BladesPod: Brighton review, Reading FA Cup preview

[Beans]

Afternoon all,

Roygbiv and I go through (what I thought was) an enjoyable match on Saturday even with the frustrating outcome, with particular focus on:

• 40 points
• Brighton's tactical approach and a completely different game to what we expected
• Fleck celebrating his new contract with a fine performance
• Stevens' goal of the month contender (our best goal of the season so far?)
• focus on McBurnie, Berge, Sharp and Osborne's solid cameo off the bench
• looking ahead to Reading in the FA Cup

As always, really appreciate you listening, and UTB!



Apple Podcasts: https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/bladespod/id1309198119?mt=2

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6wLq5qaiQ123cLHHMnTixJ

 

[Flatulent_Bob]

First!!!
Edit- Wrong thread.

 

[dublin 10 blade]

I’ll look forward to listening to this on my way home from work
Hopefully voices of reason among some insanity after the Brighton game

 

[Sheffsteel]

Agree with your first comment.
Result was dissapointing but our performance/ possession/ passing was better than in previous matches.
Just thought Brighton were very defensive, kept big numbers back and really frustrated us.
We dominated but just lacked quality with the final ball.

 

[CoatesyBlade]

Looking forward to this... always a good listen

 

[Balham]

Osborn, fucking OSBORN



(seriously - thanks for the soundtrack to an hour's work!)

 

[Beans]

Osborn, fucking OSBORN



(seriously - thanks for the soundtrack to an hour's work!)

Oh bloody hell. Thanks for pointing it out at least; I spent the second half of last season misspelling Cranie's name (Crainie, fucking Crainie)

 

[CoatesyBlade]

Enjoyed it fellas!
Although you've re hashed the bloody corners debate! There's even another thread on the matter now! Haha

 

[Antonb]

Nice one guys , another great episode, thankyou

 

[Revolution]

Enjoyable pod, thanks fellas.

Roygbiv I think it's a strawman to say that people are moaning about us not having a 20 goal a season forward and that being an unrealistic thing to complain about (I do agree with the latter point).

What some people have said - I certainly have - is that for all the talk about there being more to a forward's game than goals, 12 goals combined from our 5 forwards in 27 games is a poor return. We have got away with this thanks to an exceptional defence and the midfield and wingbacks more than pulling their weight on goalscoring this season.

I suspect that we will not be able to repeat our defensive performance next season, so the strikers will need to do better.

 

[Antonb]

I m sure the coaching staff and the players believe they can carry on , just as good defensively next season. The strikers, yes I see your point. Fingers crossed, some of these near misses McBurnie has had will start going in!

 

[Balham]

Enjoyable pod, thanks fellas.

Roygbiv I think it's a strawman to say that people are moaning about us not having a 20 goal a season forward and that being an unrealistic thing to complain about (I do agree with the latter point).

What some people have said - I certainly have - is that for all the talk about there being more to a forward's game than goals, 12 goals combined from our 5 forwards in 27 games is a poor return. We have got away with this thanks to an exceptional defence and the midfield and wingbacks more than pulling their weight on goalscoring this season.

I suspect that we will not be able to repeat our defensive performance next season, so the strikers will need to do better.

I know xG isn't perfect but it's reasonable to expect a reversion to the norm over time. Using understat our strikers are way under where you'd expect them to be (step forward Mr D McGoldrick!) - the stats would suggest that the strikers should have scored 22 goals between them (McGoldrick 7.2, McBurnie 6.2, Mousset 4.9, Sharp 2.5 and Robinson 1.6). The only forward anywhere near their number is Mousset (5 goals).

There are similarities with how this season is playing out compared to 2017/18 - the difference being that we haven't lost a fulcrum player to a horror injury. The key is going to be tweaking the flat three again to make us that little bit more potent which will, to my mind, involve a little more dynamism in midfield.

 

[Baaaaaaa Blades]

great listen as always cheers

It is slightly concerning that some of our fan base seem to expect us to win every game now ! As Roy says he heard the 'typical United' comment , i heard comments on Saturday of 'these are shit' and 'come on lads you should be beating this lot '

I really hope all fans remember that even if we go out to Reading and then lose to Norwich we have still had a great season and are in a incredible position both now and with this management / squad etc imo for the future

if we finish top ten in this league ( which is very probable ) it will only be the 2nd time in my 30+ years supporting the blades we have ever done this , so def not 'typical united !'

 

[Roygbiv]

Enjoyable pod, thanks fellas.

Roygbiv I think it's a strawman to say that people are moaning about us not having a 20 goal a season forward and that being an unrealistic thing to complain about (I do agree with the latter point).

What some people have said - I certainly have - is that for all the talk about there being more to a forward's game than goals, 12 goals combined from our 5 forwards in 27 games is a poor return. We have got away with this thanks to an exceptional defence and the midfield and wingbacks more than pulling their weight on goalscoring this season.

I suspect that we will not be able to repeat our defensive performance next season, so the strikers will need to do better.

I agree with you. We do have to score more and that inevitably falls to the strikers to produce. My point was some fans thinking having a 20 goal striker at this level is a must . Only 4 players got 20 goals or more last season so people expecting any of ours to match this are, in my opinion, being unrealistic.

They do need to score more and I think we all accept this but I think McBurnie and Mousett will have done well to get double figures this season given the amount of games they've played.

 

[Revolution]

I know xG isn't perfect but it's reasonable to expect a reversion to the norm over time. Using understat our strikers are way under where you'd expect them to be (step forward Mr D McGoldrick!) - the stats would suggest that the strikers should have scored 22 goals between them (McGoldrick 7.2, McBurnie 6.2, Mousset 4.9, Sharp 2.5 and Robinson 1.6). The only forward anywhere near their number is Mousset (5 goals).

There are similarities with how this season is playing out compared to 2017/18 - the difference being that we haven't lost a fulcrum player to a horror injury. The key is going to be tweaking the flat three again to make us that little bit more potent which will, to my mind, involve a little more dynamism in midfield.

So the differences are:

Didzy minus 7.2
McBurnie minus 2.2
Robinson minus 0.6
Sharp minus 0.5
Mousset plus 0.1

Given that xG has its problems and is not an exact science, I'd say that Sharp, Mousset and Robinson are performing as they should be, more or less. McBurnie is not doing too well, and McGoldrick is underperforming terribly.

However, I would be careful of assuming there will inevitably be a reversion to the norm. There are players who always overperform or underperform xG. Some of the ones who overperform do so because they are excellent finishers. Some of the ones who underperform do so because they are poor finishers. Personally, I think the latter is true of Didzy at PL level.

One sad thing is that we haven't created more "easier" chances, for Sharp in particular. But then again defences are very good at this level.

 

[Balham]

So the differences are:

Didzy minus 7.2
McBurnie minus 2.2
Robinson minus 0.6
Sharp minus 0.5
Mousset plus 0.1

Given that xG has its problems and is not an exact science, I'd say that Sharp, Mousset and Robinson are performing as they should be, more or less. McBurnie is not doing too well, and McGoldrick is underperforming terribly.

However, I would be careful of assuming there will inevitably be a reversion to the norm. There are players who always overperform or underperform xG. Some of the ones who overperform do so because they are excellent finishers. Some of the ones who underperform do so because they are poor finishers. Personally, I think the latter is true of Didzy at PL level.

One sad thing is that we haven't created more "easier" chances, for Sharp in particular. But then again defences are very good at this level.

On the numbers I'd agree with you but I was basing my view on an arbitrary efficiency measure: McGoldrick is 0/7.2 = 0%, McBurnie is 4/6.2 = 65%, Mousset 5/4.9 = 102%, Sharp 2/2.5 = 80%, Robinson 1/1.6 = 63%.

Bottom line is that they should all be on additional shooting practice but as you say there's also the underlying fact that you could argue that McGoldrick just isn't a finisher.

 

[Balham]

So the differences are:

Didzy minus 7.2
McBurnie minus 2.2
Robinson minus 0.6
Sharp minus 0.5
Mousset plus 0.1

Given that xG has its problems and is not an exact science, I'd say that Sharp, Mousset and Robinson are performing as they should be, more or less. McBurnie is not doing too well, and McGoldrick is underperforming terribly.

However, I would be careful of assuming there will inevitably be a reversion to the norm. There are players who always overperform or underperform xG. Some of the ones who overperform do so because they are excellent finishers. Some of the ones who underperform do so because they are poor finishers. Personally, I think the latter is true of Didzy at PL level.

One sad thing is that we haven't created more "easier" chances, for Sharp in particular. But then again defences are very good at this level.

FWIW:
PL top 10 goalscorers 2019/20
1= Vardy 17 goals / 13.4 xG = 127% efficiency
1= Aubameyang 17/12.1 = 140%
3 Agüero 16/14.7 = 109%
4= Salah 15/15.2 = 99%
4= Ings 15/10.7 = 140%
6= Rashford 14/15.1 = 93%
6= Abraham 14/13.4 = 104%
8 Mané 13/12.3 = 106%
9= Jiménez 12/12.8 = 94%
9= Calvert-Lewin 12/11.9 = 101%

Select others
15 Wood 10/12.8 = 78% (10th on xG)
16 Jesus 10/14.1 = 71% (5th on xG)
20 Firmino 8/14.3 = 56% (4th on xG)

McGoldrick is 22nd in the xG table; McBurnie is 29th.