This seasons odds

[davidpinder]

Just been looking at the odds you can get on us for various things what do you think? about right? I am surprised to see Danny Wilson as 2nd favourite to get the boot first.

League winner 8/1 or 9/1 on average (favourite(s) pigs and Huddersfield 5/1)
Promotion 5/2 or 9/4 on average (favourite(s) pig and Huddersfield 6/4)
Relegation 16-25/1 (favourites Yeovil 7/4)
Next manager for boot DW 13/2 (favourite les parry 10/3)
FA Cup 300/1 (Favourites Chelsea 6/1)
League cup 500/1 (Favourites Chelsea 11/2)
JPT 12-16/1 (Favourites Preston 10/1)

 

[super_pig]

>I am surprised to see Danny Wilson as 2nd favourite to get the boot first.
they're not daft those bookies you know

 

[davidpinder]

>I am surprised to see Danny Wilson as 2nd favourite to get the boot first.
they're not daft those bookies you know

But surely he will be given til xmas at least you would expect a few booted out of other clubs by then.

 

[Kenilworth]

Not sure the bookies know how poor we are from those odds.
Only one that makes any sense is the manager for the boot - and only if Wilson starts off with 6-8 defeats in a row, which I cannot see happening as much as I cannot see us setting off like a house on fire.
Having said that I think McCabe will stick by him, get the tin hat on and ride the storm, even if we get off to a shitter. He has no where else to go.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Just been looking at the odds you can get on us for various things what do you think? about right? I am surprised to see Danny Wilson as 2nd favourite to get the boot first.

League winner 8/1 or 9/1 on average (favourite(s) pigs and Huddersfield 5/1)
Promotion 5/2 or 9/4 on average (favourite(s) pig and Huddersfield 6/4)
Relegation 16-25/1 (favourites Yeovil 7/4)
Next manager for boot DW 13/2 (favourite les parry 10/3)
FA Cup 300/1 (Favourites Chelsea 6/1)
League cup 500/1 (Favourites Chelsea 11/2)
JPT 12-16/1 (Favourites Preston 10/1)

League betting at this stage is usually the same every year, play-off losers and relegated teams and the odd big spending team will always occupy the top 5 or 6 in the betting. If you ask everyone on here to predict a top three for the division, most would probably include Huddersfield (as the bookies have) yet there's been a fair few ins and outs there. It will be interesting to see who the pundits go for next week but I'd hazard a guess a few will have us in the top 3.

 

[Sothall_Blade]

Just been looking at the odds you can get on us for various things what do you think? about right? I am surprised to see Danny Wilson as 2nd favourite to get the boot first.

League winner 8/1 or 9/1 on average (favourite(s) pigs and Huddersfield 5/1)
Promotion 5/2 or 9/4 on average (favourite(s) pig and Huddersfield 6/4)
Relegation 16-25/1 (favourites Yeovil 7/4)
Next manager for boot DW 13/2 (favourite les parry 10/3)
FA Cup 300/1 (Favourites Chelsea 6/1)
League cup 500/1 (Favourites Chelsea 11/2)
JPT 12-16/1 (Favourites Preston 10/1)

I don't understand the cup odds. Surely it's easier to win the League Cup than the FA Cup, given that the top teams don't play their first teams in it?

The best odds on there look like 16-1 for the JPT. Much more likely than either promotion or relegation I would say.

 

[Grecian2000]

I don't understand the cup odds either. Add a couple of 00's on the end and it might be nearer the truth.

 

[ghandi]

I don't understand the cup odds either. Add a couple of 00's on the end and it might be nearer the truth.

It doesn't make any difference unless you a contemplating placing a bet on us winning the FA Cup.

 

[Grecian2000]

It doesn't make any difference unless you a contemplating placing a bet on us winning the FA Cup.

If anyone in the known universe has accepted odds as skinny as that then they should simply set fire to the money instead. Indeed they should probably set fire to themselves as they are a danger to society.

 

[SwissBlade]

Wilson has a contract for 3 seasons.... Summer - Autumn - Winter....

Has anyone see my coat?

 

[davidpinder]

League betting at this stage is usually the same every year, play-off losers and relegated teams and the odd big spending team will always occupy the top 5 or 6 in the betting. If you ask everyone on here to predict a top three for the division, most would probably include Huddersfield (as the bookies have) yet there's been a fair few ins and outs there. It will be interesting to see who the pundits go for next week but I'd hazard a guess a few will have us in the top 3.

We do seem to have dropped down in the league odds since they came out, we were 4th favourite and now Charlton are.

 

[blade too long]

still have no idea why Wednesday are being touted as contenders
Megsons not spent a penny , theyve reduced the squad and brought in worse than we have
2 of 5 theyve signed were amongst the dross that fell away badly , and theyve added 2 relegated players ,and bennett whos played 8 games , on loan at palace in the last 2 years
If they are touted as likely champions we must be in contention for a champions league spot

 

[JohnDenver]

still have no idea why Wednesday are being touted as contenders

Don't betting patterns affect the odds? Wendy have a relatively large fan base, so potentially have more people sticking money on them (presumably to win). Thus their prices get shorter.

That's purely speculative bobbins by the way. I'm rather bored at work...

 

[davidpinder]

still have no idea why Wednesday are being touted as contenders
Megsons not spent a penny , theyve reduced the squad and brought in worse than we have
2 of 5 theyve signed were amongst the dross that fell away badly , and theyve added 2 relegated players ,and bennett whos played 8 games , on loan at palace in the last 2 years
If they are touted as likely champions we must be in contention for a champions league spot

Most blades obviously think they are in better shape than us. I set up this pole a few weeks ago.

http://www.s24su.com/showthread.php?23956-Do-you-think-we-will-finish-above-the-pigs

 

[alcoblade]

We do seem to have dropped down in the league odds since they came out, we were 4th favourite and now Charlton are.

I think most would have expected some mug to have taken the likes of Evans off us by now with us replacing them with above carthorse standard players. The longer we're stuck with him and his like, the more our odds would and should stretch. But as Milwall reminded us with Henderson, there's still hope yet.

UTB

 

[moDtheGod]

Don't betting patterns affect the odds?

Eventually, yes. But I doubt anyone has taken any big money at this stage. If one firm took a massive chunk of money today, their odds would would be out of line with the rest of the firms.

Basically, the prices at this stage are formed in much the same way as anyone else forms their opinion. Nobody has a clue how new signings will fare, who will get injured, who will be out of form... so the relegated teams are the obvious starting point, then the play-off losers etc - as pointed out by JC above. Prices will begin to change from the first game onwards.

Grecian: What don't you understand? The probability of us winning the cup is probably in the tens - if not hundreds - of thousands, but who in their right mind would offer you that as a bet? The whole point of bookmaking is to offer odds that don't reflect the true probability, else how would you turn a profit?

 

[blade too long]

bookies cant lose
they can offer 20-1 against any club , knowing theyll make money on the 23 that dont win it

Their pre season rarely gets anywhere near getting it right, they had wednesday and plymouth in the top 4 top bets to win it outright last year
and Bournemouth were every bookies favourite for the drop, but made the play offs

 

[JohnDenver]

bookies cant lose
they can offer 20-1 against any club , knowing theyll make money on the 23 that dont win it

If they did that, I'd put a grand on Leicester to win the league.

 

[davidpinder]

I see DW is now 12/1 to be first manager to get the sack alongside smegson he has been replaced as 2nd favourite by Phil Brown