Loan to buy - a strategy forwards?

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bongleblade

bongleblade

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As we all know, we haven't got a barrel of money... and we haven't got much chance of stopping up without serious investment in the playing squad

But this got me thinking... in this modern era of paying for your loaf of bread on Klarna (small personal credit loans for you older folks) ... could we get our PL team together on credit so to speak?

Let's say our transfer spend is limited at 15m ... could this be spent on wages for players on 4x 1 year loans (limited by PL) with some options to buy and 1 year free transfers thrown in?

Estimating wages for 1 year, we could probably go for the likes of:

LCB - Paul Dummett - £1.5m Free Transfer
CB - Reece Oxford - £2m - loan option to buy (Augsburg)
LWB/RWB - Matt Ritchie - £1.5m Free Transfer
CM - Doyle - £2m - loan option to buy (Man City)
CM - Choudhury £2m - loan (Leicester)
ST - Sorloth - £3m - loan option to buy (RB Leipzig)
ST - Pukki - £1.5m - Free transfer

This strategy gives us a good value PL squad (15m), and while there's risks of losing a core of players if relegated, it also gives us a good chance of keeping them if we stay up... and if we go for players similar to the likes of Pukki, Dummett, Chodhury and Ritchie, it's not unrealistic to expect them to stick around if we did go back down to the championship
 

bongleblade said:
As we all know, we haven't got a barrel of money... and we haven't got much chance of stopping up without serious investment in the playing squad

But this got me thinking... in this modern era of paying for your loaf of bread on Klarna (small personal credit loans for you older folks) ... could we get our PL team together on credit so to speak?

Let's say our transfer spend is limited at 15m ... could this be spent on wages for players on 4x 1 year loans (limited by PL) with some options to buy and 1 year free transfers thrown in?

Estimating wages for 1 year, we could probably go for the likes of:

LCB - Paul Dummett - £1.5m Free Transfer
CB - Reece Oxford - £2m - loan option to buy (Augsburg)
LWB/RWB - Matt Ritchie - £1.5m Free Transfer
CM - Doyle - £2m - loan option to buy (Man City)
CM - Choudhury £2m - loan (Leicester)
ST - Sorloth - £3m - loan option to buy (RB Leipzig)
ST - Pukki - £1.5m - Free transfer

This strategy gives us a good value PL squad (15m), and while there's risks of losing a core of players if relegated, it also gives us a good chance of keeping them if we stay up... and if we go for players similar to the likes of Pukki, Dummett, Chodhury and Ritchie, it's not unrealistic to expect them to stick around if we did go back down to the championship
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Are Dummett and Ritchie still at NUFC? Literally not heard of them for years.
 
The OP raises some valid points.

Some varied ages in there of the players which should serve to remind us we can't be too snobbish when it comes to recruitment. Before Brighton were enticing the likes of Caicedo with a development plan or bringing in Mitoma or Enciso as young players who will develop, they were acknowledging the benefit of experience and signing Wellbeck and Lalana, much to derision in some quarters but they have been no doubt important players as much off the field as on it and have contributed to a golden period in their history.

It does also remind you that Newcastle have a few good seasoned PL players who are simply going to be left behind. It is worth keeping an eye on them.

On one hand you have players who are out of contract like Dummett, Clarke, Ritchie and even and on the other you have players such as Fraser who they probably won't find a squad place for so might be convinced to not ask for a fee.

I'd forgotten about Reece Oxford. He played a lot last year but not this. He could possibly cover a few roles if needed.

Either way, it does go to show that there are players out there without a club that could serve a purpose at SUFC. It's not all about getting below 24 year olds that can be sold for profit, some has to be for the here and now. Even players like Karius; yes he made an error in the CL Final once but that doesn't mean he doesn't have some skills.
 
bongleblade said:
As we all know, we haven't got a barrel of money... and we haven't got much chance of stopping up without serious investment in the playing squad

But this got me thinking... in this modern era of paying for your loaf of bread on Klarna (small personal credit loans for you older folks) ... could we get our PL team together on credit so to speak?

Let's say our transfer spend is limited at 15m ... could this be spent on wages for players on 4x 1 year loans (limited by PL) with some options to buy and 1 year free transfers thrown in?

Estimating wages for 1 year, we could probably go for the likes of:

LCB - Paul Dummett - £1.5m Free Transfer
CB - Reece Oxford - £2m - loan option to buy (Augsburg)
LWB/RWB - Matt Ritchie - £1.5m Free Transfer
CM - Doyle - £2m - loan option to buy (Man City)
CM - Choudhury £2m - loan (Leicester)
ST - Sorloth - £3m - loan option to buy (RB Leipzig)
ST - Pukki - £1.5m - Free transfer

This strategy gives us a good value PL squad (15m), and while there's risks of losing a core of players if relegated, it also gives us a good chance of keeping them if we stay up... and if we go for players similar to the likes of Pukki, Dummett, Chodhury and Ritchie, it's not unrealistic to expect them to stick around if we did go back down to the championship
Click to expand...

That's a far too sensible option when it is easier to offer Fleck, Enda, Billy, Norwood,Bsh and Osborn new deals....
 
Reece Oxford has a strange history regarding appearance levels. Form or injury issues??

Signing him would give us a unique claim as a club with history with the two youngest players to debut in the PL!

“Oxford made his competitive, first team debut on 2 July 2015, aged 16, starting in midfield in a 3–0 win against Andorran club Lusitanos in a UEFA Europa League first qualifying round first leg tie. In so doing, he became West Ham's youngest ever player.[13] He then made his Premier League debut on 9 August, playing the first 79 minutes before being substituted for Kevin Nolan as West Ham won 2–0 away to Arsenal. Following his start, Oxford became the second-youngest Premier League starter of all-time, after Jose Baxter.[14]”
 
bongleblade said:
As we all know, we haven't got a barrel of money... and we haven't got much chance of stopping up without serious investment in the playing squad

But this got me thinking... in this modern era of paying for your loaf of bread on Klarna (small personal credit loans for you older folks) ... could we get our PL team together on credit so to speak?

Let's say our transfer spend is limited at 15m ... could this be spent on wages for players on 4x 1 year loans (limited by PL) with some options to buy and 1 year free transfers thrown in?

Estimating wages for 1 year, we could probably go for the likes of:

LCB - Paul Dummett - £1.5m Free Transfer
CB - Reece Oxford - £2m - loan option to buy (Augsburg)
LWB/RWB - Matt Ritchie - £1.5m Free Transfer
CM - Doyle - £2m - loan option to buy (Man City)
CM - Choudhury £2m - loan (Leicester)
ST - Sorloth - £3m - loan option to buy (RB Leipzig)
ST - Pukki - £1.5m - Free transfer

This strategy gives us a good value PL squad (15m), and while there's risks of losing a core of players if relegated, it also gives us a good chance of keeping them if we stay up... and if we go for players similar to the likes of Pukki, Dummett, Chodhury and Ritchie, it's not unrealistic to expect them to stick around if we did go back down to the championship
Click to expand...
We can only have 2 loans at any one time:
www.premierleague.com

How many loans are allowed for Premier League clubs?

Find out how Premier League clubs are limited in the number of players they can bring in on loan from English clubs
www.premierleague.com www.premierleague.com
 
I think we are looking at 2 loans, 2 permanents and 2 free signings.

6 in total which could move to 8 if we can negotiate well on the loans and perms.

8 is a good number of signings IMO
 
There’s also the buy-back option which Liverpool have on Brewster. Not that they’re likely to exercise it.

I have been wondering if that’s the way to prise Tommy Doyle out of Manchester’s hands?
 
People are getting confused between the budget for permanent signings and the budget for loans.

There won't be the same sort of constraints on the loan budget as there is on permanent deals.

If Hecky wants to bring in 4 loans on £100k+ a week each, there's nothing to stop him doing that.
 
bongleblade said:
As we all know, we haven't got a barrel of money... and we haven't got much chance of stopping up without serious investment in the playing squad

But this got me thinking... in this modern era of paying for your loaf of bread on Klarna (small personal credit loans for you older folks) ... could we get our PL team together on credit so to speak?

Let's say our transfer spend is limited at 15m ... could this be spent on wages for players on 4x 1 year loans (limited by PL) with some options to buy and 1 year free transfers thrown in?

Estimating wages for 1 year, we could probably go for the likes of:

LCB - Paul Dummett - £1.5m Free Transfer
CB - Reece Oxford - £2m - loan option to buy (Augsburg)
LWB/RWB - Matt Ritchie - £1.5m Free Transfer
CM - Doyle - £2m - loan option to buy (Man City)
CM - Choudhury £2m - loan (Leicester)
ST - Sorloth - £3m - loan option to buy (RB Leipzig)
ST - Pukki - £1.5m - Free transfer

This strategy gives us a good value PL squad (15m), and while there's risks of losing a core of players if relegated, it also gives us a good chance of keeping them if we stay up... and if we go for players similar to the likes of Pukki, Dummett, Chodhury and Ritchie, it's not unrealistic to expect them to stick around if we did go back down to the championship
Click to expand...
Interesting detail. Hopefully our recruitment team are as well versed.
 
I’ve floated this suggestion previously but I think we’ll have a little more to spend (and therefore write off) for loans. Buy to loan means we get to look at them with a few already agreed. If they play well and would work for us next season, whichever league were in, then you can make them permanent. If not, then you use write off the few million you paid.
Yes it means you waste money by paying slightly over the odds on the total deal but it also means you carry no significant risk of crippling on going cost.
It should also mean you can go for better players as particularly in the European market you could offer big loan fees for higher rated players. Again, you’re potentially paying over the odds, but if you find gold then that’s unlikely and you’d hope you get more success’ than failures.
The loan fees, transfer fees and wages are likely to be separate pots which is also why I think £20m in transfer funds sounds very reasonable if there is a further £10-15m for loan fees.
 

jim2007 said:
There’s also the buy-back option which Liverpool have on Brewster. Not that they’re likely to exercise it.

I have been wondering if that’s the way to prise Tommy Doyle out of Manchester’s hands?
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I don't think City will want Doyle longer-term, I think they'll just want to milk the biggest fee possible out of him now.
 
Flatulent_Bob said:
I’ve floated this suggestion previously but I think we’ll have a little more to spend (and therefore write off) for loans. Buy to loan means we get to look at them with a few already agreed. If they play well and would work for us next season, whichever league were in, then you can make them permanent. If not, then you use write off the few million you paid.
Yes it means you waste money by paying slightly over the odds on the total deal but it also means you carry no significant risk of crippling on going cost.
It should also mean you can go for better players as particularly in the European market you could offer big loan fees for higher rated players. Again, you’re potentially paying over the odds, but if you find gold then that’s unlikely and you’d hope you get more success’ than failures.
The loan fees, transfer fees and wages are likely to be separate pots which is also why I think £20m in transfer funds sounds very reasonable if there is a further £10-15m for loan fees.
Click to expand...

In terms of costs management, it makes sense. But the downside is the manager has to rebuild the team each season.
 
BalticBlade said:
In terms of costs management, it makes sense. But the downside is the manager has to rebuild the team each season.
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Yes, but if a loan to buy is factored in you take who’s proven themselves worthy of the fee and cut the rest loose. You would hope from 7 potential loans you get at least 4 right else there’s a problem in your scouting. You’re not losing everyone who’s come in and been part of the team, in fact you’re strengthening year on year, this way it’s with known variables because you’ve had them in and around the squad for a 9 months. Try before you buy but you have to pay slightly more for that safety net in the initial loan fee. It’s not like there’s nothing for perms if the right player comes up, unless you believe Andy of course.
If we had agreed this sort of deal last season for Doyle as we had for Khardra we’d all be pretty pleased with the result.
 
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BalticBlade said:
People are getting confused between the budget for permanent signings and the budget for loans.

There won't be the same sort of constraints on the loan budget as there is on permanent deals.

If Hecky wants to bring in 4 loans on £100k+ a week each, there's nothing to stop him doing that.
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Whilst I agree that loans are slightly different because they are essentially a 1 season financial commitment, the budget for the club will be the budget for the club. I imagine it will be down to Hecky how he carves this up, unless the board has gone all Kevin McCabe on us and is insisting that they won't fund permanent transfers.

If we buy someone then we have to consider the cash and the P&L impact of this. Cash will be wages plus transfer instalments over the period of the contract, but with the potential that we can sell them on during their contract if required (and if they're any good!). The P&L side will be the wages plus amortisation over the length of the contract. Both need to be manageable within a 3 year budget, with scenarios for staying up and going down factored in.

In my opinion if we go down the short term route too heavily, then we're fucked. If we go down the permanent route in the same way we did last time with expensive, but pretty shit players, we're fucked.

It will be interesting to see how we proceed this time. I'd imagine a small-ish transfer budget with the scope for loans to fill the squad out. Free transfers will be few and far between, particularly ones who will actually impact us on the pitch (see Rodwell, Jags, Ravel etc.).
 
Champagneblade said:
Foreign loans don't count to this quota.

Also on the OP, Choudhury is out of contract according to Transfermarkt. Both his loan and his contract at his parent club expire this summer unless they didn't update their records.
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He's not, transfermarkt is just a bit ropey on contracts. Watford have an option to buy this summer.
 
bongleblade said:
It’s 4x loans at a time, 2x from PL clubs which mustn't be from the same club
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It's 4x loans from Premier League clubs over an entire season but only 2 at once and no more than 1 from an individual club:

  • Premier League clubs may not register more than two players on loan at any one time.
  • The maximum number of loans registrable in the same season is four, and, under no circumstances, shall more than one be from the same club at any one time.

So you could borrow Doyle (Man C) and Kelleher (Liverpool) until January, then you could borrow McAtee (Man C) and Jones (Liverpool) but you'd need to send back the first two. You couldn't have Doyle and McAtee or Jones and Kelleher at once as they are from the same club. It does sound like you could loan two from Leicester if they went down, without issue.

You could however loan from overseas without limit.
 
brownblade said:
He's not, transfermarkt is just a bit ropey on contracts. Watford have an option to buy this summer.
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They do. But if a PL club comes knocking I doubt he'll forego that chance to stick with basket case fc.
 
Champagneblade said:
It's 4x loans from Premier League clubs over an entire season but only 2 at once and no more than 1 from an individual club:

  • Premier League clubs may not register more than two players on loan at any one time.
  • The maximum number of loans registrable in the same season is four, and, under no circumstances, shall more than one be from the same club at any one time.

So you could borrow Doyle (Man C) and Kelleher (Liverpool) until January, then you could borrow McAtee (Man C) and Jones (Liverpool) but you'd need to send back the first two. You couldn't have Doyle and McAtee or Jones and Kelleher at once as they are from the same club. It does sound like you could loan two from Leicester if they went down, without issue.

You could however loan from overseas without limit.
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oh i had different info:

Regarding other restrictions, new loan rules were introduced ahead of the 2019/20 season by the Premier League. Here they are:

  • Clubs may not register more than two players on loan at any one time from other Premier Legaue clubs.
  • The maximum number of loans registrable in the same season is four, and, under no circumstances, shall more than one be from the same club at any one time.
  • Premier League clubs cannot loan to another Premier League club a player they have acquired in the same transfer window.
  • A Premier League club may loan not more than one of its goalkeepers to another Premier League club.
But is that just for PL loans?
 
bongleblade said:
oh i had different info:

Regarding other restrictions, new loan rules were introduced ahead of the 2019/20 season by the Premier League. Here they are:

  • Clubs may not register more than two players on loan at any one time from other Premier Legaue clubs.
  • The maximum number of loans registrable in the same season is four, and, under no circumstances, shall more than one be from the same club at any one time.
  • Premier League clubs cannot loan to another Premier League club a player they have acquired in the same transfer window.
  • A Premier League club may loan not more than one of its goalkeepers to another Premier League club.
But is that just for PL loans?
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I took it from the link you provided 😁

It also states "there are restrictions on how many players Premier League clubs can loan from other Premier League/English clubs."

This insinuates you also cannot loan more than two from any English club. Though specifically state PL club when referring to loaning from the same. Loaning two from a relegated Leicester doesn't impact the integrity the same as the influence of loaning two from City, especially as they would be unavailable vs City. So to me, this makes sense.

But you look overseas and there are plenty of players loaned across associations which makes it believable that there would be quite a few on offer in that space, especially from associations who lack decent tv deals and perhaps would rather obtain a loan fee and not pay the wages of a potential bit part player.
 
derekacorah said:
Whilst I agree that loans are slightly different because they are essentially a 1 season financial commitment, the budget for the club will be the budget for the club. I imagine it will be down to Hecky how he carves this up, unless the board has gone all Kevin McCabe on us and is insisting that they won't fund permanent transfers.

If we buy someone then we have to consider the cash and the P&L impact of this. Cash will be wages plus transfer instalments over the period of the contract, but with the potential that we can sell them on during their contract if required (and if they're any good!). The P&L side will be the wages plus amortisation over the length of the contract. Both need to be manageable within a 3 year budget, with scenarios for staying up and going down factored in.

In my opinion if we go down the short term route too heavily, then we're fucked. If we go down the permanent route in the same way we did last time with expensive, but pretty shit players, we're fucked.

It will be interesting to see how we proceed this time. I'd imagine a small-ish transfer budget with the scope for loans to fill the squad out. Free transfers will be few and far between, particularly ones who will actually impact us on the pitch (see Rodwell, Jags, Ravel etc.).
Click to expand...
Agreed - damned if you do etc

I would spend the budget on a couple of players who offer a profit on resale, which will cost more of course - Doyle etc, and then use the freebies and loans to flesh out the squad.

A couple from the free pot, and Im been realistic as Firmino, Zaha and Tielemans are on it!

Amartey, CB, 28, £21k pw Leicester
Lokonga, CM, 23, £45k pw Arsenal
Davies, CM, 24, £25k pw Everton
Nelson, RW, 23, £15k pw Arsenal
Van Hecke, CB, 22, £5k pw, Brighton

Not suggesting these are world beaters, if they were they wouldnt be on the market, but better than Fleck, Osborn, Stevens etc, and Amartey aside right age

I would also be looking at NUFC, they are reported to have a £100m pot, that means some decent prem players will get marginalised - Almiron, Dubravka, Targett.

If you look at this season
Anel, Doyle, McAtee, Clark, Khadra
I would say thats 3.5 out of 5 success rate (Clark seemed ok prior to injury)

Gotta trust the team to do it again...........

If we lost no one, added Macca, Dubravka and AN Other on loan, bought Doyle and signed Davies, Nelson and Van Hecke Id go with that
 

Champagneblade said:
I took it from the link you provided 😁

It also states "there are restrictions on how many players Premier League clubs can loan from other Premier League/English clubs."

This insinuates you also cannot loan more than two from any English club. Though specifically state PL club when referring to loaning from the same. Loaning two from a relegated Leicester doesn't impact the integrity the same as the influence of loaning two from City, especially as they would be unavailable vs City. So to me, this makes sense.

But you look overseas and there are plenty of players loaned across associations which makes it believable that there would be quite a few on offer in that space, especially from associations who lack decent tv deals and perhaps would rather obtain a loan fee and not pay the wages of a potential bit part player.
Click to expand...
haha oops

that makes sense though!
 
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