini league of 5 teams including the 3 promoted sides, Wolves and another side that has a poor season (possibly Palace due to being over exposed in cup competitions & possibly losing some big names this summer).

The question (if we intend to give staying up a proper attempt), is therefore what do we need to do to be the best/2nd best team in the mini league? Broad brush, I'd say that it's creating a team that will get to 40 points by scoring 40 to 45 goals and conceding no more than 60 to 64 goals.

Spurs: 38 points. 63 & 61
Man Utd: 39 points. 42 & 54
West Ham: 40 points. 43 & 61
Wolves: 41 points. 51 & 64.

Every player currently at the Club and every player that we bring in has to be viewed through this lens. Are they capable of contributing to 40:40:60?

It'll be an interesting PL summer because some of the midtable sides are going to see a bit of churn and that mini-league of 5 might end up being one of 5-10. Wolves are going to lose Cunha - will they revert to the first half of this season or have they turned a corner? West Ham's ongoing malaise is amusing and could deepen. Palace, as you point out, might lose one or two of their better players (although I'd be inclined to think they'll stay for the Europa League campaign). Brentford will probably lose Mbuemo and maybe Wissa as well, can Schade and Igor step up consistently? Fulham's squad doesn't have much depth in key areas. FOReST may also struggle to balance European football and the possible loss of Gibbs-White (and Milenkovic, if the top 5 have any sense). Everton are stuck in a doom loop - poor start to the season, change manager, scrape clear; will they finally run out of luck? If Manchester don't win tomorrow, what for them and their finances?

Don't get me wrong, it'll be an incredibly difficult task to stay up...but stranger things have happened.

 

[Kenny Powers]

We are also assuming we have that type of cash available. Although there was a productive January transfer window in terms of cash spent in the Championship, it doesn't mean that the owners will have £300million available even if that is broken down into the complex contracts terms that is usually x up front plus y and z over so many seasons

'Is there a case (owners wealth, funding plans and ambition permitting)'

No assumptions here, completely agree, it's an unknown "what if"

 

[Kenny Powers]

Talking generally (not about us) It just seems like too much of a gamble. You say bring in 6-10 PL quality players but Tottenham, Man U, West Ham are a squad made of PL quality players (for the most part...) and they were the sides nearest relegation.

I don't know enough about players but if you took the squads from last years 3 teams who got relegated and this years 3... could you assemble a team of 11 guaranteed PL quality players?

I think the only way we see a side going up and not getting relegated is:
the start in Championship with a side with 6-7 PL quality players (which you assume is a parachute squad who haven't had to have a full rebuild and somehow afford to keep the wages going)
They then add 4 or 5 PL quality players in the summer transfer and they add a few unknowns who they hope might be the difference. Whether that is signings from other sides or through their academy.

What you are then asking is that squad to quickly bond, understand each other and be ready to really tough it out (which is the biggest bit). They have to be prepared for a season of really scraping by and not letting it get to them whilst also being able to nick points consistently.

I don't see Leeds or Burnley still being in the PL at the end of next season unless they spend serious money AND... get lucky

Agreed, it's a quandary though isn't it? If you don't spend big money, it's almost certain that you go down, if you do, there's a chance that you won't. Doesn't leave clubs with any realistic, sensible option, other than getting very lucky with some gems and building from there (which doesn't seem to be happening anymore)

 

[Kenny Powers]

Looking over the last few seasons it seems that the benchmark to stay up is still 35-40 points. The bottom 3 are adrift this season but Spurs and Man U are on 38 and 39 points respectively. Last season Forest stayed up with 32 but us, Luton and Burnley were shite. Everton stayed up with 36 points the season before, Leeds with 38 before that.

You look at these teams and realistically we aren’t ever going to be able to spend enough money to compete with them over the course of a season apart from Leeds, but we’d be pushing the boat out at that.

Forest and Everton’s gambles have paid off but it could have gone badly wrong. I reckon we’d have to treble last season’s wage bill to be anywhere near competitive, then we have to sign them in the first place, not all will be frees and loans.

Basically it’s broken and without £200m+ for fees and £150m a year for wages the promoted clubs are resigned to yo-yo until they become the next Norwich or West Brom.

Broken is the correct word. Surely this will have to be addressed at some point, if the 3 promoted keep going back down. Essentially becoming a closed shop with a raffle to win a 1 year pass!

 

[Kenny Powers]

Should we get promoted (which I think we will), then forget the PL in its complete sense, and just focus on a mini league of 5 teams including the 3 promoted sides, Wolves and another side that has a poor season (possibly Palace due to being over exposed in cup competitions & possibly losing some big names this summer).

The question (if we intend to give staying up a proper attempt), is therefore what do we need to do to be the best/2nd best team in the mini league? Broad brush, I'd say that it's creating a team that will get to 40 points by scoring 40 to 45 goals and conceding no more than 60 to 64 goals.

Spurs: 38 points. 63 & 61
Man Utd: 39 points. 42 & 54
West Ham: 40 points. 43 & 61
Wolves: 41 points. 51 & 64.

Every player currently at the Club and every player that we bring in has to be viewed through this lens. Are they capable of contributing to 40:40:60?

Agreed, the problem is that means winning 10 games, drawing 10 and only losing 18 (or variations there of, seems like a huge mountain to climb with Championship players, plus whatever finances and FFP allow!

 

[Kenny Powers]

I'd hate us to spend 200m+ when that sort of money could be spent on unthinkable stadium upgrades and other significant permanent improvements to the club

Both would be preferable! I suppose the unknown is how long our new owners are here for, what they intend to invest and where they see the best return.

 

[Nicolaus_Copernicus]

It'll be an interesting PL summer because some of the midtable sides are going to see a bit of churn and that mini-league of 5 might end up being one of 5-10. Wolves are going to lose Cunha - will they revert to the first half of this season or have they turned a corner? West Ham's ongoing malaise is amusing and could deepen. Palace, as you point out, might lose one or two of their better players (although I'd be inclined to think they'll stay for the Europa League campaign). Brentford will probably lose Mbuemo and maybe Wissa as well, can Schade and Igor step up consistently? Fulham's squad doesn't have much depth in key areas. FOReST may also struggle to balance European football and the possible loss of Gibbs-White (and Milenkovic, if the top 5 have any sense). Everton are stuck in a doom loop - poor start to the season, change manager, scrape clear; will they finally run out of luck? If Manchester don't win tomorrow, what for them and their finances?

Don't get me wrong, it'll be an incredibly difficult task to stay up...but stranger things have happened.

Where & why I see Wolves as vulnerable is that they are basically an aging, unbalanced top 6 championship side, propped up by Cunha (15 in 31) & Larsson (13 in 33). That's 28 of 51 that they scored. They'll definitely lose one if not both players. Plus Doherty, Dawson, Semedo and Sarabia, need replacing. Plus, they've had an unrepeatable run of form under the manager, who will go somewhere better/warmer/Liberian if offered.

 

[Nicolaus_Copernicus]

Agreed, the problem is that means winning 10 games, drawing 10 and only losing 18 (or variations there of, seems like a huge mountain to climb with Championship players, plus whatever finances and FFP allow!

I think that you have a big piece of paper on the wall of CW's office, and it reads:

Arsenal (H & A) 0 points
Aston Villa ( H & A) 1 point
Bournemouth (H & A) 3 points
Brentford (H & A) 3 points
Brighton (H & A) 1 point
Burnley (H & A) 6 points
Chelsea (H & A) 1 point
Crystal Palace (H & A) 4 points
Everton (H & A) 3 points
Fulham (H & A) 3 points
Leeds (H & A) 4 points
Liverpool (H & A) 0 points
Man City (H & A) 0 points
Man Utd (H & A) 1 point
Newcastle (H & A) 1 point
Nottingham Forest (H & A) 1 point
Spurs (H & A) 3 points
West Ham (H & A) 3 points
Wolves (H & A) 4 points

TOTAL: 42 points

That's the target.

 

[Westran]

Ignoring ethics etc.

Looking at the relatively low points deductions, for teams in the Premier league, breaching Financial Fair Play regulations in recent seasons and the assumption that a precedent has now been set, alongside the fact that the 3 promoted teams seem to be relegated with growing regularity.

Is there a case (owners wealth, funding plans and ambition permitting) to just go for it, spend £300+ million (6-10 Prem quality players) on a group of players with good resale value if we got promoted.

Stick in reasonable, yet profitable relegation release clauses and hope for the best.

Worse case scenario, we get relegated, the majority of them leave for a fee that makes them cost neutral or turns a profit, which can be reinvested in the Championship.

Best case scenario, we get a points deduction, but stay up anyway, like Forest and have a much stronger base to build from in the 2nd season onwards.

I'm sure it's far more complex, but is it a valid strategy to give promoted teams a better chance?

UTB

On the other end of the range of possibilities you've got Leicester, who have been relegated and charged as of today, it's not worked out and next time they come up they'll probably already have a points deduction to contend with before they've started. Then there's our very own Ndayie Berge gamble. It's potentially worth the risk but if it doesn't come off it could sting you. We successfully gambled but I'm not sure we should keep doing it without balancing the risk, because odds are one day we'll lose out.

Leicester City referred to commission by Premier League over alleged EFL financial breaches

Leicester City are referred to an independent commission by the Premier League for an alleged breach of English Football League financial rules during the 2023-24 Championship season.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Alex Cheeseright]

On the other end of the range of possibilities you've got Leicester, who have been relegated and charged as of today, it's not worked out and next time they come up they'll probably already have a points deduction to contend with before they've started. Then there's our very own Ndayie Berge gamble. It's potentially worth the risk but if it doesn't come off it could sting you. We successfully gambled but I'm not sure we should keep doing it without balancing the risk, because odds are one day we'll lose out.

Leicester City referred to commission by Premier League over alleged EFL financial breaches

Leicester City are referred to an independent commission by the Premier League for an alleged breach of English Football League financial rules during the 2023-24 Championship season.

www.bbc.co.uk

Leicester defence team strategy in court ..." it's not fair so we cheated, get over it your honor, the defence rests!!"