Prem League Appetizer Graphs and A 52-Year Bladercoaster Ride

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ucandomagic

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I've had a few comments about which graphs to plot next season – so I thought I’d flesh out some early ideas.

It’s 52 years since my first Lane memory in April ’71, and a John Flynn diving header in front of the Kop against Cardiff.

It’s been quite a ride since then – and my Bladercoaster chart below really highlights the ride, along with the men in the driving seat at the time. I’ve restricted myself to one manager a season or it gets too messy – and I always try to forget that Robson was ever here anyway!

You can clearly see our four top flight peaks. (Hecky's peak will go up at least 2 places next season anyway!).

Bladercoaster:
Bladercoater 2023.jpg



The Bladercoaster highlights our 4 periods in the top division, under Furphy, Bassett, Warnock and Wilder, so I think I’ll run a comparison against the best of each of those years – as shown below. I had to adjust for 42 game seasons by neglecting results against the bottom 2 – so it is a true comparison of results against the Top 19 clubs each season.

Best Top Flight Seasons:
Best Seasons Each Spell.jpg



The above graph shows that the Furphy 1974/75 and Wilder 2019/20 season finishes were the best two – with Bassett 1991/92 pushing them close. However, in true Blades style, those 2 best seasons were immediately followed by our 2 worst seasons – as shown below.

Déjà Vu:
Deja Vu2.jpg



In the interest of keeping that in mind, and not getting too excited if our first year is going well, I will probably run a comparison with the above, to remind us of the best and the worst of earlier times! There’s plenty of room in between those to include a benchmark set of results for a 40-point safety season as well, which I’ll put together once we’ve got the fixture list.

So here we go again –

“When I get to the bottom I go back to the top of the slide - Helter Skelter”.

John Lennon.

UTB & Slava Ukraini
 
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Roller coaster helter skelter - its the Blades way !!
The last graph looks like the one to measure against as well as the likely points to be safe (or get into Europe ? 😂 ) Whats the points needed to be safe from relegation ? is it about 38 - to 40 points ? This season its likely that 34-35 will be enough ? Last season Leeds were safe with 38 but 36 would have been enough.
The season we went down last time - 29 points would have been enough !!
 
Roller coaster helter skelter - its the Blades way !!
The last graph looks like the one to measure against as well as the likely points to be safe (or get into Europe ? 😂 ) Whats the points needed to be safe from relegation ? is it about 38 - to 40 points ? This season its likely that 34-35 will be enough ? Last season Leeds were safe with 38 but 36 would have been enough.
The season we went down last time - 29 points would have been enough !!
Since 1996, when 38 game seasons started, 40 points has been enough to stay up in all but 3 seasons. In 97 Sunderland went down on 40, in 98 Bolton went down on 40 and in 03 Wet Sham went down on 42 (shame!).

So 40 points is a good target but, as you said 29 was enough in 2021 when covid just made it an outrider. 31 in 2010 is the lowest after that and then quite a few 34’s.

I would guess that 34 or 35 will be enough in the current season.

UTB & FTP
 
Fabulous stuff ucdm.

I thought if you lived in the 70’s you didn’t remember them!!

UTB & FTP
 
Since 1996, when 38 game seasons started, 40 points has been enough to stay up in all but 3 seasons. In 97 Sunderland went down on 40, in 98 Bolton went down on 40 and in 03 Wet Sham went down on 42 (shame!).

So 40 points is a good target but, as you said 29 was enough in 2021 when covid just made it an outrider. 31 in 2010 is the lowest after that and then quite a few 34’s.

I would guess that 34 or 35 will be enough in the current season.

UTB & FTP

I've had a look at the 27 seasons since the top flight was reduced to 20 teams in 1995. A few things jump out; firstly the bottom team is getting considerably worse: in the first 5 years the team in 20th picked up an average of 29.3 points but the last 5 have seen that drop to 21.6 points; while the number required for safety has also dropped: 37.8 in the first 5 years to 33.7 for the last 5 years.

1683639124655.png

I projected this season at current PPG and at form over the last 5 extrapolated to the end of the season: both came back at a similar conclusion: Leicester in 18th on 32.6 or 33 points therefore 34 required for safety, almost exactly in line with the previous 4 seasons.

As a result of that I'd speculate that the fabled 40 points is a complete misnomer. In the last 10 seasons, 35 or fewer points has been enough to guarantee safety 7 times, 36 twice and 38 once. A point a game should be more than enough.
 
ucandomagic not doing graphs for new season sir? Or just waiting till we actually register a point first 🥲
 

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