Camden Blade
Active Member
By The Athletic's usual Blades journalist Richard Sutcliffe. Takes an uncharacteristic pessimistic tone. Too pessimistic for my liking...
theathletic.com
Ten victories. As a rule of thumb, that is what it usually takes to keep a team in the 38-game Premier League.
Doesn’t sound a lot, does it? Win just over a quarter of your fixtures and another hugely lucrative season among the elite beckons. No wonder so many promoted teams arrive at the top table confident of upsetting the odds.
Break things down a little, however, and the picture starts to change.
Sure, you have 38 games to chase those 10 triumphs. But a good chunk of these can be as good as written off before a ball is kicked — especially in the case of those new to the Premier League.
Manchester City, for example, have lost once at home to a newly-promoted club since 2007.
Their record away from their Etihad Stadium home since Pep Guardiola became manager seven years ago isn’t too shabby, either, thanks to an unerring ability to find a way to win that was again in evidence at Bramall Lane on Sunday, as Rodri’s 88th-minute strike finally saw off Sheffield United’s gutsy effort.
Until the stumbles of last season, Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool had also been pretty formidable against teams fresh out of the EFL, while the ‘Big Six’ morphing into the Big Seven thanks to Newcastle United’s post-takeover renaissance hasn’t made life any easier for the rest.
Which makes the work in the summer transfer window following United’s automatic promotion as Championship runners-up all the more mystifying. To recap, eight new signings have arrived — Aston Villa’s Cameron Archer becoming their latest signing on Sunday morning for £18million ($22.6m).
“I would have been more pleased if it had been done before 12pm Friday,” said manager Paul Heckingbottom, who had wanted the 21-year-old forward registered in time to be involved against champions City, only for the negotiations to drag on.
Heading the club’s list of departures since last season are Iliman Ndiaye (Marseille) and Sander Berge (Burnley). Both will be missed, though the £35million banked for selling two players who were into the final year of their contracts did help soften the blow.
It also meant Heckingbottom was able to bring in Coventry City’s Gustavo Hamer and then Archer as replacements.
Much is expected of a player paraded on the pitch before kick-off on Sunday, while Hamer has already shown his class with a goal on debut at Nottingham Forest and followed that up with a disciplined display against City.
The problem is, both players will need time to get fully up to speed, with the season now well underway and that total of 38 opportunities to get those 10 wins steadily ticking down. Ditto plenty of those other new faces, with supporters still waiting for their first glimpses of Auston Trusty and Tom Davies, who may not even be ready to face third-tier visitors Lincoln City in the Carabao Cup second round on Wednesday.
Neither Anis Slimane nor Yasser Larouci, the latter horribly at fault for City’s late winner after coming off the bench, have been considered fit enough to start games.
Of that quartet, only Slimane arrived at the club in July, underlining what a tough hand Heckingbottom has been dealt. The 2023-24 campaign is now three games old but it still feels like pre-season in this corner of South Yorkshire, as signings get to know new team-mates while building up their fitness.
Seasoned observers at Bramall Lane don’t expect this team to be fully up to speed until October.
By then, a little under a fifth of the 38-game campaign will have been played, including an eminently-winnable opening two fixtures against Crystal Palace and Forest, which were both lost.
“How crucial it will be at the end of the season, who knows?,” Heckingbottom said when asked about his side’s slow start.
Next up in the league are an Everton side without a point or goal so far at home in Saturday’s early kick-off.
Fail to get anything against Sean Dyche’s fellow strugglers and there’s a very real prospect of United heading to Fulham on October 7 still on zero points (they play Tottenham Hotspur away, Newcastle at home and West Ham United away between those two fixtures).
No team comes back from being in such a hole after eight matches in a division as demanding as the Premier League.
So, why has it come to this?
United clinched promotion on April 26, with three games of the season still to play. That should have been enough time to formulate a firm plan for the summer window and stick to it.
Instead, the coaching staff returned to work in late June with a firm intention to build things around Ndiaye and Berge on the club’s return to the top flight. That only changed when the edict came down from Heckingbottom’s bosses that those two were to be sold — with record-signing Berge leaving just three days before the new season kicked off to compound matters.
At a club where 14 players are on course to be out of contract next summer — effectively everyone, bar Anel Ahmedhodzic (whose deal runs to 2026) and Rhian Brewster (2025), from the promotion-winning squad — perhaps the inability of the hierarchy to plan ahead with any conviction should not have come as a surprise.
Losing Ndiaye was always going to be a blow. He looked a generational talent last season, the type of player to be talked about for years to come. The hope is Archer, whose move includes a buy-back option for Villa, and £15million Hamer can help fill the creativity void left behind.
Further reinforcements are wanted between now and the deadline on Friday night, with last season’s loanee James McAtee — back at Bramall Lane with City on Sunday, where he was an unused substitute — and Facundo Pellistri of Manchester United having been on the radar for several weeks.
Whether Heckingbottom gets his men remains to be seen. But, again, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that United are leaving it so late.
The club’s owner, Prince Abdullah, has said in the past that the end of the window brings better value for money.
What such thinking fails to take into account is the bedding-in period required with new faces. Even McAtee — a key figure during United’s successful pursuit of promotion last season — will need time, if he does return, to get used to a style of play that has changed since then because the team won’t see as much of the ball in the months ahead as they did in the Championship, a point underlined by their 20 per cent share of the ball against City.
Time, however, is not on United’s side. Not with those winnable matches against Palace and Forest already gone and a genuine six-pointer against Everton approaching fast.
Those 10 wins — a tally only Cardiff City (2018-19) have been relegated from the top flight with over the past decade — feel a long, long way away right now despite the admirable efforts against last season’s treble winners.
Sheffield United paying the price for lack of urgency in the transfer market
Newly-promoted United's summer signings have mostly not been bedded-in yet and after starting with three defeats it is starting to show
theathletic.com
Ten victories. As a rule of thumb, that is what it usually takes to keep a team in the 38-game Premier League.
Doesn’t sound a lot, does it? Win just over a quarter of your fixtures and another hugely lucrative season among the elite beckons. No wonder so many promoted teams arrive at the top table confident of upsetting the odds.
Break things down a little, however, and the picture starts to change.
Sure, you have 38 games to chase those 10 triumphs. But a good chunk of these can be as good as written off before a ball is kicked — especially in the case of those new to the Premier League.
Manchester City, for example, have lost once at home to a newly-promoted club since 2007.
Their record away from their Etihad Stadium home since Pep Guardiola became manager seven years ago isn’t too shabby, either, thanks to an unerring ability to find a way to win that was again in evidence at Bramall Lane on Sunday, as Rodri’s 88th-minute strike finally saw off Sheffield United’s gutsy effort.
Until the stumbles of last season, Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool had also been pretty formidable against teams fresh out of the EFL, while the ‘Big Six’ morphing into the Big Seven thanks to Newcastle United’s post-takeover renaissance hasn’t made life any easier for the rest.
Which makes the work in the summer transfer window following United’s automatic promotion as Championship runners-up all the more mystifying. To recap, eight new signings have arrived — Aston Villa’s Cameron Archer becoming their latest signing on Sunday morning for £18million ($22.6m).
“I would have been more pleased if it had been done before 12pm Friday,” said manager Paul Heckingbottom, who had wanted the 21-year-old forward registered in time to be involved against champions City, only for the negotiations to drag on.
Heading the club’s list of departures since last season are Iliman Ndiaye (Marseille) and Sander Berge (Burnley). Both will be missed, though the £35million banked for selling two players who were into the final year of their contracts did help soften the blow.
It also meant Heckingbottom was able to bring in Coventry City’s Gustavo Hamer and then Archer as replacements.
Much is expected of a player paraded on the pitch before kick-off on Sunday, while Hamer has already shown his class with a goal on debut at Nottingham Forest and followed that up with a disciplined display against City.
The problem is, both players will need time to get fully up to speed, with the season now well underway and that total of 38 opportunities to get those 10 wins steadily ticking down. Ditto plenty of those other new faces, with supporters still waiting for their first glimpses of Auston Trusty and Tom Davies, who may not even be ready to face third-tier visitors Lincoln City in the Carabao Cup second round on Wednesday.
Neither Anis Slimane nor Yasser Larouci, the latter horribly at fault for City’s late winner after coming off the bench, have been considered fit enough to start games.
Of that quartet, only Slimane arrived at the club in July, underlining what a tough hand Heckingbottom has been dealt. The 2023-24 campaign is now three games old but it still feels like pre-season in this corner of South Yorkshire, as signings get to know new team-mates while building up their fitness.
Seasoned observers at Bramall Lane don’t expect this team to be fully up to speed until October.
By then, a little under a fifth of the 38-game campaign will have been played, including an eminently-winnable opening two fixtures against Crystal Palace and Forest, which were both lost.
“How crucial it will be at the end of the season, who knows?,” Heckingbottom said when asked about his side’s slow start.
Next up in the league are an Everton side without a point or goal so far at home in Saturday’s early kick-off.
Fail to get anything against Sean Dyche’s fellow strugglers and there’s a very real prospect of United heading to Fulham on October 7 still on zero points (they play Tottenham Hotspur away, Newcastle at home and West Ham United away between those two fixtures).
No team comes back from being in such a hole after eight matches in a division as demanding as the Premier League.
So, why has it come to this?
United clinched promotion on April 26, with three games of the season still to play. That should have been enough time to formulate a firm plan for the summer window and stick to it.
Instead, the coaching staff returned to work in late June with a firm intention to build things around Ndiaye and Berge on the club’s return to the top flight. That only changed when the edict came down from Heckingbottom’s bosses that those two were to be sold — with record-signing Berge leaving just three days before the new season kicked off to compound matters.
At a club where 14 players are on course to be out of contract next summer — effectively everyone, bar Anel Ahmedhodzic (whose deal runs to 2026) and Rhian Brewster (2025), from the promotion-winning squad — perhaps the inability of the hierarchy to plan ahead with any conviction should not have come as a surprise.
Losing Ndiaye was always going to be a blow. He looked a generational talent last season, the type of player to be talked about for years to come. The hope is Archer, whose move includes a buy-back option for Villa, and £15million Hamer can help fill the creativity void left behind.
Further reinforcements are wanted between now and the deadline on Friday night, with last season’s loanee James McAtee — back at Bramall Lane with City on Sunday, where he was an unused substitute — and Facundo Pellistri of Manchester United having been on the radar for several weeks.
Whether Heckingbottom gets his men remains to be seen. But, again, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that United are leaving it so late.
The club’s owner, Prince Abdullah, has said in the past that the end of the window brings better value for money.
What such thinking fails to take into account is the bedding-in period required with new faces. Even McAtee — a key figure during United’s successful pursuit of promotion last season — will need time, if he does return, to get used to a style of play that has changed since then because the team won’t see as much of the ball in the months ahead as they did in the Championship, a point underlined by their 20 per cent share of the ball against City.
Time, however, is not on United’s side. Not with those winnable matches against Palace and Forest already gone and a genuine six-pointer against Everton approaching fast.
Those 10 wins — a tally only Cardiff City (2018-19) have been relegated from the top flight with over the past decade — feel a long, long way away right now despite the admirable efforts against last season’s treble winners.
