Luck

[matth]

What is it with people apportioning blame for our current situation on 'luck'?

Perfectly rational people - many of whom castigate others for believing in God or other such unproven spiritual phenomena - will nontheless talk about this 'luck' thing as though it is solid, scientific fact.

The actual fact is that we're not unlucky. We're shit. We are lacking in tactical direction, in nous and cuteness, in confidence, in leadership, in positioning, in reactive ideas, and in application of talent. One thing we're not lacking in - because it doesn't exist - is luck.

We're not the subject of some gypsy curse. Our stadium isn't - to the best of my knowledge - built on an ancient burial ground. The expression 'you make your own luck' is kind of true, but only because it's just another way of saying 'if you're shit, you don't do well'.

If we're going to be discussing luck as though it's got any bearing whatsoever on our current standing, I'm going to start discussing the effect of little green men on why we can't keep a clean sheet. It's got about as much grounding in reality.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

Generally you're right but you can't deny that the key moment in last night's game was a huge slice of luck for them, or bad luck for us, whichever way you look at it.

Blackwell was clearly barking up the wrong tree when he said we had no luck at Blackpool but last night, and the 1st goal v Cardiff to a lesser extent were things that you end up shaking you're head in disbelief at. We've seen it all before, when you're down, these things tend to go against you and when you're on a roll, they go for you. it's not an excuse, just life

 

[Pierre's PC]

was it tactical for Taylor to send his initial shot wide so that it hit morgan (who taylor knew was going to turn away from the ball) at just the right position on his body to deflect the ball just enough for it to nestle neatly in to the opposite corner of the goal...

You can perhaps blame morgan for turning his back on the ball, but i'll tell you what if taylor ment to score like that he has a greater grasp of physics than I could give him credit for...

Of course it could just have been luck...oh wait!

 

[matth]

It wasn't luck, it was the serendipitous (for NUFC) coming together of several factors:

1. Kyle Walker was playing silly buggers in a danger zone
2. Kevin Nolan took a risk by taking him out, but got the ball as well as the man - seen them given, seen them not, usually dependent on the caprices of the referee
3. We stood around waiting for a free kick, despite none being forthcoming
4. They took advantage of this, and as Morgan was distracted he could only outstretch his leg to try to get the ball - instead it deflected off and went in the goal.

Nothing lucky or unlucky about it. Just a collection of poor decisions. Not that I'm blaming Morgan there.

 

[Santos]

What is it with people apportioning blame for our current situation on 'luck'?

Perfectly rational people - many of whom castigate others for believing in God or other such unproven spiritual phenomena - will nontheless talk about this 'luck' thing as though it is solid, scientific fact.

The actual fact is that we're not unlucky. We're shit. We are lacking in tactical direction, in nous and cuteness, in confidence, in leadership, in positioning, in reactive ideas, and in application of talent. One thing we're not lacking in - because it doesn't exist - is luck.

We're not the subject of some gypsy curse. Our stadium isn't - to the best of my knowledge - built on an ancient burial ground. The expression 'you make your own luck' is kind of true, but only because it's just another way of saying 'if you're shit, you don't do well'.

If we're going to be discussing luck as though it's got any bearing whatsoever on our current standing, I'm going to start discussing the effect of little green men on why we can't keep a clean sheet. It's got about as much grounding in reality.

I would say our recent run of results isn't down to being unlucky alone, or even mostly unlucky, but when Taylor hits an average shot which is going wide/down Bennett's throat then hits our centre back who in the fashion of Curtis Woodhouse against The Pigs twists and the ball goes into the other, I think it's fair to say lady luck played her part last night.

I also think Harper didn't know a great deal about Henderson's header at the death.

 

[spadge]

got ball as well as man he got just the man i dont believe in this luck crap but i dont think we was crap, take quinn out of the team n i thought we played well.

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

It wasn't luck, it was the serendipitous (for NUFC) coming together of several factors

doesn't 'serendipity' involve gaining from fortune ? By default, doesn't that mean we suffered misfortune ?

 

[SwissBlade]

Partly agree. But unfortunately football is not an exact science, other factors are at work on the football pitch.

The perception of luck/ fortune/ chance can be mitigated against to an extent through science. For example, players warm up in a way proven by science to minimise the risk of "bad luck" such as Hamstring pulls and the players are trained to their peak fitness to minimise the chance of injury.

But the other factors like where the ball is played, approach to the ball, deflections, opposition players positioning are difficult to plan, hence the game we love being so unpredicable.

There are also other factors such as the weather, the pitch, phantom beach balls and balloons blowing across the pitch etc.

There are also some instances where poor decision making come into it, from players, managers and coaches. If Walker'd passed the ball then he wouldn't have got clattered by Nolan, the ball wouldn't have dropped to Taylor and his shot wouldn't have deflected off Morgs. So perhaps here we can make our own luck to an extent

But then there is the final factor, the ref, linesman and 4th official. They all play their part, they all make decisions which are out of our hands. Sometimes, naturally they are influenced by the crowd, for good and bad

When teams aren't evenly matched then luck doesn't really play a part as much, but when teams are evenly matched then a single piece of luck/ fortune/ misfortune are magnified.

So yes some things are down to being shite and some are just bad/ good luck.

 

[matth]

doesn't 'serendipity' involve gaining from fortune ? By default, doesn't that mean we suffered misfortune ?

You've got me there

The ridiculous concept of 'luck' is so ingrained, both linguistically and emotionally, that it's incredibly difficult to not use it when talking about anything. I still stand by my original point though, and used 'serendipitous' to indicate that it was a number of actual real things (as opposed to imaginary 'luck') that led to an outcome that was more in their favour than ours.

The trouble with assigning things to luck is that it allows those who should be accountable to shirk responsibility for their actions. Everything has a cause - things don't just happen out of sheer chance.

 

[judge]

luck isnt the reason newcastle won last night

it was due to scandalous refereeing

really starting to believe that the establishment have got it in for us

i was totally behind the tevez court case ,but it looks like it has done us more harm than good

people will always throw it back in our face every time one of our players is involved in an unsavoury incident

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

You've got me there

The ridiculous concept of 'luck' is so ingrained, both linguistically and emotionally, that it's incredibly difficult to not use it when talking about anything. I still stand by my original point though, and used 'serendipitous' to indicate that it was a number of actual real things (as opposed to imaginary 'luck') that led to an outcome that was more in their favour than ours.

The trouble with assigning things to luck is that it allows those who should be accountable to shirk responsibility for their actions. Everything has a cause - things don't just happen out of sheer chance.

Yep, of course if Kyle had passed the ball rather than try and go through 4 of their players it would never have happened but no-one can convince me, scientfically or otherwise, that it wasn't a lucky goal

but, as Taylor himself said last night, if you don't shoot, you don't score.

 

[TonyAgana]

Luck is simply a term we all use day-in-day-out to give a label to our experiences with favourable and unfavourable laws of probability - which do exist.

Tell a mate you're going to flip a coin three times and get heads at least twice. Do it, you're lucky. Don't, you're unlucky.

 

[oldblade]

It wasn't luck, it was the serendipitous (for NUFC) coming together of several factors:

1. Kyle Walker was playing silly buggers in a danger zone
2. Kevin Nolan took a risk by taking him out, but got the ball as well as the man - seen them given, seen them not, usually dependent on the caprices of the referee
3. We stood around waiting for a free kick, despite none being forthcoming
4. They took advantage of this, and as Morgan was distracted he could only outstretch his leg to try to get the ball - instead it deflected off and went in the goal.

Nothing lucky or unlucky about it. Just a collection of poor decisions. Not that I'm blaming Morgan there.

I agree with most of what you've said. However, the goal was very lucky/unlucky, depending on whether you are Newcastle or us.

The shot took a huge deflection. The fact that it hit Morgan's leg was not lucky/unlucky as Morgan was clearly trying to block the shot. But the fact it deflected into the goal was very unlucky for us. It could have gone anywhere, but it didn't. It crept inside the post with Bennett totally wrong footed. If Taylor hit that shot in exactly the same circumstances another 20 times it would probably not end up in the goal.

 

[davidpinder]

Yep, of course if Kyle had passed the ball rather than try and go through 4 of their players it would never have happened but no-one can convince me, scientfically or otherwise, that it wasn't a lucky goal

but, as Taylor himself said last night, if you don't shoot, you don't score.

still think it was a foul anyway weather the ref thought he got the ball or not he got kyle first

 

[Jim Chimmerney]

still think it was a foul anyway weather the ref thought he got the ball or not he got kyle first

I completely agree with what most people have said since, it looked a clean challenge at the time, especially from the angle the ref saw it from.

 

[Ollessendro]

Don't agree with everything you say Matt, but agree with the overall sentiment. We can't blame losing last night on luck.

Henderson's shocking headed miss in the last minute was not unlucky. Also the same culprits low drive in the first few minutes was not unlucky. Nor was there are anything unlcuky about Treacy's poor effort in the last few minutes. There certainly wasn't anything unlcuky about Treacy's shooting (shit was more the word I'd go for).

There goal had an element of luck to it, yes. Lucky deflection. However, as Matt points out it was piss poor defending. Walker got caught out and we didn't play to the whistle. But we only have ourselves to blame for losing. Not luck. We missed an absolute bucket load of chances. Despite dominating the game we rarely tested Harper and then the golden opportunities we did, we didn't make him work hard enough. I've seen on here the quote that 'Harper made 2 world class saves'. Bollocks! Treacy and Henderson should have both scored, but if Harper had have let eith goal in then the visiting fans (and himself) would have been very disappointed. I keep harping on about it, but Henderson's headed miss was criminal. It was not a wonder save! Decent reaction save yes. But it was straight at him! If that ball had gone in then then we would have been counting ourselves lucky after poor keeping.

 

[Kev Gee]

So its just bad luck that weve ended up with a squad full of Loanees & over the hill journeymen? And there was me thinking it had something to do with the two Kevins.

 

[judge]

So its just bad luck that weve ended up with a squad full of Loanees & over the hill journeymen? And there was me thinking it had something to do with the two Kevins.

might be something to do with the wage budget as well

 

[beightonblade]

It were a reight bit of luck gettin cheap as chips after F10pp0.

 

[judge]

It were a reight bit of luck gettin cheap as chips after F10pp0.

he kept us up and then took us to the play off final didnt he ?

no ,youre right he is rubbish ,even if his stats say he is the most succesfull blades manger ever

doesnt mean owt does it ?

 

[beightonblade]

he kept us up and then took us to the play off final didnt he ?

no ,youre right he is rubbish ,even if his stats say he is the most succesfull blades manger ever

doesnt mean owt does it ?

Who's going to keep us up this time ?

as for most succesfull manager ever yer havin a laugh !
the silly two hat aint gud enuff to lace John Harris's shoes.

 

[judge]

statiscally he is better and john harris was before i was even a blade

should we compare every manager to john harris ? football has changed a little bit since then you know

 

[matth]

he kept us up and then took us to the play off final didnt he ?

no ,youre right he is rubbish ,even if his stats say he is the most succesfull blades manger ever

doesnt mean owt does it ?

And then he lost in the playoff final, leaving us in the mess we're in now.

Warnock got us promoted. That makes him a better manager in my opinion.

 

[Fiery Blade]

Its not about comparison
They say you are only as good as your last match!
Our record is abysmal over the past seven matches 2points from a possible 21
We have lost five matches out of the last seven
We have lost the last four matches on the bounce!
Yes we have played a little better in the last two matches but still lost both matches both at home.
Last years record counts for nothing ask Leeds what happened the year after they got to the CCC playoff final under Blackwell and they have been in League One since

 

[beightonblade]

he's that good ........ cheap as chips is the bookies favourite for the next Championship manager to get the boot ! (5-2)

 

[judge]

it will be great if we do wont it ? then you can all start attacking the next manager cant you ?

cant remember a manager at bdtbl who was ever good enough for our support

even in the promotion season most of you were slagging warnock off

robson got booed ,blackwell isnt good enough

does anyone see a common theme here ?

 

[Sheffield-Bl4de]

It were a reight bit of luck gettin cheap as chips after F10pp0.

With the current rise in food prices, you're very soon going to be fucked.

 

[judge]

oh and does anyone remeber people fighting on the kop when basset was in charge ?

supporting united is a waste of time ,the fans will always drag the club down

 

[beightonblade]

it will be great if we do wont it ? then you can all start attacking the next manager cant you ?

cant remember a manager at bdtbl who was ever good enough for our support

even in the promotion season most of you were slagging warnock off

robson got booed ,blackwell isnt good enough

does anyone see a common theme here ?

aye we've had sum reight shite managers.............. and McCabe the savior all the money spent (wasted) and look where we are ! same place as the pisspot pigs !

 

[judge]

aye we've had sum reight shite managers.............. and McCabe the savior all the money spent (wasted) and look where we are ! same place as the pisspot pigs !

do you think mccabe just trys to appoint managers who the fans wont like ? or maybe its conceivable that our fans dont like anyone who manages the club