Run-In Table - After Matchday 30

[ucandomagic]

Anybody following my Matchday Graphs threads will know that, before the season started, I had a set of actual results to get us to 90 points for automatic promotion. We have stayed very close to that line - 1 point above it at present. After last week-end's games, there was some debate on the thread as to what we might actually need from here-on in. I said in that debate that, to manage my emotions (!), I work on a very safe estimate of other teams not exceeding 2.5 points per game for the rest of the season. As a result of that debate, I will produce a table - after each Matchday - to show clearly what that means - ie what is the max points that our realistic rivals would get if they achieved that 2.5 points per game, and what that would mean to us.

So the Table below shows that, after Matchday 30 we need to match 89 points, if everybody below gets 2.5 points per game. That means 1.75 points per game for us.

That number of 1.75ppg will be a key monitor, match by match, to see whether we are closing or drifting from our current position.

I will include this Table on the Matchday Graphs threads from now on.



UTB & Slava Ukraini
Wings for Freedom

 

[biggiesablade]

28 points sounds so much. Cheers for the work

 

[blade too long]

I have us finishing in the 88m to 94 points range , and anything above 90 ensuring promotion and if the chasing pack share wins evenly when playing each other and better still draw I think 88 could be enough

I cant see Blackburn norwich or watford getting 2nd as they leak far too many goals, and Millwall and sunderland are too erratic

to me only boro luton and west brom could gather towards 88 or 89 points

 

[Alex Cheeseright]

Who knew promition could be so complicated yet so simple. Nice work

 

[Westran]

So essentially for every 4 games, we need 2 wins, a draw and a loss minimum, 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses

 

[Gareth Kay]

7 wins and 3 draws will do it I think

 

[Blade58]

We have a tougher run in than Boro

But it’s one game at a time tho starting with a positive result tomorrow

 

[ChrisBlade]

Neither Luton nor WBA will get anywhere close to 80+ points. Only Boro are anything to worry about in my view.

 

[Selly]

We have a tougher run in than Boro

But it’s one game at a time tho starting with a positive result tomorrow

We do, but it isn't that much tougher than Boro.

Based on the PPG of the opposition we have to face, where we have to face them, we have the hardest run in in the division from here on in.

Boro have the 5th hardest.

I suspect that both of us might move slightly from those positions after Wednesday.

 

[ThirdGenBlade]

This is great - I don’t need to worry about the detail in the table now, just your required ppg!

So tomorrow night, after all the midweek games, I will just wait for your updated required ppg, and I can then sleep happy until Saturday if it has gone down from 1.75!

Actually, I won’t stop worrying until it hits zero.

Thanks again.

 

[Melbourne Blade]

Nice. I have us collecting a further 26-30 points and Boro 28-32 points.

If we win tmrw though it's surely game over

 

[Harry's Game]

10 wins out of 16 is eminently doable. That’s 91 points and good night

 

[ancientblade]

7 wins 2 draws should do it yes boro have an easier run in than us but cant see them getting to 84 points

 

[MunXy]

What we need to do, is win the next game, then win the one after that etc etc.
Cliche I know, but why worry about 5 games time, by then we could be another 12 points clear or have been hauled back.
We shouldn't worry about whose doing what behind us, just keep doing what we are doing.
By the time Burnley play on Saturday we could be 2 points behind them, or still 8 having played 1 more game.
1 game at a time is the way to look at it.
UTB.

 

[Northyorksblade]

You've forgotten to factor in the points deduction we get when the takeover inevitably falls through and we can't afford to pay players.
#supremelypessimisticBlade

 

[MJM]

Really enjoy these graphs and tables!

Stellar work as always ucandomagic

 

[brownblade]

Anybody following my Matchday Graphs threads will know that, before the season started, I had a set of actual results to get us to 90 points for automatic promotion. We have stayed very close to that line - 1 point above it at present. After last week-end's games, there was some debate on the thread as to what we might actually need from here-on in. I said in that debate that, to manage my emotions (!), I work on a very safe estimate of other teams not exceeding 2.5 points per game for the rest of the season. As a result of that debate, I will produce a table - after each Matchday - to show clearly what that means - ie what is the max points that our realistic rivals would get if they achieved that 2.5 points per game, and what that would mean to us.

So the Table below shows that, after Matchday 30 we need to match 89 points, if everybody below gets 2.5 points per game. That means 1.75 points per game for us.

That number of 1.75ppg will be a key monitor, match by match, to see whether we are closing or drifting from our current position.

I will include this Table on the Matchday Graphs threads from now on.

View attachment 153894

UTB & Slava Ukraini
Wings for Freedom

Perhaps it'd be better to say "Unlikely max points" on your new table COYB

We really are in the territory of only needing to win about half our games, aren't we. What could go wrong eh?!

 

[BarcaBlade]

We have a tougher run in than Boro

But it’s one game at a time tho starting with a positive result tomorrow

I'm not taking any chances. I've wet the bed already just in case we don't win tonight. Prefer to plan these things than to feel I have no control.

 

[ancientblade]

We have a tougher run in than Boro

But it’s one game at a time tho starting with a positive result tomorrow

we do have a tougher run in than boro but were 10 points clear of em with a game in hand 13 points if we beat em tonight plus they will be playing teams scrapping for their lives at the bottom of the table they can be very tricky games

 

[RossoDeltic]

I can't see anything in the comments above referencing a thread in the past about the 'magic number'. Some had a thread going with the points we needed to secure promotion. Not sure which season it was.
Always makes for interesting reading for number/stats geeks like me.

 

[Wapping Blade]

I can't see anything in the comments above referencing a thread in the past about the 'magic number'. Some had a thread going with the points we needed to secure promotion. Not sure which season it was.
Always makes for interesting reading for number/stats geeks like me.

I did a spreadsheet for this yesterday

Simplistically (without taking into account head to heads), it’s actually Luton who can get the most points (97) excluding us and Burnley, Boro 96.

Therefore for guaranteed promotion we need another 37 points from 16 games.

As you can see, it’s a bit early for magic number as there are a lot of games and points left.

 

[BarcaBlade]

I'm not taking any chances. I've wet the bed already just in case we don't win tonight. Prefer to plan these things than to feel I have no control.

Big advantage. It's already dry. Off to sleep, comfortable in the knowledge that the Blades have moved 7 points clear of 3rd place this evening.