ucandomagic
Well-Known Member
I decided to delay the graphical analysis of Matchday 12 from Saturday to combine it with the XG analysis when the full XG data came in today.
I thought that the tribute to George on Saturday was superbly done, we are very lucky to have Gary Sinclair. As far as the game went, I felt that Stoke were poor but that we used Big Kieff’s strengths much better. With Harry, Anel, Vini and Kieff we certainly have a big powerful spine to the team these days.
As usual, Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 22 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now 4 points behind my Autos Line and 2 behind my Playoffs Certain Line.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 22 points (with a 2-point deduction) we are now 2 behind the 24 points that we had in 22/23 under Hecky, 3 behind Wilder in 18/19 and 8 points behind Warnock’s great start in 05/06.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are now in 4th place, a point behind Leeds and Burnley and, without the deduction, we would be second behind Sunderland.
League Table:
Moving on to XG data - this is my review of Blades XG performance and general Championship XG stats. The purpose of this is simply to assess how teams are performing relative to their XG data – ie if a team’s results are better than their XG data it would suggest that they are overperforming and likely to slip back – and vice versa.
On Saturday October 26th we beat Stoke 2-0 at Bramall Lane.
The provisional XG data for the Stoke game is Blades 2.5 – Stoke 0.8
Graph 3 shows a comparison of the progress of our actual goals for and against with our XG expected goals for and against over our 12 games so far. XG says that over those 12 games we should have scored 14.8 and conceded 10 and we have actually scored 14 and conceded 6. So, we are performing very close to our XG in scoring but better than average against our XGA in defence for the chances that we are creating and allowing.
Our problem is creating chances rather than finishing them. To put it in context, we are only 13th highest in chances created.
Graph 3:
Chart 1 is a measure of over/under Championship performance based on general chances created/allowed. The numbers in Chart 1 are a measure of a team’s expected goal difference against their actual goal difference, ie (XG-XGA) minus actual goal difference. The detail of this doesn't matter, but in my mind the top third of this chart are overperforming and could be expected to slip down in league position, unless they have an exceptionally clinical strikeforce and/or an exceptional goalkeeper. The middle third are probably matching the chances they create and allow, and the bottom third are underperforming and could be expected to move up the league unless they have a particularly poor strikeforce and/or a particularly weak goalkeeper.
Chart 1:
So, performance-wise, the Blades’ actual performance this season is close but slightly better than their XG performance. The 2 teams most notable from Chart 1 are Middlesbrough and Sunderland. While our goals scored are 95% of our XG, Middlesbrough are massively underscoring their XG, their goals scored is only 67% of their XG. Sunderland are quite the opposite – their goals scored are 153% of their XG.
Chart 2 is the XTable - based on both team’s XG’s in matches played – alongside the actual League Table. Blades are 4th in the XTable and 4th in the actual League table so, as observed above, our results pretty accurately reflect our XG stats. Watford are the biggest overperformers here – being 7th in the actual table but 19th in the XTable. Luton are the exact opposite, being 22nd in the actual table but 10th in the XTable.
Chart 2:
So, overall the stats continue to suggest that our results are a reasonably accurate reflection of our XG performance and represent a probable playoff position. Our poor creation of good chances means that our position is based firmly on a sound defence. As mentioned we are 13th best in XG, but we are 4th best in XGA, behind Leeds, Burnley and Middlesbrough. Our average XGA of 0.83 goals per game is a fairly good figure, but we are even outperforming that by delivering an actual average of 0.5 goals against per game, a figure only beaten by Burnley.
Teams like Sunderland, Burnley, Oxford and Blackburn continue to overachieve significantly against their performance and might be expected to slip down the table, whereas teams like Middlesbrough, Luton, QPR and Coventry are significantly underachieving against their performance and would be expected to move up the table.
Our next game is on Saturday away at Blackburn. They have scored 12 goals in their 6 home games with an XG of 7.3, so we can expect long-range shots on target. Overall, the stats would suggest a1-1 draw, which I would be fairly happy with.
So that’s it for another week.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
I thought that the tribute to George on Saturday was superbly done, we are very lucky to have Gary Sinclair. As far as the game went, I felt that Stoke were poor but that we used Big Kieff’s strengths much better. With Harry, Anel, Vini and Kieff we certainly have a big powerful spine to the team these days.
As usual, Graph 1 compares our progress against 3 benchmark sets of results which represent Automatic Promotion, Playoff Certainty and Playoff Possibility. My benchmarks take account of who our opponents are each week. On 22 points, comparing to my benchmarks, we are now 4 points behind my Autos Line and 2 behind my Playoffs Certain Line.
Graph 1:
Graph 2 compares this season against our last 3 successful promotions from this level (all in second place), in 2005/06, 2018/19 and 2022/23. On 22 points (with a 2-point deduction) we are now 2 behind the 24 points that we had in 22/23 under Hecky, 3 behind Wilder in 18/19 and 8 points behind Warnock’s great start in 05/06.
Graph 2:
Next, the coloured annotated up-to-date League Table, which highlights where our strengths and weaknesses are against opponents’ league positions. Blades are now in 4th place, a point behind Leeds and Burnley and, without the deduction, we would be second behind Sunderland.
League Table:
Moving on to XG data - this is my review of Blades XG performance and general Championship XG stats. The purpose of this is simply to assess how teams are performing relative to their XG data – ie if a team’s results are better than their XG data it would suggest that they are overperforming and likely to slip back – and vice versa.
On Saturday October 26th we beat Stoke 2-0 at Bramall Lane.
The provisional XG data for the Stoke game is Blades 2.5 – Stoke 0.8
Graph 3 shows a comparison of the progress of our actual goals for and against with our XG expected goals for and against over our 12 games so far. XG says that over those 12 games we should have scored 14.8 and conceded 10 and we have actually scored 14 and conceded 6. So, we are performing very close to our XG in scoring but better than average against our XGA in defence for the chances that we are creating and allowing.
Our problem is creating chances rather than finishing them. To put it in context, we are only 13th highest in chances created.
Graph 3:
Chart 1 is a measure of over/under Championship performance based on general chances created/allowed. The numbers in Chart 1 are a measure of a team’s expected goal difference against their actual goal difference, ie (XG-XGA) minus actual goal difference. The detail of this doesn't matter, but in my mind the top third of this chart are overperforming and could be expected to slip down in league position, unless they have an exceptionally clinical strikeforce and/or an exceptional goalkeeper. The middle third are probably matching the chances they create and allow, and the bottom third are underperforming and could be expected to move up the league unless they have a particularly poor strikeforce and/or a particularly weak goalkeeper.
Chart 1:
So, performance-wise, the Blades’ actual performance this season is close but slightly better than their XG performance. The 2 teams most notable from Chart 1 are Middlesbrough and Sunderland. While our goals scored are 95% of our XG, Middlesbrough are massively underscoring their XG, their goals scored is only 67% of their XG. Sunderland are quite the opposite – their goals scored are 153% of their XG.
Chart 2 is the XTable - based on both team’s XG’s in matches played – alongside the actual League Table. Blades are 4th in the XTable and 4th in the actual League table so, as observed above, our results pretty accurately reflect our XG stats. Watford are the biggest overperformers here – being 7th in the actual table but 19th in the XTable. Luton are the exact opposite, being 22nd in the actual table but 10th in the XTable.
Chart 2:
So, overall the stats continue to suggest that our results are a reasonably accurate reflection of our XG performance and represent a probable playoff position. Our poor creation of good chances means that our position is based firmly on a sound defence. As mentioned we are 13th best in XG, but we are 4th best in XGA, behind Leeds, Burnley and Middlesbrough. Our average XGA of 0.83 goals per game is a fairly good figure, but we are even outperforming that by delivering an actual average of 0.5 goals against per game, a figure only beaten by Burnley.
Teams like Sunderland, Burnley, Oxford and Blackburn continue to overachieve significantly against their performance and might be expected to slip down the table, whereas teams like Middlesbrough, Luton, QPR and Coventry are significantly underachieving against their performance and would be expected to move up the table.
Our next game is on Saturday away at Blackburn. They have scored 12 goals in their 6 home games with an XG of 7.3, so we can expect long-range shots on target. Overall, the stats would suggest a1-1 draw, which I would be fairly happy with.
So that’s it for another week.
UTB & Slava Ukraini!
