10 more wins

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CoatesyBlade

CoatesyBlade

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With 20 games to go I believe 10 more wins will do it. If we win 10 then Blackburn must win 14 (and that’s if we fail to draw any of the remainder)
I’ll be starting the countdown vs Stoke.
This isn’t exact mathematics. But I did the same the last time we went up.
It’s great to tick the wins off… and it’s also good for your sanity when we suffer a loss! UTB ⚔️
 



CoatesyBlade said:
With 20 games to go I believe 10 more wins will do it. If we win 10 then Blackburn must win 14 (and that’s if we fail to draw any of the remainder)
I’ll be starting the countdown vs Stoke.
This isn’t exact mathematics. But I did the same the last time we went up.
It’s great to tick the wins off… and it’s also good for your sanity when we suffer a loss! UTB ⚔️
Click to expand...

We have 11 home matches left and 9 away matches.

Realistically 10 wins 5 draws and 5 losses ensures we'll be promoted even if the challengers end the season with a really impressive run.
An extra 15 points would see us finish on 86 points. The other teams would need incredible finishes to beat that.

However wouldn't surprise me if the low 80 points might be enough for the autos this season.
 
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Sheffsteel said:
However wouldn't surprise me if the low 80 points might be enough for the autos this season.
Click to expand...
In 1996, Derby got 79 in total to get automatic promotion. Not sure if this is the fewest to get automatic promotion in a 46 game season
 
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Sheffsteel said:
Realistically 10 wins 5 draws and 5 losses ensures we'll be promoted even if the challengers end the season with a really impressive run.
An extra 15 points would see us finish on 86 points. The other teams would need incredible finishes to beat that.
Click to expand...

My arithmetic can't be any good.
Of course 10 wins and 5 draws in an extra 35 points not 15 points ha ha

From the 11 home games you would expect us (at worse) to win 6, draw 3 and lose 2.
So that would mean away from home we'd need to win 4, draw 2, lose 3 (again not that good).

The above results aren't anything special and represent a very do able target, to win only 6 of our remaining 11 home matches would actually be pretty poor
but I'm pretty certain it would still be enough, we've opened up such a big lead that just an average/OK run in guarantees top 2.
 
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Silent Blade said:
In 1996, Derby got 79 in total to get automatic promotion. Not sure if this is the fewest to get automatic promotion in a 46 game season
Click to expand...

Still think someone from the pack, probably Middlesbrough, West Brom or Watford will finish strongly showing proper promotion form (2 points per game).
Anyone noticed that these big 3 rivals have all still to come to Bramall Lane, so yet another advantage to us.

My view is that Middlesboro and West Brom have left it too late for autos after having a terrible relegation bound start
They have 12 points to make up + we have a better goal difference too, it's not just about making up the gap but then they then need to maintain it.

Traditional gauranteed promotion form of 2 points per game still only takes them to 78 and 79 points respectively,
so they need to do something very special to get near 85 points, which historically rarely happens.

For example Boro have already won 6 out of their last 7, they need to repeat that form again.
Does anyone seriously think they'll win 6 out of their next 7 games, making it 12 out of 14 wins and they'd still probably be below us.
 
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I actually do feel relatively relaxed regarding our auto promotion chances, we have a lot of international players and players with big game experience who will know what is now required to get to the prem,.plus the added incentive for some of the older pros to have one more crack at the big time is a huge incentive in its self
 
Sheffsteel said:
However wouldn't surprise me if the low 80 points might be enough for the autos this season.
Click to expand...

I think 82 will do it, which would be lower than some 3rd place finishes in the last few seasons

Anything higher requires the chasing pack to be averaging over 2 points per game to end the season
 
I think we averaged 2pts a game more or less when Hecky took over so it’s realistic to think we shouldn’t become complacent
 
BiggerBladeThanThou said:
We’ve got a helluva run-in between mid Feb and mid April.View attachment 150380
Click to expand...
As things stand, the opponents are:

5th
6th
4th
3rd
7th
8th
9th
11th
24th
1st

It might look scary but everyone below Watford is only 90 mins away from dropping into the bottom half. There's no chance the current playoff teams with be the playoff teams by the time we play Boro. My guess is one, max two.

Also, have you seen our next 5 games? All against teams in the bottom half, 3 of which are at home.
 



Bladesdoc said:
Looks daunting but if we match the results of the reverse fixtures it would be 21 points from 10 matches.
Click to expand...

Know what you men but there's little relevance to fixtures a long way into the future looking daunting because by the time we play them,
those teams could be in the bottom half and/ or in a poor run of form.

Also this season at home, we've tended to beat the teams near the top in great form and struggle against the weaker teams.
Sometimes think the players and fans aren't up for certain fixtures when it's against weaker opposition where we are expected to win eg Blackpool and Rotherham
where as if we were playing a rival then we create a great atmosphere and the players are more up for it eg Blackburn, Reading, Burnley and Coventry
Hence why hitting promotion form over a long spell is as much about mentality and experience as much as it is about quality.
 
Need to calm down a bit proclaiming autos. Far too early for that.. One game at a time. Most of us still scarred by that run pigs put together to overtake us a few years back.
We need to push for 3 points every game. No holds barred. 2 points dropped last night. Must demand better. A good point in the end under the circs but we can't be satisfied with it.
 
Panini said:
As things stand, the opponents are:

5th
6th
4th
3rd
7th
8th
9th
11th
24th
1st

It might look scary but everyone below Watford is only 90 mins away from dropping into the bottom half. There's no chance the current playoff teams with be the playoff teams by the time we play Boro. My guess is one, max two.

Also, have you seen our next 5 games? All against teams in the bottom half, 3 of which are at home.
Click to expand...
We have to target winning the next 5 , which means getting a striker in before Stoke at home.
 
Hamandcheese said:
Winning the next 5 will do it

That's exactly what they should be gearing up for over the next 10 days or so. A big push to mid Feb will make the end of the season much easier
Click to expand...
This is what Hecky meant when he said in a recent interview that he wants maximum points asap , to make things less challenging later on.
He's not daft , he's looked at mid-Feb to mid-April.
 
vas borbokis said:
Need to calm down a bit proclaiming autos. Far too early for that.. One game at a time. Most of us still scarred by that run pigs put together to overtake us a few years back.
We need to push for 3 points every game. No holds barred. 2 points dropped last night. Must demand better. A good point in the end under the circs but we can't be satisfied with it.
Click to expand...

Agree....if you think another team will win virtually all their remaining 20 matches then we're probably not going to reach the autos.
 
Don't know what you're all worried about, playing.

Watford.
Blackburn.
Middlesborough.
Burnley.
West Brom
Norwich.
And Luton...

Be a piece of piss won't it, because worst championship ever innit..
 
BiggerBladeThanThou said:
We’ve got a helluva run-in between mid Feb and mid April.View attachment 150380
Click to expand...
True, but by definition before then we can almost be home and dry.

Win the next 5 and we're at 66 points with 15 to go. You could have relegation form from that point onwards and still go up!

Also, all the teams listed, they all have to play us! Not a gimme from their side either. I'd fancy our XI against anyone in this league. But it will certainly help to put away some of the more struggling teams over the next few games.
 
Sheffsteel said:
Still think someone from the pack, probably Middlesbrough, West Brom or Watford will finish strongly showing proper promotion form (2 points per game).
Anyone noticed that these big 3 rivals have all still to come to Bramall Lane, so yet another advantage to us.

My view is that Middlesboro and West Brom have left it too late for autos after having a terrible relegation bound start
They have 12 points to make up + we have a better goal difference too, it's not just about making up the gap but then they then need to maintain it.

Traditional gauranteed promotion form of 2 points per game still only takes them to 78 and 79 points respectively,
so they need to do something very special to get near 85 points, which historically rarely happens.

For example Boro have already won 6 out of their last 7, they need to repeat that form again.
Does anyone seriously think they'll win 6 out of their next 7 games, making it 12 out of 14 wins and they'd still probably be below us.
Click to expand...
Although Boro and West Brom have improved greatly of late, we’ve actually increased the gap between us and them in the last 10 games, by 3 points and 1 point respectively, so despite their good runs, we’re further ahead with fewer games remaining.

If we were to beat both of them at home, the gap would be 15 and 16 points, they would both then need to be almost a point per game better than us to catch us (which is what Porktalk is now forecasting as the end of season outcome).
 



Panini said:
As things stand, the opponents are:

5th
6th
4th
3rd
7th
8th
9th
11th
24th
1st

It might look scary but everyone below Watford is only 90 mins away from dropping into the bottom half. There's no chance the current playoff teams with be the playoff teams by the time we play Boro. My guess is one, max two.

Also, have you seen our next 5 games? All against teams in the bottom half, 3 of which are at home.
Click to expand...
One thing I noticed there, all are below us except one and we beat them 5-2. It seems all the other teams have difficult games by playing us.
 
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