Graphs Before The World Cup Break – Our Best Champ Start Since 05/06

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ucandomagic

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I left this until after the Burnley v Blackburn game so that I could include the complete League Table at the break.

I took the opportunity to review our Championship starts in recent history – our results since we were relegated from the Premier League under Bassett in 93/94.

This is our 21st season in the Championship (second tier) since 93/94, and our equal 3rd best points total after 21 games. Only Warnock 05/06 (46 points) and Kendall 96/97 (39 points) have beaten our current 38 points after 21 matches. Spackman 97/98 was equal on 38. Both of Wilder’s Championship seasons were on 37 points after 21 matches.

I didn’t want to make the graph too complex so Graph 1 shows this season against just a few of our most recent (since 05/06) successful seasons.

Graph 1:
Our Best Recent Champs - Matchday 21.jpg

So for Hecky doubters, to put this season’s current record in context, it has only been beaten twice in our 21 Championship seasons since the Premier League (big money) era started, and is ahead of both of Wilder’s seasons.


Graph 2
is my usual graph, comparing where we are to my benchmark results for each game to achieve an automatic promotion or a playoff season. You can see from Graph 2 that we are now back to just 3 points behind the Autos Certain line, and are now 5 points ahead of my Playoff Certain results.

I think we’d all have taken this at the start of the season.

Graph 2:
Paths To The Prem Matchday 21.jpg



Finally, the current League Table. A solid second place, with a 2 point gap to 3rd and a 7 point gap to 7th, with a team ravaged by injuries and forced to juggle formations and use multiple players out of position to cope. I think the Cardiff game exemplified the spirit that has carried us through.

Interestingly we are averaging 1.8 points in both home matches and away matches, although this is probably just because the teams that we've played away have generally been much lower in the table than the teams that we've played at home.

Also, you can see that the 2 teams that we haven't played at all yet are Udders (bottom) and Wigan (3rd bottom) - so our first games back after the World Cup are against the bottom team and then the 3rd bottom team.

League Table:
League Table.jpg


Hopefully, we will come back in December fit and firing on all cylinders, with Iliman even more inspired by training and playing alongside some world-class strikers.

Let's get 2 W's against Udders and Wigan, go top at the end of the first half of the season (23 games) and just stay there until the end of the season!

UTB & Slava Ukraini
 



So for Hecky doubters, to put this season’s current record in context, it has only been beaten twice in our 21 Championship seasons since the Premier League (big money) era started, and is ahead of both of Wilder’s seasons.
The big worry for me is that in all of those great starts you've listed, we only got promoted twice :oops:

so our first games back after the World Cup are against the bottom team and then the 3rd bottom team.

What could go wrong 🤷‍♂️
 
*too

Sorry, I couldn’t stop myself. If others were to too see two, when the two should be too, they too would be quick to reply too?
But maybe only two people would spot it.
 
I thought I would have a look at how we did points-wise over the last 25 games in each of our seasons at this level.

Anything like the top 6 seasons below and we go up automatically I think. It's quite surprising how we've hardly ever had a really bad second half of the season, the only time we have was the disastrous 2010/11:

1668423184569.png
 
I remember in the summer of 2018 being very comfortable with the second half of 17/18 and how we were learning for the next season

Shows how sometimes it really is worth getting up out of bed and going to the toilet, instead of staying put and getting the sheets all wet.
 
44 points puts us on 82 - that's a long way short of being certain to go up.
That may be true, however I don't think Blackburn will stay up there and we have a 5 point cushion on the rest. So for 82 not to be enough then someone from Watford down would need to get 50+ points in the last 25 games. No-one seems likely to do that for me, unless January changes things.
 
If we carry on averaging 1.8 points / game then we will finish on 83 points.
Enough to finish 3rd.

To finish 2nd we will need to be closer to the 90 point mark.
Improvement required but you'd hope(!) our squad can only get stronger from here.
 
*too

Sorry, I couldn’t stop myself. If others were to too see two, when the two should be too, they too would be quick to reply too?
Took all my strength not to comment on it, honestly. I really felt like I'd grown as a person when I didn't.
 
If we carry on averaging 1.8 points / game then we will finish on 83 points.
Enough to finish 3rd.

To finish 2nd we will need to be closer to the 90 point mark.
Improvement required but you'd hope(!) our squad can only get stronger from here.
You'd hope our injuries should be a little friendler second half of the season.... SURELY!?

General consensus would have Bogle and Berge as two of our most threatening offensive players. Hopefully they'll be available for 90% of remaining matches.

A fairly settled back 3 (or 5) would be a real luxury as well and could only help to stop some of the poorer goals.

A lot of IFs of course. I really fancy us to win the league, unless (a) injuries or (b) Burnley buy some better defenders and a quality "striker".
 
I remember in the summer of 2018 being very comfortable with the second half of 17/18 and how we were learning for the next season

Shows how sometimes it really is worth getting up out of bed and going to the toilet, instead of staying put and getting the sheets all wet.
As my 4 year old son told me recently after pissing the bed "but dad, I don't mind being wet with wee wee"
 



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