A few observations from the stats re 2nd Half Syndrome

[Coolblade]

I know we can all see and recognise the drop-off after half-time, but looking at the stats, it’s not just a trend, it’s a tactical car crash. We dominate the first 45, then fall apart once the opposition tweaks their shape (Wembley perhaps the most depressing example, even before this season began).

First Half vs Second Half

A massive thirteen goal swing

Phase​	Goals Scored​	Goals Conceded​	Clean Sheets​	Goal Difference​
0–45’	13	8	14	+5
46–90’	15	23	4	-8

• Final 30 minutes: 16 of 31 goals conceded (51.6%).
• Points dropped: 11 from winning positions after the 70th minute, the worst in the division
• Second-half goals conceded per match: 1.05 vs 0.36 in the first half
• Defensive regression: -187%. It’s not fitness, it’s structural failure.

Tactical naivety: Opposition managers are successfully identifying our defensive triggers as the game progresses. Our failure to counter-adjust suggests a rigid adherence to a Plan A that becomes predictable by the 60th minute.

Since Wilder’s return in September, he has largely re-introduced the high-risk overlapping philosophy. Now, with four at the back and marauding full-backs, rather than a back five as previously employed with the outer centre-backs pushed forward. This setup creates early overloads and has tremendously improved our goal scoring. But it leaves the midfield pairing having to cover immense ground, making us constantly vulnerable, especially as the game progresses.

Tracking data shows that after the 65th minute, the “Average Defensive Distance” (the gap between the backline and midfield) increases by 9 metres. This creates a dead zone that savvy Championship sides (like Preston in their 3-2 comeback) exploit with direct counter-attacks.

Expected goals (xG) conceded rises sharply in the second half, meaning we are giving opponents higher-quality chances late in games. League average xGA per game for strong defensive Championship teams is ~1.27; our second-half xGA exceeds this benchmark.

Shots conceded per 15 minutes increase by 25 percent in the second half, reinforcing structural collapse. As games reach the closing stages, the team’s zonal marking system consistently fails. Under both Selles and Wilder this season, 40% of late goals (60’+) are from set-pieces, indicating a lack of game intelligence.

Net impact of subs: Substitutes brought on after the 70th minute have a -5 net goal impact this season. Rather than improving our game management or negating our opponents’ tactical changes, our substitutes often disrupt defensive and attacking rhythm. Given the strength of our bench compared to our opponents, this is a surprising stat.

League context: Whilst late goals are common, with 21% of Championship goals coming in the last 15 minutes, our vulnerability is stark: 51.6% of goals conceded in the final half-hour and 11 points blown after 70’. It’s not just above average, it is the highest in the Championship. That’s not bad luck; it’s tactical rigidity, poor adaptation, and a bench that doesn’t shut games down.

The bottom line is that if matches ended at 60 minutes, we would be comfortably in the play-off positions.

But there again, I hate the play-offs!

UTB

 

[Bladesman]

I know we can all see and recognise the drop-off after half-time, but looking at the stats, it’s not just a trend, it’s a tactical car crash. We dominate the first 45, then fall apart once the opposition tweaks their shape (Wembley perhaps the most depressing example, even before this season began).

First Half vs Second Half

A massive thirteen goal swing

Phase​	Goals Scored​	Goals Conceded​	Clean Sheets​	Goal Difference​
0–45’	13	8	14	+5
46–90’	15	23	4	-8

• Final 30 minutes: 16 of 31 goals conceded (51.6%).
• Points dropped: 11 from winning positions after the 70th minute, the worst in the division
• Second-half goals conceded per match: 1.05 vs 0.36 in the first half
• Defensive regression: -187%. It’s not fitness, it’s structural failure.

Tactical naivety: Opposition managers are successfully identifying our defensive triggers as the game progresses. Our failure to counter-adjust suggests a rigid adherence to a Plan A that becomes predictable by the 60th minute.

Since Wilder’s return in September, he has largely re-introduced the high-risk overlapping philosophy. Now, with four at the back and marauding full-backs, rather than a back five as previously employed with the outer centre-backs pushed forward. This setup creates early overloads and has tremendously improved our goal scoring. But it leaves the midfield pairing having to cover immense ground, making us constantly vulnerable, especially as the game progresses.

Tracking data shows that after the 65th minute, the “Average Defensive Distance” (the gap between the backline and midfield) increases by 9 metres. This creates a dead zone that savvy Championship sides (like Preston in their 3-2 comeback) exploit with direct counter-attacks.

Expected goals (xG) conceded rises sharply in the second half, meaning we are giving opponents higher-quality chances late in games. League average xGA per game for strong defensive Championship teams is ~1.27; our second-half xGA exceeds this benchmark.

Shots conceded per 15 minutes increase by 25 percent in the second half, reinforcing structural collapse. As games reach the closing stages, the team’s zonal marking system consistently fails. Under both Selles and Wilder this season, 40% of late goals (60’+) are from set-pieces, indicating a lack of game intelligence.

Net impact of subs: Substitutes brought on after the 70th minute have a -5 net goal impact this season. Rather than improving our game management or negating our opponents’ tactical changes, our substitutes often disrupt defensive and attacking rhythm. Given the strength of our bench compared to our opponents, this is a surprising stat.

League context: Whilst late goals are common, with 21% of Championship goals coming in the last 15 minutes, our vulnerability is stark: 51.6% of goals conceded in the final half-hour and 11 points blown after 70’. It’s not just above average, it is the highest in the Championship. That’s not bad luck; it’s tactical rigidity, poor adaptation, and a bench that doesn’t shut games down.

The bottom line is that if matches ended at 60 minutes, we would be comfortably in the play-off positions.

But there again, I hate the play-offs!

UTB

It's on Wilder and poor game management late on in matches.

 

[beatific blade]

23 goals conceded in the 2nd half of games.

That’s 2 more than Stoke have conceded in the entirety of all their games this season.

And Stoke are 10th.

Fuck me

 

[Rudders]

It's on Wilder and poor game management late on in matches.

There is something about some of our players only being able to do 45 to 60 minutes play. Notable culprits are Hamer, Riedewald, Campbell and Bamford. O hare and probably Arblaster drop off so much. Although the stats strongly suggest that when we sub these players off we get loads worse and actually we probably should leave them on - although that risks injuring them…

 

[Bladesman]

There is something about some of our players only being able to do 45 to 60 minutes play. Notable culprits are Hamer, Riedewald, Campbell and Bamford. O hare and probably Arblaster drop off so much. Although the stats strongly suggest that when we sub these players off we get loads worse and actually we probably should leave them on - although that risks injuring them…

Sadly if the fitness isn't there yet, it isn't there yet. Jairo, Blaster, Bamford not had a pre-season.

A disgrace that Campbell can rarely do 90 minutes though.

 

[finlaytheblade]

Would be interesting how Wilder would react to to all that! Its calling him out as much as the players.
We have no idea how to close a game down when leading and by that i dont mean sitting back and soaking it up.
If he and his coaches arnt aware of what we are doing wrong game after game! How do they keep there job.?
Them stats Coolblade are shocking .Wilder must be aware! is that what he means when he says I cant wait for the window!

 

[Loco Blade]

I know we can all see and recognise the drop-off after half-time, but looking at the stats, it’s not just a trend, it’s a tactical car crash. We dominate the first 45, then fall apart once the opposition tweaks their shape (Wembley perhaps the most depressing example, even before this season began).

First Half vs Second Half

A massive thirteen goal swing

Phase​	Goals Scored​	Goals Conceded​	Clean Sheets​	Goal Difference​
0–45’	13	8	14	+5
46–90’	15	23	4	-8

• Final 30 minutes: 16 of 31 goals conceded (51.6%).
• Points dropped: 11 from winning positions after the 70th minute, the worst in the division
• Second-half goals conceded per match: 1.05 vs 0.36 in the first half
• Defensive regression: -187%. It’s not fitness, it’s structural failure.

Tactical naivety: Opposition managers are successfully identifying our defensive triggers as the game progresses. Our failure to counter-adjust suggests a rigid adherence to a Plan A that becomes predictable by the 60th minute.

Since Wilder’s return in September, he has largely re-introduced the high-risk overlapping philosophy. Now, with four at the back and marauding full-backs, rather than a back five as previously employed with the outer centre-backs pushed forward. This setup creates early overloads and has tremendously improved our goal scoring. But it leaves the midfield pairing having to cover immense ground, making us constantly vulnerable, especially as the game progresses.

Tracking data shows that after the 65th minute, the “Average Defensive Distance” (the gap between the backline and midfield) increases by 9 metres. This creates a dead zone that savvy Championship sides (like Preston in their 3-2 comeback) exploit with direct counter-attacks.

Expected goals (xG) conceded rises sharply in the second half, meaning we are giving opponents higher-quality chances late in games. League average xGA per game for strong defensive Championship teams is ~1.27; our second-half xGA exceeds this benchmark.

Shots conceded per 15 minutes increase by 25 percent in the second half, reinforcing structural collapse. As games reach the closing stages, the team’s zonal marking system consistently fails. Under both Selles and Wilder this season, 40% of late goals (60’+) are from set-pieces, indicating a lack of game intelligence.

Net impact of subs: Substitutes brought on after the 70th minute have a -5 net goal impact this season. Rather than improving our game management or negating our opponents’ tactical changes, our substitutes often disrupt defensive and attacking rhythm. Given the strength of our bench compared to our opponents, this is a surprising stat.

League context: Whilst late goals are common, with 21% of Championship goals coming in the last 15 minutes, our vulnerability is stark: 51.6% of goals conceded in the final half-hour and 11 points blown after 70’. It’s not just above average, it is the highest in the Championship. That’s not bad luck; it’s tactical rigidity, poor adaptation, and a bench that doesn’t shut games down.

The bottom line is that if matches ended at 60 minutes, we would be comfortably in the play-off positions.

But there again, I hate the play-offs!

UTB

This is all 100% accurate . Why the F can’t Wilder see it

 

[raul]

Same as last season, except we could do 75 mins before folding.

God knows we've had lots of worse teams than this, but never one as spineless. Hopelessly outclassed is one thing, but this is another, and tbh where I get off.

 

[Working Class Hero]

This is surely an expected symptom of decimating the squad in the summer. We can put a pretty decent 11 together, but there's a massive drop off when we have to use the bench.

 

[Slim Man]

What are the stats of us conceding in the first 10 minutes of the second half?

 

[KMC-1889]

For all the ‘good’ wilder does around the club he’s still completely incapable of managing a 90 minute game.

Either Plan A works or we get turned over.

 

[Shawy24]

Wilder should be banned from making substitutions. He ought to delegate it to a data analyst.

 

[Barmyblade]

This is surely an expected symptom of decimating the squad in the summer. We can put a pretty decent 11 together, but there's a massive drop off when we have to use the bench.

Undoubtedly the summer transfers will have had an impact. But this issue is more longstanding. Last season, after Christmas we frequently started well, took the lead, then became progressively more defensive, usually hanging on. Whereas Leeds and Burnley continued pushing forward for the full 90 mins dominating teams and winning very comfortably.

I saw an article somewhere which suggested that the expected stats for the second half of last season would have placed us around 18th. And as Cool points out, the play off final was an example of this issue.

 

[finlaytheblade]

Coolblades stats have brought to light a big worry and unless addressed in the window we are going no where but down .we were a passionless team yesterday carrying a few passengers,
It is showing now what Peck brings to the team .
Chong and Hamer were passengers no team can sustain a 90 min game carrying players like we did yesterday .
Just what floats Hamers boat as he was shocking ,Chong is so easily rubbed out contributed nothing.
We need a captain Tanganga is not one hes struggling with his own game
never mind being a leader , ive said it before ! He regrets coming north and
looks unhappy to me.
Coolblades stats are the biggest worry as it was obviouse we drop off in the 2nd half ! Its Just the size of the drop off
Which goes all the way back to last season,Wilder must be aware of it.
Interesting month ( window) ahead.

 

[nopigfansintown]

Football is largely a game of stamina and athleticism. Unfortunately for us.

 

[BalticBlade]

I know we can all see and recognise the drop-off after half-time, but looking at the stats, it’s not just a trend, it’s a tactical car crash. We dominate the first 45, then fall apart once the opposition tweaks their shape (Wembley perhaps the most depressing example, even before this season began).

First Half vs Second Half

A massive thirteen goal swing

Phase​	Goals Scored​	Goals Conceded​	Clean Sheets​	Goal Difference​
0–45’	13	8	14	+5
46–90’	15	23	4	-8

• Final 30 minutes: 16 of 31 goals conceded (51.6%).
• Points dropped: 11 from winning positions after the 70th minute, the worst in the division
• Second-half goals conceded per match: 1.05 vs 0.36 in the first half
• Defensive regression: -187%. It’s not fitness, it’s structural failure.

Tactical naivety: Opposition managers are successfully identifying our defensive triggers as the game progresses. Our failure to counter-adjust suggests a rigid adherence to a Plan A that becomes predictable by the 60th minute.

Since Wilder’s return in September, he has largely re-introduced the high-risk overlapping philosophy. Now, with four at the back and marauding full-backs, rather than a back five as previously employed with the outer centre-backs pushed forward. This setup creates early overloads and has tremendously improved our goal scoring. But it leaves the midfield pairing having to cover immense ground, making us constantly vulnerable, especially as the game progresses.

Tracking data shows that after the 65th minute, the “Average Defensive Distance” (the gap between the backline and midfield) increases by 9 metres. This creates a dead zone that savvy Championship sides (like Preston in their 3-2 comeback) exploit with direct counter-attacks.

Expected goals (xG) conceded rises sharply in the second half, meaning we are giving opponents higher-quality chances late in games. League average xGA per game for strong defensive Championship teams is ~1.27; our second-half xGA exceeds this benchmark.

Shots conceded per 15 minutes increase by 25 percent in the second half, reinforcing structural collapse. As games reach the closing stages, the team’s zonal marking system consistently fails. Under both Selles and Wilder this season, 40% of late goals (60’+) are from set-pieces, indicating a lack of game intelligence.

Net impact of subs: Substitutes brought on after the 70th minute have a -5 net goal impact this season. Rather than improving our game management or negating our opponents’ tactical changes, our substitutes often disrupt defensive and attacking rhythm. Given the strength of our bench compared to our opponents, this is a surprising stat.

League context: Whilst late goals are common, with 21% of Championship goals coming in the last 15 minutes, our vulnerability is stark: 51.6% of goals conceded in the final half-hour and 11 points blown after 70’. It’s not just above average, it is the highest in the Championship. That’s not bad luck; it’s tactical rigidity, poor adaptation, and a bench that doesn’t shut games down.

The bottom line is that if matches ended at 60 minutes, we would be comfortably in the play-off positions.

But there again, I hate the play-offs!

UTB

It would be good if one of the local journos read this and quizzed Wilder about it in one of his pressers. But of course that won't happen, because they'll be too bust throwing him softball questions

 

[finlaytheblade]

It would be good if one of the local journos read this and quizzed Wilder about it in one of his pressers. But of course that won't happen, because they'll be too bust throwing him softball questions

Try Danny Hall! See what his reacrion will be he has access to Wilder!
These Coolblade stats are shocking
Plain to see the drop off in 2nd half
But our lack of any positive reaction is alarming.

 

[54yrblade]

Sadly if the fitness isn't there yet, it isn't there yet. Jairo, Blaster, Bamford not had a pre-season.

A disgrace that Campbell can rarely do 90 minutes though.

We had a fitness issue all last season, and it still plagues us.

If it's not sorted now huge questions need asking as to why.

Blaster is different. He's coming back from a serious injury and it looks like it's to early for him to be going full throttle.

 

[Old Programme seller]

We’ve had fitness issues before and had an injury crisis because of it perhaps this is the other end of the spectrum

 

[Roygbiv]

It would be good if one of the local journos read this and quizzed Wilder about it in one of his pressers. But of course that won't happen, because they'll be too bust throwing him softball questions

He'd talk about the fitness not being where he wants. I can take that to some degree but I don't recall us being much different in 2nd halves laat season. I'd like to see some stars for that

 

[JohnDenver]

He'd talk about the fitness not being where he wants. I can take that to some degree but I don't recall us being much different in 2nd halves laat season. I'd like to see some stars for that

Hamer is a selection where you just accept opponents run past him. No one can expect much more from Arblaster. Jairo will do an hour. Chong has yet to show any defensive ability. Then up top you’ve got Bamford and Campbell.

I don’t think it’s possible to get much more running from this bunch even if we had the time to work on it. Long term project…

What it has shown is that we can’t compete at basketball against fitter sides. The team has to be more compact, whilst Peck and perhaps Brooks really are needed.

 

[Roygbiv]

Hamer is a selection where you just accept opponents run past him. No one can expect much more from Arblaster. Jairo will do an hour. Chong has yet to show any defensive ability. Then up top you’ve got Bamford and Campbell.

I don’t think it’s possible to get much more running from this bunch even if we had the time to work on it. Long term project…

What it has shown is that we can’t compete at basketball against fitter sides. The team has to be more compact, whilst Peck and perhaps Brooks really are needed.

I agree that half of the team are unfit and for the most part that isn't the players fault. We weren't good in 2nd halves last season though either from memory although I'm happy to be proven wrong. We've rarely come back to win games over the last few years

 

[ATL Recs]

Would be interesting how Wilder would react to to all that! Its calling him out as much as the players.
We have no idea how to close a game down when leading and by that i dont mean sitting back and soaking it up.
If he and his coaches arnt aware of what we are doing wrong game after game! How do they keep there job.?
Them stats Coolblade are shocking .Wilder must be aware! is that what he means when he says I cant wait for the window!

Is he gonna jump out of it ?

 

[Old Programme seller]

Fitness aside we are playing a different brand of football from last seasons tepid performances I wonder if this is the new Wilderball which we more or less want and may be asked for by the owners when Selles was appointed and also asked for by them when we appointed CW?

 

[Nagima]

I know we can all see and recognise the drop-off after half-time, but looking at the stats, it’s not just a trend, it’s a tactical car crash. We dominate the first 45, then fall apart once the opposition tweaks their shape (Wembley perhaps the most depressing example, even before this season began).

First Half vs Second Half

A massive thirteen goal swing

Phase​	Goals Scored​	Goals Conceded​	Clean Sheets​	Goal Difference​
0–45’	13	8	14	+5
46–90’	15	23	4	-8

• Final 30 minutes: 16 of 31 goals conceded (51.6%).
• Points dropped: 11 from winning positions after the 70th minute, the worst in the division
• Second-half goals conceded per match: 1.05 vs 0.36 in the first half
• Defensive regression: -187%. It’s not fitness, it’s structural failure.

Tactical naivety: Opposition managers are successfully identifying our defensive triggers as the game progresses. Our failure to counter-adjust suggests a rigid adherence to a Plan A that becomes predictable by the 60th minute.

Since Wilder’s return in September, he has largely re-introduced the high-risk overlapping philosophy. Now, with four at the back and marauding full-backs, rather than a back five as previously employed with the outer centre-backs pushed forward. This setup creates early overloads and has tremendously improved our goal scoring. But it leaves the midfield pairing having to cover immense ground, making us constantly vulnerable, especially as the game progresses.

Tracking data shows that after the 65th minute, the “Average Defensive Distance” (the gap between the backline and midfield) increases by 9 metres. This creates a dead zone that savvy Championship sides (like Preston in their 3-2 comeback) exploit with direct counter-attacks.

Expected goals (xG) conceded rises sharply in the second half, meaning we are giving opponents higher-quality chances late in games. League average xGA per game for strong defensive Championship teams is ~1.27; our second-half xGA exceeds this benchmark.

Shots conceded per 15 minutes increase by 25 percent in the second half, reinforcing structural collapse. As games reach the closing stages, the team’s zonal marking system consistently fails. Under both Selles and Wilder this season, 40% of late goals (60’+) are from set-pieces, indicating a lack of game intelligence.

Net impact of subs: Substitutes brought on after the 70th minute have a -5 net goal impact this season. Rather than improving our game management or negating our opponents’ tactical changes, our substitutes often disrupt defensive and attacking rhythm. Given the strength of our bench compared to our opponents, this is a surprising stat.

League context: Whilst late goals are common, with 21% of Championship goals coming in the last 15 minutes, our vulnerability is stark: 51.6% of goals conceded in the final half-hour and 11 points blown after 70’. It’s not just above average, it is the highest in the Championship. That’s not bad luck; it’s tactical rigidity, poor adaptation, and a bench that doesn’t shut games down.

The bottom line is that if matches ended at 60 minutes, we would be comfortably in the play-off positions.

But there again, I hate the play-offs!

UTB

Great post OP, it provides insight into what we have been seeing. Football intelligence and in game adjustments are a weak point.
The football intelligence isnt an easy fix as we are lacking leaders in midfield.

 

[Nick Jansky]

I have a friend who is head of medical and performance at a top PL club. He tells me that over the last few years the game has morphed from being a technical game into one dominated by elite athletes. Our lot clearly didn’t get the memo. The recruitment has been gash for years. Having character and passion is ok, but doesn’t and won’t compensate for lacking what have now become the basics. Last summer we seemingly didn’t even manage to recruit the character and passion.

 

[finlaytheblade]

Great post OP, it provides insight into what we have been seeing. Football intelligence and in game adjustments are a weak point.
The football intelligence isnt an easy fix as we are lacking leaders in midfield.

Whos captain? Tanganga is named as captain ! he is not captain material.
But who is?

 

[Striker]

The stats in the OP, in my opinion, are massively influenced by our inability to win Midfield dominance. We are woefully weak in the tackle and extremely lightweight.

Playing Hamer and Ohare together is OK when we go forward, but a car-crash when under pressure.

Add to this that there's only Bamford amongst the forwards, who can remotely hold the ball up top, neither fullback stops crosses coming in and the central defenders get bullied, it explains why we are so poor when our energy levels drop in the second half.

Basically unless we keep going forward we will get beat.

CW needs a very good window to address these glaringly obvious shortcomings.

 

[Nagima]

Whos captain? Tanganga is named as captain ! he is not captain material.
But who is?

That's a big problem. Agree on Tanganga.
Arblaster potentially. Peck potentially.
O'Hare is only other option. We need a permanent signing in Jan.

 

[Tom Bott]

It's on Wilder and poor game management late on in matches.

Maybe we should try sitting back after we have taken the lead, it brought much praise for Wilder last season IIRC.

Strangely there were few complaints after the derby match regarding 1st half 2nd half tactics or substitutions.
I think the fundamental problem is that there are two teams in a game and sometimes the other team also wishes to win.

Wrexham are 2nd in the league with home form in the last eight matches.

Where we have lost 3 games in the last ten (both) (5th)