Chances vs Bradford

[Bergen Blade]

I don't always trust managers (or fans!) when they talk about the amount of chances their teams have created and how unlucky they were not to win games. So, having heard Nigel Clough say that we had enough chances yesterday to win a couple of games, I wanted to check if that was true.


Blades chances:

1st half:

7' Goal. Murphy after low McMahon cross (1/1)
13' Paynter shot blocked, following long free kick (1/2)
13' Baxter slices over McMahon shot/pass (1/1)
23' Maguire header from corner (1/2)
39' Goal. Maguire header from corner (1/1)
42' Baxter header from Flynn cross (1/2)
45' Baxter turn and shot (1/2)
46' Murphy's effort blocked after corner is headed down (1/1)

2nd half:

47' McGinn airshot from Flynn cross (1/1)
53' Paynter + Baxter almost connects to McMahon cross (1/1)
67' McGinn shot saved, through ball from Flynn (1/1)
68' Maguire header from corner (1/2)
69' Baxter shot blocked after Murphy low cross (1/1)
69' Murphy shot blocked after cutting inside (1/2)
73' Maguire and Collins headed efforts from free kick (1/2)
74' Collins shot after chaos in box (1/1)
74' Flynn shot blocked (1/2)
75' McGinn lob is saved (1/2)
87' Flynn shot with goalkeeper out of position (1/1)


Bradford chances:

1st half:

2' Hanson header from free kick (1/2)
8' McLean through after Hanson flick on, Maguire blocks (1/1)
8' Header after corner (1/2)
10' Header hit bar
10' Baxter saves on line (1/1)
11' Free header after corner (1/2)

2nd half:

49' McLean can't convert cross 5 yards out (1/1)
55' Goal, deflected long shot (1/2)
62' Goal, free kick parried by Long, goes in via Collins shin (1/1)


Results:

Blades

Real chances: 10
Half chances: 9


Bradford

Real chances: 5
Half chances: 4​

Conclusion:

I think Clough was right in saying his team created enough to have won a couple of matches. With a normal goal:chance ratio of 1:4 we could well have scored four, maybe five goals. Bradford had their chances as well though and I don't think they were lucky to score a couple.

I think we were too defensively set up vs Walsall and Notts County. Yesterday was definitely a step in the right direction. I hope we stick with the attacking mentality, as with similar performances, we will get results.

 

[Gavlar]

good points Bergen, its encouraging that we're creating lots of chances but the biggest problem is still having a goal scorer in the team. top scorer is our centre half, we haven't addressed this since losing blackman and im worried at the goals we are conceding.

 

[UnitedBlade]

That was my impression of the game that we created more and better chances than we have for a while.

We deserved to win but of course the only thing that matters is the result.

Can we grind out 6 or 7 wins from our remaining games ?

We can if we maintain this form. We should aim to create that number of chances every game as a minimum. If we do I think we'll be OK.

The big plus for me is that Flynn and Murphy now look confident that they can take on a man and beat them. They mustn't slip back to their old ways.

We'll create more with Paynter than van Portsie.

I'd still like another couple of players in and of course the squad cannot cope with injuries to key players.

UTB

 

[Rodley]

I don't always trust managers (or fans!) when they talk about the amount of chances their teams have created and how unlucky they were not to win games. So, having heard Nigel Clough say that we had enough chances yesterday to win a couple of games, I wanted to check if that was true.


Blades chances:

1st half:

7' Goal. Murphy after low McMahon cross (1/1)
13' Paynter shot blocked, following long free kick (1/2)
13' Baxter slices over McMahon shot/pass (1/1)
23' Maguire header from corner (1/2)
39' Goal. Maguire header from corner (1/1)
42' Baxter header from Flynn cross (1/2)
45' Baxter turn and shot (1/2)
46' Murphy's effort blocked after corner is headed down (1/1)

2nd half:

47' McGinn airshot from Flynn cross (1/1)
53' Paynter + Baxter almost connects to McMahon cross (1/1)
67' McGinn shot saved, through ball from Flynn (1/1)
68' Maguire header from corner (1/2)
69' Baxter shot blocked after Murphy low cross (1/1)
69' Murphy shot blocked after cutting inside (1/2)
73' Maguire and Collins headed efforts from free kick (1/2)
74' Collins shot after chaos in box (1/1)
74' Flynn shot blocked (1/2)
75' McGinn lob is saved (1/2)
87' Flynn shot with goalkeeper out of position (1/1)


Bradford chances:

1st half:

2' Hanson header from free kick (1/2)
8' McLean through after Hanson flick on, Maguire blocks (1/1)
8' Header after corner (1/2)
10' Header hit bar
10' Baxter saves on line (1/1)
11' Free header after corner (1/2)

2nd half:

49' McLean can't convert cross 5 yards out (1/1)
55' Goal, deflected long shot (1/2)
62' Goal, free kick parried by Long, goes in via Collins shin (1/1)


Results:

Blades

Real chances: 10
Half chances: 9


Bradford

Real chances: 5
Half chances: 4​

Conclusion:

I think Clough was right in saying his team created enough to have won a couple of matches. With a normal goal:chance ratio of 1:4 we could well have scored four, maybe five goals. Bradford had their chances as well though and I don't think they were lucky to score a couple.

I think we were too defensively set up vs Walsall and Notts County. Yesterday was definitely a step in the right direction. I hope we stick with the attacking mentality, as with similar performances, we will get results.

Typical clapper nonsense - A post based on *facts*, backed up by *evidence* with rational and detailed *analysis*. No mention of how shit Doyle is, nor that the Prince is obviously a hologram projected from McCabe's evil lair in Brussels. We were utter shite yesterday and if I post it over and over again it must be true.

 

[JohnDenver]

While I wouldn't reduce football to numbers, I'm quite willing to accept the science when it matches my own half baked, alcohol addled prejudices. Respect professor Bergen.

 

[sitwell]

Can someone show this to Deadbat ?

 

[moDtheGod]

Can someone show this to Deadbat ?

And also BladeInThatcham. Take note, nob eard.

 

[Woodwardfan]

Worthy OP, thanks for the effort!

Added to those statistics were any number of occasions when Murphy, Flynn and McMahon strode into the box from out wide and didn't quite find a man with the ball across. Very encouraging that they got into those positions but we should have created real chances.
We did regularly have numbers in the box for a change, first time in years actually, and that was so refreshing.
The next stage is for wingers to keep a cool head and strikers to create that bit of space and the two getting on the same wave length. The balls across were all a bit hopeful rather than clinical.
Porter never shows, Baxter usually drops back to the penalty spot, Miller - I'm not sure what he does. Let's hope Paynter has the knack. In actual fact Cresswell at least used to be there for the brave bundle into the net from a yard out.
Sign a goalscorer and play this positively and we'll be OK. Personally I can't help thinking Taylor would have thrived with this sort of service.

 

[Bergen Blade]

Worthy OP, thanks for the effort!

Added to those statistics were any number of occasions when Murphy, Flynn and McMahon strode into the box from out wide and didn't quite find a man with the ball across. Very encouraging that they got into those positions but we should have created real chances.
We did regularly have numbers in the box for a change, first time in years actually, and that was so refreshing.
The next stage is for wingers to keep a cool head and strikers to create that bit of space and the two getting on the same wave length. The balls across were all a bit hopeful rather than clinical.
Porter never shows, Baxter usually drops back to the penalty spot, Miller - I'm not sure what he does. .

Well said, there were a number of situations as well that didn't see us finish. Like the one in the photo below. Flynn tries to find a teammate inside the 6 yard box, rather than playing it 45 degrees out to Porter who, unmarked could have sidefooted home. Flynn's cross is blocked by the defender at the first post.

Keeping a cool head is one thing, but there are certain things that should be hammered into players' head. In the mentioned situation the attack had lasted a while down that side when Flynn ran onto a (blocked) loose ball. In such situations defenders often get pulled to the near post, which often leaves players unmarked 45 degrees out or at the back post (I think we had a player there too).

Flynn may of course be well aware of that, minutes later he did try to chip in a cross to the back post in an almost identical situation, but it was overhit.

 

[IOM Blade]

playing it 45 degrees out to Porter who, unmarked could have sidefooted home.

He, he, he. Good one Bergs

 

[Ollessendro]

Well said, there were a number of situations as well that didn't see us finish. Like the one in the photo below. Flynn tries to find a teammate inside the 6 yard box, rather than playing it 45 degrees out to Porter who, unmarked could have sidefooted home would have missed the ball or side footed out for a goal kick. Flynn's cross is blocked by the defender at the first post.

fixed it for you Good post with some interesting analysis Bergen. Whilst I am concerned we've played well on a few occassions and not won games (relegation form) we are definately heading in the right direction. Unlike Weir, Clough seems to address his mistakes and also (in stark contrast to under Weir) we actually look like winning games. There are lots of things to be worried about (crap defence, lack of goals, no creativity in the middle) but plenty of positives. We've still go to play Swansea, Carlisle, Stevenage and Bristol City at home, so we need to make those count.

And also BladeInThatcham. Take note, nob eard.

Owd Piggy Dingle wer only talkin abart play offs a couple o weeks agu!? BladeInThatcham - Reit two hat.

 

[Deadbat]

Some good analysis Bergen

We did have more opportunities and got the ball in great areas but I still would argue over the number that was classed as real chances or certainly efforts on goal.

The Murphy block, the Maguire header in the first half I agree with. Second half they are all half chances really other than the McGinn one. I cannot remember one that I would class as a real clear chance or effort on goal. They were shots over, blocks or miskicks.

I cannot recall the keeper making a save of note other than that for all the 'chances' in the second half.

What I would say is it proves what great positions we got in and got into so many good areas but poor final ball, lack of anticipation and in some instances not being clinical enough were all our undoing.

The play up to the last bit was very good.
However for all the play we had and all the ball we had to make the keeper work once properly the whole second half was poor really. We had shots blocked and over the bar but it was not as if we missed lots of clear chances/sitters.

With a better final ball (Flynn and Murphy were really good but how many superb crosses begging to be converted did they put in?). Conversely how many of the good crosses did no one react to. It is a combination of things. My only real criticism fromt he performance (other than chucking away lead obviously) was that aspect in the final third. We took too long with too many touches at times to decide what were going to do and allowed men to get back when often through good counter attack we had 3 on 3 or the like and with quicker thoughts/balls could have got the goals we needed.

Still from where we where 3 months ago; it is like night and day. Hopefully we can correct some of above and finish the better play.

 

[Grecian2000]

We've still go to play Swansea, Carlisle, Stevenage and Bristol City at home, so we need to make those count.

I can see a max of nine points there Olly. Think Swansea might have too much for us on current form.

 

[Pinchy]

I can see a max of nine points there Olly. Think Swansea might have too much for us on current form.

Nonsense, we'll overcome their tippy-tappy ballet-football with 90 minutes of good old S2 Upanatem. It will be no contest. On the half-dozen occasions we get possession [who needs it when you can kick it long; kick it hard; kick it high?] we will launch it ferociously 70 yards, in the general direction of their goal and chase after it really, really hard. It will be, as the legendary "Alehouse Micky" Adams once famously said, "Carnage". How right he was.

 

[boo radley]

Nonsense, we'll overcome their tippy-tappy ballet-football with 90 minutes of good old S2 Upanatem. It will be no contest. On the half-dozen occasions we get possession [who needs it when you can kick it long; kick it hard; kick it high?] we will launch it ferociously 70 yards, in the general direction of their goal and chase after it really, really hard. It will be, as the legendary "Alehouse Micky" Adams once famously said, "Carnage". How right he was.

Flippin eck I was already tired.

 

[sheffielder]

Nonsense, we'll overcome their tippy-tappy ballet-football with 90 minutes of good old S2 Upanatem. It will be no contest. On the half-dozen occasions we get possession [who needs it when you can kick it long; kick it hard; kick it high?] we will launch it ferociously 70 yards, in the general direction of their goal and chase after it really, really hard. It will be, as the legendary "Alehouse Micky" Adams once famously said, "Carnage". How right he was.

I am guessing you didn't notice, however there was 1 kick from Long in the 1st half which practically landed in the opposition box. Clough came out and applauded him. I am guessing it was ironic huh?

 

[Bergen Blade]

We did have more opportunities and got the ball in great areas but I still would argue over the number that was classed as real chances or certainly efforts on goal.

Just as an example, the screenshot below shows one of Baxter's second half chances. Murphy had done really well, beating the full back and puts in a nice, rolling cross. Baxter is not under pressure as he shoots. Wouldn't you say it's a real chance? He mishits the shot though and the goalkeeper doesn't have to make the save.

 

[JohnDenver]

Flynn may of course be well aware of that, minutes later he did try to chip in a cross to the back post in an almost identical situation, but it was overhit.

On one occasion it was noticeable that all our attacking players went to the front post, and the cross evaded the lot of them. If one had dropped back it was a tap-in. I might have sworn rather loudly at that point.

 

[Dnblade]

Yes,not to many clear cut chances,despite getting in some good positions out wide..Often the cross was blocked,over hit or we've not picked out a red and white shirt,but good to see plenty of numbers in the box.Apart from that Baxter chance,what was the chance Mcginn had when fed through by Flynn in the right hand channel...tried to shoot it in at the near post,but keeper well positioned...great ball by Flynn by the way.

 

[Pinchy]

I am guessing you didn't notice, however there was 1 kick from Long in the 1st half which practically landed in the opposition box. Clough came out and applauded him. I am guessing it was ironic huh?

Probably delight that George actually kicked it straight and didn't cause havoc for once. He needs a rest.

 

[Sharpestblade]

Just as an example, the screenshot below shows one of Baxter's second half chances. Murphy had done really well, beating the full back and puts in a nice, rolling cross. Baxter is not under pressure as he shoots. Wouldn't you say it's a real chance? He mishits the shot though and the goalkeeper doesn't have to make the save.

View attachment 7075

I'm with you on the chances issue Bergen, we had plenty. In addition we had plenty more situations where we could and should have created a clear cut middle of the goal, 10 yards out chance. Main problem here was lack of quality, a little from Flynn but mainly from McMahon. I wouldn't be surprised if Clough got a new full back in .

 

[itsinyerblood]

I'm with you on the chances issue Bergen, we had plenty. In addition we had plenty more situations where we could and should have created a clear cut middle of the goal, 10 yards out chance. Main problem here was lack of quality, a little from Flynn but mainly from McMahon. I wouldn't be surprised if Clough got a new full back in .

Funny you should mention a fullback Sharpestblade, saw a story earlier that Utd are one of a few clubs interested in Cardiff's John Brayford. Has a good relationship with NC, so who knows if this has legs? Let's hope uh? UTB

 

[Ollessendro]

I can see a max of nine points there Olly. Think Swansea might have too much for us on current form.

Ooops. Shrewsbury of course.